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NIJIL C V
Flexible Exchange Rate System
Fixed Exchange Rate System
Linked Exchange Rate System
 Demand for domestic country’s (HK) currency
 Demand for X
 Capital Inflow
 Supply of domestic country’s (HK) currency
 Demand for M
 Capital outflow
D
S
exchange rate
Q
amount of domestic currency
1 unit of foreign currency
e.g. HK$5
Au$1
amount of foreign currency
a unit of domestic currency can buy more units
of foreign currencies
Depreciation
a unit of domestic currency can buy less units of
foreign currencies
 demand for X
 capital inflow
 people expect domestic currency appreciate
demand for domestic currency
appreciation of domestic currency
D
S
exchange rate
Q
HK$5
Au$1
amount of foreign currency
S’
HK$4.5
Au$1
Appreciation of
Domestic Currency
 demand for imports
 capital outflow
 people expect domestic currency depreciate
supply of domestic currency
depreciation of domestic currency
D
S
exchange rate
Q
amount of foreign currency
D’
HK$5
Au$1
HK$5.2
Au$1
Depreciation of
Domestic Currency
 domestic price level
 X
(demand for domestic currency)
 M
(supply of domestic currency)
 depreciation of domestic currency
 domestic interest rate
 capital inflow
(demand for domestic currency)
 appreciation of domestic currency
D
S
exchange rate
Q
HK$5
Au$1
amount of foreign currency
S’
HK$4.5
Au$1
Appreciation of
Domestic Currency
 assume exports are autonomous
 income level
 demand for M
(supply of domestic currency )
 depreciation of domestic currency
D
S
exchange rate
Q
amount of foreign currency
HK$7.8
US$1
HK$8.2
US$1
Depreciation of
Domestic Currency
D
S
exchange rate
Q
amount of foreign currency
D’
HK$5
Au$1
HK$5.2
Au$1
Depreciation of
Domestic Currency
 Depreciation will improve the balance of payments
position of a country, provided that the sum of
elasticities of foreign demand for domestic exports
( Ex) domestic demand for imports ( Em )is
greater than one.
Depreciation
HK$5
Au$1
Au$0.96
HK$5
(unchanged)
exchange rate
= HK$5/Au$1
exchange rate
= HK$5.2/Au$1
Depreciation (effect on exports)
export prices in foreign currency
(Au$1 Au$0.96)
(export prices in domestic currency
unchanged)
(HK$5 HK$5)
Qd of X
export value ( P x Q) in domestic currency
(HK$5 x 1000 HK$5x 1200)
Depreciation (effect on imports)
HK$5
Au$1
Au$1
HK$5.2
exchange rate
= HK$5/Au$1
exchange rate
= HK$5.2/Au$1
Depreciation
import prices in domestic currency
(HK$5 HK$5.2)
(import prices in foreign currency unchanged)
(Au$1 Au$1)
Qd of M
value of imports ( P x Q) in domestic currency ?
 elastic
 inelastic
 unitarily elastic
value of imports in
domestic currency
unchanged
If demand for exports is elastic ( Ex > 1)
export value ( P x Q) in domestic currency
If demand for imports is elastic ( Em > 1)
import value in domestic currency
 Therefore, if demand for exports and demand
for imports are elastic, depreciation of domestic
currency will lead to improvement of balance of
payments situation.
 If Ex + Em > 1
depreciation will lead to improvement of BOP
the official exchange rate is altered so that a unit
of the domestic currency can buy fewer units of
foreign currencies
Revaluation
the official exchange rate is altered so that a unit
of the domestic currency can buy more units of
foreign currencies
 The gap between official exchange rate and
equilibrium exchange rate will be reduced.
 
 Exports become more competitive in the
international market.
 
 Imports become more expensive.
D
S
exchange rate
Q
amount of foreign currency
HK$5
Au$1
HK$
Au$
fixed rate1
D
S
exchange rate
Q
HK$5.2
US$1
amount of foreign currency
HK$5
Au$1
HK$
US$
fixed rate1
Devaluation of
domestic currency
fixed rate2
 The gap between official exchange rate and
equilibrium exchange rate will be reduced.
 
 Exports become less competitive in the
international market.
 
