How to strengthen the EU NDC? Understanding the impact of sector-based polici...
Was bedeutet Paris für die Energiewende in Deutschland?
1. 11. Deutscher Energiekongress - Energiewirtschaft im Wandel – Kann sich die
Branche neu erfinden?
6. und 7. September 2016 in München (Hilton Munich Park)
Prof. Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@newclimate.org
Was bedeutet Paris für
den Klimaschutz und die
Energiewende?
3. Global
1,5/2°C: Temperaturanstieg auf „weit unter 2°C“
begrenzen und „Anstrengungen unternehmen“, ihn auf
1,5°C zu begrenzen
Ausstieg aus Treibhausgasemissionen: Globale
Emissionen sollen in der zweiten Hälfte des
Jahrhunderts Netto-Null erreichen
National
Nationale Beiträge: Alle Länder reichen regelmäßig
nationale Beiträge ein
Steigerung: Beiträge werden sukzessive erhöht bis die
globalen Ziele erreicht sind
www.newclimate.org 3
Ambition von Paris
5. Nationale Beiträge reichen nicht aus
Source: Climate Action Tracker update, 8 December 2015
http://climateactiontracker.org/news/253/Climate-pledges-will-bring-2.7C-of-warming-potential-for-more-action.html
Su
Con
185
IND
imp
aro
a lik
res
IND
full
war
disc
glo
only 0.4% of global emissio
global emissions as “mediu
Conditional elements of IN
1.5 and 2°Cby roughly 2.8 G
Taking into consideration
more ambitious (4.6-7.8 Gt
benefits. For limiting warm
be closed by 20-34%.
5
6. Globaler Klimaschutz weltweit
erhält durch Paris Schub
(Fast) alle Länder der Welt haben Beiträge für Pariser
Abkommen vorgelegt - ein Durchbruch in den internationalen
Klimaverhandlungen
Unternehmen setzen auf Klimaschutz:
• 2500 Unternehmen und Investoren haben sich Klimaschutzziele
gesetzt
• 614 Unternehmen haben Ziele die 1.5/2°C kompatibel sind
o 100% erneuerbare Energie: Coca Cola, IKEA, Microsoft, Nike, Unilever,...
Städte und Regionen haben sich Klimaschutzziele gesetzt
• >2500 Städte
• 167 Regionen (Schottland: 100% erneuerbare Energien bis 2020)
www.newclimate.org 6
7. Globale Initiativen sind vielfältig und
zum Teil ambitioniert
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Emissions(GtCO2e/a)
Year
CP min CP max
initiatives min initiatives max
INDC 2025 INDC 2030
SunShot Initiative
US Wind Program
SEII
EWI
GFEI
UIC
SEAD
GBPN
C40
Under 2 MOU
GCFTF
Bonn Challenge / NYD
GACC
GMI
CCAC
RE100
Caring for Climate
Power
Transport
Buildings
Cities / regions
Forestry
Non-CO2
Business
Quelle: Graichen, Healy, Siemons, Höhne, Kuramochi, Gonzales-Zuñiga, Sterl, Kersting, Wachsmuth, 2016: Climate initiatives, national contributions and the Paris
Agreement: https://newclimate.org/2016/05/23/climate-initiatives-national-contributions-and-the-paris-agreement/
www.newclimate.org
8. Globale Initiativen sind vielfältig und
zum Teil ambitioniert
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Emissions(GtCO2e/a)
Year
CP min CP max
initiatives min initiatives max
INDC 2025 INDC 2030
SunShot Initiative
US Wind Program
SEII
EWI
GFEI
UIC
SEAD
GBPN
C40
Under 2 MOU
GCFTF
Bonn Challenge / NYD
GACC
GMI
CCAC
RE100
Caring for Climate
Power
Transport
Buildings
Cities / regions
Forestry
Non-CO2
Business
9 GtCO2e
Wenn die Initiativen ihr Ziel erreichen
und nicht Anstrengungen anderswo ersetzen
Quelle: Graichen, Healy, Siemons, Höhne, Kuramochi, Gonzales-Zuñiga, Sterl, Kersting, Wachsmuth, 2016: Climate initiatives, national contributions and the Paris
