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Working Class Parties 2.0?Electoral Competition between the Extreme Rightand the Centre Left in Western EuropeKai Arzheimer
Photocredit: DHM
Photocredit: DHMPhotocredit: By Marie-Lan Nguyen(Own work) [CC-BY-3.0(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)],via Wik...
Photocredit: DHMPhotocredit: By Marie-Lan Nguyen(Own work) [CC-BY-3.0(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)],via Wik...
Outline: Extreme Right Working Class Parties???IntroductionTheoryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extrem...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryWhat is this all about?1. Is there a ‘proletarisation’ of the Extrem...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryWhy is this relevant?Extreme Right parties now permanent feature of ...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryWhy is this relevant?Extreme Right parties now permanent feature of ...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right Com...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right Com...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right Com...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right Com...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right Com...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right Com...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right Com...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right Com...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right Com...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right Com...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right Com...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right Com...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right Com...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right Com...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right Com...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right Com...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryDataModels & MethodsMicro level dataEurobarometer 1980-2003 (Mannhei...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryDataModels & MethodsMicro level dataEurobarometer 1980-2003 (Mannhei...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryDataModels & MethodsEurobarometer coverageSEPTNONLLUITGRFRFIESDKDE−W...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryDataModels & MethodsMacro/Meso level dataUnemployment rates/benefits:...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryDataModels & MethodsMacro/Meso level dataUnemployment rates/benefits:...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryDataModels & MethodsWhat do the models look like?Multi-level binary ...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryDataModels & MethodsWhat models?1. Effect of class on the Extreme Rig...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryDataModels & MethodsWhat models?1. Effect of class on the Extreme Rig...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?What is Prolet...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?What is Prolet...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?What is Prolet...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Who is a worke...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Who is a worke...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Who is a worke...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Class and the ...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Class and the ...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Class and the ...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Class and the ...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Class and the ...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Class and the ...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?What strategie...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Which macro/me...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Which macro/me...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Does the Centr...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Centre Left or...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?What does that...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Centre Left or...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?What does that...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Centre Left or...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?What does that...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Centre Left or...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?What does that...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummarySummaryQ: Is there a ‘proletarisation’?Kai Arzheimer Working Class P...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummarySummaryQ: Is there a ‘proletarisation’? A: ‘Petty bourgeoisie’ lost ...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummarySummaryQ: Is there a ‘proletarisation’? A: ‘Petty bourgeoisie’ lost ...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummarySummaryQ: Is there a ‘proletarisation’? A: ‘Petty bourgeoisie’ lost ...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummarySummaryQ: Is there a ‘proletarisation’? A: ‘Petty bourgeoisie’ lost ...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummarySummaryQ: Is there a ‘proletarisation’? A: ‘Petty bourgeoisie’ lost ...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryConclusionCentre Left sandwiched between New Left and New Right‘Defu...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryConclusionCentre Left sandwiched between New Left and New Right‘Defu...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryDescriptive Statistics Imin p25 mean p75 maxXR vote 0.00 0.00 0.04 0...
IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryDescriptive Statistics IImin p25 mean p75 maxXR vote 0.00 0.00 0.12 ...
