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Fredi	
  Schmidli
Bern,	
  12.	
  Januar,	
  2017
A Lean Investor tells you, why to love
the Problem and not the Solution
...
http://www.slideshare.net/pragmaticsolutions
Find this presentation tomorrow on
slideshare
2fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch...
Fredi Schmidli
• Economist	
  and	
  BA
• Management	
  Teams	
  in	
  various	
  functions
• Entrepreneur
• Business	
  A...
THE LEAN INVESTOR:
MAKE LOTS OF LITTLE
BETS. EXPECT MOST TO
FAIL.
Dave	
  Mc Clure @http://500.co
4fredi@pragmatic-­‐solut...
Goal:	
  To improve the success rate
Source:	
  Ash	
  Maurya «Running Lean»
• Develop	
  product	
  in	
  half	
  the	
  ...
Lean Innovation Framework
6fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Problem Solution Fit => Value
Problem	
  Solution	
  Fit
You	
  validated	
  with	
  MVP	
  and	
  
prospects	
  that	
  a...
From Idea to Problem/Solution Fit
8
Source:	
  Ash	
  Maurya «Running Lean»
fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Key Principle
Get  out  of  the  
building and      1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9
9fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Lean Canvas (by Ash Maurya / adapted from Osterwalder)
10fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Why Lean Innovation?
See:	
  http://practicetrumpstheory.com/2012/02/why-­‐lean-­‐canvas/
11fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch...
The 3 Phases of Customer Development
12
Source: Ash Maurya, Scaling Lean
What happens here?
fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch...
Source:	
  Ash	
  Maurya «Running Lean»	
  Workshop,	
  2015
13fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Lean Canvas (by Ash Maurya / adapted from Osterwalder)
14fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Persona Development & Segmentation
understand
the “whys” by
looking at the
customers
behaviors
15
Facts
Factual	
  informa...
What and why Early Adopters?
16
2.5% 13.5% 34% 34% 16%
fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Lean Canvas (by Ash Maurya / adapted from Osterwalder)
17fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
How to uncover problems
5	
  Why	
  root	
  cause	
  analysis
à “Why	
  is	
  this	
  a	
  problem?”
“Job	
  to	
  be	
  ...
19fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Source:	
  Ash	
  Maurya «Running Lean»	
  Workshop,	
  2015
BML Feedback loop
Design	
  
experiment
Proposal,	
  Pretotype,
,	
  MVP	
  …Results	
  
Analyse results:
persevere,	
  pi...
Types of experiments
4)	
  Early	
  version	
  with	
  minimal	
  feature	
  set	
  that	
  
can	
  be	
  “sold”	
  to	
  ...
• Welcome:	
  Set	
  the	
  scene	
  (2min)
• Interviewees	
  demographics-­‐target	
  customer?	
  (2min)
• Describe	
  p...
Lean Canvas (by Ash Maurya / adapted from Osterwalder)
23fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Lean Canvas (by Ash Maurya / adapted from Osterwalder)
24fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
25fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Source:	
  Ash	
  Maurya «Running Lean»	
  Workshop,	
  2015
26fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Source:	
  Ash	
  Maurya «Running Lean»	
  Workshop,	
  2015
Types of experiments
4)	
  Early	
  version	
  with	
  minimal	
  feature	
  set	
  that	
  
can	
  be	
  “sold”	
  to	
  ...
Pretotype Example (Explainer Video)
Test	
  vision of
cloud service
offering –
Dropbox
28
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=...
Solution Interview
Ash	
  Maurya
• Tell	
  a	
  story	
  -­‐ frame	
  the	
  product	
  (2min)
• Show	
  Concept/UVP,	
  D...
LEARN:	
  Persevere
I am convinced that half of what
separates the successful
entrepreneurs from the non-
successful ones ...
31fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Source:	
  Ash	
  Maurya «Running Lean»	
  Workshop,	
  2015
32
Four sequential experiments
Experiment	
  1;	
  10% success
Refine	
  target	
  segment
Experiment	
  2;	
  20% success...
Experiment Report
Why is it relevant?
Quantify your goals
set scope/timebox
Plan	
  how to execute
experiment
Results =	
 ...
LEARN: … or pivot
Pivot:  A  change  in  strategy  
without  a  change  in  vision
34fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2...
35fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
Source:	
  Ash	
  Maurya «Running Lean»	
  Workshop,	
  2015
Lean Dash Board (Lean Stack)
Flow
3612.01.2017 fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch
Problem Solution Fit => Value
Problem	
  Solution	
  Fit
You	
  validated	
  with	
  MVP	
  and	
  
prospects	
  that	
  a...
The	
  growth	
  assumption	
  – test	
  how	
  new	
  customers	
  will	
  discover	
  
a	
  product	
  or	
  service.	
 ...
Summary: Saving Potential by
applying Lean Innovation
• Lean	
  Canvas instead of Business	
  Plan
• Identification &	
  p...
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A lean investor tells you why to love the problem and not the solution - Fredi Schmidli @ Lean Startup Bern

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In my presentation I let you know how I became a lean investor and lean innovation trainer and why I do not invest anymore in start-ups working the traditional way.