Agreement: https://newclimate.org/2016/05/23/climate-initiatives-national-contributions-and-the-paris-agreement/
www.newclimate.org
10. Beispielhaftes 2°C Szenario
www.newclimate.org 10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
GlobaleTHGEmissioneninGtCO2e
CO2 aus
Energienutzung und
Industrie
CO2 aus Wald und Böden
Nicht-CO2
Datenquelle: Markerszenario RCP 2.6 vom IPCC, RCP scenario database
http://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at:8787/RcpDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=download
11. Zeitpunkt an dem globale Treibhausgas-
Emissionen null erreichen
www.newclimate.org 11
2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
CO2 aus Energienutzung
Alle THG
Median25. Perzentil 75. Perzentil
Wahrscheinliches
Eintreten des
Temperatur-
anstiegs unter
2°C
Szenarien mit
negativen
Emissionen
CO2 Budget ohne negative Emissionen
CO2 aus Energienutzung
Alle THGMittlere Chance
des Temperatur-
anstiegs unter
1,5°C
Szenarien mit
negativen
Emissionen
CO2 Budget ohne negative Emissionen
Quelle: http://newclimate.org/2016/02/23/what-does-the-paris-agreement-mean-for-climate-protection-in-germany/
12. Zeitpunkt an dem globale Treibhausgas-
Emissionen null erreichen
www.newclimate.org 12
2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
CO2 aus Energienutzung
Alle THG
Median25. Perzentil 75. Perzentil
Wahrscheinliches
Eintreten des
Temperatur-
anstiegs unter
2°C
Szenarien mit
negativen
Emissionen
CO2 Budget ohne negative Emissionen
CO2 aus Energienutzung
Alle THGMittlere Chance
des Temperatur-
anstiegs unter
1,5°C
Szenarien mit
negativen
Emissionen
CO2 Budget ohne negative Emissionen
Quelle: http://newclimate.org/2016/02/23/what-does-the-paris-agreement-mean-for-climate-protection-in-germany/
*: Gilt für Emissionen aus Energienutzung, Industrie sowie Land- und Forstwritschaft
*
13. Zeitpunkt an dem globale Treibhausgas-
Emissionen null erreichen
www.newclimate.org 13
2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
CO2 aus Energienutzung
Alle THG
Median25. Perzentil 75. Perzentil
Wahrscheinliches
Eintreten des
Temperatur-
anstiegs unter
2°C
Szenarien mit
negativen
Emissionen
CO2 Budget ohne negative Emissionen
CO2 aus Energienutzung
Alle THGMittlere Chance
des Temperatur-
anstiegs unter
1,5°C
Szenarien mit
negativen
Emissionen
CO2 Budget ohne negative Emissionen
Quelle: http://newclimate.org/2016/02/23/what-does-the-paris-agreement-mean-for-climate-protection-in-germany/
*: Gilt für Emissionen aus Energienutzung, Industrie sowie Land- und Forstwirtschaft
*
*
14. Zeitpunkt an dem globale Treibhausgas-
Emissionen null erreichen
www.newclimate.org 14
2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
CO2 aus Energienutzung
Alle THG
Median25. Perzentil 75. Perzentil
Wahrscheinliches
Eintreten des
Temperatur-
anstiegs unter
2°C
Szenarien mit
negativen
Emissionen
CO2 Budget ohne negative Emissionen
CO2 aus Energienutzung
Alle THGMittlere Chance
des Temperatur-
anstiegs unter
1,5°C
Szenarien mit
negativen
Emissionen
CO2 Budget ohne negative Emissionen
Quelle: http://newclimate.org/2016/02/23/what-does-the-paris-agreement-mean-for-climate-protection-in-germany/
*: Gilt für Emissionen aus Energienutzung, Industrie sowie Land- und Forstwirtschaft
*
*
Paris-konform ohne
negative Emissionen
1.5°C Weit
unter
2°C
2°C
15. Zeitpunkt an dem globale Treibhausgas-