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Electoral Competition between the Extreme Right and the Centre Left

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Electoral Competition between the Extreme Right and the Centre Left

  1. 1. Working Class Parties 2.0?Electoral Competition between the Extreme Rightand the Centre Left in Western EuropeKai Arzheimer
  2. 2. Photocredit: DHM
  3. 3. Photocredit: DHMPhotocredit: By Marie-Lan Nguyen(Own work) [CC-BY-3.0(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)],via Wikimedia Commons
  4. 4. Photocredit: DHMPhotocredit: By Marie-Lan Nguyen(Own work) [CC-BY-3.0(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)],via Wikimedia CommonsPhotocredit: By Friedrich Heinzl,9322 Micheldorf near St. Veit a.d.Glan, K¨arnten, ¨Osterreich[CC-BY-SA-2.5(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.5)], via Wikimedia Commons
  5. 5. Outline: Extreme Right Working Class Parties???IntroductionTheoryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right CompetitionData, Models, MethodsDataModels & MethodsFindingsThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Summary
  6. 6. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryWhat is this all about?1. Is there a ‘proletarisation’ of the Extreme Right?2. Does context matter for this process?3. What can the Centre Left do about it?Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (4/36)
  7. 7. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryWhy is this relevant?Extreme Right parties now permanent feature of many WestEuropean party systemsAustria, Belgium, Denmark, France, (Germany), Italy,Netherlands, Norway . . .Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (5/36)
  8. 8. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryWhy is this relevant?Extreme Right parties now permanent feature of many WestEuropean party systemsAustria, Belgium, Denmark, France, (Germany), Italy,Netherlands, Norway . . .Questions:Legitimacy?Changing dimensionality of competition?Electoral losses?Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (5/36)
  9. 9. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right CompetitionWhat parties are we talking about?Proliferation of new/remodelled ‘right’ parties since 1980sGenerally not simply a throwback from 1930s (but some are)Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (6/36)
  10. 10. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right CompetitionWhat parties are we talking about?Proliferation of new/remodelled ‘right’ parties since 1980sGenerally not simply a throwback from 1930s (but some are)Rarely (openly) anti-democraticOften populist/anti-eliteNot fully integrated (segmentation)Range of positions on economic/social issuesObsessed with non-Western Immigrants (more recently Muslims)Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (6/36)
  11. 11. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right CompetitionWhat parties are we talking about?Proliferation of new/remodelled ‘right’ parties since 1980sGenerally not simply a throwback from 1930s (but some are)Rarely (openly) anti-democraticOften populist/anti-eliteNot fully integrated (segmentation)Range of positions on economic/social issuesObsessed with non-Western Immigrants (more recently Muslims)Go by many names: Anti-Immigrant / New / Populist /Radical / Extreme Right . . .Mudde (1996): ‘We know who they are . . . ’Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (6/36)
  12. 12. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right CompetitionWho loses?Spatial and directional models → Centre-Right partiesCorroborated by (highly) aggregated data (Gallagher, Laverand Mair, 2011)New Left/Greens not affectedKai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (7/36)
  13. 13. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right CompetitionWho loses?Spatial and directional models → Centre-Right partiesCorroborated by (highly) aggregated data (Gallagher, Laverand Mair, 2011)New Left/Greens not affectedBut: Is the Centre Left safe? Would blue-collar workers turn tothe Extreme Right?Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (7/36)
  14. 14. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right CompetitionWhy would workers vote for the Extreme Right?1. Because they have done it in the past (Germany, Italy . . . )Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (8/36)
  15. 15. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right CompetitionWhy would workers vote for the Extreme Right?1. Because they have done it in the past (Germany, Italy . . . )2. As a result of dealignmentKai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (8/36)
