Insights from Discussions Building on an Initial Perspective by an initial perspective on the future of food by Prof. Wayne Bryden, Foundation Chair in Animal Science at the University of Queensland. This includes insights from events already completed adding to the starting point for the global future agenda discussions taking place through 2015 as part of the the futureagenda2.0 programme. www.futureagenda.org

1. The
Future
of
Food
Insights
from
Discussions
Building
on
an
Ini4al
Perspec4ve
by:
Professor
Wayne
Bryden
|
University
of
Queensland

2. Context
The
ini4al
perspec4ve
on
the
Future
of
Food
kicked
off
the
Future
Agenda
2.0
global
discussions
taking
place
through
2015.
This
summary
builds
on
the
ini4al
view
and
is
updated
as
we
progress.
Ini4al
Perspec4ves
Q4
2014
Global
Discussions
Q1/2
2015
Insight
Synthesis
Q3
2015
Sharing
Output
Q4
2015

3. Increasing
Compe77on
for
Grains
Changes
in
popula4on
and
cuisine
have
led
to
a
tremendous
rise
in
the
demand
for
animal-­‐source
protein.
The
compe44on
between
livestock
and
humans
for
grains
and
other
high
quality
plant
foods
is
a
major
challenge.

4. More
Efficient
Produc7on
Food
will
need
to
be
produced
more
efficiently.
Increased
produc4vity
must
come
from
a
reduced
land
area
and
resource
base.
We
will
need
to
be
less
dependent
on
resources
that
are
becoming
scarce
or
more
costly.

5. Second
Green
Revolu7on
Another
Green
Revolu4on
is
required
but
today’s
revolu4on
must
be
different
to
overcome
environmental,
financial
and
societal
constraints.
It
is
no
longer
possible
to
use
unlimited
water
and
chemical
inputs
to
increase
produc4on.

6. Investment
in
Innova7on
There
has
been
a
global
decline
in
agricultural
R&D
in
the
past
four
decades.
There
is
now
an
urgent
need
to
redouble
the
agricultural
research
effort.
The
new
food
producing
system
has
to
be
science-­‐based
with
low
resource
input.

7. Sustainable
Consump7on
Part
of
the
solu4on
is
the
development
of
consump4on
pa[erns
that
meet
requirements
in
a
safe,
nutri4ous
and
affordable
manner.
In
developed
countries
this
will
mean
learning
to
eat
sustainably
with
less
reliance
on
meat.

8. Maintaining
Global
Food
Security
Over
the
next
decade
maintaining
global
food
security
will
become
much
more
difficult
as
the
popula4on
increases.
We
must
double
food
produc4on
in
a
sustainable
manner.

9. Reinven7ng
Diets
Our
rela4onship
with
food
must
change.
We
will
need
to
reinvent
our
diets
to
meet
our
nutri4onal
requirements
for
op4mal
health
and
in
so
doing
consume
fewer
calories
and
less
meat:
We
must
be
prepared
to
pay
realis4c
prices.

10. Educated
Consumers
To
improve
both
health
and
waste
we
see
mul4ple
campaigns,
both
global
and
local
-­‐
at
school
and
in
the
home
–
that
help
consumers
be[er
understand
labelling,
the
benefits
of
home
cooking
and
balanced
diets.

11. Nutri7onally
Balanced
Foods
Increasing
demand
for
more
affordable,
nutri4ous
food
leads
to
be[er
understanding
of
the
links
between
food,
physiology
and
health
-­‐
and
a
revisi4ng
of
the
past
when
food
was
more
func4onal
and
less
aesthe4c.

12. Fair
Compensa7on
Fairer
prices
for
farmers,
food
producers
and
consumers
are
driven
by
the
elimina4on
of
subsidies,
the
introduc4on
of
sustainability
accoun4ng
into
the
corporate
P&L
and
increased
transparency
and
traceability
of
supply.

13. Food
Safety
Led
by
WHO
and
other
mul4na4onal
partnerships,
a
gradual
shi`
towards
more
harmonised
and
global
food
standards
and
interna4onal
regula4ons
has
to
first
overcome
food
poli4cs
and
significant
na4onal
self-­‐interests.

14. Processed
Foods
More,
but
healthier,
ready-­‐prepared
and
ready-­‐to-­‐eat
foods
are
adopted
in
key
regions
where
‘wet’
markets
currently
predominate:
In
some
countries
the
benefits
of
frozen
foods
over
fresh
are
championed
by
governments.