Emissionen null erreichen
www.newclimate.org 15
2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
CO2 aus Energienutzung
Alle THG
Median25. Perzentil 75. Perzentil
Wahrscheinliches
Eintreten des
Temperatur-
anstiegs unter
2°C
Szenarien mit
negativen
Emissionen
CO2 Budget ohne negative Emissionen
CO2 aus Energienutzung
Alle THGMittlere Chance
des Temperatur-
anstiegs unter
1,5°C
Szenarien mit
negativen
Emissionen
CO2 Budget ohne negative Emissionen
Quelle: http://newclimate.org/2016/02/23/what-does-the-paris-agreement-mean-for-climate-protection-in-germany/
*: Gilt für Emissionen aus Energienutzung, Industrie sowie Land- und Forstwirtschaft
*
*
Paris-konform ohne
negative Emissionen
1.5°C Weit
unter
2°C
2°C
Paris-konform mit
negativen Emissionen1.5°C Weit
unter
2°C
2°C
16. 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
AnteilderErneuerbarenam
Primärenergieverbrauch(%)
Jahr
Greenpeace
BMU Leitszenario
WWF
Innovationsszenario
Aktuelle-Politik-Szenario
Energiewende-Szenario
Deep Decarbonisation
Pathway Project
1,5°C Anforderung
Anteil der erneuerbaren Energien am
Energiemix in Deutschand
www.newclimate.org 16
Ziele der
Regierung:
30% bis 2030
45% bis 2040
60% bis 2050
Quelle: http://newclimate.org/2016/02/23/what-does-the-paris-agreement-mean-for-climate-protection-in-germany/
Global Paris-konform ohne
negative Emissionen
1.5°C Weit
unter
2°C
Global Paris-konform mit
negativen Emissionen
1.5°C
Weit unter
2°C
17. Anteil der erneuerbaren Energien am
Strommix in Deutschand
www.newclimate.org 17
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
AnteilderErneuerbarenanderStromerzeugung(%)
Jahr
Greenpeace
BMU Leitszenario
WWF Innovationszenario
Aktuelle-Politik-Szenario
Energiewende-Szenario
Deep Decarbonisation
Pathway Project
1,5°C Anforderung
Quelle: http://newclimate.org/2016/02/23/what-does-the-paris-agreement-mean-for-climate-protection-in-germany/
Ziele der
Regierung:
50% bis 2030
65% bis 2040
80% bis 2050
Global Paris-konform ohne
negative Emissionen
1.5°C Weit
unter 2°C
Global Paris-konform mit
negativen Emissionen
1.5°C
Weit unter 2°C
18. Anteil der Kohle an der Stromerzeugung in
Deutschand
www.newclimate.org 18
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
AnteilvonKohle(ohneCCS)ander
Stromproduktion(%)
Jahr
Greenpeace
BMU Leitszenario
WWF Innovationszenario
Aktuelle-Politik-Szenario
Energiewende-Szenario
Deep Decarbonisation
Pathway Project
1,5°C Anforderung
Quelle: http://newclimate.org/2016/02/23/what-does-the-paris-agreement-mean-for-climate-protection-in-germany/
Global Paris-konform ohne
negative Emissionen
1.5°C Weit unter
2°C Global Paris-konform mit
negativen Emissionen
1.5°C
Weit unter 2°C
19. Mobilität
Deutschland weit hinter den Anforderungen zurück
Andere Länder sind ambitionierter
• Norwegen und Niederlande streben 100% Elektroauto-
Neuanmeldungen ab 2025 an
• China und USA setzen hohe Förderungen für Elektroautos um
www.newclimate.org 19
Themenbereich / Sektor Indikator
Ziel der
Bundesregierung
Herausforderung
2°C Ziel
Herausforderung
1.5°C Ziel nach
Pariser Abkommen
Mobilität
Verkehrsvermeidung und
-verlagerung: Reduktion
des Individualverkehrs
./. (Individualverkehr
nimmt zu)
Reduktion des
Individualverkehrs
spätestens ab 2015-
2030
Reduktion des
Individualverkehrs
um etwa 10% pro
Dekade
Anteil an PKW ohne
Verbrennungsmotor, z.B.