However, this approach is not a cure-all. This means that an overwhelming majority of ideas for startups or corporates ​will​ fail regardless of how you approach it. ​​My goal is to show you how to find ​this out as fast as possible and with the least effort​.​ ​I ​point out the ​many ​pitfalls when working with Lean Startup/Lean Innovation​ and how to avoid them. ​

The​ focus​ is​ on how to find out whether you have targeted the right customer segment​ and if not, how to iterate with problem & solution interviews between the Problem, Solution and the Customer Segment Fields of the Lean Canvas until you have reached the Problem/Solution Fit.​

Veröffentlicht in: Business
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A lean investor tells you why to love the problem and not the solution - Fredi Schmidli @ Lean Startup Bern

  1. 1. Fredi  Schmidli Bern,  12.  Januar,  2017 A Lean Investor tells you, why to love the Problem and not the Solution Lean Startup Bern Meetup fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch
  2. 2. http://www.slideshare.net/pragmaticsolutions Find this presentation tomorrow on slideshare 2fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  3. 3. Fredi Schmidli • Economist  and  BA • Management  Teams  in  various  functions • Entrepreneur • Business  Angel  and  Boardmember:  www.startangels.ch • Partner  at  pragmatic  solutions • Community  Builder:  meetup.com/Lean-­‐startup-­‐Zurich/ 3fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  4. 4. THE LEAN INVESTOR: MAKE LOTS OF LITTLE BETS. EXPECT MOST TO FAIL. Dave  Mc Clure @http://500.co 4fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  5. 5. Goal:  To improve the success rate Source:  Ash  Maurya «Running Lean» • Develop  product  in  half  the  time  and  at  half  the  cost  (GE) • Reduce  failure:  “wrong”  product  and  “premature”  scaling 5fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  6. 6. Lean Innovation Framework 6fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  7. 7. Problem Solution Fit => Value Problem  Solution  Fit You  validated  with  MVP  and   prospects  that  a  specific  solution  will   solve  a  known  problem  to  such  a   degree  that  customer  will  buy  it.   Brant  Cooper Value  assumption  – test  whether  a   product  or  service  really  delivers   value  to  specific  customers  once   using  it.   Scale Product   Market   fit Problem   Solution   fit Customer   Discovery Customer   Validation Customer   Creation Is  the  identified  problem  real?   Will  the  target  customer  pay?   Can  the  problem  be  solved?   7fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  8. 8. From Idea to Problem/Solution Fit 8 Source:  Ash  Maurya «Running Lean» fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  9. 9. Key Principle Get  out  of  the   building and      1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 9fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  10. 10. Lean Canvas (by Ash Maurya / adapted from Osterwalder) 10fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  11. 11. Why Lean Innovation? See:  http://practicetrumpstheory.com/2012/02/why-­‐lean-­‐canvas/ 11fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  12. 12. The 3 Phases of Customer Development 12 Source: Ash Maurya, Scaling Lean What happens here? fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  13. 13. Source:  Ash  Maurya «Running Lean»  Workshop,  2015 13fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  14. 14. Lean Canvas (by Ash Maurya / adapted from Osterwalder) 14fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  15. 15. Persona Development & Segmentation understand the “whys” by looking at the customers behaviors 15 Facts Factual  information   about  your  target   customer Pain State  the  problem  you   believe  your  target   customers  have,  that  your   solutions  solves Behavior Existing  behavior  they   exhibit  now,  because  they   don’t  have  your  solution Goals What  goals  are  they   trying  to  accomplish  with   their  behavior,  that  your   solution  will  do  better See  also:  http://de.slideshare.net/LeanStartupMachine fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  16. 16. What and why Early Adopters? 16 2.5% 13.5% 34% 34% 16% fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  17. 17. Lean Canvas (by Ash Maurya / adapted from Osterwalder) 17fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  18. 18. How to uncover problems 5  Why  root  cause  analysis à “Why  is  this  a  problem?” “Job  to  be  done”  concept,  Clayton  Christensen  (JTBD) • main  job  &  related  Job • Functional  &  emotional  aspects • Personal  &  social  dimension 18fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  19. 19. 19fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017 Source:  Ash  Maurya «Running Lean»  Workshop,  2015
