1. Introduction
Dynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
The Dynamics of Radical Right Party Support
and Mainstream Parties’ Programmatic Change
in France
Kai Arzheimer
University of Mainz/University of Essex
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (1/11)

2. Introduction
Dynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
What’s the problem (I)?
Radical Right in Western Europe
Roughly similar profile (the nation, law and order,
anti-establishment, immigration)
Roughly similar voters (working/lower middle classes, male,
moderate levels of formal education)
Roughly similar support?
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (2/11)

3. Introduction
Dynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
What’s the problem (I)?
Radical Right in Western Europe
Roughly similar profile (the nation, law and order,
anti-establishment, immigration)
Roughly similar voters (working/lower middle classes, male,
moderate levels of formal education)
Roughly similar support?
Support for the Radical Right highly volatile
Accross time (within countries)
Across countries
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (2/11)

4. Introduction
Dynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
What’s the problem (I)?
Radical Right in Western Europe
Roughly similar profile (the nation, law and order,
anti-establishment, immigration)
Roughly similar voters (working/lower middle classes, male,
moderate levels of formal education)
Roughly similar support?
Support for the Radical Right highly volatile
Accross time (within countries)
Across countries
Demand should be roughly stable
“Supply Side” (party) and “Contextual” (external) factors
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (2/11)

5. Introduction
Dynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
A possible solution: context
Jackman and Volpert, 1996, Knigge, 1998, Lubbers, Gijsberts,
and Scheepers, 2002, Golder, 2003a,b, Swank and Betz, 2003:
Electoral System, Unemployment, Immigration, Welfare State
Institutions, political space
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (3/11)

6. Introduction
Dynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
A possible solution: context
Jackman and Volpert, 1996, Knigge, 1998, Lubbers, Gijsberts,
and Scheepers, 2002, Golder, 2003a,b, Swank and Betz, 2003:
Electoral System, Unemployment, Immigration, Welfare State
Institutions, political space
Arzheimer and Carter, 2006: ideological context , i. e. presence
of radical right issues in other parties’ manifestos
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (3/11)

7. Introduction
Dynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
A possible solution: context
Jackman and Volpert, 1996, Knigge, 1998, Lubbers, Gijsberts,
and Scheepers, 2002, Golder, 2003a,b, Swank and Betz, 2003:
Electoral System, Unemployment, Immigration, Welfare State
Institutions, political space
Arzheimer and Carter, 2006: ideological context , i. e. presence
of radical right issues in other parties’ manifestos
Polarisation, variance, salience:
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (3/11)

8. Introduction
Dynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
A possible solution: context
Jackman and Volpert, 1996, Knigge, 1998, Lubbers, Gijsberts,
and Scheepers, 2002, Golder, 2003a,b, Swank and Betz, 2003:
Electoral System, Unemployment, Immigration, Welfare State
Institutions, political space
Arzheimer and Carter, 2006: ideological context , i. e. presence
of radical right issues in other parties’ manifestos
Polarisation, variance, salience:
Radical Right will benefit if other parties talk about “their”
issues
Direction does no matter
Agenda setting, priming, legitimacy
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (3/11)

9. Introduction
Dynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
A possible solution: context
Jackman and Volpert, 1996, Knigge, 1998, Lubbers, Gijsberts,
and Scheepers, 2002, Golder, 2003a,b, Swank and Betz, 2003:
Electoral System, Unemployment, Immigration, Welfare State
Institutions, political space
Arzheimer and Carter, 2006: ideological context , i. e. presence
of radical right issues in other parties’ manifestos
Polarisation, variance, salience:
Radical Right will benefit if other parties talk about “their”
issues
Direction does no matter
Agenda setting, priming, legitimacy
Would the radical right suffer if all other parties stopped
talking about their issues?
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (3/11)

10. Introduction
Dynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
What’s the problem (II)?
Tested this in two different multi-level models (respondents
nested in surveys/country-years)
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (4/11)

11. Introduction
Dynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
What’s the problem (II)?
Tested this in two different multi-level models (respondents
nested in surveys/country-years)
But: Downsian parties act strategically
Salience could be a reaction to previous radical right success
Our findings spurious?
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (4/11)

12. Introduction
Dynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
What’s the problem (II)?
Tested this in two different multi-level models (respondents
nested in surveys/country-years)
But: Downsian parties act strategically
Salience could be a reaction to previous radical right success
Our findings spurious?
Salience a cause or a consequence of radical right success?
Chicken – egg problem
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (4/11)

13. Introduction
Dynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
A different approach: VAR (I)
Effect of previous radical right success very difficult to
incorporate into full multi-level models
Multicollinearity
Interpretation
Structure of the data set
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (5/11)

14. Introduction
Dynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
A different approach: VAR (I)
Effect of previous radical right success very difficult to
incorporate into full multi-level models
Multicollinearity
Interpretation
Structure of the data set
Ignore micro-level → macro-political analysis
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (5/11)