Elektromotor
6 Mio in 2030 = etwa
14%
23% in 2030
100% in 2050 - 2060
100% vor 2035,
d.h. 100%
Neuanmeldungen ab
2025
20. Gebäude
25 Aug 2016 www.newclimate.org 20
Themenbereich / Sektor Indikator
Ziel der
Bundesregierung
Herausforderung
2°C Ziel
Herausforderung
1.5°C Ziel nach
Pariser Abkommen
Gebäude
Jährliche Rate für
energetische Sanierung
von Gebäuden
1% 2%-3,5% 5%
100% „Nahe Null-Energiehäuser“ im Neubau ab 2020
Erheblich schnellere energetischer Sanierung nötig
22. Fazit
Um die Ziele von Paris einzuhalten, müsste die deutsche
Energiewende erheblich beschleunigt werden:
• Null CO2-Emissionen vor dem Jahr 2035 (strikte Auslegung) oder vor
2055/65 (großzügige Auslegung mit Wette auf Entfernung von CO2
aus der Atmosphäre)
• Schnellerer Ausbau von erneuerbaren Energien als derzeit geplant
• Schnellerer Ausbau der Elektromobilität als bisher geplant (in strikter
Auslegung keine Neuanmeldung von PKW mit Verbrennungsmotoren
ab 2025)
• Erheblich schnellere energetische Sanierung des Gebäudebestands
Globaler Klimaschutz hat auf allen Ebenen durch Paris neuen
Schub erhalten
Deutschland/EU läuft Gefahr, Vorreiterrolle zu verlieren
www.newclimate.org 22
24. Herausforderung für Deutschand
07/09/2016 www.newclimate.org 24
Themenbereich / Sektor Indikator
Ziel der
Bundesregierung
Herausforderung
2°C Ziel
Herausforderung
1.5°C Ziel nach
Pariser Abkommen
Treibhausgasemissionen
aus Energienutzung
Zeitpunkt zu dem
Emissionen aus
Energienutzung null
erreichen müssen
./. 2050-2060 vor 2035
Erneuerbare Energien
Anteil der erneuerbaren
Energien am
Gesamtenergiemix
30% bis 2030
45% bis 2040
60% bis 2050
100% in 2050 bis
2060
100% vor 2035
Anteil der erneuerbaren
Energien am Strommix
50% bis 2030
65% bis 2040
80% bis 2050
100% bis 2050 100% vor 2030
Stromerzeugung mit
fossilen Brennstoffen
Zeitpunkt zu dem
Emissionen aus
Kohleverstromung null
erreichen müssen
./. 2040 / 2050 etwa 2025
Zeitpunkt zu dem
Emissionen aus
Stromerzeugung aus
Erdgas null erreichen
müssen
./. 2050 vor 2030
25. Herausforderung für Deutschand
07/09/2016 www.newclimate.org 25
Themenbereich / Sektor Indikator
Ziel der
Bundesregierung
Herausforderung
2°C Ziel
Herausforderung
1.5°C Ziel nach
Pariser Abkommen
Mobilität
Verkehrsvermeidung und
-verlagerung: Reduktion
des Individualverkehrs
./. (Individualverkehr
nimmt zu)
Reduktion des
Individualverkehrs
spätestens ab 2015-
2030
Reduktion des
Individualverkehrs
um etwa 10% pro
Dekade
Anteil an PKW ohne
Verbrennungsmotor, z.B.
