A presentation I held at the Special Anniversary Conference of 16 years of Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management in SAIGON. 17. December 2011.

1. FUTURE MANAGEMENT
CHRISTIAN BLUEMELHUBER
SPECIAL CELEBRATION CONFERENCE
SOLVAY in SAIGON
SAIGON, DEC 17th 2011

2. Management is about the
FUTURE
our Knowledge is about / from the
PAST
and our strategies are developed in the
PRESENT

3. OUT
OF YOUR
future
starts
earlier
past time
ZEIT
PRESENT
shrinks
HERMANN LÜBBE

4. TIME GOES
vailable knowledge
FASTER AND FASTER
a
do uble s every
7Y EARS
but in
2030 every
72 DAYS
BASED ON JACQUES ATTALI

5. a holy cow sustainable
of mgmt co mpetitive
A Wiggins&Rue i STUDY advantage
SA FOR MORE
COMPANIES/SBUs, <5 PERMILLE
40 INDUSTRIES EVER H AD SA SA FOR MORE THAN 50 YRS
THAN 20 YRS

6. a s hort history
following Pillkahn, p25
o f future studies
RENAISSANCE
TREND RESEARCH
SCENARIOS
scientific
foresight
LUCK
SCIENCE
FICTION
ANTIQUITY MIDDLE AGES 19TH CENT 1960-2000 TODAY TOMORROW

7. Peter Drucker said the manager is both
composer & conducter
It is very grand and glorious,
but I think it´s a myth
Management is largely about ...
... interruption
... influencing action
... being prepared!
HENRY
MINTZBERG
Wall Street Journal, Aug 17, 2009

8. YOUR COMPANY
BE AWARE!
YOUR COUNTRY
YOUR FAMILY DOESN´T HAVE A FUTURE...
IT HAS...
THREE
OF IT!

9. managing
thefuture
„
„ „
PROBABLE WILD CARDS
EXPERIMENTATION INVENT FUTURE
FUTURE
DESIRED
TRENDS SURPRISING FUTURE
PLANING FUTURE CREATIVITY
FORECAST SURPRISE &
OPPORTUNITY DREAM
RADAR RADAR
RADAR

10. CONSTRAINTS & PARADIMAS
KNOWLEDGE THAT QUALIFIES AS programing
CERTAIN of people
TRENDS pattern
CHANGES THAT ARE BASED ON recognition
future FACTS
elements
CAOS / WILD CARDS
NOT SUBJECT TO „speculation“
CALCULATION
PARADISE
HOPEFUL PERSPECTIVES ideal worlds

11. PROBABLE
FUTURE
future ONE
„ TRENDS
PLANING

12. what are
trends?
3 interpretations
three
one
two
Trends represent the TRENDS ARE
LONG-TERM COMPONENT SOCIO
of a CULTURAL
TIME SERIES INNOVATIONS
the new +
THE «QUANTITIVE» normalization
RIST
THE «POP» FUTUATION APPROACH
INTERPRET THE «ENTREPRENEURIAL»
APPROACH
FOLLOWING LIEBL & SCHWARZ, FUTURES 2010

13. m egatrends
PARADOX
LONG -
TERM
SLOW COMPLEX
UBIQITOUS
„
TIME

14. megatre nds
CoPENHaGEN M HORX
McKINSEY instiTUTE
great rebalancing ageing population globalization
(power shift)
globalization woman rule
productivity technological dev. ageing population
imperative
prosperity individualization
global grid
connectedness individualization urbanization
pricing the planet commercialization connectivity
(green) health & environm
new work:
the market state acceleration knowledge
(gvts vs globalization)
urbanization

15. trends
FROM
DEVIANT TO
normal
SKATEBOARDING
LINK AESTHETICS & TECHNIQUES
OF SURFING TO SKATEBAORING
INVENTION OF THE URETHANE WHEEL
HO WOOD
WORSE DROUGHTS IN SERVLLY„HALFPIPES“
S E AS
EMPTY SWIMMING POOL
national Competitions
MAGAZINE: THW QAUTERLY SKATEBOARDER
FOLLOWING LIEBL & SCHWARZ, FUTURES 2010 TONY ALVA. FIRST SKATEBOARDER POP STAR

16. shouldn´t we (also)
e trn
lm ahe
extremes?
fro
TREND?