  20. 20. BML Feedback loop Design   experiment Proposal,  Pretotype, ,  MVP  …Results   Analyse results: persevere,  pivot or  quit? weeks   not   years Assumption/ Hypothesis Run   experiment 20 Source:  Eric  Ries  «The  Lean  Startup» fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  21. 21. Types of experiments 4)  Early  version  with  minimal  feature  set  that   can  be  “sold”  to  early  adopters   1)  Proposal:  a  document  describing  the  solution   3)  Fake  demo  of  any  kind 2)  Smoke  Test:  Landing  Page  to  test  interest   MVPPretotype 21fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  22. 22. • Welcome:  Set  the  scene  (2min) • Interviewees  demographics-­‐target  customer?  (2min) • Describe  problem  (your  hypothesis)  (2min) • Customers  must  rank  top  three  problems  (4min) • Listen  to  their  world  view  (15min) • Wrap  up.  Sum  up  feedback  to  confirm  understanding  (2min) • Get  permission  to  follow  up.  Get  referrals  (2min) Problem Interview Ash  Maurya • Document  results 22 Goal:  Have  I  identified  a  problem  worth  solving? fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  23. 23. Lean Canvas (by Ash Maurya / adapted from Osterwalder) 23fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  24. 24. Lean Canvas (by Ash Maurya / adapted from Osterwalder) 24fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  25. 25. 25fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017 Source:  Ash  Maurya «Running Lean»  Workshop,  2015
  26. 26. 26fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017 Source:  Ash  Maurya «Running Lean»  Workshop,  2015
  27. 27. Types of experiments 4)  Early  version  with  minimal  feature  set  that   can  be  “sold”  to  early  adopters   1)  Proposal:  a  document  describing  the  solution   3)  Fake  demo  of  any  kind 2)  Smoke  Test:  Landing  Page  to  test  interest   MVPPretotype 27fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  28. 28. Pretotype Example (Explainer Video) Test  vision of cloud service offering – Dropbox 28 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QmCUDHpNzE fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  29. 29. Solution Interview Ash  Maurya • Tell  a  story  -­‐ frame  the  product  (2min) • Show  Concept/UVP,  Demo/Pretotype/MVP  (15min) • Wrap  up.  Sum  up  feedback  to  confirm  understanding  (2min) • Get  permission  to  follow  up.  Get  referrals  (2min)   • Document  results • Welcome:  Set  the  scene  (2min) • Collect  demographics  – right  customer  segment?  (2min) 29 • Test  the  pricing (15min) Goal:  Will  I  build  sth.  people  want  at  the  price  they  will  pay? fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  30. 30. LEARN:  Persevere I am convinced that half of what separates the successful entrepreneurs from the non- successful ones is pure perseverance 30fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  31. 31. 31fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017 Source:  Ash  Maurya «Running Lean»  Workshop,  2015
  32. 32. 32 Four sequential experiments Experiment  1;  10% success Refine  target  segment Experiment  2;  20% success Refine  target  segment Experiment  3;  33% success Experiment  4;  33% success qual. quant. Positive Negative From Sébastien  Sacard #  interviews 10% 20% 33% 37% fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  33. 33. Experiment Report Why is it relevant? Quantify your goals set scope/timebox Plan  how to execute experiment Results =  Data Document the learning (validated, invalidated or inconclusive)   Test  value and growth hypothesis first Move  to next experiment 33fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  34. 34. LEARN: … or pivot Pivot:  A  change  in  strategy   without  a  change  in  vision 34fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  35. 35. 35fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017 Source:  Ash  Maurya «Running Lean»  Workshop,  2015
  36. 36. Lean Dash Board (Lean Stack) Flow 3612.01.2017 fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch
  37. 37. Problem Solution Fit => Value Problem  Solution  Fit You  validated  with  MVP  and   prospects  that  a  specific  solution  will   solve  a  know  problem  to  such  a   degree  that  customer  will  buy  it.   Brant  Cooper Value  assumption  – test  whether  a   product  or  service  really  delivers   value  to  specific  customers  once   using  it.   Scale Product   Market   fit Problem   Solution   fit Customer   Discovery Customer   Validation Customer   Creation Is  the  identified  problem  real?   Will  the  target  customer  pay?   Can  the  problem  be  solved?   37fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  38. 38. The  growth  assumption  – test  how  new  customers  will  discover   a  product  or  service.  Through  what  engine  will  you  acquire  new   customers  at  affordable  cost. Product Market Fit => Growth Product  Market  Fit Customer  is  willing  to  pay.   Cost  of  acquiring  new  customers  is   smaller  than  profit.   Evidence  that  market  is  large  enough   Brant  Cooper Scale Product   Market   fit Problem   Solution   fit Customer   Discovery Customer   Validation Customer   Creation 38fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017
  39. 39. Summary: Saving Potential by applying Lean Innovation • Lean  Canvas instead of Business  Plan • Identification &  priorisation of risks instead of testing the whole Business  Model • Problem&Solution interviews instead of Market   Research • Pretotype &  MVP  instead of perfect Product • Speed  has biggest impact on  profit 39fredi@pragmatic-­‐solutions.ch12.01.2017

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