 Imports become cheaper.
D
S
exchange rate
Q
amount of foreign currency
HK$5
Au$1
HK$
US$
fixed rate1
Revaluation of
domestic currency
D
S
exchange rate
Q
HK$4.5
Au$1
amount of foreign currency
HK$5
Au$1
HK$
US$
fixed rate1
Revaluation of
domestic currency
fixed rate2
D
exchange rate
Q
amount of foreign currency
HK$5
Au$1
HK$
US$
fixed rate
Balance of
Payments Deficit
S
D
S’
exchange rate
Q
amount of foreign currency
HK$5
Au$1
HK$
US$
fixed rate
Balance of
Payments Deficit
S
Bop deficit
D
S’
exchange rate
Q
amount of foreign currency
HK$5
Au$1
HK$
Au$
fixed rate
Bop deficit
D
S’
exchange rate
Q
amount of foreign currency
HK$5
Au$1
HK$
US$
fixed rate
government increase the
supply of foreign currency
S”
Bop deficit
D
exchange rate
Q
amount of foreign currency
HK$5
Au$1
HK$
Au$
fixed rate
S
Bop surplus
D’
exchange rate
Q
amount of foreign currency
HK$7.8
US$1
HK$
Au$
fixed rate
S
Bop surplus
D’
D”
exchange rate
Q
amount of foreign currency
HK$5
Au$1
HK$
Au$
fixed rate
S
Bop surplus
D’
government increase the
demand for foreign
currency
exchange rate
Q
amount of foreign currency
HK$7.8
US$1
HK$
US$
S
D
upper limit
lower limit
Dirty Floating
 prohibit or restrict the purchase of foreign
exchange
 black market will emerge
BOP deficit to support the
exchange rate, govt
S of foreign currency
( D for domestic currency)
Ms P
X , M
BOP deficit
(if Marshall-Lerner
Condition is
satisfied???
interest rate
capital inflow
Ms in foreign country
P in foreign currency
trade surplus (X , M )
to maintain the fixed exchange rate,
government demand for foreign currency
(supply of domestic currency )
Ms P
r in foreign country
capital inflow in domestic country
to maintain the fixed exchange rate,
government demand for foreign currency
(supply of domestic currency )
Ms r
Foreign country
Ms
inflation
r
Domestic country
Ms
inflation
r
Flexible exchange rate
exchange rate is
determined by
demand for and
supply of foreign
currency
Fixed exchange rate
the government fixes
the foreign exchange
rate by buying and
selling of foreign
exchange
Flexible exchange rate
 depreciation or
appreciation of a
currency is determined
by the market forces
 speculation in foreign
exchange market is
common
Fixed exchange rate
 devaluation or
revaluation of a
currency is determined
by the government
 speculation occurs
when there is rumour
about the change in
government policy
Flexible exchange
rate
 self-adjusting
mechanism
operates to
eliminate external
disequilibrium by
change in foreign
exchange rate
Fixed exchange rate
 self-adjusting
mechanism
operates through
the change in
money supply,
domestic interest
rate and domestic
price
 a currency will not be over-valued or under-valued
 Balance of payments deficit or surplus will be
corrected automatically through market forces
 lead to an efficient allocation of resources
 no “policy conflict”
 enables a country to pursue an independent
economic policy
 minimize outside influences on the domestic
economy as there is no imported inflation or
deflation
 there is no need for central banks to keep official
reserves in order to intervene in the foreign
exchange market
Flexible Exchange Rate
 increase business
uncertainties and reduce
volume of trade
 Such uncertainties can
be reduced or eliminated
by forward market
Fixed Exchange Rate
 there are also
uncertainties under
the fixed exchange
rate system
 speculative
transactions are self-
fulfilling
Flexible Exchange
Rate
 increase currency
speculation and it is
therefore destabilizing
 speculation can be
stabilizing
Fixed Exchange Rate
 one-way option
speculation
Flexible Exchange
Rate
 The external sector
is always in
equilibrium
 no “policy problem”
Fixed Exchange Rate
 Inflation in a country will
lead to balance of
payment deficits and the
government is likely to
initiate contractionary
policies to combat
inflation.
 “deflationary biased”
 inflation in domestic country
 BOP deficit
 supply of foreign currency
 government initiates contrationary policies to
combat inflation
 if BOP deficit + unemployment
 What should the government do?
 contrationary policy (e.g. G ), or
 expansionary policy (e.g. G )
 Certainty
 This system was adopted at a time following rapid
depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar. It was used
by the Hong Kong government to stabilize the
value of the Hong Kong dollar.
 the authorities are not obliged to intervene, as
there is an ‘arbitrage and competition’ mechanism
to ensure the convergence of the market rate with
the official rate.
note issuing banks
Exchange
Fund
US$1
Certificate of
Indebtedness
(CIs)
HK$7.8
linked exchange rate
HK$7.8
US$1
=
other licensed banks and
public
US$
note issuing banks
Exchange
Fund
US$1
Certificate of
Indebtedness
(CIs)
HK$7.8
linked exchange rate
HK$7.8
US$1
=
other licensed banks and
public
US$1
HK$7.8
note issuing banks
Exchange
Fund
US$1
HK$7.7
linked exchange rate
HK$7.8
US$1
=
other licensed banks and
public
The Process of
Arbitrage
open market rate
HK$7.7
US$1
=
US$1
CIs
(HK$7.8)
note issuing banks
Exchange
Fund
US$1
HK$7.9
linked exchange rate
HK$7.8
US$1
=
other licensed banks and
public
The Process of
Arbitrage
open market rate
HK$7.9
US$1
=
US$1
CIs
(HK$7.8)
 If there are no transaction costs, arbitrage in either
direction will continue until the free market
exchange rate equals the linked rate.
 If there are transaction costs, the free- market
exchange rate will fluctuate within a narrow range
around the linked exchange rate.
 The note-issuing banks can only issue currency
notes by paying US dollars to the Exchange Fund
in advance.
 currency in Hong Kong cannot be increased if
Hong Kong is unable to earn US dollars, or other
foreign currencies easily convertible into US
dollars
inflation in HK
X , M
BOP deficit
note-issuing banks’ demand
for HK$
Ms
US interest rate
Hong Kong capital outflow
Hong Kong has to increase interest rate
AL 89/9
 
