Online radio germany-webradio_monitor_2011_goldmedia

Online radio in Germany
Web Radio Monitor 2011

Commissioned by the Bavarian Regulatory Authority for
Commercial Broadcasting – BLM
July 2011

Goldmedia GmbH
Strategy Consulting

Dr. Klaus Goldhammer,
Dr. Michael Schmid, Christine Link
Oranienburger Str. 27, 10117 Berlin, Germany
Tel. +49 30-246 266-0, Fax +49 30-246 266-66
info[at]Goldmedia.com

Contents
1. Introduction
2. The German online radio market
3. Use and scope of online radios
4. Mobile usage
5. Social media
6. Advertisement and marketing
7. Trends and forecasts
8. Executive summary
(Please note: longer version in German includes more information on regulations,
legal costs, advertisement, and marketing)
2

Research objectives and methodology
Client and objectives Methodology Response rates
Client:  Project time frame:
 Goldmedia‟s study on the use of April to July 2011 +
German online radio was  Primary data research
produced for the second time through survey of all German 3,064
for the Bavarian Regulatory online radio providers
Authority for Commercial (n=3,064 ) via online and
Broadcasting (BLM) offline questionnaires
Study objectives:  Response: 791 completed
 Give overview of the German questionnaires (28%)
online radio market  Survey period: May 23, 2011
 Quantify online radio market in – June 28, 2011
Germany through survey of all  15 Interviews with industry
providers experts and representatives
791
 Provide market analyses and  Secondary data through
forecasts for online radio in online desk research
Germany  Forecasts via top-down and
 Categorisation of German bottom-up analyses
sent responded
online radio stations by genre  www.webradiomonitor.de Aussand Geantwortet
and type of service Response Rates Web Radio Monitor 2011

3

Contents
1. Introduction
4. Mobile usage
5. Social media

4

Value chain for online radio in Germany:
market players (examples)
Value chain: online radio in Germany 2011

Licensing Content Aggregation Distribution Sales End device User

 GEMA  FM Broadcasters  Online radio  Streaming  Radio  Smartphones
 GVL  Online-only aggregators Provider marketers  Online radio
stations  Webradio  Internet Service  Special receiver
 Personalised Networks Provider marketers for  Computer
services online radio

Source: Goldmedia Web Radio Monitor 2011

5

About 3,100 German online radio stations in
2011, rapid annual growth of 47% since 2006
Online radios in Germany, 2006 to end of 2011 Summary
3500 3,064 250
 3,064 online radios in Germany (04/2011)
3000 2,692
207% 200
2500  Ø annual growth of 47% since 2006
1,914 150
2000 1,600  Online-only stations make up 4/5 of total stations
1500 100
1000 41%  High churn rate – in both 2009 and 2010, about
450 521 20% 50 650 internet radio stations were discontinued
500 14%
0 16% 0  FM subbrands were also affected
2006 2007 2008 04/2009 04/2010 04/2011
number webradios
Zahl der Webradios growth year on year
Wachstum im Vergleich zum Vorjahr
Source: Goldmedia Web Radio Monitor 2009 - 2011, ALM
Jahrbuch
Number of German online radios by service German online radios by type of provider
type (04/2011) (04/2011)
User
2,563 Generated
Content
0,41%
Online-
Subbrands Online-Only
FM Streams
5% 84%

342
150 9
Simulcast
Streams
Online Only Simulcast sub-brand personalized 11%
Online-Only Simulcast Online-Submarke Personalis.
online fm services/UGC
UKW Dienste/UGC

6

Online radio offers great variety: more oldies, rock,
dance, jazz, hip hop, and news
Format comparison: commercial FM broadcasters and online radios in Germany (4/2011)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Online-only
AC CHR Oldies Info Rock
streams*
(2,563 stations) 50% 17% 9% 5% 4%

Online FM sub-
brands AC CHR Oldies Info Rock Other Jazz DanceBlack
(150 stations) 20% 16% 13% 5% 15% 6% 8% 9% 6%

Commercial
FM radio AC CHR Oldies Rock Dance
(342 stations) 44% 7% 18% 10% 12%

AC
AC CHR
CHR Oldies/Schlager
Oldies/Hits Informationen/Talk
Information/Talk Rock Sonstiges
Other MOR
MOR Jazz
Jazz Klassik
Classical Dance
Dance Black Music
Black Music

