Given the country's lack of a strong Catholic culture, extraordinarily high levels of medical expenditure, and the dominance of private-sector actors in the health market, the regulation of bioethical issues in Germany is surprisingly restrictive. Recent legislation on Preimplantation Genetic Diagnosis (PGD) is a case in point: Only under considerable external pressure and with a bare cross-partisan parliamentary majority did Germany move from a complete ban to a new set of rules that are still much more restrictive than those in Belgium or the UK. An analysis of legislators' preferences (Arzheimer 2015) suggests that comparatively high levels of religiosity as well as the existence of a 'blue-green' issue coalition is responsible for this restraint. Citizens, on the other hand, seemed to show higher levels of support for the new regime and perhaps even support for further liberalisation. Although PGD is currently a niche issue, the existence of such a representational gap demands scholarly and political attention, because the ethical issues associated with Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART) and other advanced medical techniques will become more and more salient in Western societies in the coming years. In my talk, I will present first findings from a large-scale survey experiments that looks into the preferences of the general public on PGD and a number of similar issues. More specifically, I investigate four inter-related questions: 1) Is there indeed a sizeable gap between MPs' and citizens' preferences on PGD? 2) Would citizens support a further liberalisation of the PGD regime? 3) Are citizens' preferences shaped by the same determinants as those of their MPs? 4) Can the gap between citizens and MPs be narrowed by making citizens reflect on arguments from a parliamentary debate? More information here: http://www.kai-arzheimer.com/deliberation-not-reduce-gap-citizens-legislators-ethical-preferences/

1. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
Does deliberation reduce the gap between citizens’
and legislator’s ethical preferences? First results
from a large-scale survey experiment
Kai Arzheimer
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (1/32)

2. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
What is this all about?
Germany has recently moved from a complete ban on
Preimplantation Genetic Diagnosis (PGD) to a slightly more
liberal regime
But even this modest liberalisation was unexpected
(Slightly dated) circumstantial evidence suggests that the
general public holds more liberal attitudes on this issue than
MPs
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (2/32)

3. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
What is this all about?
This study tests . . .
Whether there is indeed a sizeable gap between MPs’ and
citizens’ preferences re PGD
Whether this can be narrowed by making citizens reflect on
arguments from a parliamentary debate
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (2/32)

4. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
What is PGD?
A procedure used in the context of In Vitro (extracorporeal)
Fertilisation (IVF)
IVF usually results in several fertilised egg cells (blastocysts),
which are cultivated for five to six days outside the body
Blastocysts are visually assessed for viability before 2-3
transferred to uterus
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (3/32)

5. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
What is PGD?
A procedure used in the context of In Vitro (extracorporeal)
Fertilisation (IVF)
IVF usually results in several fertilised egg cells (blastocysts),
which are cultivated for five to six days outside the body
Blastocysts are visually assessed for viability before 2-3
transferred to uterus
PGD = Additionally testing blastocysts for severe genetic
disorders before implantation
Widely available in Belgium, Netherlands, UK; complete ban in
Austria, Ireland, Italy
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (3/32)

6. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
Why should this matter?
Currently more than 50,000 women undergoing the procedure
each year, resulting in at least 170,000 testable blastocysts
(possibly many more)
Numbers likely to rise further (demographics and fertility)
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (4/32)

7. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
Why should this matter?
Currently more than 50,000 women undergoing the procedure
each year, resulting in at least 170,000 testable blastocysts
(possibly many more)
Numbers likely to rise further (demographics and fertility)
PGD
Can increase the generally low success rate of IVF
Can massively reduce the risk of miscarriage
Can thereby reduce costs & reduce the burden on women’s
health
But is deemed ethically controversial
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (4/32)

8. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
Why should this matter?
Currently more than 50,000 women undergoing the procedure
each year, resulting in at least 170,000 testable blastocysts
(possibly many more)
Numbers likely to rise further (demographics and fertility)
PGD
Can increase the generally low success rate of IVF
Can massively reduce the risk of miscarriage
Can thereby reduce costs & reduce the burden on women’s
health
But is deemed ethically controversial
Huge commercial interest
A a good proxy for other bioethical issues, whose salience will
increase
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (4/32)

9. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
Why should this matter?
Currently more than 50,000 women undergoing the procedure
each year, resulting in at least 170,000 testable blastocysts
(possibly many more)
Numbers likely to rise further (demographics and fertility)
PGD
Can increase the generally low success rate of IVF
Can massively reduce the risk of miscarriage
Can thereby reduce costs & reduce the burden on women’s
health
But is deemed ethically controversial
Huge commercial interest
A a good proxy for other bioethical issues, whose salience will
increase
An example for programmatic overlap of New Left/Centre Right
positions on the liberal/authoritarian dimension
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (4/32)

10. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
Germany’s bioethics legislation – “an extreme outlier”
The 2011 vote on PGD
Capitalism & Catholics
Germany should be at forefront of Assisted Reproductive
Technology (ART)
Flourishing pharmaceutical industry
One of the most generous/expensive health care systems of the
world & dominant role of private providers
Trend towards late parenthood
Post-unification, less than 1/3 (nominal) Catholics
Strong Christian Democratic parties should politicise moral
issues, resulting in liberal rules (Engeli et al. 2013)
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (5/32)

11. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
Germany’s bioethics legislation – “an extreme outlier”
The 2011 vote on PGD
Liberal rules & contradictions
Early, liberal legislation in moral policy domains (e.g. 1975
abortion law)
Full range of prenatal testing available, 1995 amendment de
facto legalises (late) abortions of babies with (minor) defects
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (6/32)

12. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
Germany’s bioethics legislation – “an extreme outlier”
The 2011 vote on PGD
Liberal rules & contradictions
Early, liberal legislation in moral policy domains (e.g. 1975
abortion law)
Full range of prenatal testing available, 1995 amendment de
facto legalises (late) abortions of babies with (minor) defects
But 1990 Embryo Protection Act (EPA) gives absolute
protection to fertilised egg cells before implantation
Left parties voted against EPA in 1990 b/c they demanded even
stricter rules
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (6/32)

13. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
Germany’s bioethics legislation – “an extreme outlier”
The 2011 vote on PGD
Liberal rules & contradictions
Early, liberal legislation in moral policy domains (e.g. 1975
abortion law)
Full range of prenatal testing available, 1995 amendment de
facto legalises (late) abortions of babies with (minor) defects
But 1990 Embryo Protection Act (EPA) gives absolute
protection to fertilised egg cells before implantation
Left parties voted against EPA in 1990 b/c they demanded even
stricter rules
“Normal” conflict over gay rights, abortion,
But genetics, embryology, stem cells: depoliticised & almost
completely banned
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (6/32)

14. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
Germany’s bioethics legislation – “an extreme outlier”
The 2011 vote on PGD
The past as a possible explanation
Nazis committed genocide on the basis of (alleged) genetic
traits
Also killed at least 70,000 “Aryans” with (assumed) genetic
disorders and other disabilities
Generally promoted eugenics
Even launched a program (“Lebensborn”) for abducting,
adopting, and breeding “Aryan” offspring for the SS in Germany
and occupied countries
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (7/32)

15. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
Germany’s bioethics legislation – “an extreme outlier”
The 2011 vote on PGD
The past as a possible explanation
Nazis committed genocide on the basis of (alleged) genetic
traits
Also killed at least 70,000 “Aryans” with (assumed) genetic
disorders and other disabilities
Generally promoted eugenics
Even launched a program (“Lebensborn”) for abducting,
adopting, and breeding “Aryan” offspring for the SS in Germany
and occupied countries
New Left began mobilising against ART b/c of alleged similarity
with National Socialism as early as 1985
Emergence of “blue/green” Christian/Catholic/Conservative &
Feminist/Environmentalist/Disabilities issue coalition against
ART and biotechnology
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (7/32)

16. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
Germany’s bioethics legislation – “an extreme outlier”
The 2011 vote on PGD
Why a vote?
MPs assumed that EPA implied total ban on PGD; re-affirmed
this view in 2002
But in 2010, owner of a fertility clinic forced court ruling that
declared PGD legal unless explicitly banned
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (8/32)

17. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
Germany’s bioethics legislation – “an extreme outlier”
The 2011 vote on PGD
Why a vote?
MPs assumed that EPA implied total ban on PGD; re-affirmed
this view in 2002
But in 2010, owner of a fertility clinic forced court ruling that
declared PGD legal unless explicitly banned
Bundestag held free vote in 2011
No whipping
No advice/recommendations by party leaderships, instead three
nominally cross-partisan groups; three draft bills
(Took years to implement b/c of translation into administrative
law & creation of sub-national structures)
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (8/32)

18. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
Germany’s bioethics legislation – “an extreme outlier”
The 2011 vote on PGD
What was at stake?
Draft Bills
1. Complete ban (38%)
2. PGD permissible if history/high risk of stillbirth, miscarriage,
death of child within first year of birth (10%)
3. As 2., plus severe genetic diseases (51%)
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (9/32)

19. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
Germany’s bioethics legislation – “an extreme outlier”
The 2011 vote on PGD
What was at stake?
Draft Bills
1. Complete ban (38%)
2. PGD permissible if history/high risk of stillbirth, miscarriage,
death of child within first year of birth (10%)
3. As 2., plus severe genetic diseases (51%)
Either way, PGD still illegal, but no punishment for women,
doctors if procedures are followed:
Women have to appeal to regional ethic boards for permission
to have testing performed
Health providers will carry the costs if permission granted
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (9/32)

20. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
Germany’s bioethics legislation – “an extreme outlier”
The 2011 vote on PGD
What was at stake?
Draft Bills
1. Complete ban (38%)
2. PGD permissible if history/high risk of stillbirth, miscarriage,
death of child within first year of birth (10%)
3. As 2., plus severe genetic diseases (51%)
Either way, PGD still illegal, but no punishment for women,
doctors if procedures are followed:
Women have to appeal to regional ethic boards for permission
to have testing performed
Health providers will carry the costs if permission granted
Third bill was passed by a majority 55% in second vote
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (9/32)

21. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
Germany’s bioethics legislation – “an extreme outlier”
The 2011 vote on PGD
How cross-partisan were the groups?
1. Headed by (Kauder) leader of Christian Democrats in
Bundestag & Göring-Eckardt (Green frontrunner and leader of
caucus in 2013), both vocal Christians
2. Headed by Hinz (Greens) and Röspel (SPD), both known for
restrictive views on stem cell research
3. Headed by Hintze (CDU) and Flach (FDP), both known for
having liberal views on stem cell research
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (10/32)

22. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
Germany’s bioethics legislation – “an extreme outlier”
The 2011 vote on PGD
What other factors could have played a role?
Gender
Affiliations with churches & other religious organisations
Affiliations with medical professions & disability groups
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (11/32)

23. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
Germany’s bioethics legislation – “an extreme outlier”
The 2011 vote on PGD
What other factors could have played a role?
Gender
Affiliations with churches & other religious organisations
Affiliations with medical professions & disability groups
The public?
Relatively little media coverage
Small number of surveys shows low levels of information . . .
. . . but remarkably liberal preferences
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (11/32)

24. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
Germany’s bioethics legislation – “an extreme outlier”
The 2011 vote on PGD
A model for the legislative vote on PGD (second round)
Gender: (male)
Party affiliation: (CDU), SPD, CSU, FDP, Greens, Left
Denomination: (not stated), Catholic, Protestant, none/other
√
number of affiliations with Christian groups
√
number of affiliations with disability groups
Connection to medical sector: (no)
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (12/32)

25. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
Germany’s bioethics legislation – “an extreme outlier”
The 2011 vote on PGD
Some descriptives
Female: 32%
Denomination: 42% no statement, 27% Catholics (population:
29%), 27% Protestants (population: 27%), 4% non-believers or
other religions
Christian charities and other groups: 22% have at least one
affiliation (population: less than 10% say religion is “very
important part” of their lives)
Disability groups: 7% have at least one affiliation
Medical sector: few doctors, but about 6% have some
connection
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (13/32)

26. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
Germany’s bioethics legislation – “an extreme outlier”
The 2011 vote on PGD
Findings I
Being female & affiliations with disability groups have no
statistically significant effects
In line with framing/positions in parliamentary debate
Having some connection to medical sector has borderline
significant positive effect
In line with über-cautious position of GMC and
More vocal support from specialist associations
But denomination & religiosity make a big difference
So does party affiliation (even after controlling for religion)
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (14/32)

27. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
Germany’s bioethics legislation – “an extreme outlier”
The 2011 vote on PGD
Findings II: Religion
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
PredictedProbability
0 1 2 3
# Christian affiliations
Catholic Protestant Not stated
Denomination:
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (15/32)

28. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
Germany’s bioethics legislation – “an extreme outlier”
The 2011 vote on PGD
Findings III: Party affiliation
Mainstream Christian Democrats: 40% support, but Bavarian
Christian Democrats (CSU) only 17% support for liberalisation
SPD: mostly in favour, and FDP (almost) unanimously in favour
Greens and Left (!) do not differ significantly from CDU MPs
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (16/32)

29. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
A large-scale survey experiment
Findings
Why bother?
PGD not a very salient, but potentially very relevant (see above)
Surveys commissioned by media around the 2011 vote
suggested support of up 80 per cent for liberalisation . . .
. . . that was passed with a relatively small majority
To overcome impasse, Bundestag needed external trigger & free
vote
Christian Democratic/Green coalitions now more common at
state level, perhaps even an option for 2017
How would citizens chose?
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (17/32)

30. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
A large-scale survey experiment
Findings
How would citizens chose . . .
. . . if properly sampled?
. . . if given an extended set of choices?
. . . if confronted with arguments from parliamentary debate?
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (18/32)

31. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
A large-scale survey experiment
Findings
Data collection
Funding by German Research Foundation (DFG)
Ca. 2,000 face-to-face interviews (CAPI) conducted by Infratest
over a five-week period in summer 2016
Moderate oversampling of East Germans
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (19/32)

32. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
A large-scale survey experiment
Findings
Data collection
Funding by German Research Foundation (DFG)
Ca. 2,000 face-to-face interviews (CAPI) conducted by Infratest
over a five-week period in summer 2016
Moderate oversampling of East Germans
Short, neutral primers on IVF/PGD
2 × 2 design
Let respondents chose between 3 options / 5 options
Before / after asking them 16 arguments from the plenary
debate
Additional options:
allow PGD for any (potential) carriers of genetic disorders (UK)
allow PGD for everyone (Belgium)
Other batteries
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (19/32)

33. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
A large-scale survey experiment
Findings
Background information on IVF/PGD
317100245
WAS IST KÜNSTLICHE BEFRUCHTUNG UND PRÄIMPLANTATIONSDIAGNOSTIK?
Die künstliche Befruchtung kann Paaren
helfen, Kinder zu bekommen.
Dabei werden Eizellen im Reagenzglas mit
Samenzellen zusammengebracht. Wenn die
Befruchtung gelingt, werden die befruchteten
Eizellen nach einigen Tagen in die Gebär-
mutter der Frau eingepflanzt.
Eltern, die an einer Erbkrankheit leiden oder
die Veranlagung dafür tragen, geben diese mit
einer gewissen Wahrscheinlichkeit an ihre
Nachkommen weiter. Manche Kinder sind
gesund, manche sind nur Überträger der
Anlagen, wieder andere erkranken selbst. In
einigen Fällen sind diese Erkrankungen so
schwer, dass die Kinder noch im Mutterleib
oder kurz nach der Geburt sterben.
Seit einigen Jahren gibt es die Möglichkeit, die künstlich befruchteten Eizellen
vor der Einpflanzung in den Mutterleib auf Defekte am Erbgut zu untersuchen.
Dies bezeichnet man als Präimplantationsdiagnostik (PID).
Hierfür wird dem Embryo ca. 3 Tage
nach der künstlichen Befruchtung eine
Zelle entnommen und auf genetische
Defekte untersucht.
Anschließend werden der Frau nur
gesunde Embryonen eingepflanzt.
Embryonen, deren Erbgut erkennbar
geschädigt ist, werden weggeworfen.
Liste 1
SamenspendeEizellspende
Befruchtung im
Reagenzglas
PID ist die Suche nach
Gendefekten bzw.
Erbkrankheiten …
… bei Embryos, die
durch künstliche
Befruchtung
entstanden sind und
sich im Achtzell-
Stadium befinden
(ca. am 3. Tag).
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (20/32)

34. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
A large-scale survey experiment
Findings
The experimental component
Group I
1st measurement
3 options
Confrontation
with arguments
Group I
2nd measurement
3 options
Group II
1st measurement
5 options
Confrontation
with arguments
Group II
2nd Measurement
5 options
Randomisation
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (21/32)

35. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
A large-scale survey experiment
Findings
Did they have any previous knowledge?
IVF
%
never heard about it 6.2
heard a little 41.2
heard a lot but gave little thought 43.2
gave a lot of thought 9.4
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (22/32)

36. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
A large-scale survey experiment
Findings
Did they have any previous knowledge?
IVF
%
never heard about it 6.2
heard a little 41.2
heard a lot but gave little thought 43.2
gave a lot of thought 9.4
PGD
%
never heard about it 29.8
heard a little 36.7
heard a lot but gave little thought 26.7
gave a lot of thought 6.8
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (22/32)

37. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
A large-scale survey experiment
Findings
What were the arguments, and where did they come from?
Lengthy plenary debate before final vote
16 arguments in favour/against liberalisation, boiled down to a
single statement
Respondents asked to think about each statement, then
measure agreement
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (23/32)

38. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
A large-scale survey experiment
Findings
What were the arguments, and where did they come from?
Lengthy plenary debate before final vote
16 arguments in favour/against liberalisation, boiled down to a
single statement
Respondents asked to think about each statement, then
measure agreement
Examples
“Legalising PGD will lead to discrimination against handicapped
people”
“PGD is a lifeline for couples in a very difficult situation”
“It’s a slippery slope: Any liberalisation will eventually to more
and more testing”
“PGD can prevent unnecessary suffering”
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (23/32)

39. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
A large-scale survey experiment
Findings
How long did respondents take to evaluate the arguments?
0
.05
.1
.15
.2
Density
0 10 20 30 40
Time to evaluate arguments (minutes)
Median: 4:30 min ; Mean: 5:10 min
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (24/32)

40. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
A large-scale survey experiment
Findings
Did they find it difficult to make up their mind?
0
.1
.2
.3
Fraction
very easy very difficult
Easy/Difficult to decide?
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (25/32)

41. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
A large-scale survey experiment
Findings
What do citizens want?
%
complete ban 13.6
stillbirth/death 26.3
severe genetic diseases 60.1
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (26/32)

42. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
A large-scale survey experiment
Findings
What do citizens want?
%
complete ban 13.6
stillbirth/death 26.3
severe genetic diseases 60.1
Party ID, education, age group, denomination, (gender): no
(significant) differences
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (26/32)

43. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
A large-scale survey experiment
Findings
What do citizens want?
%
complete ban 13.6
stillbirth/death 26.3
severe genetic diseases 60.1
Party ID, education, age group, denomination, (gender): no
(significant) differences
But strong effect of self-stated religiosity
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (26/32)

44. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
A large-scale survey experiment
Findings
Religiosity and citizens’ preferences
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
Probability
not at all very
religiosity
Predictive Margins with 95% CIs
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (27/32)

45. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
A large-scale survey experiment
Findings
Does deliberation make a difference?
%
complete ban 13.6
stillbirth/death 26.3
severe genetic diseases 60.1
%
complete ban 12.1
stillbirth/death 27.0
severe genetic diseases 60.9
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (28/32)

46. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
A large-scale survey experiment
Findings
Does deliberation make a difference?
%
complete ban 13.6
stillbirth/death 26.3
severe genetic diseases 60.1
%
complete ban 12.1
stillbirth/death 27.0
severe genetic diseases 60.9
Citizens still more liberal than lawmakers, religiosity still matters
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (28/32)

47. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
A large-scale survey experiment
Findings
Does deliberation make a difference?
%
complete ban 13.6
stillbirth/death 26.3
severe genetic diseases 60.1
%
complete ban 12.1
stillbirth/death 27.0
severe genetic diseases 60.9
Citizens still more liberal than lawmakers, religiosity still matters
9.8% become more conservative, 8.7% become more liberal
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (28/32)

48. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
A large-scale survey experiment
Findings
Does deliberation make a difference?
%
complete ban 13.6
stillbirth/death 26.3
severe genetic diseases 60.1
%
complete ban 12.1
stillbirth/death 27.0
severe genetic diseases 60.9
Citizens still more liberal than lawmakers, religiosity still matters
9.8% become more conservative, 8.7% become more liberal
Think: “more liberal” respondents +29 seconds, “more
conservative” +69 seconds
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (28/32)

49. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
A large-scale survey experiment
Findings
Does deliberation make a difference?
%
complete ban 13.6
stillbirth/death 26.3
severe genetic diseases 60.1
%
complete ban 12.1
stillbirth/death 27.0
severe genetic diseases 60.9
Citizens still more liberal than lawmakers, religiosity still matters
9.8% become more conservative, 8.7% become more liberal
Think: “more liberal” respondents +29 seconds, “more
conservative” +69 seconds
“Severe genetic diseases” is most stable choice (91.7%),
“stillbirth” least stable (78.5%)
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (28/32)

50. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
A large-scale survey experiment
Findings
Does deliberation make a difference?
%
complete ban 13.6
stillbirth/death 26.3
severe genetic diseases 60.1
%
complete ban 12.1
stillbirth/death 27.0
severe genetic diseases 60.9
Citizens still more liberal than lawmakers, religiosity still matters
9.8% become more conservative, 8.7% become more liberal
Think: “more liberal” respondents +29 seconds, “more
conservative” +69 seconds
“Severe genetic diseases” is most stable choice (91.7%),
“stillbirth” least stable (78.5%)
“stillbirth” → “severe genetic diseases” is biggest change
(18.6%)
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (28/32)

51. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
A large-scale survey experiment
Findings
What if we give them more choices?
control experiment
% %
complete ban 13.6 9.1
stillbirth/death 26.3 11.6
severe genetic diseases 60.1 24.2
all genetic diseases 0.0 18.6
everyone 0.0 36.5
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (29/32)

52. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
A large-scale survey experiment
Findings
What if we give them more choices?
control experiment
% %
complete ban 13.6 9.1
stillbirth/death 26.3 11.6
severe genetic diseases 60.1 24.2
all genetic diseases 0.0 18.6
everyone 0.0 36.5
γ = 0.63 (p<0.00)
Majority (54%) for liberalisation beyond current status quo
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (29/32)

53. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
A large-scale survey experiment
Findings
What if we give them more choices?
control experiment
% %
complete ban 13.6 9.1
stillbirth/death 26.3 11.6
severe genetic diseases 60.1 24.2
all genetic diseases 0.0 18.6
everyone 0.0 36.5
γ = 0.63 (p<0.00)
Majority (54%) for liberalisation beyond current status quo
But support for “stillbirth” also halved - anchoring?
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (29/32)

54. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
A large-scale survey experiment
Findings
What if we give them more choices?
control experiment
% %
complete ban 13.6 9.1
stillbirth/death 26.3 11.6
severe genetic diseases 60.1 24.2
all genetic diseases 0.0 18.6
everyone 0.0 36.5
γ = 0.63 (p<0.00)
Majority (54%) for liberalisation beyond current status quo
But support for “stillbirth” also halved - anchoring?
Preferences just as stable
No relationship between time of deliberation ↔ more
liberal/restrictive
“Everyone” most stable (93%), followed by “ban” (83%), others
74-80%
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (29/32)

55. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
Summary
Citizens more liberal than lawmakers
Religiosity the only relevant factor (so far)
Willing to engage with arguments, but little change
Experimental variation of policy options suggests further
willingness to liberalise
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (30/32)

56. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
So . . .
1. Is there indeed a sizeable gap between MPs’ and citizens’
preferences on PGD?
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (31/32)

57. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
So . . .
1. Is there indeed a sizeable gap between MPs’ and citizens’
preferences on PGD? yes
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (31/32)

58. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
So . . .
1. Is there indeed a sizeable gap between MPs’ and citizens’
preferences on PGD? yes
2. Would citizens support a further liberalisation of the PGD
regime?
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (31/32)

59. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
So . . .
1. Is there indeed a sizeable gap between MPs’ and citizens’
preferences on PGD? yes
2. Would citizens support a further liberalisation of the PGD
regime? yes
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (31/32)

60. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
So . . .
1. Is there indeed a sizeable gap between MPs’ and citizens’
preferences on PGD? yes
2. Would citizens support a further liberalisation of the PGD
regime? yes
3. Are citizens’ preferences shaped by the same determinants as
those of their MPs?
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (31/32)

61. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
So . . .
1. Is there indeed a sizeable gap between MPs’ and citizens’
preferences on PGD? yes
2. Would citizens support a further liberalisation of the PGD
regime? yes
3. Are citizens’ preferences shaped by the same determinants as
those of their MPs? yes/no
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (31/32)

62. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
So . . .
1. Is there indeed a sizeable gap between MPs’ and citizens’
preferences on PGD? yes
2. Would citizens support a further liberalisation of the PGD
regime? yes
3. Are citizens’ preferences shaped by the same determinants as
those of their MPs? yes/no
4. Can the gap between citizens and MPs be narrowed by making
citizens reflect on arguments from a parliamentary debate?
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (31/32)

63. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
So . . .
1. Is there indeed a sizeable gap between MPs’ and citizens’
preferences on PGD? yes
2. Would citizens support a further liberalisation of the PGD
regime? yes
3. Are citizens’ preferences shaped by the same determinants as
those of their MPs? yes/no
4. Can the gap between citizens and MPs be narrowed by making
citizens reflect on arguments from a parliamentary debate? no
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (31/32)

64. Intro
What’s the matter with German MPs & PGD?
What’s the matter with German voters & PGD?
Summary/Conclusion
Outlook
Other factors?
Related policies/values
Personal experience
?
What next? Turn this project into proper manuscripts
(hopefully soon)
Kai Arzheimer Bioethical Preferences (32/32)