 Under the fixed exchange rate system, a
country can correct its balance of payments
deficit by either devaluing its currency or
implementing a contractionary domestic
policy.
 a. Explain with appropriate diagrams how
the two policies can reduce a balance of
payments deficit.
 b. 'These two policies have different impacts
on the economy and, as a result, should be
used under different conditions.' Explain.
Expenditure
Y
X
M
C+I+G+X-M
450
trade deficit
Expenditure
Y
X
M
C+I+G+X-M
450
trade deficit
C+I+G’+X-M
Expenditure
Y
X
M
C+I+G+X-M
450
trade deficit
M’
X’
C+I+G+X’-M’
AL 90/7
 
Under Hong Kong's present linked exchange
rate system, what will happen to the
exchange rate between the Japanese yen
and the Hong Kong dollar, if assuming other
things being equal,
a. the US dollar depreciates by 10 percent
against the Japanese yen?
b. Hong Kong has a large surplus against
Japan in its balance of payments?
c. the inflation rate rises in the U.S.A.?
Use simple diagrams to illustrate your answer.
HK$/Yen
quantity of
Yen
D
D’ S
E
E’
HK$/Yen
quantity of
Yen
D
S’
E
E’
S
HK$/Yen
quantity of
Yen
D
D’ (HK imports )
S
E’
E
S’ (HK exports )
AL 94/6
 
Use demand and supply analysis, with the
vertical axis as the exchange rate (price of
foreign currency) to explain how an increase
in imports would affect
 
a. the exchange rate under a floating exchange
rate system.
b. the official and the black market exchange
rates in a fixed exchange rate system
(assume that the black market exchange
rate is initially higher than the official rate).
Price of foreign
currency
Quantity of foreign currency
ec
e1
Mc
D
S
A
(black
market rate)
(official rate)
Price of foreign
currency
Quantity of foreign currency
ec
e1
e2
Mc
D
D’
S
A
(black
market rate)
(official rate)
(black
market
rate)
96/8
 Under a fixed exchange rate system Country A
over-values its currency, which leads to an
external deficit.
 