* Without aggregators and user generated content. Source: Goldmedia Web Radio Monitor 2011, n=3,064

7

Contents
1. Introduction
4. Mobile usage
5. Social Media

8

Strong growth for maximum number of hits,
only slight growth for average hits
Maximum usage of selected online radios
Ø Hits/Day 2010 vs. 2011
(daily Ø 2009-2011)
2010 2011

450.000 Ø : 7,800 Ø : 8,904
Hits/Day/Station Hits/Day/Station
400.000

350.000 Live Online-only 15,572
streaming services
300.000 13,502

250.000
9,419
200.000 8,150
140,000 6,464
150.000

100.000
2,007
50.000 20,000 10,000
0
Simulcast Online Online Only
Simulcast Online Online Only
Streams Subbrands FM Streams Streams Subbrands FM Streams
April 2009 April 2010 April 2011 April 2010 April 2011
Average daily hits per radio station according to their stations
Source: Goldmedia Web Radio Monitor 2011, n=791,2010 n=609 and Web Radio Monitor 2009 n = 143,

9

Satisfaction with view numbers drop compared to
2010, mainly disappointed FM web radio
Webradio hits Conclusions

“How satisfied are you with your online  52 percent of German webradio-
radio access figures?” organizers are contented with the
52% 62% 51% hits(cp. 2010: 56 % - four percent)
18% 13% 18%  In comparison to 2010, fall of
very dissatisfied
Sehr unzufrieden satisfaction with FM radio and
34% 49% 33%
Eher unzufrieden
Online Only
rather dissatisfied
Neutral
neutral
 Particularly the group of in 2010
29% 30% “very satisfied” FM and Sub-brands
19%
Eher zufrieden
13%
rather satisfied
providers greatly reduced with 17
16% 17%
Sehr zufrieden
very satisfied percent
1 2 3
Total FM Online only  Greater dissatisfaction as an
indication of dissatisfaction with
Comparison: “Satisfied”* with on call pay 2010 and the fact that the medium can
2011 achieve their own web radio in the
62
UKW
FM differentiated universe difficult the
72 2011
desired attention
52 2010
Online Only
Online only 53

*“Very satisfied“ and „rather satisfied“ with on call pay
Source: Goldmedia Web Radio Monitor 2011, n=791, Web Radio Monitor 2010, n = 609

10

Germany vs. abroad: Only 12 percent of online
radio hits come from abroad
Use of German web radio stations by region (04/2011)

Online Only
Online Only 88.6% 11.4%

UKW
FM 81.0% 19.0%

Total
Gesamt 88.0% 12.0%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Abrufe aus Deutschland
Hits from Germany Abrufe aus Ausland
Hits from abroad
Source: Goldmedia Web Radio Monitor 2011, n=791

11

Fathead market: 90% of the schedules are generated
by 5% of the online radios that responded!

Relationship between the range and market share for a recorded day in April 2011

16.000.000
16 million
Relation between online radios and hits
14 million
14.000.000 Online radios 2011 Hits 2011
Other
Hits during one day in April 2011

12 million
12.000.000 responding
online radios
Other 10%
10 million
10.000.000 Top 41 Top 41 online
responding
online radios online radios radios
8.000.000
8 million 50% of 95% 5% 90%
the market
6 million
6.000.000

4 million
4.000.000
90% of
2.000.000
2 million
the market
0
0
1 51 101 151
After retrieving sorted streams Source: Goldmedia Web Radio Monitor 2011, n=791

12

Usage during the day: Online radio is
mainly listened in the evening
Use of FM radio and online radio during the day (04/2011)
35.000 35%

31.176
Example: 31% of all daily
online radio station hits take 30%
30.000 place between 18:00 and 30%
27.791
21:00.
25.054
24.090 24%
25.000 25%
21.93421.56322.294

Share of coverage in percent
20.930 20.011
19.831 19.001
18.199
Coverage (ma)

