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United Nations BiH

     Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and
Herzegovina - Joint Commission on Human Rights,
   Child Rights, Youth, Immigration, Refugees,
                 Asylum and Ethics

  International Day for Eradication of Poverty

              Prepared by UN RC Office
                  17 October, 2011
                      Sarajevo
Summary



• BiH BRIEF SOCIO-ECONOMIC OVERVIEW OVERVIEW

• UN Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF)2010 – 2014

• 2011 UN ACTIVITIES ON POVERTY ERADICATION
Poverty in BiH
• UN and WB support key statistical research in capturing and
  understanding poverty issues in BiH – MICS, HBS, LFS
      Population in BiH below national poverty line (%)
            Year             Total            Urban             Rural
        2001                  19.5             13.8              19.9
        2004                  17.7             11.3              22.0
        2007                  14.0              8.2              17.8
• Additional 20% at risk of poverty
• Effect of crisis**: fall in household incomes by 4% would lead
  to an increase of the poverty rate by two percentage points
*Multi Indicative Cluster Survey (MICS), Household Budget Survey (HBS), Labour Force
Survey (LFS) – all three surveys due in 2011/ new data will be available early 2012
** WB estimate
Most vulnerable to poverty
               and social exclusion
• Children: in particular from vulnerable households, living in rural areas,
  without parental care, with disabilities, Roma children and displaced
  children
• Youth: unemployed youth in 2009 48.7% - four times higher than EU
• Persons with disabilities: 10-15% of population. Almost 2/3 of adults
  with disabilities lives close to or below the poverty line and are subject to
  a range of inequalities.
• Roma: 50% of Roma children enrolled in primary and only 2% in
  secondary education. Only 3% of Roma have permanent employment.
  27% of Roma live in households with per capita consumption below the
  equivalent of the PPP 2.15 USD
• Elderly: Every third elderly person in BiH is poor. The pension system in
  BiH covers 81% of persons older than 64 years. Average pension in FBiH
  in 2010 was 343 BAM and in the RS 320 BAM.
• Refugees and displaced: in BiH there are still 113,191 displaced persons,
  8,600 of which still live in 160 collective centers
Economic trends…
• External debt doubled in 10 years




• GDP growth stalled due to crisis
Economic trends (cont’)…
• Low foreign direct investments…




• … decreasing development assistance
BiH fiscal deficits
High unemployment…
• Employment continues to be extremely high…




• … among the highest rates in the world (13th out of 198 countries)




• Estimate for 2011 (ILO methodology) 23% (would        still rank on 28th
   place between Dominica and Equatorial Guinea)
Ineffective and costly social assistance




* Note of caution: in BiH transfers to households spending is hard to fully reconcile for lack of reliable data. However the general order of magnitude on
spending is indicated in the chart above
Education issues in BiH
• In 2009, only 14.8% of children are enrolled in preprimary
  education (90.1 % of four-year-olds in the EU-27 in 2008)
• 20,489 children of school age in 2009 were out of primary
  education
• Every fifth child in BiH does not attend secondary school
• Enrollment in tertiary education in 2009 was 37% (vs. 71% in
  Poland or 88% in Slovenia)
• Only 11% of labor force in BiH has tertiary education (2007).
  In EU, this average is 23.8%
2011 Economic Outlook


• 2011: recovery gathering pace, however
   • Growth projections from 2.2 - 3.0 percent
   • Economy remains fragile


• Return to robust growth requires:
   • Healthy financial sector (credit growth)
   • Sound public finances (fiscal consolidation)
   • Improved business and investment environment
      • competitiveness of the economy
      • Reduced corruption
      • Rule of Law
United Nations and Word Bank
                    development assistance
• United Nations Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF) 2010-2014
  adopted by Entity Governments and Council of Ministers in March, 2009.
  Started implementation January 1, 2010
    – Priority sectors: local/rural development, social inclusion, environment/climate
      change and justice/human security;
    – Support provided by 9 resident agencies (ILO, UNDP, UNESCO, UNFPA, UNHCR,
      UNICEF, UN Women, UNV, WHO), 6 non-resident agencies (FAO, IFAD, UNEP, UNECE,
      UN-Habitat, UNIDO), WB, IOM and IOM;

