Conference presentation on the Electoral Sociology of the Extreme Right

1. Electoral Sociology: Who votes for the Extreme
Right – and when?
Kai Arzheimer
University of Mainz, Germany/University of Essex, UK

2. Theory
Data
Findings
Discussion
Overview
Theory
Data
Findings
Who?
Why?
When and where?
Discussion
Kai Arzheimer Extreme Right Voting: Who, Why, When? (1/15)

3. Theory
Data
Findings
Discussion
What is the “Extreme Right”?
Terminology: endless controversy
Shopping lists of spatial, ideological and other criteria
Radical/Far/Populist/New/Xenophobic Right . . .
“We know who they are . . . ” (Mudde 1995)
Features
Less than well integrated
(Very) right on most issues, immigration as core issue
The Usual Suspects: Front National, Vlaams Blok/Belang,
Republicans . . .
Plus Borderline Cases: AN, SVP . . .
Immigration from outside Western Europe as main (or only)
issue
Kai Arzheimer Extreme Right Voting: Who, Why, When? (2/15)

4. Theory
Data
Findings
Discussion
Theoretical accounts of Extreme Right Voting?
1. Personality Traits and Value
Orientations
2. Social Disintegration
3. Group Conflicts (scapegoating
rational choice) → relative
deprivation
Kai Arzheimer Extreme Right Voting: Who, Why, When? (3/15)

5. Theory
Data
Findings
Discussion
Theoretical accounts of Extreme Right Voting?
1. Personality Traits and Value
Orientations
2. Social Disintegration
3. Group Conflicts (scapegoating
rational choice) → relative
deprivation
Problems
“Overlap”
Cross-national and
cross-temporal
variation
Kai Arzheimer Extreme Right Voting: Who, Why, When? (3/15)

6. Theory
Data
Findings
Discussion
Theoretical accounts of Extreme Right Voting?
1. Personality Traits and Value
Orientations
2. Social Disintegration
3. Group Conflicts (scapegoating
rational choice) → relative
deprivation
4. Contextual Explanations
Problems
“Overlap”
Cross-national and
cross-temporal
variation
Kai Arzheimer Extreme Right Voting: Who, Why, When? (3/15)

7. Theory
Data
Findings
Discussion
Theoretical accounts of Extreme Right Voting?
1. Personality Traits and Value
Orientations
2. Social Disintegration
3. Group Conflicts (scapegoating
rational choice) → relative
deprivation
4. Contextual Explanations
Problems
“Overlap”
Cross-national and
cross-temporal
variation
Contextual Explanations?
Party Features
Political Opportunities, public opinion
Other Contextual Factors
Kai Arzheimer Extreme Right Voting: Who, Why, When? (3/15)

8. Theory
Data
Findings
Discussion
Theoretical accounts of Extreme Right Voting?
1. Personality Traits and Value
Orientations
2. Social Disintegration
3. Group Conflicts (scapegoating
rational choice) → relative
deprivation
4. Contextual Explanations
Problems
“Overlap”
Cross-national and
cross-temporal
variation
Contextual Explanations?
Party Features
Political Opportunities, public opinion
Other Contextual Factors
latent support manifest support
Kai Arzheimer Extreme Right Voting: Who, Why, When? (3/15)

9. Theory
Data
Findings
Discussion
Which comparative data are available?
1. Cross-sections of micro-data
European Election Studies (2009: not yet)
European Social Survey (2002/2003)
Sweet but short, 10,000-15,000 respondents per wave
Kai Arzheimer Extreme Right Voting: Who, Why, When? (4/15)

10. Theory
Data
Findings
Discussion
Which comparative data are available?
1. Cross-sections of micro-data
European Election Studies (2009: not yet)
European Social Survey (2002/2003)
Sweet but short, 10,000-15,000 respondents per wave
2. Longitudinal micro-data Data
Eurobarometer
1980s-2000s
Contextual analyses across time and countries
≈ 250,000 respondents
Kai Arzheimer Extreme Right Voting: Who, Why, When? (4/15)

11. Theory
Data
Findings
Discussion
Which comparative data are available?
1. Cross-sections of micro-data
European Election Studies (2009: not yet)
European Social Survey (2002/2003)
Sweet but short, 10,000-15,000 respondents per wave
2. Longitudinal micro-data Data
Eurobarometer
1980s-2000s
Contextual analyses across time and countries
≈ 250,000 respondents
3. Contextual information: OECD, UNHCR, party manifestos,
election statistics . . .
Kai Arzheimer Extreme Right Voting: Who, Why, When? (4/15)

12. Theory
Data
Findings
Discussion
Who?
Why?
When and where?
Sociodemographics: gender
Men roughly 40% more likely to vote for the ER (not in Italy
in recent elections)
Even if we control for other factors (class, education,
attitudes)
More likely to admit? But: German “Representative Electoral
Statistics”
Kai Arzheimer Extreme Right Voting: Who, Why, When? (5/15)

