Elizabeth Bernold, Consultant @ FehrAdvice AG and Member of the Zurich Behavioral Economics Network. Lecture about measuring the influence of parental involvement, and the particular aspect theorie of on students' educational success, in order to develop relevant and effective performance-improving interventions.

1. Children’s Skills and Human Welfare
Elizabeth Bernold
3 December 2014

2. Why do we care so much about children’s academic performance?
Educational Performance and Economic Growth (Full Sample)
Source: OECD 2010; The High Cost of Low Educational Performance:
The Long-Run Economic Impact of Improving PISA Outcomes
FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 2
Conditional Growth
Conditional PISA Test Score

3. FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 3
We might hypothesize that quantity of schooling is responsible for better
performance and then higher economic growth…
Conditional Growth Conditional Years of Schooling

4. 1: Yes, absolutely
2: Yes, I think so
3: I don’t know
4: No, I don’t think so
17%
12%
59%
10%
FehrAdvice & Partners AG, September 2014 4
What do you think?
What do you think: Does having more school lead to more economic growth?
5: Definitely not
2%

5. FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 5
We might hypothesize that quantity of schooling is responsible for better
performance and then higher economic growth…
Conditional Growth Conditional Years of Schooling
Adapted from Hanushek & Woessmann (2008), “The Role of Cognitive Skills in Economic Development”

6. FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 6
Inequality in test scores is a troublingly-strong predictor of lifetime earnings
inequality
Earnings Inequality
Test Score Inequality

7. FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 7
New important questions arise from these three figures
? What is driving these test scores?
Can these drivers be used as
leverage points to systematically
improve economic welfare?
?

8. FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14
A model summarizes the five primary factors that drive a student’s educational
success
8
Institutions
and
resources
Incentives
(social,
financial)
Parents
and Family
Societal Well-
Being
Ability

9. Perry Preschool Program provides a long term look at an intervention for at-risk kids
FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 9
The program:
§ 158 randomly selected 3 & 4 year old poor black
children with low IQ
§ 2 years, 5 days a week, 2½ hours in the morning
§ 90-minute home visits once a week
§ Examination of individuals for 40 years
Source: Schweinhart, et al. (2005)

10. How did the Perry Preschool Program affect IQ?
FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 10
100
95
90
85
80
75
IQ
The Effect of the Perry Preschool Program on IQ
Measured by Age-Specific Measures
Source: Schweinhart, et al. (2005)

11. Perry Preschool Program provides a long term look at an intervention for at-risk kids
FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 11
The program:
§ 158 randomly selected 3 & 4 year old poor black
children with low IQ
§ 2 years, 5 days a week, 2½ hours in the morning
§ 90-minute home visits once a week
§ Examination of individuals for 40 years
After 35 years, the preschool graduates…
Source: Schweinhart, et al. (2005)
…were more likely to have graduated from high
school
…had higher earnings
…were more likely to be married
…had committed fewer crimes

12. FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14
An individual’s ability plays a central role in the likelihood with which they will
be academically successful
12
Institutions
and
resources
Incentives
(social,
financial)
Parents
and Family
Societal Well-
Being
Ability

13. FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 13
An individual’s ability plays a central role in the likelihood with which they will
be academically successful
Ability
Ability
Cognitive skills
and abilities
Ability
Non-cognitive
skills
and abilities
§ Reading
§ Writing
§ Arithmetic
§ Problem solving
§ Patience, self-control
§ Intrinsic motivation
§ Willingness to help
§ Conscientiousness
Source: 1Segal 2011; 2 Burks et al. 2008

14. 1: I don’t want to wait
2: I would wait 2 minutes
3: I don’t know – I don’t have a phone
4: I can easily wait about 15 minutes
17%
12%
59%
10%
FehrAdvice & Partners AG, September 2014 14
What do you think?
How long would you wait to use your phone again?
5: No matter what, I would wait until the end of this event
2%

15. Perry Preschool Program provides a long term look at an intervention for at-risk kids
FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 15
The program:
§ 158 randomly selected 3 & 4 year old poor black
children with low IQ
§ 2 years, 5 days a week, 2½ hours in the morning
§ 90-minute home visits once a week
§ Examination of individuals for 40 years
After 35 years, the preschool graduates…
Source: Schweinhart, et al. (2005)
…were more likely to have graduated from high
school
…had higher earnings
…were more likely to be married
…had committed fewer crimes

16. Non-cognitive skills can be meaningfully measured, even in young children
FehrAdvice Source: Stanford Marshmallow Experiment: Walter Mischel & Partners AG, December 14 16

17. Non-cognitive skills can be meaningfully measured, even in young children
FehrAdvice Source: Stanford Marshmallow Experiment: Walter Mischel & Partners AG, December 14 17

18. The Academic Diligence Task: “the marshmallow test for the digital age”
Do math Play Game
o 14
o 1
o 13
o 4
“what do
you want
to do?”
FehrAdvice Source: The academic diligence task (ADT): assessing individual differences in effort on tedious but important & Partners AG, December 14 18
schoolwork, Galla, Plumer, White (2014)

19. A wide array of interventions are dedicated to systematically improving non-cognitive
skills: at home and at school
FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 19
Mary and Sam
Let your child hold the book. Ask
what it is about. Follow the words
with your finger as you read.
Source: York, Loeb (2014). One Step at a Time: The Effects of an Early Literacy Text Messaging
Program for Parents of Preschoolers

20. $1 invested in education à $7
return
(Belfield et al. JHR 2006)
Investing in preschool-aged
children yields a 7-10 % higher
rate of return
When can we achieve the “most bang for our buck” in education-based
investments?
FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14
Per Annum Returns to a Unit Dollar Invested
Age at Intervention
Heckman, J. J. (2008). Schools, Skills and Synapses. Economic Inquiry. 20

21. FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14
Interventions are seen to successfully leverage all five components of the model,
using behavioral economics fundamentals
21
Institutions
and
resources
Incentives
(social,
financial)
Parents
and Family
Societal Well-
Being
Ability
Improve teachers’
incentive structures
(Fryer et al. 2012)
Develop parents’
skills at building
cognitive and non-cognitive
skills
(York, Loeb 2014)
Manage
parents’ (and
thereby students’)
beliefs of the
benefits of skill
development and
educational
achievement
Systematically
develop non-cognitive
skills
(Fehr & Schunk,
ongoing, Mischel and
Duckworth, ongoing)
Adapt the timing of
financial rewards
to educational
performance
(Levitt et al. 2012)
Reframe at-risk
students’
perceptions of
their role in
society and at
school
(ideas42 2014)

22. Thank you for your attention!
FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 22

23. Contact
Elizabeth Bernold
Consultant
Bergstrasse 114
8032 Zürich
elizabeth.bernold@fehradvice.com
@ebernold
www.fehradvice.com
FehrAdvice & Partners AG
FehrAdvice & Partners AG, December 14 23