A lean investor tells you why to love the problem and not the solution - Fredi Schmidli @ Lean Startup Bern

Fredi
Schmidli
Bern,
12.
Januar,
2017
A Lean Investor tells you, why to love
the Problem and not the Solution
Lean Startup Bern
Meetup
fredi@pragmatic-‐solutions.ch

http://www.slideshare.net/pragmaticsolutions
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2fredi@pragmatic-‐solutions.ch12.01.2017

Fredi Schmidli
• Economist
and
BA
• Management
Teams
in
various
functions
• Entrepreneur
• Business
Angel
and
Boardmember:
www.startangels.ch
• Partner
at
pragmatic
solutions
• Community
Builder:
meetup.com/Lean-‐startup-‐Zurich/

THE LEAN INVESTOR:
MAKE LOTS OF LITTLE
BETS. EXPECT MOST TO
FAIL.
Dave
Mc Clure @http://500.co

Goal:
To improve the success rate
Source:
Ash
Maurya «Running Lean»
• Develop
product
in
half
the
time
and
at
half
the
cost
(GE)
• Reduce
failure:
“wrong”
product
and
“premature”
scaling

Lean Innovation Framework

Problem Solution Fit => Value
Problem
Solution
Fit
You
validated
with
MVP
and

prospects
that
a
specific
solution
will

solve
a
known
problem
to
such
a

degree
that
customer
will
buy
it.

Brant
Cooper
Value
assumption
– test
whether
a

product
or
service
really
delivers

value
to
specific
customers
once

using
it.

Scale
Product

Market

fit
Problem

Solution

fit
Customer

Discovery
Customer

Validation
Customer

Creation
Is
the
identified
problem
real?

Will
the
target
customer
pay?

Can
the
problem
be
solved?


From Idea to Problem/Solution Fit
8
Source:
Ash
fredi@pragmatic-‐solutions.ch12.01.2017

Key Principle
Get out of the
building and 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Lean Canvas (by Ash Maurya / adapted from Osterwalder)

Why Lean Innovation?
See:
http://practicetrumpstheory.com/2012/02/why-‐lean-‐canvas/

The 3 Phases of Customer Development
12
Source: Ash Maurya, Scaling Lean
What happens here?

Source:
Ash
Workshop,
2015

Persona Development & Segmentation
understand
the “whys” by
looking at the
customers
behaviors
15
Facts
Factual
information

about
your
target

customer
Pain
State
the
problem
you

believe
your
target

customers
have,
that
your

solutions
solves
Behavior
Existing
behavior
they

exhibit
now,
because
they

don’t
have
your
solution
Goals
What
goals
are
they

trying
to
accomplish
with

their
behavior,
that
your

solution
will
do
better
See
also:
http://de.slideshare.net/LeanStartupMachine

What and why Early Adopters?
16
2.5% 13.5% 34% 34% 16%

How to uncover problems
5
Why
root
cause
analysis
à “Why
is
this
a
problem?”
“Job
to
be
done”
concept,
Clayton
Christensen
(JTBD)
• main
job
&
related
Job
• Functional
&
emotional
aspects
• Personal
&
social
dimension

Source:
Ash
Workshop,
2015

BML Feedback loop
Design

experiment
Proposal,
Pretotype,
,
MVP
…Results

Analyse results:
persevere,
pivot
or
quit?
weeks

not

years
Assumption/
Hypothesis
Run

experiment
20
Source:
Eric
Ries
«The
Lean
Startup»

Types of experiments
4)
Early
version
with
minimal
feature
set
that

can
be
“sold”
to
early
adopters

1)
Proposal:
a
document
describing
the
solution

3)
Fake
demo
of
any
kind
2)
Smoke
Test:
Landing
Page
to
test
interest

MVPPretotype

• Welcome:
Set
the
scene
(2min)
• Interviewees
demographics-‐target
customer?
(2min)
• Describe
problem
(your
hypothesis)
(2min)
• Customers
must
rank
top
three
problems
(4min)
• Listen
to
their
world
view
(15min)
• Wrap
up.
Sum
up
feedback
to
confirm
understanding
(2min)
• Get
permission
to
follow
up.
Get
referrals
(2min)
Problem Interview
Ash
Maurya
• Document
results
22
Goal:
Have
I
identified
a
problem
worth
solving?