13. Theory
Data
Findings
Discussion
Who?
Why?
When and where?
Sociodemographics: education
Citizens with University education least likely to vote for ER
Liberal values?
(Economic) interests?
Social desirability?
Much, much more support in lower (but not necessarily
lowest) educational strata
Fear of competition worse than actual competition? –
evidence is weak
Kai Arzheimer Extreme Right Voting: Who, Why, When? (6/15)

14. Theory
Data
Findings
Discussion
Who?
Why?
When and where?
Sociodemographics: class and age
Members of the working/lower middle class much more likely
to support the Extreme Right
Young (30-45, < 30) voters more likely to support the
Extreme Right
Disproportional support from the unemployed
Not affiliated with established parties
Kai Arzheimer Extreme Right Voting: Who, Why, When? (7/15)

15. Theory
Data
Findings
Discussion
Who?
Why?
When and where?
Sociodemographics: summary
Non-traditional working class parties
“Typical” voter: white, male, youngish, low (but not lowest)
level of qualification
Kai Arzheimer Extreme Right Voting: Who, Why, When? (8/15)

16. Theory
Data
Findings
Discussion
Who?
Why?
When and where?
Ideology and values
Materialism vs. Postmaterialism
Dissatisfaction with European Integration
Dissatisfaction with the way democracy works in one’s own
country
Kai Arzheimer Extreme Right Voting: Who, Why, When? (9/15)

17. Theory
Data
Findings
Discussion
Who?
Why?
When and where?
Ideology and values
Materialism vs. Postmaterialism
Dissatisfaction with European Integration
Dissatisfaction with the way democracy works in one’s own
country
Left-Right-Self-Evaluation
Kai Arzheimer Extreme Right Voting: Who, Why, When? (9/15)

18. Theory
Data
Findings
Discussion
Who?
Why?
When and where?
Immigration and xenophobia
Cross-sections: 2002/2003 + 1990s
High levels of xenophobia and perceived competition
Focus on Non-Western European immigrants
Non-religious concern about Islam
Kai Arzheimer Extreme Right Voting: Who, Why, When? (10/15)

19. Theory
Data
Findings
Discussion
Who?
Why?
When and where?
Which contextual factors?
Why variation within/between countries?
Theory → factors
Kai Arzheimer Extreme Right Voting: Who, Why, When? (11/15)

20. Theory
Data
Findings
Discussion
Who?
Why?
When and where?
Which contextual factors?
Why variation within/between countries?
Theory → factors
Immigration (asylum seekers)
Unemployment rates and benefits
Salience (and variation) of Extreme Right issues in other
parties’ manifestos
(Media)
Kai Arzheimer Extreme Right Voting: Who, Why, When? (11/15)

21. Theory
Data
Findings
Discussion
Who?
Why?
When and where?
Findings
Immigration → Extreme Right support ceteris paribus)
Higher levels of benefits → Extreme Right support (if
immigration is low) – welfare chauvinism?
Unemployment rate → Extreme Right support (if immigration
or benefits levels are very low)
At high levels of immigration, benefits curb effect of
unemployment
Kai Arzheimer Extreme Right Voting: Who, Why, When? (12/15)

22. Theory
Data
Findings
Discussion
Who?
Why?
When and where?
Findings
Immigration → Extreme Right support ceteris paribus)
Higher levels of benefits → Extreme Right support (if
immigration is low) – welfare chauvinism?
Unemployment rate → Extreme Right support (if immigration
or benefits levels are very low)
At high levels of immigration, benefits curb effect of
unemployment
Salience (regardless of direction) has clear effect on Extreme
Right support
Kai Arzheimer Extreme Right Voting: Who, Why, When? (12/15)

23. Theory
Data
Findings
Discussion
Who?
Why?
When and where?
Findings
Immigration → Extreme Right support ceteris paribus)
Higher levels of benefits → Extreme Right support (if
immigration is low) – welfare chauvinism?
Unemployment rate → Extreme Right support (if immigration
or benefits levels are very low)
At high levels of immigration, benefits curb effect of
unemployment
Salience (regardless of direction) has clear effect on Extreme
Right support
Contextual factors can “tip the balance” in ≈ 1
3 of all cases
Kai Arzheimer Extreme Right Voting: Who, Why, When? (12/15)

24. Theory
Data
Findings
Discussion
What have we learned so far?
Clear socio-demographic profile: young, male, working/lower
middle class
Clear attitudinal profile:
Not necessarily fully paid-up extremists
But dissatisfied with politics and suspicious of immigrants and
elites
Little support for disintegration thesis
Personality traits?
In line with theories of values, preferences, group conflict
Contextual factors often make a difference
Kai Arzheimer Extreme Right Voting: Who, Why, When? (13/15)

25. Theory
Data
Findings
Discussion
But . . .
Very strong country effects remain after controlling for context
Limits on contextual control variables
More/better information on parties
Comparative media studies
Kai Arzheimer Extreme Right Voting: Who, Why, When? (14/15)

26. Theory
Data
Findings
Discussion
Thank you!
Kai Arzheimer Extreme Right Voting: Who, Why, When? (15/15)