  16. 16. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right CompetitionWhy would workers vote for the Extreme Right?1. Because they have done it in the past (Germany, Italy . . . )2. As a result of dealignment3. Because the political landscape and the ideology of the CentreLeft are changingKai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (8/36)
  17. 17. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right CompetitionHerbert Kitschelt’s 1995 view of West European partycompetitionsocialist capitalistlibertarianauthoritarianWSDRRKai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (9/36)
  18. 18. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right CompetitionEconomic voting and the Extreme RightExtreme Right:Flirt with ‘neo-liberal’ positions short-livedNow more centrist or even protectionist positionsIn some cases: welfare chauvinism and criticism of economicglobalisationCentre LeftMoved further to the centreTrying to appease middle-class voters (Keman, 2011)Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (10/36)
  19. 19. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right CompetitionEconomic voting and the Extreme RightExtreme Right:Flirt with ‘neo-liberal’ positions short-livedNow more centrist or even protectionist positionsIn some cases: welfare chauvinism and criticism of economicglobalisationCentre LeftMoved further to the centreTrying to appease middle-class voters (Keman, 2011)‘Authoritarian workers’ becoming available for Extreme Right?Proletarisation of the Extreme Right?Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (10/36)
  20. 20. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right CompetitionAn updated perspective on West European partycompetitionsocialist capitalistlibertarianauthoritarianWSDRRKai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (11/36)
  21. 21. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right CompetitionAn updated perspective on West European partycompetitionsocialist capitalistlibertarianauthoritarianWSDRRKai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (11/36)
  22. 22. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right CompetitionLifeboat MetaphorThe German Welfare State as a Lifeboat. Photocredit: Haus der Geschichte BonnKai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (12/36)
  23. 23. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right CompetitionSo . . .1. Is there a proletarisation of the Extreme Right?Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (13/36)
  24. 24. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryPolitical Space and the Extreme RightCentre Left / Extreme Right CompetitionSo . . .1. Is there a proletarisation of the Extreme Right?2. What factors to impact affect workers’ Extreme Right / CentreLeft choices?Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (13/36)
  25. 25. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryDataModels & MethodsMicro level dataEurobarometer 1980-2003 (Mannheim Trend File)Good coverage ofXR rise in 1980s, persistence, sometimes declineCentre Left shifts after end of cold warMany relevant systemsKai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (14/36)
  26. 26. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryDataModels & MethodsMicro level dataEurobarometer 1980-2003 (Mannheim Trend File)Good coverage ofXR rise in 1980s, persistence, sometimes declineCentre Left shifts after end of cold warMany relevant systemsBut . . .Little information on classBecoming slightly outdatedNo coverage of UK and SwitzerlandData for Austria, Finland, Sweden, Norway not available forwhole periodKai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (14/36)
  27. 27. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryDataModels & MethodsEurobarometer coverageSEPTNONLLUITGRFRFIESDKDE−WDE−OBEAT1980m1 1985m1 1990m1 1995m1 2000m1Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (15/36)
  28. 28. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryDataModels & MethodsMacro/Meso level dataUnemployment rates/benefits: OECDNew asylum applications: OECD, UNHCRIdeological positions: CMPKai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (16/36)
  29. 29. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryDataModels & MethodsMacro/Meso level dataUnemployment rates/benefits: OECDNew asylum applications: OECD, UNHCRIdeological positions: CMPPositions of mainstream partiesIndex: internationalism, multi-culturalism, national lifestyle, law& order (Arzheimer and Carter, 2006)Salience and variationKai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (16/36)