Source:
Ash
Workshop,
2015

Types of experiments
4)
Early
version
with
minimal
feature
set
that

can
be
“sold”
to
early
adopters

1)
Proposal:
a
document
describing
the
solution

3)
Fake
demo
of
any
kind
2)
Smoke
Test:
Landing
Page
to
test
interest

MVPPretotype

Pretotype Example (Explainer Video)
Test
vision of
cloud service
offering –
Dropbox
28
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QmCUDHpNzE

Solution Interview
Ash
Maurya
• Tell
a
story
-‐ frame
the
product
(2min)
• Show
Concept/UVP,
Demo/Pretotype/MVP
(15min)
• Wrap
up.
Sum
up
feedback
to
confirm
understanding
(2min)
• Get
permission
to
follow
up.
Get
referrals
(2min)

• Document
results
• Welcome:
Set
the
scene
(2min)
• Collect
demographics
– right
customer
segment?
(2min)
29
• Test
the
pricing (15min)
Goal:
Will
I
build
sth.
people
want
at
the
price
they
will
pay?

LEARN:
Persevere
I am convinced that half of what
separates the successful
entrepreneurs from the non-
successful ones is pure
perseverance 30fredi@pragmatic-‐solutions.ch12.01.2017

Source:
Ash
Workshop,
2015

32
Four sequential experiments
Experiment
1;
10% success
Refine
target
segment
Experiment
2;
20% success
Refine
target
segment
Experiment
3;
33% success
Experiment
4;
33% success
qual. quant.
Positive Negative
From Sébastien
Sacard
#
interviews
10% 20% 33%
37%

Experiment Report
Why is it relevant?
Quantify your goals
set scope/timebox
Plan
how to execute
experiment
Results =
Data
Document the learning (validated,
invalidated or inconclusive)

Test
value and growth hypothesis first
Move
to next experiment

LEARN: … or pivot
Pivot: A change in strategy
without a change in vision

Source:
Ash
Workshop,
2015

Lean Dash Board (Lean Stack)
Flow
3612.01.2017 fredi@pragmatic-‐solutions.ch

Problem Solution Fit => Value
Problem
Solution
Fit
You
validated
with
MVP
and

prospects
that
a
specific
solution
will

solve
a
know
problem
to
such
a

degree
that
customer
will
buy
it.

Brant
Cooper
Value
assumption
– test
whether
a

product
or
service
really
delivers

value
to
specific
customers
once

using
it.

Scale
Product

Market

fit
Problem

Solution

fit
Customer

Discovery
Customer

Validation
Customer

Creation
Is
the
identified
problem
real?

Will
the
target
customer
pay?

Can
the
problem
be
solved?


The
growth
assumption
– test
how
new
customers
will
discover

a
product
or
service.
Through
what
engine
will
you
acquire
new

customers
at
affordable
cost.
Product Market Fit => Growth
Product
Market
Fit
Customer
is
willing
to
pay.

Cost
of
acquiring
new
customers
is

smaller
than
profit.

Evidence
that
market
is
large
enough

Brant
Cooper
Scale
Product

Market

fit
Problem

Solution

fit
Customer

Discovery
Customer

Validation
Customer

Creation

Summary: Saving Potential by
applying Lean Innovation
• Lean
Canvas instead of Business
Plan
• Identification &
priorisation of risks instead of
testing the whole Business
Model
• Problem&Solution interviews instead of Market

Research
• Pretotype &
MVP
instead of perfect Product
• Speed
has biggest impact on
profit

A lean investor tells you why to love the problem and not the solution - Fredi Schmidli @ Lean Startup Bern

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A lean investor tells you why to love the problem and not the solution - Fredi Schmidli @ Lean Startup Bern