• World Bank Country Partnership Strategy 2012-2015
    – Priority sectors: Competitiveness, Inclusiveness and Environmental Sustainability
    – 100 MUSD IDA credits, 150 MUSD IBRD loans, and possible additional grant financing

• Implemented in partnership with all levels of government in BiH;
• Aligned with the EU integration process and state/entities priorities.
Total UNDAF allocation envisioned: USD 178,000,000 (2010-2014)
Total WB allocation envisioned:    USD 250,000,000 (2012-2015)
2010 UN Sectors & Financial Overview
                                                                 Indicative Total
                                                                                     Indicative Budget
                                                                 Planned Budget
2010                Donor                                                               Delivery per
                                                                 per Outcome for
                                                                                     Outcome in 2010
                                                                      2010
                    UN, EU, Swiss, Germany,
Governance /
                    Netherlands, Lichtenstein, Italy,               8,481,073         8,225,484    20%
Local Develop.
                    Sweden, Norway, BIH
                 UN, Netherlands, Spain, Norway,
Social Inclusion Swiss, Lichtenstein, Turkey,                      20,484,151       19,371,601     47%
                 Sweden, USA, Slovenia, UK, EU, BIH
Environment / UN, MP*, Spain, Netherlands,
                                                                    5,840,752       5,399,475      13%
Climate Change GEF**, Norway, France, EU, BIH
Justice/Human UN, GFATM***, EU, Spain,
                                                                    8,978,239         8,360,121    20%
Security      Belgium, Italy, Sweden
TOTAL USD:                                                         43,784,215       41,356,681    100%
*Multilateral Fund for Implementation of the Montreal Protocol
**Global Environmental Fund
***Global Fund to Fight Aids, Tuberculosis and Malaria
2011 UN Sectors & Financial Overview
                                                                     Indicative Total
2011                       Donor                                   Planned Budget per        %
                                                                    Outcome for 2011

                           UN, EU, Swiss, Lichenstein, Sweden,
Governance/
                           Netherlands, Norway, Austrian, BIH,   9,397,106                 17%
Local Development
                           UN

                           UN, Netherlands, Switzerland, EU,
Social Inclusion                                                 17,481,446                32%
                           Spain, Turkey, BIH

                           UN, Spain, GEF, Austria, Finland,
Environment Protection /
                           Sweden, Slovenia, MP, EU, France,     7,482,181                 15%
Climate Change
                           BiH

                           UN, GFATM, EU, Spain, Denmark,
Justice / Human Security   Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, UK,      20,923,809                36%
                           USAID, NATO PfP

TOTAL USD                                                                     55,284,542
 •     Approx. 70% of amount goes directly to excluded groups
2011 UN Activities on Poverty Eradication

Sector:   GOVERNANCE & LOCAL DEVELOPMENT

                                     Annual Outcomes


• Facilitate rural economic, agricultural and infrastructural development and strengthen
 municipal governance and absorption capacities in line with the EU accession process.

• Support governments’ efforts in adopting socially inclusive standards in the social
 dialogue, policy development and policy implementation process.

• Strengthen governments’ capacities in adopting human rights-based measures and
  mechanisms for addressing citizens needs (focus on IDPs, refugees, migrants, women,
  children, Roma, etc.)


            SECTOR TOTAL USD                   9,397,106
2011 UN Activities on Poverty Eradication

Sector: SOCIAL INCLUSION
                                     Annual Outcomes
• Assist governments in implementation of the revised Strategy for Implementation of
 Annex VII.

• Improve basic health, education, social protection, and child protection services.

• Increase youth employability and first time work experience opportunities for
 unemployed youth.

• Support development and implementation of evidence-based policies and protection
systems targeting social inclusion of vulnerable groups (elderly, children, IDPs, returnees,
women, Roma) and implementation of UN Conventions (Rights of People with Disabilities,
Rights of the Children, etc).