  30. 30. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryDataModels & MethodsWhat do the models look like?Multi-level binary logistic regressionRoughly 250,000 level-1 units (respondents)336 level-2 units (surveys within countries)Fixed country effectsEstimation: xtlogit (Stata)Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (17/36)
  31. 31. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryDataModels & MethodsWhat models?1. Effect of class on the Extreme Right voteStaticDynamicKai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (18/36)
  32. 32. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryDataModels & MethodsWhat models?1. Effect of class on the Extreme Right voteStaticDynamic2. Extreme Right vs Centre Left vote amongst working classvotersBaselineContext + party competitionKai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (18/36)
  33. 33. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?What is Proletarisation?ProletarisationSince the early 1980s, the Extreme Right has undergone aprocess of ‘proletarization and (uneven) radicalisation’(Ignazi, 2003, p. 216).Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (19/36)
  34. 34. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?What is Proletarisation?ProletarisationSince the early 1980s, the Extreme Right has undergone aprocess of ‘proletarization and (uneven) radicalisation’(Ignazi, 2003, p. 216).Strict interpretation: Workers dominating electorate (+membership + leadership + issues)?Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (19/36)
  35. 35. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?What is Proletarisation?ProletarisationSince the early 1980s, the Extreme Right has undergone aprocess of ‘proletarization and (uneven) radicalisation’(Ignazi, 2003, p. 216).Strict interpretation: Workers dominating electorate (+membership + leadership + issues)?Lose interpretation: Workers increasingly likely to vote for XR(+ positive attention to welfare)Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (19/36)
  36. 36. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Who is a worker / belongs to ‘working class’?. . .Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (20/36)
  37. 37. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Who is a worker / belongs to ‘working class’?. . .Eurobarometer: restricted to current occupation (ISCO)Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (20/36)
  38. 38. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Who is a worker / belongs to ‘working class’?. . .Eurobarometer: restricted to current occupation (ISCO)blue-collar jobs → ‘workers’farmers and small business owners → ‘petty bourgeoisie’w/o job → ‘unemployed’any other occupation → ‘other’pensioners etc → ‘retired’homemakers → like main earnerKai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (20/36)
  39. 39. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Class and the Extreme Right vote(1) (2)Worker 0.483∗∗∗(0.0277)Petty bourgeoisie 0.438∗∗∗(0.0347)Retired 0.0546(0.0282)Unemployed 0.555∗∗∗(0.0410)TimeWorker × TimeFarmer/Owner × TimeRetired × TimeUnemployed × TimeObservations 254726σu 0.720ρ 0.136Groups 336Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (21/36)
  40. 40. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Class and the Extreme Right vote(1) (2)Worker 0.483∗∗∗(0.0277)Petty bourgeoisie 0.438∗∗∗(0.0347)Retired 0.0546(0.0282)Unemployed 0.555∗∗∗(0.0410)TimeWorker × TimeFarmer/Owner × TimeRetired × TimeUnemployed × TimeObservations 254726σu 0.720ρ 0.136Groups 336What does that mean?Worker/petty bourgeoisie: roughlytwice as likely to vote for XR(unemployed!)Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (21/36)
  41. 41. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Class and the Extreme Right vote(1) (2)Worker 0.483∗∗∗ 0.441∗∗∗(0.0277) (0.0307)Petty bourgeoisie 0.438∗∗∗ 0.478∗∗∗(0.0347) (0.0363)Retired 0.0546 0.0563(0.0282) (0.0318)Unemployed 0.555∗∗∗ 0.552∗∗∗(0.0410) (0.0455)Time 0.00593∗∗∗(0.000666)Worker × Time 0.00176∗∗∗(0.000433)Farmer/Owner × Time -0.00207∗∗∗(0.000512)Retired × Time -0.0000549(0.000442)Unemployed × Time 0.000120(0.000665)Observations 254726 254726σu 0.720 0.621ρ 0.136 0.105Groups 336 336What does that mean?Worker/petty bourgeoisie: roughlytwice as likely to vote for XR(unemployed!)Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (21/36)