15. Introduction
Dynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
A different approach: VAR (I)
Effect of previous radical right success very difficult to
incorporate into full multi-level models
Multicollinearity
Interpretation
Structure of the data set
Ignore micro-level → macro-political analysis
No cross-level inference:
Manifestos and radical right success (as opposed to individual
votes) all system-level phenomena
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (5/11)

16. Introduction
Dynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
A different approach: VAR(II)
Statistical model: Vector Auto Regression (VAR)
Multivariate time-series analysis
Regress each variable (success/salience) on
Its own past values
The other variable’s past values (4 lags = 2 years)
Immigration and unemployment as controls
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (6/11)

17. Introduction
Dynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
A different approach: VAR(II)
Statistical model: Vector Auto Regression (VAR)
Multivariate time-series analysis
Regress each variable (success/salience) on
Its own past values
The other variable’s past values (4 lags = 2 years)
Immigration and unemployment as controls
Addresses two questions:
1. ‘Granger causality’: significant improvement of predictions?
2. Dynamic analysis: short and medium-term impact of random
shocks
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (6/11)

18. Introduction
Dynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
A different approach: VAR(II)
Statistical model: Vector Auto Regression (VAR)
Multivariate time-series analysis
Regress each variable (success/salience) on
Its own past values
The other variable’s past values (4 lags = 2 years)
Immigration and unemployment as controls
Addresses two questions:
1. ‘Granger causality’: significant improvement of predictions?
2. Dynamic analysis: short and medium-term impact of random
shocks
So far, for France only (Eurobarometer 1980–2002)
Limitations of data and design
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (6/11)

19. Introduction
Dynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
What Are the Main Findings?
Previous levels of salience significantly improve prediction of
radical right success
Previous levels of radical right success do not significantly
improve predictions for salience – no ‘Granger causality’
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (7/11)

20. Introduction
Dynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
What Are the Main Findings?
Previous levels of salience significantly improve prediction of
radical right success
Previous levels of radical right success do not significantly
improve predictions for salience – no ‘Granger causality’
Not a straightforward test of causality (would require
experimental design)
But circumstantial evidence in support of salience as a cause,
not a consequence
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (7/11)

21. Introduction
Dynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
Consequences of a flash success: nil
-.2
0
.2
.4
.6
0 5 10
order1, rexvote, salienzmean
68% CI impulse response function (irf)
step
Graphs by irfname, impulse variable, and response variable
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (8/11)

22. Introduction
Dynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
Conclusion
Findings for France support Arzheimer and Carter, 2006,
but. . .
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (9/11)

23. Introduction
Dynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
Conclusion
Findings for France support Arzheimer and Carter, 2006,
but. . .
Very low number of observations within France (n = 35)
Requires interpolation
Media content as an additional control/factor?
Other countries in Western Europe?
Handling of missing surveys (not a big deal in France)
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (9/11)

24. Introduction
Dynamics of radical right salience and support
Conclusion
Conclusion
Findings for France support Arzheimer and Carter, 2006,
but. . .
Very low number of observations within France (n = 35)
Requires interpolation
Media content as an additional control/factor?
Other countries in Western Europe?
Handling of missing surveys (not a big deal in France)
Thanks for your time!
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (9/11)

25. References
Bibliography I
Arzheimer, Kai (2009). “Contextual Factors and the Extreme
Right Vote in Western Europe, 1980–2002”. In: American Journal
of Political Science 53.2, pp. 259–275. url:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00369.x.
Arzheimer, Kai and Elisabeth Carter (2006). “Political Opportunity
Structures and Right-Wing Extremist Party Success”. In: European
Journal of Political Research 45, pp. 419–443.
Golder, Matt (2003a). “Electoral Institutions, Unemployment and
Extreme Right Parties. A Correction”. In: British Journal of
Political Science 33, pp. 525–534.
— (2003b). “Explaining Variation in the Success of Extreme Right
Parties in Western Europe”. In: Comparative Political Studies 36,
pp. 432–466.
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (10/11)

26. References
Bibliography II
Jackman, Robert W. and Karin Volpert (1996). “Conditions
Favouring Parties of the Extreme Right in Western Europe”. In:
British Journal of Political Science 26, pp. 501–521.
Knigge, Pia (1998). “The Ecological Correlates of Right-Wing
Extremism in Western Europe”. In: European Journal of Political
Research 34, pp. 249–279.
Lubbers, Marcel, M´erove Gijsberts, and Peer Scheepers (2002).
“Extreme Right-Wing Voting in Western Europe”. In: European
Journal of Political Research 41, pp. 345–378.
Swank, Duane and Hans-Georg Betz (2003). “Globalization, the
Welfare State and Right-Wing Populism in Western Europe”. In:
Socio-Economic Review 1, pp. 215–245.
Kai Arzheimer Radical Right Dynamics (11/11)