15. Higher
Yields
With
a
focus
on
soil
rejuvena4on,
be[er
educa4on
of
farmers
and
more
widespread
use
of
animal
feeds,
medium-­‐sized
Asian
farms
use
proven
technologies
to
more
than
triple
output
per
acre
and
per
litre
of
water.

16. Feeding
the
BoHom
of
the
Pyramid
Achieving
and
maintaining
lower
prices
and
more
efficient
large
scale
distribu4on
to
and
within
ci4es
is
a
social
priority.
Balancing
this
with
higher
safety
standards
and
food
service
costs
is
however
a
challenge
for
some.

17. Reducing
Food
Waste
Postharvest
losses
of
foods
in
developing
countries
can
amount
to
30-­‐50%
of
produc4on.
In
developed
countries
a
similar
propor4on
is
wasted:
Minimising
this
loss,
that
could
feed
3
billion
people,
is
driven
by
be[er
data
collec4on.

18. Investment
in
Innova7on
The
urgent
need
to
redouble
the
agricultural
research
effort
and
overcome
recent
declines
drives
us
towards
a
new
food
producing
system
is
science-­‐
based,
with
low
resource
input
and
a
wider
poreolio
of
consumed
plants.

19. Targeted
Health
Foods
More
customised
foods,
blur
the
line
between
pharmaceu4cals
and
food
as
neutragenomics
allow
individualised
diets
to
fit
gene4c
profiles

20. Gene7c
Cocktails
The
ability
to
match
ingredients
to
personal
health
traits
drives
the
expansion
of
bespoke
drinks
designed
to
deliver
func4onal
as
well
as
flavour
benefits
to
the
individual.

21. Almost
Zero
Waste
Escala4ng
waste
produc4on
and
new
ahtudes,
approaches,
regula4on
and
business
models
lead
many
to
aim
for
an
almost
zero
waste
society

22. Natural
Plus
The
growing
affluent
consumers
increasingly
look
for
natural
op4ons
in
many
areas
of
life
and
consump4on
-­‐
across
food,
cosme4cs,
household
goods
and
clothing.

23. Mobile
Snacking
With
over
35%
of
breakfasts
already
consumed
in
the
car,
the
US
con4nues
to
lead
the
way
in
mobile
foods,
with
near
constant
snacking
replacing
structured
meals.

24.
ThoughMul
Consump7on
The
essence
of
markets,
of
produc4on
and
of
buying
habits
are
all
influenced
by
a
growing
awareness
of
global
and
local
issues
which
help
individuals
and
organisa4ons
to
be[er
form
consump4on
decisions
accordingly.

25. Food
as
Currency
The
West’s
insa4able
demand
for
constant
variety
and
abundance
is
puhng
undue
pressure
on
the
food
industry
to
deliver
more
-­‐
thus
crea4ng
a
spiral
of
rising
demand.
As
this
increases
food
may
become
its
own
currency.

26. Food
for
Thought
Growing
awareness
of
the
‘whole
food
system’
and
open
discourse
on
the
role
of
food
in
society,
leads
to
a
return
to
tradi4onal
food
sharing
rituals
and
a
rediscovery
of
the
importance
of
food
to
social
cohesion
and
well-­‐being.

27. Peak
Obesity
Growing
consumer
demands
for
transparency
and
healthy
op4ons,
along
with
declining
fast-­‐food
and
so`-­‐drink
sales
in
some
markets,
indicate
the
turning
of
a
corner
on
certain
food-­‐related
health
issues
such
as
childhood
obesity.

28. Food
Resource
Op7misa7on
New
technologies
in
the
food
system,
from
data-­‐driven
seasonal
and
market
forecas4ng,
to
robo4cs
and
bio/gen-­‐tech,
lead
to
greater
resilience
to
shocks
(e.g.
drought),
lower
costs
and
bigger
and
be[er
quality
yields.

29. Empowering
Local
with
Global
Alongside
consolida4on
of
large
food
corpora4ons,
we
see
hyper-­‐local
diversi4es
in
food
produc4on
and
supply
chains
-­‐
driven
by
global
networks
that
enable
local-­‐to-­‐local
sharing
of
informa4on,
resources,
and
technologies.

30. Holis7c
Food
Planning
The
food
system
will
increasingly
be
understood
in
rela4on
to
wider
resource
management
(water,
energy
etc.),
bringing
together
mul4ple
stakeholders
with
mul4ple
goals,
especially
within
local
landscapes
/
catchments.