  42. 42. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Class and the Extreme Right vote(1) (2)Worker 0.483∗∗∗ 0.441∗∗∗(0.0277) (0.0307)Petty bourgeoisie 0.438∗∗∗ 0.478∗∗∗(0.0347) (0.0363)Retired 0.0546 0.0563(0.0282) (0.0318)Unemployed 0.555∗∗∗ 0.552∗∗∗(0.0410) (0.0455)Time 0.00593∗∗∗(0.000666)Worker × Time 0.00176∗∗∗(0.000433)Farmer/Owner × Time -0.00207∗∗∗(0.000512)Retired × Time -0.0000549(0.000442)Unemployed × Time 0.000120(0.000665)Observations 254726 254726σu 0.720 0.621ρ 0.136 0.105Groups 336 336What does that mean?Worker/petty bourgeoisie: roughlytwice as likely to vote for XR(unemployed!)Change over timeKai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (21/36)
  43. 43. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Class and the Extreme Right vote(1) (2)Worker 0.483∗∗∗ 0.441∗∗∗(0.0277) (0.0307)Petty bourgeoisie 0.438∗∗∗ 0.478∗∗∗(0.0347) (0.0363)Retired 0.0546 0.0563(0.0282) (0.0318)Unemployed 0.555∗∗∗ 0.552∗∗∗(0.0410) (0.0455)Time 0.00593∗∗∗(0.000666)Worker × Time 0.00176∗∗∗(0.000433)Farmer/Owner × Time -0.00207∗∗∗(0.000512)Retired × Time -0.0000549(0.000442)Unemployed × Time 0.000120(0.000665)Observations 254726 254726σu 0.720 0.621ρ 0.136 0.105Groups 336 336What does that mean?Worker/petty bourgeoisie: roughlytwice as likely to vote for XR(unemployed!)Change over timeDK 1980: worker 2%, pettybourgeoisie 3%DK 2002: worker 13%, pettybourgeoisie 8%Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (21/36)
  44. 44. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Class and the Extreme Right vote(1) (2)Worker 0.483∗∗∗ 0.441∗∗∗(0.0277) (0.0307)Petty bourgeoisie 0.438∗∗∗ 0.478∗∗∗(0.0347) (0.0363)Retired 0.0546 0.0563(0.0282) (0.0318)Unemployed 0.555∗∗∗ 0.552∗∗∗(0.0410) (0.0455)Time 0.00593∗∗∗(0.000666)Worker × Time 0.00176∗∗∗(0.000433)Farmer/Owner × Time -0.00207∗∗∗(0.000512)Retired × Time -0.0000549(0.000442)Unemployed × Time 0.000120(0.000665)Observations 254726 254726σu 0.720 0.621ρ 0.136 0.105Groups 336 336What does that mean?Worker/petty bourgeoisie: roughlytwice as likely to vote for XR(unemployed!)Change over timeDK 1980: worker 2%, pettybourgeoisie 3%DK 2002: worker 13%, pettybourgeoisie 8%But:Both groups shrinkingMajority of workers not voting forExtreme Right (but Austria)Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (21/36)
  45. 45. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?What strategies are available for the Centre Left?Bale et al. (2010):1. ‘Hold’2. ‘Defuse’3. ‘Adopt’ ((middle) elites)Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (22/36)
  46. 46. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Which macro/meso variables, and why?Asylum/ImmigrationUnemployment and replacement rateClassic Centre Left issueWelfare chauvinismClientele hypothesisKai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (23/36)
  47. 47. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Which macro/meso variables, and why?Asylum/ImmigrationUnemployment and replacement rateClassic Centre Left issueWelfare chauvinismClientele hypothesisIdeology of Centre Left and other partiesCentre Left: position (Hold vs Adopt)Centre Left: salience (Defuse)Most extreme other non Extreme Right party: positionAll other non Extreme Right parties: (weighted) averagesalienceAll other non Extreme Right parties: (weighted) varianceKai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (23/36)
  48. 48. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Does the Centre Left move?−10−50510−10−50510−10−50510−10−50510Jan75Jan80Jan85Jan90Jan95Jan00Jan05Jan75Jan80Jan85Jan90Jan95Jan00Jan05Jan75Jan80Jan85Jan90Jan95Jan00Jan05Jan75Jan80Jan85Jan90Jan95Jan00Jan05AT BE DE−O DE−WDK ES FI FRGR IT LU NLNO PT SEToughness(meanSD)timeKai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (24/36)
  49. 49. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Centre Left or Extreme Right: findings(1) (2) (3)Male 0.445∗∗∗(0.0515)Time 0.00982∗∗∗(0.000874)Toughness (max SD)Toughness (mean SD)Ideology Salience (SD)Toughness (other)Ideological Variance (other)Ideology Salience (other)New Asylum ApplicationsUnemploymentReplacement RateObservations 19858σu 0.733ρ 0.140Groups 336Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (25/36)
  50. 50. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?What does that mean?Very slow shift towards Extreme Right (Centre Left vote stillmuch more likely in most countries)Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (26/36)