Elektromotor
6 Mio in 2030 = etwa
14%
23% in 2030
100% in 2050 - 2060
100% vor 2035
Gebäude
Jährliche Rate für
energetische Sanierung
von Gebäuden
1% 2%-3,5% 5%
Industrie
Zeitpunkt zu dem
Emissionen aus
Energienutzung null
erreichen müssen
./. 2050-2060 vor 2035
Land- und Forstwirtschaft
Reduktion der Netto-Emissionen auf ein
technisch mögliches Minimum
26. Timing of zero emissions
Source: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/105007/pdf
27. Necessary reductions presented in IPCC
report 2007 influenced national target
setting
Table explained in
• den Elzen, M.G. J., Höhne, N., 2008. Reductions of greenhouse gas emissions in Annex I and non-Annex I countries for
meeting concentration stabilisation targets. An editorial comment. Climatic Change, 91, 249–274.
• den Elzen, M.G. J., Höhne, N., 2010. Sharing the reduction effort to limit global warming to 2°C. Climate Policy, 10, 247–
260.
EU: -80% to -95%
Germany: -80% to -95%
USA: -80%
Japan: -25% (repealed)
Norway: -40% (conditional)
NL: court case
28. Determining future GHG emission
reduction targets
Höhne, N., Den Elzen, M., & Escalante, D. (2014). Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort
sharing: a comparison of studies. Climate Policy, 14(1), 122-147.
29. Suggested targets in 2030
compatible with 2°C
Source: IPCC AR5 WGIII, figure 6.28. Based on Höhne, N., Den Elzen, M., & Escalante, D. (2014). Regional GHG
reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies. Climate Policy, 14(1), 122-147.
30. Suggested targets in 2050
Source: IPCC AR5 WGIII, figure 6.29. Based on Höhne, N., Den Elzen, M., & Escalante, D. (2014). Regional GHG
reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies. Climate Policy, 14(1), 122-147.
-80% to -95% for 2°C
-90% to -100% for 1.5°C
Hinweis der Redaktion
This slide shows how different gases from different sources must be reduced to keep to 2 degree compatible pathways. This default representation of the IPCC’s RCP 2.6 scenario assumes that some non-CO2 emissions and emissions from forestry would not be phased out by 2100 because that is technically not feasible or would be far more costly. For example, it is very difficult to reduce methane emissions from animals and rice fields to zero . This means that emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels must be reduced earlier. In this representation CO2 emissions from fossil fuels reach zero at around 2070 and are then assumed to be negative (i.e. taking CO2 out of the atmosphere).
CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry cannot be compensated for by a phase out from forestry– both must reduce at the same time.
Non-CO2 gases means the following gases methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases
While more research is needed, existing scenarios show that it is technically and economically feasible to reduce emissions to zero for roughly 90% of current sources of GHG emissions with technological options that are available today and in the near future. A nearly complete phase-out of net emissions by 2050 is possible with additional innovation and offsetting residual emissions by sinks. A net phase-out by 2050 would ensure a very high likelihood of meeting the agreed 2°C goal and a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C by the end of the century.
The energy system represents the largest source of emissions, but CO2 emissions can also arise from other sources, primarily from human use of land and land use change. This includes carbon emissions from deforestation and, to a smaller degree, agriculture.
This slide shows how different gases from different sources must be reduced to keep to 2 degree compatible pathways. This default representation of the IPCC’s RCP 2.6 scenario assumes that some non-CO2 emissions and emissions from forestry would not be phased out by 2100 because that is technically not feasible or would be far more costly. For example, it is very difficult to reduce methane emissions from animals and rice fields to zero . This means that emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels must be reduced earlier. In this representation CO2 emissions from fossil fuels reach zero at around 2070 and are then assumed to be negative (i.e. taking CO2 out of the atmosphere).
CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry cannot be compensated for by a phase out from forestry– both must reduce at the same time.