            SECTOR TOTAL USD                    17,481,446

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UN Bosnia and Herzegovina - Poverty Eradication Agenda

  • 1. United Nations BiH Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina - Joint Commission on Human Rights, Child Rights, Youth, Immigration, Refugees, Asylum and Ethics International Day for Eradication of Poverty Prepared by UN RC Office 17 October, 2011 Sarajevo
  • 2. Summary • BiH BRIEF SOCIO-ECONOMIC OVERVIEW OVERVIEW • UN Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF)2010 – 2014 • 2011 UN ACTIVITIES ON POVERTY ERADICATION
  • 3. Poverty in BiH • UN and WB support key statistical research in capturing and understanding poverty issues in BiH – MICS, HBS, LFS Population in BiH below national poverty line (%) Year Total Urban Rural 2001 19.5 13.8 19.9 2004 17.7 11.3 22.0 2007 14.0 8.2 17.8 • Additional 20% at risk of poverty • Effect of crisis**: fall in household incomes by 4% would lead to an increase of the poverty rate by two percentage points *Multi Indicative Cluster Survey (MICS), Household Budget Survey (HBS), Labour Force Survey (LFS) – all three surveys due in 2011/ new data will be available early 2012 ** WB estimate
  • 4. Most vulnerable to poverty and social exclusion • Children: in particular from vulnerable households, living in rural areas, without parental care, with disabilities, Roma children and displaced children • Youth: unemployed youth in 2009 48.7% - four times higher than EU • Persons with disabilities: 10-15% of population. Almost 2/3 of adults with disabilities lives close to or below the poverty line and are subject to a range of inequalities. • Roma: 50% of Roma children enrolled in primary and only 2% in secondary education. Only 3% of Roma have permanent employment. 27% of Roma live in households with per capita consumption below the equivalent of the PPP 2.15 USD • Elderly: Every third elderly person in BiH is poor. The pension system in BiH covers 81% of persons older than 64 years. Average pension in FBiH in 2010 was 343 BAM and in the RS 320 BAM. • Refugees and displaced: in BiH there are still 113,191 displaced persons, 8,600 of which still live in 160 collective centers
  • 5. Economic trends… • External debt doubled in 10 years • GDP growth stalled due to crisis
  • 6. Economic trends (cont’)… • Low foreign direct investments… • … decreasing development assistance
  • 8. High unemployment… • Employment continues to be extremely high… • … among the highest rates in the world (13th out of 198 countries) • Estimate for 2011 (ILO methodology) 23% (would still rank on 28th place between Dominica and Equatorial Guinea)
  • 9. Ineffective and costly social assistance * Note of caution: in BiH transfers to households spending is hard to fully reconcile for lack of reliable data. However the general order of magnitude on spending is indicated in the chart above
  • 10. Education issues in BiH • In 2009, only 14.8% of children are enrolled in preprimary education (90.1 % of four-year-olds in the EU-27 in 2008) • 20,489 children of school age in 2009 were out of primary education • Every fifth child in BiH does not attend secondary school • Enrollment in tertiary education in 2009 was 37% (vs. 71% in Poland or 88% in Slovenia) • Only 11% of labor force in BiH has tertiary education (2007). In EU, this average is 23.8%
  • 11. 2011 Economic Outlook • 2011: recovery gathering pace, however • Growth projections from 2.2 - 3.0 percent • Economy remains fragile • Return to robust growth requires: • Healthy financial sector (credit growth) • Sound public finances (fiscal consolidation) • Improved business and investment environment • competitiveness of the economy • Reduced corruption • Rule of Law
  • 12. United Nations and Word Bank development assistance • United Nations Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF) 2010-2014 adopted by Entity Governments and Council of Ministers in March, 2009. Started implementation January 1, 2010 – Priority sectors: local/rural development, social inclusion, environment/climate change and justice/human security; – Support provided by 9 resident agencies (ILO, UNDP, UNESCO, UNFPA, UNHCR, UNICEF, UN Women, UNV, WHO), 6 non-resident agencies (FAO, IFAD, UNEP, UNECE, UN-Habitat, UNIDO), WB, IOM and IOM; • World Bank Country Partnership Strategy 2012-2015 – Priority sectors: Competitiveness, Inclusiveness and Environmental Sustainability – 100 MUSD IDA credits, 150 MUSD IBRD loans, and possible additional grant financing • Implemented in partnership with all levels of government in BiH; • Aligned with the EU integration process and state/entities priorities. Total UNDAF allocation envisioned: USD 178,000,000 (2010-2014) Total WB allocation envisioned: USD 250,000,000 (2012-2015)