17. ommu nicate
c
re en
g
greene r
e
coll aborat
cultural
resh aping
we do greenes t
what

18. fro m trend to strategy
TRIGGER/INSPIRATION FOR
COMPETENCES trends
RESOURCES ISSUES
INVESTIGATE MUTUAL RELATIONSHIPS
LIEBL & SCHWARZ

19. WILD CARDS
EXPERIMENTATION
future TWO
„
SURPRISING
FUTURE
SURPRISE &
OPPORTUNITY
RADAR

20. peppered moth
BIRCH TREE

21. to the
EXPmeCTg
so
E thin ED
EXPECTising)
UN (surpr (s
TO BE
MENTALLY READY
FOR IT
BOLT
FROM THE BLUE
NO PRIOR MODEL
NO HINT IT WAS COMING
WEIK & SUTCUFF, P 33

22. w ild cards...
IMPROBABLE
SERIOUS,
DESCTRUCTIVE
CATASTROPHIC
ANOMALOUS
NOT PREDICTABLE

23. NOBODY GETS
JUSTICE.
PEOPLE ONLY GET
GOOD OR BAD
LUCK ORSON WELLS

24. STRATEGY 1.0 STRATEGY 2.0 STRATEGY 3.0
generic CAN STRATEGY
BE PLANNED?
strategies STRATEGY AS
COST LEADER
DIFFERENTIATOR CreaTING
NICH PLAYER
Fit LUCK
AS SUCCESS
offensive AMONG ALL ACTIVITIES DRIVER
strategies BTW RESOURCES
CHANGE AND MARKETS PREPAREDNESS
STRUCTURES & SPERM
FLEXIBILITY
BEHAVIOUR

25. 1 2 3
experi
FLUKE LUCK ment
CANNOT BE «lucs k
PREDICTED AT ALL favoer
th
prepared
mind»
DISCOVER/PRODUCE
PROMOTE
ACT PROACTIVELY
EXPLOIT

26. AT ANY ONE TIME,
RUN SCORES OF
EXPERIMENTS...
...SEE WHAT WORKS AND WHAT
DOESN´T, BACK THE WINNERS, AND
UNSENITMENTALLY KILL OFF THE
LOSERS (ABOUT CAPITAL ONE), SLOAN MGMT REV 99.
ERIC BEINHOCKER

27. INVENT FUTURE
future THREE DESIRED
„
FUTURE
CREATIVITY
DREAM
RADAR

28. ideas the
about
uture
„
f MODELS OF THE FUTURE
DESIGNED; CENTERED ON FUTURE
TIME SERIES. CENTERED ON PAST FANTASY, IMAGINATION
(CAUSAL) LOGIC. CENTERED ON PAST
PATTERN RECOGNITION
CENTERED ON PAST & MODELS
HISTORICAL ANAL.
past PRESENT future

29. IT´S NOT WHERE YOU TAKE THINGS FROM
IT´S WHERE YOU TAKE THEM TO.
JEAN-LUC GODARD

30. POSITIONING CONCEPTING
IMPROVING
bETTEFRMAN RENT
DIFFEMANAGER n e W
CRA T PLAYER
transform fresh start
improve

31. CREATIVE
CREATIVE
DESTRUCTION
DESTRUCTION FAST FOOD SANS
HAMBURGER

32. YOUR future

33. THE „NEW“
INNOVATION
TRANSFORMATION
TAUTOLOGY THE IDEAL
THE STABLE

34. FROM POSSIBLE CHANGE MO
MARKET
today
culture ORIENTATION
t ru n
innovag ioles
mkt TO
ACCEPTAB LE
CREATE
FROM
NECESSARY
future
acceptance FM
FUTURE
MEMORY

35. T U E
R Y
CEPT FU M O R
CON
M E
PREPARE THE
FM MIND
HUNG
G
T
WVK
ICN
ASC
Ü BERR
E[CCQ
JX"OT
GE CFNT
X" G
FKCO
R

36. FUTURE
emory
m
FUTURE SEMANTIC
THINKING FUTURE
THINKING
network
model

37. prepmied
ar d
n
INVERSE «U»
new
new
network
model
«planted»
idea

38. thank you!
BLUEMELHUBER.DE