20.000 20%
21%
16% 16%

15.000 14% 17% 15%
16% 13.685
10%
9.121
10.000 10%
11% 6.811
9%
wide-reaching promotional support
Werbeträger-Reichweite (ma Radio)* 3.464
5.000 5%
6% FM radio stations
UKW-Webradiosender 2.183 1.690
5% 1.079
Online Radio
Online Only
0 0%
05.00-06.00 07.00-08.00 09.00-10.00 11.00-12.00 13.00-14.00 15.00-16.00 17.00-18.00 19.00-20.00 21.00-22.00 23.00-24.00
Uhr Uhr Uhr Uhr Uhr Uhr Uhr Uhr Uhr Uhr

* ma 2011 Radio I, figures in thousands
Source: ma 2011 Radio I, Goldmedia Web Radio Monitor 2011, n=791,

13

Alternative retrieval routes to gain importance:
social media and aggregators are the drivers
Various access channels’ shares of hits from 2010 to 2013
Key facts
(percentage of hits)
 Currently, almost three
Open internet 62.2% quarters of the hits on
Aggregators 15.0% iRadio services are made
2013
Social media 16.0% on their own
Other routes 7.2% homepages
 In the coming years, the
Open internet 64.2% importance of social
Aggregators 14.3% media will increase.
2012
Social media 15.4%  Advantage of
Other routes 6.6%
aggregators: their
simplified overview and
Open internet 68.3% structure help users
2011
Aggregators 13.2% with selection in an
Social media 13.0% increasingly
Other routes 5.8% differentiated market
Webradio
Open internet 72.3% It‟s important for
Aggregators 12.6%
2010 broadcasters to be
Social media 9.5%
Other routes 5.4% accessible via all
channels

14

Contents

1. Introduction
4. Mobile usage
5. Social Media

15

Three quarters of online radio broadcasters believe
“Online
radio will
that mobile broadcasting will grow more important
be able to
establish
Assessment of mobile usageon
itself Industry assessment of mobile online radio
mobile end
devices in  72 percent of broadcasters surveyed
particular expect to see mobile radio become more
(e.g. popular, especially on mobile devices (4
72% 88% 71% iPhone).” perc. point increase compared to 68% in
2% 0% 3%
2% 12% 2% 2010)
23% 25% not applicable
trifft überhaupt nicht  Radio broadcasters are offering more and
zu
32%
sometimes inaccurate
more iPhone online radio applications.
trifft eher nicht zu
35% 35%
 BUT: So far, mobile ranges are only 12%
neutral
neutral of total usage
partially accurate
trifft eher zu
 FM broadcasters are very optimistic
56%
37% 36%
regarding mobile usage. 88% believe
fully applicable
trifft voll zu mobile online radio holds potential
Total FM Online only  Online-only providers are more optimistic
Gesamt UKW Online Only regarding the potential of mobile than
Comparison 2010 and 2011 they were in 2010
trifft eher
Partially accurate
2011 35% 37%
72%zu  UMTS successor LTE technology allows
2010
data rates of 150 Mbit/s or more, which
34% 34% Fully voll zu
trifft applicable
68% will benefit applications such as online
radio

16

2011: Mobile usage at 12% - providers and
experts expect to rise 50% in 2015
Proportion of total use of mobile usage / month in% (2011)

15
14.0% UKW & UKW
FM & FM Sub-
14 Submarken
Brands
13.0%
13 12.4%
12 Online Only
Online Only
10.5% 12.2%
11
Percent

9.8%
10
10.1% Gesamt
Total
9
7.5% 7.6%
8
7 6.9%
7.3%
6 6.7%
5
Jan 10 Apr 10 Jul 10 Oct 10
Okt 10 Jan 11 Apr 11


Key facts
 Experts believe mobile usage will increase by at least 50% over the next five years. Some
providers have achieved an increase of this magnitude in 2011.
 The primary reasons are greater smartphone penetration, increasing bandwidth, decreasing
costs, and development efforts in the automotive industry.
17

Mobile apps are widespread: almost 80% of FM
simulcast stations offer apps
Share of radio stations with mobile apps (2011) Industry assessment of apps