a. Illustrate the situation using a well-labelled
diagram.
b. What should be the government of
Country A do in the foreign exchange market
to maintain the exchange rate at the fixed
rate? How will this affect the money supply of
Country A?
c. Explain whether Country A can eliminate
its external deficit by promoting export
Price of foreign
currency
Quantity of foreign
currency
e*
D
S’
S
(official rate)
BOP deficit
Price of foreign
currency
Quantity of foreign currency
e1
e2
D
D’
S
A
B

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Unit 3 Emotional Intelligence and Spiritual Intelligence.pdf
 

Exchange rate system

  • 2. Flexible Exchange Rate System Fixed Exchange Rate System Linked Exchange Rate System
  • 3.  Demand for domestic country’s (HK) currency  Demand for X  Capital Inflow
  • 4.  Supply of domestic country’s (HK) currency  Demand for M  Capital outflow
  • 5. D S exchange rate Q amount of domestic currency 1 unit of foreign currency e.g. HK$5 Au$1 amount of foreign currency
  • 6. a unit of domestic currency can buy more units of foreign currencies Depreciation a unit of domestic currency can buy less units of foreign currencies
  • 7.  demand for X  capital inflow  people expect domestic currency appreciate demand for domestic currency appreciation of domestic currency
  • 8. D S exchange rate Q HK$5 Au$1 amount of foreign currency S’ HK$4.5 Au$1 Appreciation of Domestic Currency
  • 9.  demand for imports  capital outflow  people expect domestic currency depreciate supply of domestic currency depreciation of domestic currency
  • 10. D S exchange rate Q amount of foreign currency D’ HK$5 Au$1 HK$5.2 Au$1 Depreciation of Domestic Currency
  • 11.  domestic price level  X (demand for domestic currency)  M (supply of domestic currency)  depreciation of domestic currency
  • 12.  domestic interest rate  capital inflow (demand for domestic currency)  appreciation of domestic currency
  • 13. D S exchange rate Q HK$5 Au$1 amount of foreign currency S’ HK$4.5 Au$1 Appreciation of Domestic Currency
  • 14.  assume exports are autonomous  income level  demand for M (supply of domestic currency )  depreciation of domestic currency
  • 15. D S exchange rate Q amount of foreign currency HK$7.8 US$1 HK$8.2 US$1 Depreciation of Domestic Currency
  • 16. D S exchange rate Q amount of foreign currency D’ HK$5 Au$1 HK$5.2 Au$1 Depreciation of Domestic Currency
  • 17.  Depreciation will improve the balance of payments position of a country, provided that the sum of elasticities of foreign demand for domestic exports ( Ex) domestic demand for imports ( Em )is greater than one.
  • 19. Depreciation (effect on exports) export prices in foreign currency (Au$1 Au$0.96) (export prices in domestic currency unchanged) (HK$5 HK$5) Qd of X export value ( P x Q) in domestic currency (HK$5 x 1000 HK$5x 1200)
  • 20. Depreciation (effect on imports) HK$5 Au$1 Au$1 HK$5.2 exchange rate = HK$5/Au$1 exchange rate = HK$5.2/Au$1
  • 21. Depreciation import prices in domestic currency (HK$5 HK$5.2) (import prices in foreign currency unchanged) (Au$1 Au$1) Qd of M value of imports ( P x Q) in domestic currency ?
  • 22.  elastic  inelastic  unitarily elastic value of imports in domestic currency unchanged
  • 23. If demand for exports is elastic ( Ex > 1) export value ( P x Q) in domestic currency If demand for imports is elastic ( Em > 1) import value in domestic currency
  • 24.  Therefore, if demand for exports and demand for imports are elastic, depreciation of domestic currency will lead to improvement of balance of payments situation.  If Ex + Em > 1 depreciation will lead to improvement of BOP
  • 25.
  • 26. the official exchange rate is altered so that a unit of the domestic currency can buy fewer units of foreign currencies Revaluation the official exchange rate is altered so that a unit of the domestic currency can buy more units of foreign currencies
  • 27.  The gap between official exchange rate and equilibrium exchange rate will be reduced.    Exports become more competitive in the international market.    Imports become more expensive.
  • 28. D S exchange rate Q amount of foreign currency HK$5 Au$1 HK$ Au$ fixed rate1
  • 29. D S exchange rate Q HK$5.2 US$1 amount of foreign currency HK$5 Au$1 HK$ US$ fixed rate1 Devaluation of domestic currency fixed rate2
