Prof. Dr. Frank Steinicke (Professor für Mensch-Computer-Interaktion, Universität Hamburg): Riding the wave of Exponential Innovation – Elephants do not eat mice, but cheetahs eat gnus
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Riding the Wave of Exponential Innovation
1. Human-Computer Interaction, Universität Hamburg
Prof. Dr. Frank Steinicke
Riding the Wave of Exponential Innovation
Elephants do not eat mice, but cheetahs eat gnus
12. 12
Invention Refinement & Augmentation Traction
Time
W. Buxton: The Long Nose of Innovation, Businessweek, 2008
15-25 years
13. Long Nose
13
Invention Refinement & Augmentation Traction
Time
W. Buxton: The Long Nose of Innovation, Businessweek, 2008
15-25 years
Growthofanidea
14. Long Nose
14
Invention Refinement & Augmentation Traction
Growthofanidea
Time
Radar
W. Buxton: The Long Nose of Innovation, Businessweek, 2008
15-25 years
15.
16. Long Nose
16
Invention Refinement & Augmentation Traction
Growthofanidea
Time
Radar
W. Buxton: The Long Nose of Innovation, Businessweek, 2008
15-25 years
Incremental Innovation
18. Long Nose
18
Invention Refinement & Augmentation Traction
Growthofanidea
Time
Radar
W. Buxton: The Long Nose of Innovation, Businessweek, 2008
15-25 years
Incremental Innovation
?
26. Exponential Growth
Example
26W.A. Wagenaar, S.D. Sagaria: Misperception of exponential growth, Perception & Psychophysics, 1975
Year # index
1971 2,300
1972 3,500
1974 4,500
1976 8,500
1978 29,000
• Group 1: How large will the index be in 1989?
• Group 2: In which year will the index surpass 275,000?
27. 27
Gordon E. Moore
“With unit cost falling as the
number of components per
circuit rises, by 1975
economics may dictate
squeezing as many as
65,000 components on a
single silicon chip.”
43. 43
Invention Refinement & Augmentation Traction
Growthofanidea
Time
Radar
W. Buxton: The Long Nose of Innovation, Businessweek, 2008
15-25 years
Incremental Innovation
DisruptiveInnovation
Exponential Innovation
44. Exponential Innovation
To avoid death, we should focus on
incremental innovation by refining existing
technologies, as much as on disruptive
innovation by novel creation and research.
This ability is at the heart of exponential
innovation.
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