Non-CO2 gases means the following gases methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases
While more research is needed, existing scenarios show that it is technically and economically feasible to reduce emissions to zero for roughly 90% of current sources of GHG emissions with technological options that are available today and in the near future. A nearly complete phase-out of net emissions by 2050 is possible with additional innovation and offsetting residual emissions by sinks. A net phase-out by 2050 would ensure a very high likelihood of meeting the agreed 2°C goal and a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C by the end of the century.
The energy system represents the largest source of emissions, but CO2 emissions can also arise from other sources, primarily from human use of land and land use change. This includes carbon emissions from deforestation and, to a smaller degree, agriculture.
This slide shows how different gases from different sources must be reduced to keep to 2 degree compatible pathways. This default representation of the IPCC’s RCP 2.6 scenario assumes that some non-CO2 emissions and emissions from forestry would not be phased out by 2100 because that is technically not feasible or would be far more costly. For example, it is very difficult to reduce methane emissions from animals and rice fields to zero . This means that emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels must be reduced earlier. In this representation CO2 emissions from fossil fuels reach zero at around 2070 and are then assumed to be negative (i.e. taking CO2 out of the atmosphere).
CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry cannot be compensated for by a phase out from forestry– both must reduce at the same time.
Non-CO2 gases means the following gases methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases
While more research is needed, existing scenarios show that it is technically and economically feasible to reduce emissions to zero for roughly 90% of current sources of GHG emissions with technological options that are available today and in the near future. A nearly complete phase-out of net emissions by 2050 is possible with additional innovation and offsetting residual emissions by sinks. A net phase-out by 2050 would ensure a very high likelihood of meeting the agreed 2°C goal and a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C by the end of the century.
The energy system represents the largest source of emissions, but CO2 emissions can also arise from other sources, primarily from human use of land and land use change. This includes carbon emissions from deforestation and, to a smaller degree, agriculture.
This slide shows how different gases from different sources must be reduced to keep to 2 degree compatible pathways. This default representation of the IPCC’s RCP 2.6 scenario assumes that some non-CO2 emissions and emissions from forestry would not be phased out by 2100 because that is technically not feasible or would be far more costly. For example, it is very difficult to reduce methane emissions from animals and rice fields to zero . This means that emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels must be reduced earlier. In this representation CO2 emissions from fossil fuels reach zero at around 2070 and are then assumed to be negative (i.e. taking CO2 out of the atmosphere).
CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry cannot be compensated for by a phase out from forestry– both must reduce at the same time.
Non-CO2 gases means the following gases methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases
While more research is needed, existing scenarios show that it is technically and economically feasible to reduce emissions to zero for roughly 90% of current sources of GHG emissions with technological options that are available today and in the near future. A nearly complete phase-out of net emissions by 2050 is possible with additional innovation and offsetting residual emissions by sinks. A net phase-out by 2050 would ensure a very high likelihood of meeting the agreed 2°C goal and a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C by the end of the century.
The energy system represents the largest source of emissions, but CO2 emissions can also arise from other sources, primarily from human use of land and land use change. This includes carbon emissions from deforestation and, to a smaller degree, agriculture.
This slide shows how different gases from different sources must be reduced to keep to 2 degree compatible pathways. This default representation of the IPCC’s RCP 2.6 scenario assumes that some non-CO2 emissions and emissions from forestry would not be phased out by 2100 because that is technically not feasible or would be far more costly. For example, it is very difficult to reduce methane emissions from animals and rice fields to zero . This means that emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels must be reduced earlier. In this representation CO2 emissions from fossil fuels reach zero at around 2070 and are then assumed to be negative (i.e. taking CO2 out of the atmosphere).
CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry cannot be compensated for by a phase out from forestry– both must reduce at the same time.
Non-CO2 gases means the following gases methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases
While more research is needed, existing scenarios show that it is technically and economically feasible to reduce emissions to zero for roughly 90% of current sources of GHG emissions with technological options that are available today and in the near future. A nearly complete phase-out of net emissions by 2050 is possible with additional innovation and offsetting residual emissions by sinks. A net phase-out by 2050 would ensure a very high likelihood of meeting the agreed 2°C goal and a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C by the end of the century.