  • 30.  The gap between official exchange rate and equilibrium exchange rate will be reduced.    Exports become less competitive in the international market.    Imports become cheaper.
  • 31. D S exchange rate Q amount of foreign currency HK$5 Au$1 HK$ US$ fixed rate1 Revaluation of domestic currency
  • 32. D S exchange rate Q HK$4.5 Au$1 amount of foreign currency HK$5 Au$1 HK$ US$ fixed rate1 Revaluation of domestic currency fixed rate2
  • 33.
  • 34. D exchange rate Q amount of foreign currency HK$5 Au$1 HK$ US$ fixed rate Balance of Payments Deficit S
  • 35. D S’ exchange rate Q amount of foreign currency HK$5 Au$1 HK$ US$ fixed rate Balance of Payments Deficit S Bop deficit
  • 36. D S’ exchange rate Q amount of foreign currency HK$5 Au$1 HK$ Au$ fixed rate Bop deficit
  • 37. D S’ exchange rate Q amount of foreign currency HK$5 Au$1 HK$ US$ fixed rate government increase the supply of foreign currency S” Bop deficit
  • 38.
  • 39. D exchange rate Q amount of foreign currency HK$5 Au$1 HK$ Au$ fixed rate S Bop surplus D’
  • 40. exchange rate Q amount of foreign currency HK$7.8 US$1 HK$ Au$ fixed rate S Bop surplus D’
  • 41. D” exchange rate Q amount of foreign currency HK$5 Au$1 HK$ Au$ fixed rate S Bop surplus D’ government increase the demand for foreign currency
  • 42. exchange rate Q amount of foreign currency HK$7.8 US$1 HK$ US$ S D upper limit lower limit Dirty Floating
  • 43.  prohibit or restrict the purchase of foreign exchange  black market will emerge
  • 44. BOP deficit to support the exchange rate, govt S of foreign currency ( D for domestic currency) Ms P X , M BOP deficit (if Marshall-Lerner Condition is satisfied??? interest rate capital inflow
  • 45. Ms in foreign country P in foreign currency trade surplus (X , M ) to maintain the fixed exchange rate, government demand for foreign currency (supply of domestic currency ) Ms P
  • 46. r in foreign country capital inflow in domestic country to maintain the fixed exchange rate, government demand for foreign currency (supply of domestic currency ) Ms r
  • 48. Flexible exchange rate exchange rate is determined by demand for and supply of foreign currency Fixed exchange rate the government fixes the foreign exchange rate by buying and selling of foreign exchange
  • 49. Flexible exchange rate  depreciation or appreciation of a currency is determined by the market forces  speculation in foreign exchange market is common Fixed exchange rate  devaluation or revaluation of a currency is determined by the government  speculation occurs when there is rumour about the change in government policy
  • 50. Flexible exchange rate  self-adjusting mechanism operates to eliminate external disequilibrium by change in foreign exchange rate Fixed exchange rate  self-adjusting mechanism operates through the change in money supply, domestic interest rate and domestic price
  • 51.  a currency will not be over-valued or under-valued  Balance of payments deficit or surplus will be corrected automatically through market forces  lead to an efficient allocation of resources  no “policy conflict”  enables a country to pursue an independent economic policy
  • 52.  minimize outside influences on the domestic economy as there is no imported inflation or deflation  there is no need for central banks to keep official reserves in order to intervene in the foreign exchange market
  • 53. Flexible Exchange Rate  increase business uncertainties and reduce volume of trade  Such uncertainties can be reduced or eliminated by forward market Fixed Exchange Rate  there are also uncertainties under the fixed exchange rate system  speculative transactions are self- fulfilling
  • 54. Flexible Exchange Rate  increase currency speculation and it is therefore destabilizing  speculation can be stabilizing Fixed Exchange Rate  one-way option speculation
  • 55. Flexible Exchange Rate  The external sector is always in equilibrium  no “policy problem” Fixed Exchange Rate  Inflation in a country will lead to balance of payment deficits and the government is likely to initiate contractionary policies to combat inflation.  “deflationary biased”