0% 50% 100% „In the future, mobile apps will be
of increasing importance for online
Total
Total
Total
+ 2% radio providers."
Gesamt 31.4% 68.6%
74% 89% 72%
4% 3% 4%
9% not applicable
trifft überhaupt
+ 5.3% 22% 23% nicht zu
UKW FM sub-brands
& Submarken 77.4% 22.6%
40% sometimesnicht
trifft eher
inaccurate
zu
34% 33%
+ 3% neutral
neutral
Online Only
Online only 28.8% 71.2%
49% partially accurate
trifft eher zu
40% 39%
App vorhanden
App available keine App vorhanden
App not available
fully applicable
trifft voll zu
Source: Goldmedia Web Radio Monitor 2011, n=791, 1
Total 2
FM Online only
3
increase compared to Web Radio Monitor 2010, n=609

Key facts
 Importance of mobile apps from nearly four-fifths of the FM providers implemented
 Apps are becoming more important for online-only providers too. (Compared to 2010: a total
of 68% of online-only providers attributed increasing importance to apps.)
 Experts also see significant growth potential for web radio in the area of mobile apps
18

Webradio apps in 2011: operators are active in
all operating systems and end devices
Online-radio supported operating Webradio supported end devices for
systems for apps in 2011 apps in 2011
Blackberry/
RIM
Nokia; 7.9%
12.5% Palm
3.6%
Android
Apple iOS Sony
23.2% Ericsson
35.0% Apple
22.5% 9.6%

Samsung
Symbian 12.9%
13.0%

Sonstiges
Other HTC LG
Sonstiges
Other 2,9% 12.1% 7.9%
Windows 2.9 %
5,1%
5.1 %
23.7%
Motorola
8.2%


Key facts
 2011 saw more than a third (35%) of internet radio apps on Apple, and just under a quarter on
both Windows and Android (23.7 and 23.2 percent, respectively)
 Apple is the leader in terms of end devices too. In 2011, 22.5% of apps were made for the
iPhone, iPad, and other Apple devices, with Samsung, Nokia, and HTC following
19

Market overview for smartphones and tablets:
approximately 10 million smartphones will be sold in 2011
Sales of smart phones and tablets in Germany Market breakdown by numbers
2009-2012 in millions in 2010

Netbooks
20
17.6
54 8%
16 +76% % Tablets
10
% Turnover:
12 10 2011: 0.8 billion
28
8
7.2 +39% %
2012:1 billion

5.4 Desktop
+34% Notebooks PCs
4 +72% 2.2
0.8 1.5 Source: BITKOM 2011, EITO
+47%
0 +88%
Smartphone sales in Germany
2009 2010 2011* 2012** 2009-2011 in billions of euros
Smartphones Tablets
2,5 2,2
 Growth trend in the smartphone segment remains unchanged. In 2011, 2 1,6 +35%
sales increased by 39% to 10 million units sold 1,3
1,5
 In 2012, one in four Germans will have a smartphone +27%
1 +81%
 Tablet market continues to grow - notebooks and netbooks have lost market
0,5
share
* Forecast BITKOM 0
** Forecast TNS Infratest
Source: BITKOM 2011 after EITO, IDATE and TNS Infratest Go Smart 2012 Study Both forecasts 2009 2010 2011
are based on the population of people in Germany
Source: BITKOM 2011, EITO, IDATE

20

Contents

1. Introduction
4. Mobile usage
5. Social media

21

Social media strategy for communication and
image necessary even for online radio stations
Assessment Social Media Findings

“A social media strategy is essential to the success of  About 60 percent of online radios
online radio offerings.” believe that presence on social
59% 66% 58% media is essential
2% 6% 2%  Social networks are mainly used to
7% 6%
relay program info and various
11%
activities / competitions for specific
32% 17% 34% trifft überhaupt programs. “If you aren„t on social
not applicable
nicht zu networks, you don„t exist!”

trifft eherinaccurate
 Radio use on Facebook or other
sometimes nicht zu
networking apps remains weak.
30% 43% 28% Potential for "social radio" is
neutral
neutral
currently considered rather
moderate by service providers and
trifft eher zu
partially accurate experts
29% 30%
23%  Nevertheless, FM stations in
trifftapplicable
fully voll zu particular are planning to increase
their presence and add a player on
1 2
Gesamt UKW Online3Only Facebook