The energy system represents the largest source of emissions, but CO2 emissions can also arise from other sources, primarily from human use of land and land use change. This includes carbon emissions from deforestation and, to a smaller degree, agriculture.
This slide shows how different gases from different sources must be reduced to keep to 2 degree compatible pathways. This default representation of the IPCC’s RCP 2.6 scenario assumes that some non-CO2 emissions and emissions from forestry would not be phased out by 2100 because that is technically not feasible or would be far more costly. For example, it is very difficult to reduce methane emissions from animals and rice fields to zero . This means that emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels must be reduced earlier. In this representation CO2 emissions from fossil fuels reach zero at around 2070 and are then assumed to be negative (i.e. taking CO2 out of the atmosphere).
CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry cannot be compensated for by a phase out from forestry– both must reduce at the same time.
Non-CO2 gases means the following gases methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases
While more research is needed, existing scenarios show that it is technically and economically feasible to reduce emissions to zero for roughly 90% of current sources of GHG emissions with technological options that are available today and in the near future. A nearly complete phase-out of net emissions by 2050 is possible with additional innovation and offsetting residual emissions by sinks. A net phase-out by 2050 would ensure a very high likelihood of meeting the agreed 2°C goal and a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C by the end of the century.
The energy system represents the largest source of emissions, but CO2 emissions can also arise from other sources, primarily from human use of land and land use change. This includes carbon emissions from deforestation and, to a smaller degree, agriculture.
This slide shows how different gases from different sources must be reduced to keep to 2 degree compatible pathways. This default representation of the IPCC’s RCP 2.6 scenario assumes that some non-CO2 emissions and emissions from forestry would not be phased out by 2100 because that is technically not feasible or would be far more costly. For example, it is very difficult to reduce methane emissions from animals and rice fields to zero . This means that emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels must be reduced earlier. In this representation CO2 emissions from fossil fuels reach zero at around 2070 and are then assumed to be negative (i.e. taking CO2 out of the atmosphere).
CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry cannot be compensated for by a phase out from forestry– both must reduce at the same time.
Non-CO2 gases means the following gases methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases
While more research is needed, existing scenarios show that it is technically and economically feasible to reduce emissions to zero for roughly 90% of current sources of GHG emissions with technological options that are available today and in the near future. A nearly complete phase-out of net emissions by 2050 is possible with additional innovation and offsetting residual emissions by sinks. A net phase-out by 2050 would ensure a very high likelihood of meeting the agreed 2°C goal and a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C by the end of the century.
The energy system represents the largest source of emissions, but CO2 emissions can also arise from other sources, primarily from human use of land and land use change. This includes carbon emissions from deforestation and, to a smaller degree, agriculture.
This slide shows how different gases from different sources must be reduced to keep to 2 degree compatible pathways. This default representation of the IPCC’s RCP 2.6 scenario assumes that some non-CO2 emissions and emissions from forestry would not be phased out by 2100 because that is technically not feasible or would be far more costly. For example, it is very difficult to reduce methane emissions from animals and rice fields to zero . This means that emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels must be reduced earlier. In this representation CO2 emissions from fossil fuels reach zero at around 2070 and are then assumed to be negative (i.e. taking CO2 out of the atmosphere).
CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry cannot be compensated for by a phase out from forestry– both must reduce at the same time.
Non-CO2 gases means the following gases methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases
While more research is needed, existing scenarios show that it is technically and economically feasible to reduce emissions to zero for roughly 90% of current sources of GHG emissions with technological options that are available today and in the near future. A nearly complete phase-out of net emissions by 2050 is possible with additional innovation and offsetting residual emissions by sinks. A net phase-out by 2050 would ensure a very high likelihood of meeting the agreed 2°C goal and a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C by the end of the century.