  • 56.  inflation in domestic country  BOP deficit  supply of foreign currency  government initiates contrationary policies to combat inflation
  • 57.  if BOP deficit + unemployment  What should the government do?  contrationary policy (e.g. G ), or  expansionary policy (e.g. G )
  • 59.  This system was adopted at a time following rapid depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar. It was used by the Hong Kong government to stabilize the value of the Hong Kong dollar.
  • 60.  the authorities are not obliged to intervene, as there is an ‘arbitrage and competition’ mechanism to ensure the convergence of the market rate with the official rate.
  • 61. note issuing banks Exchange Fund US$1 Certificate of Indebtedness (CIs) HK$7.8 linked exchange rate HK$7.8 US$1 = other licensed banks and public US$
  • 62. note issuing banks Exchange Fund US$1 Certificate of Indebtedness (CIs) HK$7.8 linked exchange rate HK$7.8 US$1 = other licensed banks and public US$1 HK$7.8
  • 63. note issuing banks Exchange Fund US$1 HK$7.7 linked exchange rate HK$7.8 US$1 = other licensed banks and public The Process of Arbitrage open market rate HK$7.7 US$1 = US$1 CIs (HK$7.8)
  • 64. note issuing banks Exchange Fund US$1 HK$7.9 linked exchange rate HK$7.8 US$1 = other licensed banks and public The Process of Arbitrage open market rate HK$7.9 US$1 = US$1 CIs (HK$7.8)
  • 65.  If there are no transaction costs, arbitrage in either direction will continue until the free market exchange rate equals the linked rate.  If there are transaction costs, the free- market exchange rate will fluctuate within a narrow range around the linked exchange rate.
  • 66.  The note-issuing banks can only issue currency notes by paying US dollars to the Exchange Fund in advance.  currency in Hong Kong cannot be increased if Hong Kong is unable to earn US dollars, or other foreign currencies easily convertible into US dollars
  • 67. inflation in HK X , M BOP deficit note-issuing banks’ demand for HK$ Ms
  • 68. US interest rate Hong Kong capital outflow Hong Kong has to increase interest rate
  • 69. AL 89/9    Under the fixed exchange rate system, a country can correct its balance of payments deficit by either devaluing its currency or implementing a contractionary domestic policy.  a. Explain with appropriate diagrams how the two policies can reduce a balance of payments deficit.  b. 'These two policies have different impacts on the economy and, as a result, should be used under different conditions.' Explain.
  • 73. AL 90/7   Under Hong Kong's present linked exchange rate system, what will happen to the exchange rate between the Japanese yen and the Hong Kong dollar, if assuming other things being equal, a. the US dollar depreciates by 10 percent against the Japanese yen? b. Hong Kong has a large surplus against Japan in its balance of payments? c. the inflation rate rises in the U.S.A.? Use simple diagrams to illustrate your answer.
  • 76. HK$/Yen quantity of Yen D D’ (HK imports ) S E’ E S’ (HK exports )
  • 77. AL 94/6   Use demand and supply analysis, with the vertical axis as the exchange rate (price of foreign currency) to explain how an increase in imports would affect   a. the exchange rate under a floating exchange rate system. b. the official and the black market exchange rates in a fixed exchange rate system (assume that the black market exchange rate is initially higher than the official rate).
  • 78. Price of foreign currency Quantity of foreign currency ec e1 Mc D S A (black market rate) (official rate)
  • 79. Price of foreign currency Quantity of foreign currency ec e1 e2 Mc D D’ S A (black market rate) (official rate) (black market rate)
  • 80. 96/8  Under a fixed exchange rate system Country A over-values its currency, which leads to an external deficit.   a. Illustrate the situation using a well-labelled diagram. b. What should be the government of Country A do in the foreign exchange market to maintain the exchange rate at the fixed rate? How will this affect the money supply of Country A? c. Explain whether Country A can eliminate its external deficit by promoting export
  • 81. Price of foreign currency Quantity of foreign currency e* D S’ S (official rate) BOP deficit
  • 82. Price of foreign currency Quantity of foreign currency e1 e2 D D’ S A B