  51. 51. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Centre Left or Extreme Right: findings(1) (2) (3)Male 0.445∗∗∗ 0.449∗∗∗(0.0515) (0.0517)Time 0.00982∗∗∗ 0.00692∗∗∗(0.000874) (0.00121)Toughness (max SD) 0.0327(0.0270)Toughness (mean SD)Ideology Salience (SD) -0.0437(0.0257)Toughness (other) -0.00246(0.0255)Ideological Variance (other) -0.0131∗∗(0.00437)Ideology Salience (other) 0.119∗∗∗(0.0291)New Asylum Applications 0.0386(0.0667)Unemployment 0.0999∗∗(0.0374)Replacement Rate 0.0515∗∗∗(0.0138)Observations 19858 19663σu 0.733 0.645ρ 0.140 0.112Groups 336 327Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (27/36)
  52. 52. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?What does that mean?Very slow shift towards Extreme Right (Centre Left vote stillmuch more likely in most countries)High unemployment rates and high replacement rates help theExtreme RightIdeological variance: no big dealKai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (28/36)
  53. 53. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Centre Left or Extreme Right: findings(1) (2) (3)Male 0.445∗∗∗ 0.449∗∗∗(0.0515) (0.0517)Time 0.00982∗∗∗ 0.00692∗∗∗(0.000874) (0.00121)Toughness (max SD) 0.0327(0.0270)Toughness (mean SD)Ideology Salience (SD) -0.0437(0.0257)Toughness (other) -0.00246(0.0255)Ideological Variance (other) -0.0131∗∗(0.00437)Ideology Salience (other) 0.119∗∗∗(0.0291)New Asylum Applications 0.0386(0.0667)Unemployment 0.0999∗∗(0.0374)Replacement Rate 0.0515∗∗∗(0.0138)Observations 19858 19663σu 0.733 0.645ρ 0.140 0.112Groups 336 327Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (29/36)
  54. 54. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?What does that mean?Very slow shift towards Extreme Right (Centre Left vote stillmuch more likely in most countries)High unemployment rates and high replacement rates help theExtreme RightIdeological variance: no big dealCentre Left toughness: no effect, so no ‘Adopt’Ideological salience (of others): marked effect, so ‘Defuse’conditional on other parties’ co-operationKai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (30/36)
  55. 55. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?Centre Left or Extreme Right: findings(1) (2) (3)Male 0.445∗∗∗ 0.449∗∗∗ 0.448∗∗∗(0.0515) (0.0517) (0.0517)Time 0.00982∗∗∗ 0.00692∗∗∗ 0.00651∗∗∗(0.000874) (0.00121) (0.00127)Toughness (max SD) 0.0327(0.0270)Toughness (mean SD) 0.0296(0.0309)Ideology Salience (SD) -0.0437 -0.0383(0.0257) (0.0247)Toughness (other) -0.00246 0.00360(0.0255) (0.0242)Ideological Variance (other) -0.0131∗∗ -0.0137∗∗(0.00437) (0.00429)Ideology Salience (other) 0.119∗∗∗ 0.116∗∗∗(0.0291) (0.0288)New Asylum Applications 0.0386 0.0326(0.0667) (0.0663)Unemployment 0.0999∗∗ 0.106∗∗(0.0374) (0.0388)Replacement Rate 0.0515∗∗∗ 0.0520∗∗∗(0.0138) (0.0138)Observations 19858 19663 19663σu 0.733 0.645 0.646ρ 0.140 0.112 0.113Groups 336 327 327Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (31/36)
  56. 56. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryThe Proletarisation of the Extreme RightLeft or Right?What does that mean?Very slow shift towards Extreme Right (Centre Left vote stillmuch more likely in most countries)High unemployment rates and high replacement rates help theExtreme RightIdeological variance: no big dealCentre Left toughness: no effect, so no ‘Adopt’Ideological salience (of others): marked effect, so ‘Defuse’conditional on other parties’ co-operationOperationalisation of toughness makes no differenceKai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (32/36)
  57. 57. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummarySummaryQ: Is there a ‘proletarisation’?Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (33/36)
  58. 58. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummarySummaryQ: Is there a ‘proletarisation’? A: ‘Petty bourgeoisie’ lost itsimportance for Extreme Right, ‘proletarisation’ a reality (butlimits of growth)Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (33/36)
  59. 59. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummarySummaryQ: Is there a ‘proletarisation’? A: ‘Petty bourgeoisie’ lost itsimportance for Extreme Right, ‘proletarisation’ a reality (butlimits of growth)Q: Does context matter?Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (33/36)
  60. 60. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummarySummaryQ: Is there a ‘proletarisation’? A: ‘Petty bourgeoisie’ lost itsimportance for Extreme Right, ‘proletarisation’ a reality (butlimits of growth)Q: Does context matter? A: A great deal, particularly whatother parties sayKai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (33/36)