  • 13. 2010 UN Sectors & Financial Overview Indicative Total Indicative Budget Planned Budget 2010 Donor Delivery per per Outcome for Outcome in 2010 2010 UN, EU, Swiss, Germany, Governance / Netherlands, Lichtenstein, Italy, 8,481,073 8,225,484 20% Local Develop. Sweden, Norway, BIH UN, Netherlands, Spain, Norway, Social Inclusion Swiss, Lichtenstein, Turkey, 20,484,151 19,371,601 47% Sweden, USA, Slovenia, UK, EU, BIH Environment / UN, MP*, Spain, Netherlands, 5,840,752 5,399,475 13% Climate Change GEF**, Norway, France, EU, BIH Justice/Human UN, GFATM***, EU, Spain, 8,978,239 8,360,121 20% Security Belgium, Italy, Sweden TOTAL USD: 43,784,215 41,356,681 100% *Multilateral Fund for Implementation of the Montreal Protocol **Global Environmental Fund ***Global Fund to Fight Aids, Tuberculosis and Malaria
  • 14. 2011 UN Sectors & Financial Overview Indicative Total 2011 Donor Planned Budget per % Outcome for 2011 UN, EU, Swiss, Lichenstein, Sweden, Governance/ Netherlands, Norway, Austrian, BIH, 9,397,106 17% Local Development UN UN, Netherlands, Switzerland, EU, Social Inclusion 17,481,446 32% Spain, Turkey, BIH UN, Spain, GEF, Austria, Finland, Environment Protection / Sweden, Slovenia, MP, EU, France, 7,482,181 15% Climate Change BiH UN, GFATM, EU, Spain, Denmark, Justice / Human Security Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, UK, 20,923,809 36% USAID, NATO PfP TOTAL USD 55,284,542 • Approx. 70% of amount goes directly to excluded groups
  • 15. 2011 UN Activities on Poverty Eradication Sector: GOVERNANCE & LOCAL DEVELOPMENT Annual Outcomes • Facilitate rural economic, agricultural and infrastructural development and strengthen municipal governance and absorption capacities in line with the EU accession process. • Support governments’ efforts in adopting socially inclusive standards in the social dialogue, policy development and policy implementation process. • Strengthen governments’ capacities in adopting human rights-based measures and mechanisms for addressing citizens needs (focus on IDPs, refugees, migrants, women, children, Roma, etc.) SECTOR TOTAL USD 9,397,106
  • 16. 2011 UN Activities on Poverty Eradication Sector: SOCIAL INCLUSION Annual Outcomes • Assist governments in implementation of the revised Strategy for Implementation of Annex VII. • Improve basic health, education, social protection, and child protection services. • Increase youth employability and first time work experience opportunities for unemployed youth. • Support development and implementation of evidence-based policies and protection systems targeting social inclusion of vulnerable groups (elderly, children, IDPs, returnees, women, Roma) and implementation of UN Conventions (Rights of People with Disabilities, Rights of the Children, etc). SECTOR TOTAL USD 17,481,446

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. Based on 2007 HBS, it is estimated that about 20% of the population, for example, have per capita expenditure levels between 204 BAM and 306 BAM. This population is susceptible to economic changes that could lead to a decrease of their income, even by rather small amounts, and move them below the poverty line. It is estimated that the global economic crisis will seriously influence BiH. GDP was expected to fall by 3.5 to 4% in 2009, but the actual decline and its length are still uncertain. Empiric simulations conducted by the World Bank indicate that the foreseen fall in GDP could lead to an increase in poverty, thus wiping out half of the progress achieved before crisis. A fall in household incomes by 4% would lead to an increase of the poverty rate by two percentage points.
  2. vulnerable households: three and more children where the youngest child is younger than five years; four or more adults; two or three elderly people; headed by women; headed by persons with no education or with only primary school completed; households with no employed members; those living in rural areas.