Contents

1. Introduction
4. Mobile usage
5. Social media

23

One in four internet radio operators is satisfied
with the profitability of its service -- still?
Online radio profitability in 2011 Conclusion
“How satisfied are you with your online radio’s  A total of 25 percent of web radio stations
access figures?” are satisfied with profitability of their
service
25% 16% 27%  FM broadcasters‟ satisfaction with
9% 8%
17%
Sehr unzufrieden
profitability decreased significantly
18% 17% Very satisfied
compared to 2010, to only 16 percent (see
25% Eher unzufrieden
Rather saitsfied 2009: 28 percent). For online-only
48% 48% Neutral
services, the satisfaction rate by 3
Neutral
42% percentage points
Eher zufrieden
Rather dissatisfied
16% 17%  There was a slight, overall decrease in
12% Sehr zufrieden
9% 4% 10% Very dissatisfied
satisfaction from 2010 to 2011, in contrast
Total
Gesamt FM
UKW OnlineOnly
Online only
to the period from 2009 to 2010, which
saw and increase in the satisfaction rate
Comparison 2010 and 2011 from 19% to 27%
2011 16% 9% 25%  That does not mean that the operators are
generally dissatisfied in 2011: Rather, the
2010 17% 10% 27% proportion of "neutral" respondents ranged
Rather satisfied
eher zufrieden from 42% to 48% – especially for FM
2009 7% 12% 19% operators (2010: 26%, 2011: 42%)
Very zufrieden
sehr satisfied

24

Market volume is mainly generated by traditional
(display) online advertisement by FM brands
Share of online advertising revenue according to ad format and service type (2010)

By advertising format By channel type
Stations/
platforms not
including FM
Spot broadcasters
advertising
Classical / 31%
Other online
FM radio
advertising
stations
69%
71%
Base: 10.3 mil. euros
turnover (netto) 2010

Source: Goldmedia Web Radio Monitor 2011

Conclusions
 About three-quarters of revenues are now generated through traditional online advertising (including display /
banner ads). Spot advertising remains underdeveloped
 Advertising on homepages is the greatest contributor to revenues
 To date, FM stations‟ ad services have dominated. Among the online-only services, portals and online radio
aggregators are particularly strong

25

Importance of display advertising is declining, but sponsor-
ship & spot advertising are becoming more important
Forms of advertising available among web radio providers
Conclusion
surveyed (2011)

60.2%  Display
Displaywerbung
Display advertising 64.5% advertisement is still
60.6%
the most important
43.3%
Sponsoring 53.6% ad form for online
Sponsorship
42.3% radios (60.2 %)
Online- 37.7%
Online advertising spot 40.7%  Comparison: in
Spotwerbung 38.8% 2010, 74% of online
Suchwortvermarkt 33.9%
Search term marketing 20.8% radio providers used
ung 35.5% Gesamt
Total + display advertising
28.6%
Affiliate Marketing
Affiliate marketing 37.0%  Sponsorship (43.3%),
29.7% UKW &
FM subbrands audio spots (37.7%),
20.9% Submarken and SEO (33.9%) are
Pre-roll spot
Pre-Roll-Spot 36.0%
20.1% Onlineonly the next most
Online Only
19.7% common forms of
In-Text-Werbung 12.5%
In-text ads advertising on online
20.1%
15.4% radios
Online-Video-
Online video advertising 32.0%
Werbung 14.7%

26

Three fifths of online radio providers see great
potential for spot marketing
Commercial marketing for online radio Industry estimates
" There is still considerable growth potential in the ad
market for pure online radio offerings ."  70% of online radio operators
see significant growth potential
for the online-only spot market
70% 76% 70%  At 76%, FM radio providers are
4% 3% 4%
3% 6% 3% trifft überhaupt
Strongly agree
15% nicht zu significantly more optimistic
22% 22%
trifft eher nicht zu
Agree
than online only providers –
24% 70% of online-only providers
27% 28% neutral
Neutral see considerable growth
potential in commercial
trifft eher zu
52%
Disagree somewhat marketing
43% 42%
trifft voll zu
Strongly disagree
 Opportunities for innovative
radio / online combinations
Total FM Online only
Gesamt UKW Online Only have increased further
Comparison of 2010 und 2011
 Spot advertising will
2011 27% 43% 70% increasingly be used in
trifft eher zu
More accurate combination with other
trifftapplicable
Fully voll zu advertising media such as
2010 23% 42% 65% display advertising, etc.