  61. 61. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummarySummaryQ: Is there a ‘proletarisation’? A: ‘Petty bourgeoisie’ lost itsimportance for Extreme Right, ‘proletarisation’ a reality (butlimits of growth)Q: Does context matter? A: A great deal, particularly whatother parties sayQ: What can the Centre Left do?Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (33/36)
  62. 62. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummarySummaryQ: Is there a ‘proletarisation’? A: ‘Petty bourgeoisie’ lost itsimportance for Extreme Right, ‘proletarisation’ a reality (butlimits of growth)Q: Does context matter? A: A great deal, particularly whatother parties sayQ: What can the Centre Left do? A: Not too much, probablyKai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (33/36)
  63. 63. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryConclusionCentre Left sandwiched between New Left and New Right‘Defuse’ might work for Centre LeftIf others co-operateWhich might not be in their short-term interestKai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (34/36)
  64. 64. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryConclusionCentre Left sandwiched between New Left and New Right‘Defuse’ might work for Centre LeftIf others co-operateWhich might not be in their short-term interestThank you!Full paper here:http://www.kai-arzheimer.com/xr-workersKai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (34/36)
  65. 65. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryDescriptive Statistics Imin p25 mean p75 maxXR vote 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 1.00Worker 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.00 1.00Farmer/Owner 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.00 1.00Retired 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.00 1.00Unemployed 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 1.00Time -131.00 -36.00 10.22 56.00 130.00AT 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 1.00BE 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 1.00DE-E 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 1.00DE-W 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.00 1.00DK 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.00 1.00ES 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 1.00FI 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 1.00FR 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.00 1.00GR 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 1.00IT 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.00 1.00LU 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 1.00NL 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.00 1.00NO 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 1.00PT 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 1.00SE 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 1.00N 254726Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (35/36)
  66. 66. IntroductionTheoryData, Models, MethodsFindingsSummaryDescriptive Statistics IImin p25 mean p75 maxXR vote 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.00 1.00Male 0.00 0.00 0.60 1.00 1.00Time -131.00 -47.00 1.99 55.00 130.00Toughness (max SD) -11.71 -2.01 -0.12 1.51 13.68Toughness (mean SD) -11.71 -2.37 -1.02 1.12 7.45Ideology Salience (SD) 0.00 3.45 6.83 9.19 16.08Toughness (other) -4.54 0.59 4.84 7.92 27.54Ideological Variance (other) 0.00 1.87 17.18 16.50 244.60Ideology Salience (other) 0.50 5.08 8.95 12.41 31.25New Asylum Applications -0.98 -0.61 0.16 0.58 4.46Unemployment -4.91 -1.31 0.35 1.69 12.29Replacement Rate -31.62 -4.19 4.07 18.48 32.96AT 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 1.00BE 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 1.00DE-E 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 1.00DE-W 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.00 1.00DK 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 1.00ES 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 1.00FI 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 1.00FR 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.00 1.00GR 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 1.00IT 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 1.00LU 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00NL 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.00 1.00NO 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 1.00PT 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 1.00SE 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 1.00N 19663Kai Arzheimer Working Class Parties 2.0? (36/36)

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