The energy system represents the largest source of emissions, but CO2 emissions can also arise from other sources, primarily from human use of land and land use change. This includes carbon emissions from deforestation and, to a smaller degree, agriculture.
This slide shows how different gases from different sources must be reduced to keep to 2 degree compatible pathways. This default representation of the IPCC’s RCP 2.6 scenario assumes that some non-CO2 emissions and emissions from forestry would not be phased out by 2100 because that is technically not feasible or would be far more costly. For example, it is very difficult to reduce methane emissions from animals and rice fields to zero . This means that emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels must be reduced earlier. In this representation CO2 emissions from fossil fuels reach zero at around 2070 and are then assumed to be negative (i.e. taking CO2 out of the atmosphere).
CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry cannot be compensated for by a phase out from forestry– both must reduce at the same time.
Non-CO2 gases means the following gases methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases
While more research is needed, existing scenarios show that it is technically and economically feasible to reduce emissions to zero for roughly 90% of current sources of GHG emissions with technological options that are available today and in the near future. A nearly complete phase-out of net emissions by 2050 is possible with additional innovation and offsetting residual emissions by sinks. A net phase-out by 2050 would ensure a very high likelihood of meeting the agreed 2°C goal and a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C by the end of the century.
The energy system represents the largest source of emissions, but CO2 emissions can also arise from other sources, primarily from human use of land and land use change. This includes carbon emissions from deforestation and, to a smaller degree, agriculture.
This slide shows how different gases from different sources must be reduced to keep to 2 degree compatible pathways. This default representation of the IPCC’s RCP 2.6 scenario assumes that some non-CO2 emissions and emissions from forestry would not be phased out by 2100 because that is technically not feasible or would be far more costly. For example, it is very difficult to reduce methane emissions from animals and rice fields to zero . This means that emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels must be reduced earlier. In this representation CO2 emissions from fossil fuels reach zero at around 2070 and are then assumed to be negative (i.e. taking CO2 out of the atmosphere).
CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry cannot be compensated for by a phase out from forestry– both must reduce at the same time.
Non-CO2 gases means the following gases methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases
While more research is needed, existing scenarios show that it is technically and economically feasible to reduce emissions to zero for roughly 90% of current sources of GHG emissions with technological options that are available today and in the near future. A nearly complete phase-out of net emissions by 2050 is possible with additional innovation and offsetting residual emissions by sinks. A net phase-out by 2050 would ensure a very high likelihood of meeting the agreed 2°C goal and a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C by the end of the century.
The energy system represents the largest source of emissions, but CO2 emissions can also arise from other sources, primarily from human use of land and land use change. This includes carbon emissions from deforestation and, to a smaller degree, agriculture.
This slide shows how different gases from different sources must be reduced to keep to 2 degree compatible pathways. This default representation of the IPCC’s RCP 2.6 scenario assumes that some non-CO2 emissions and emissions from forestry would not be phased out by 2100 because that is technically not feasible or would be far more costly. For example, it is very difficult to reduce methane emissions from animals and rice fields to zero . This means that emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels must be reduced earlier. In this representation CO2 emissions from fossil fuels reach zero at around 2070 and are then assumed to be negative (i.e. taking CO2 out of the atmosphere).
CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry cannot be compensated for by a phase out from forestry– both must reduce at the same time.
Non-CO2 gases means the following gases methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases
While more research is needed, existing scenarios show that it is technically and economically feasible to reduce emissions to zero for roughly 90% of current sources of GHG emissions with technological options that are available today and in the near future. A nearly complete phase-out of net emissions by 2050 is possible with additional innovation and offsetting residual emissions by sinks. A net phase-out by 2050 would ensure a very high likelihood of meeting the agreed 2°C goal and a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C by the end of the century.
The energy system represents the largest source of emissions, but CO2 emissions can also arise from other sources, primarily from human use of land and land use change. This includes carbon emissions from deforestation and, to a smaller degree, agriculture.