5. IF A PROJECT HAS NO RISKS, DON'T DO IT.
Tom DeMarco & Timothy Lister
DON’T DO IT
T. DEMARCO, T. LISTER: WALTZING WITH BEARS
6. ACCURACY IN ESTIMATING DID NOT IMPROVE AS
INFORMATION ACCUMULATED, WHILE
CONFIDENCE INCREASED CONSISTENTLY.
Claire Tsai, Joshua Klayman, Reid Hastie
ACCURACY OF ESTIMATION
SOURCE: TSAI, KLAYMAN, HASTIE: EFFECTS OF AMOUNT OF INFORMATION ON JUDGMENT ACCURACY AND CONFIDENCE
7. SCIENTISTS AND WRITERS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY PRONE TO
UNDERESTIMATE THE TIME REQUIRED TO
COMPLETE A PROJECT, EVEN WHEN THEY HAVE
CONSIDERABLE EXPERIENCE OF PAST FAILURES
TO LIVE UP TO PLANNED SCHEDULES.
A SIMILAR BIAS HAS BEEN DOCUMENTED IN
ENGINEERS' ESTIMATES.
Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky
ESTIMATION BIAS
15. COUNTING THE NUMBER OF STORIES METRIC
DOESN'T TAKE THE SIZE INTO ACCOUNT. IT
TURNS OUT IT DOESN'T MATTER. THE SIZE OF
STORIES IS GELLED TO A VERY COMMON SIZE.
WE COULD USE THROUGHPUT VERY
SUCCESSFULLY WITH THE RESEARCH.
Larry Maccherone
THROUGHPUT VS STORY POINTS
85. ANY PROPOSED FORECASTING METHOD
JUST HAS TO BE BETTER THAN WHAT
YOU DO NOW, OR AT LEAST LESS
EXPENSIVE WITH A SIMILAR RESULT.
Troy Magennis
BE BETTER