27

Contents

1. Introduction
4. Mobile usage
5. Social media

28

Forecast for 2012: in addition to advertising revenue,
increased funding through alternative revenue streams
Share of online radio revenues in total sales 2010-2012 (all providers) *

0.9%
2012 57.4% 41.7%
1.9%
2011 60.9% 37.2%
2.8%
2010 61.8% 35.3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Netto-Werbeerlöse
Net advertising revenues Kostenpflichtige
Paid services Dienste Sonstige Erlöse
Other revenues

*Values are averages, percentages of the responding stations without weighting by sales, with other smaller providers, so that lower sales are over-represented.
Source: Goldmedia Web Radio Monitor 2011, n = 791

Conclusion
 Particularly for small online radio stations, alternative forms of revenue such as donations and sponsors are
important
 Major online-only players are successful in marketing their own players or other individual business models /
customer relationships
 A look at just FM providers reveals that ads currently provide 100% of financing, so paid content isn‟t a
feasible alternative to ad revenue, even in the coming years
29

Online advertising revenues in 2010: EUR 10.3
million (display, commercial, sponsoring, ...)
Advertising revenue (net) for all German online radio
Assumptions / Background
services in Germany up to 2015
CAGR:
40  Basis: Webradiomonitor
10-15
37.2 Mio. euro 2010/2011, forecast for
broadband development
29%
according to BNetzA, trend
30 Case
Best case extrapolation / procedural
Net revenue in millions of €

Szenario
scenario analogy, and expert interviews
25.9 mil. 20%  Growth over the previous
euros Worst case year was 20%
20 Trend
 To date, FM broadcasters‟
Szenario
scenario
platforms have generated the
21.6 mil. euros 16% most sales
Trend Case
Worst  Online-only broadcasters
10
Szenario
scenario and aggregators have
10.3 mil. driven sales growth most
euros  Growth for online radio should
0 be significant; we forcast
Forecast
growth of 16-29% per year,
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
depending on the scenario
Source: Goldmedia forecast Web Radio Monitor 2011, CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate

30

Contents
1. Introduction
4. Mobile usage
5. Social media

32

Executive summary
Online radio  Germany has a total of 3,064 web radio stations (04/2011)
market in  Four-fifths of services are online-only channels (2009: ¾)
Germany  Since 2006, services grew by 47%; a more moderate 14% since 2010

Use  Average of 8,904 hits per stream per day (maximum 500,000) (FM stations alone
Ø 15,572, online-only channels alone Ø only 8,150 hits)
 Average hits increased by 14 percent since 2010
 Use: online-only stations are used most often in the evening, FM subbrands‟ usage
reflects traditional radio use more closely
 Web radio is often used in parallel to surf the Internet

Advertising /  Online advertising revenue for all German online radio stations in 2010 totaled
10.3 million euros (including display advertising, commercials, etc.)
Marketing
 Display advertising is still the most important form of advertising for online radio
after sponsorship, spot ads, and search term marketing
 Advertising on FM stations‟ and online portals‟ homepages is the biggest source of
revenue
 Two thirds of web radio providers say that audio spots have the highest growth
potential in the coming years

33

Executive summary
 Of all services, 31% could be used via mobile apps
Mobile
 Proportion of total mobile use Ø 12.4 percent
 Almost 80% of FM stations & nearly 30% of online-only stations have their
own apps
 Market outlook: mobile will be one of the strongest growth drivers

Social media  Nearly two-thirds of all web radio providers believe a social media strategy is
essential, because providers get additional hits from social networks and
aggregators. Direct visits to the homepage are relatively insignificant
 Social Web has great potential for commercialization and providers, because
the fixed costs are relatively low compared to above the line and attention
can be generated for free

Other trends /
proceeds  About half of online radio providers believe pay radio is infeasible
 Paid content only conceivable as part of premium services, ad-free streaming,
and exclusive information services
 Alternative sources of revenue are becoming more important, like the sale of
software, players, and on-demand music streaming services

34

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