31. Food
Investment
Boom?
Greater
incen4ves
and
opportuni4es
for
both
public
and
private
investors
will
arise
from
technological
developments
and
innova4ons
in
food
produc4on,
and
the
emergence
of
'high-­‐risk,
high-­‐return'
projects
such
as
C4
rice.

32. Enabling
Food
Reuse
Faced
with
moun4ng
regula4on
to
prevent
food
reuse,
consumers,
restaurants
and
retailers
lobby
for
changes
in
prac4ce
and
support
peer-­‐to-­‐
peer
plaeorms
that
match
excess
supply
with
demand
and
ensure
delivery.

33. Importers
to
Exporters
Be[er
data
management,
farmer
educa4on
and
gene4cs
combine
to
enable
more
food
to
be
produced
from
the
same
land.
Previous
net
food-­‐impor4ng
na4ons
become
self-­‐sufficient
and
some
become
net
exporters.

34. Less
Pes7cides
Improved
bio-­‐fer4lisers,
be[er
bio-­‐control
and
a
changing
global
perspec4ve
on,
and
hence
regional
ahtudes
to,
GMO
all
combine
to
help
improve
yield
-­‐
while
reducing
environmental
impact
of
mass
food
produc4on.

35. Blue
Food
The
opportunity
from
aqua4c
foods
-­‐
both
fish
and
plants
–
is
developed.
Posi4ve
consumer
percep4ons
and
rising
efficiencies
outweigh
cost,
pollu4on
and
transport
challenges
to
deliver
higher
growth
than
land-­‐based
foods

36. Water
as
an
Issue
Greater
awareness
of
water
access,
scarcity
and
control,
alongside
visibility
on
the
true
value
of
water,
all
drive
wider
recogni4on
of
the
challenge.
But,
in
some
regions,
the
absence
of
a
major
crisis
delays
poli4cal
and
social
ac4on.

37. Urban
Farming
Driven
by
city
food-­‐security
targets
and
innova4ve
produc4on
systems,
urban
farming
plays
an
increasingly
significant
role
in
many
regions:
reclaiming
waste
ground
and
reducing
supply
chain
complexity.

38. Credit
Access
Timely
access
to
credit
enables
farmers
to
purchase
fer5liser
and
other
inputs
to
improve
yields
and
making
it
easier
to
obtain
loans
-­‐
resul5ng
in
a
reduced
need
to
rely
on
high-­‐cost
lenders

39. Leveraging
the
Cloud
More
cloud-­‐based
solu5ons
deliver
services
with
higher
levels
of
reliability
and
scalability.
Because
many
are
also
customisable,
they
can
be
tailored
to
fit
the
unique
needs
of
agribusinesses
and
so
improve
efficiency.

40. Streamlined
Processes
BeBer
access
to
informa5on
helps
farmers
to
raise
yields
and
income.
Improved
distribu5on
networks
increase
transporta5on
efficiency,
improve
stock
management,
reduce
cash-­‐handling
costs
and
also
lower
fraud
risk.

41. Peer-­‐to-­‐peer
Marketplaces
Timely
access
to
informa5on
and
beBer
transparency
on
market
prices
enable
farmers
to
par5cipate
in
peer-­‐to-­‐peer
marketplaces.
They
sell
their
produce,
machinery,
equipment
and
goods
directly
to
buyers
via
SMS.

42. Local
Foods
Increased
transparency
around
food
availability
and
security,
land
use
and
economic
literacy
accelerate
greater
consump7on
of
locally
grown
and
processed
foods

43. Non-­‐indigenous
Foods
Although
demand
for
exo7c
ingredients
rises,
there
will
be
increased
awareness
of
the
environmental
consequences
of
growing
non-­‐indigenous
crops.
More
informed
consumers
choose
indigenous
produce.

44. Low-­‐water
Crops
With
increased
water
stress
and
growing
demand
for
food,
more
drought
and/or
salt
resistant
crops
are
developed
and
grown.
This
is
supported
by
improved
water
management.

45. Farm
to
Market
Efficiency
With
some
countries
losing
over
40%
of
food
in
the
supply
chain,
food
storage
and
distribu7on
are
seen
as
areas
for
increased
efficiency.
Private
companies
take
greater
responsibility,
reducing
corrup7on:
Prices
are
more
stable.

46. Future
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