This presentation summarises a research project undertaken in Q2 of 2013 looking at how different organisations are planning for adaptation to climate change. Based on discussions with leaders from over 20 companies around the world and supported by additional analysis, it looks at a number of issues in and around adaptation. Key areas covered are: Foresight and Future Agenda The Context For Adaptation Adaptation Policy and Plans Business Risk Variations by Geography Impact of Cities Levels of Adaptation Activity Implications and Trade Offs This is designed as an initial view of where thinking is currently at, what are some of the key shifts taking place and what are some of the major challenges. It is not meant to be the answer but more to layout the challenge and identify some of the key questions and trade offs we need to consider both globally and locally as we learn to live with effects of global warming and a 4C warmer world. Further discussions on and around this topic will take place later this year as part of our ongoing refresh of emerging views in and around the impacts and implications of climate change. The Future Agenda programme is the world’s first global open foresight initiative. Supported in 2010 by Vodafone Group, this is a major cross-discipline project that united some of the best minds from around the globe to address the greatest challenges of the next decade. In doing so, it mapped out the major issues, identified and discussed potential solutions, suggested the best ways forward and provided a unique open platform for collective innovation at a higher level than has been previously been achieved. The first programme involved over 2500 experts in 50 workshops around the world and engaged on-line with another 20,000 people in 147 different countries. Many companies, governments and other organsiations around the world are using insights from the Future Agenda to identify major growth platforms for the future. A second programme looking at the world in 2025 is scheduled for 2015. Since the first programme, we have been undertaking a number of deep dives into specific areas of interest to companies. These have ranges from the emerging role of women in India, the increasing influence of cities and the future of work through to specific implications of emerging changes on sectors including banking, FMCG, transportation and healthcare. The Adaptation to Climate Change is the latest of these deep dives.

1. Adapta&on
to
Climate
Change:
An
Ini&al
View
1
August
2013
|
Tim
Jones
|
Dave
McCormick

2. Topics
covered
include:
§ Foresight
and
Future
Agenda
§ The
Context
For
Adapta@on
§ Adapta@on
Policy
and
Plans
§ Business
Risk
§ Varia@ons
by
Geography
§ Impact
of
Ci@es
§ Levels
of
Adapta@on
Ac@vity
§ Implica@ons
and
Trade
Offs
This
document
summarises
views
shared
by
several
companies
as
part
of
a
recent
project
with
BSR
to
explore
a@tudes
and
emerging
strategies
around
adapta&on
to
climate
change
Contents

3. As
change
accelerates
in
an
increasingly
connected
world,
more
companies
are
looking
further
ahead
to
beEer
understand
emerging
opportuni&es
and
challenges
Foresight
and
Future
Agenda

4. Organisa&ons
increasingly
want
to
iden&fy
and
understand
both
the
an&cipated
and
unexpected
changes
so
that
they
can
be
beEer
prepared
for
the
future
Foresight
and
Future
Agenda

5. The
Future
Agenda
is
the
world’s
largest
open
foresight
program
that
looks
at
the
big
issues
for
2020
so
that
organisa&ons
can
beEer
focus
and
s&mulate
innova&on
Foresight
and
Future
Agenda

6. The
Context
for
Adapta&on

7. As
we
experience
more
frequent
extreme
weather,
many
around
the
world
are
now
recognising
while
others
are
star&ng
to
respond
to
the
wider
impacts
of
climate
change
Extreme
Weather

8. Most
organisa&ons
have
primarily
been
focusing
efforts
on
changing
behaviours
and
strategies
in
order
to
mi&gate
the
effects
of
climate
change
and
change
direc&on
Mi&ga&on
of
Climate
Change

9. Much
of
the
ini&al
debate
and
ac&on
has
been
around
trying
to
keep
global
warming
under
20C
and
carbon
at
350
ppm
–
unfortunately
both
targets
that
now
look
unachievable
Mi&ga&on
of
Climate
Change

10. Many
see
that
at
the
current
rate
of
change,
we
may
well
hit
500ppm
of
CO2
concentra&on
by
2050
and
that,
on
average,
the
world
will
be
well
over
40C
warmer
The
Big
Challenge
Ahead

11. Although
mi&ga&on
is
a
primary
focus
for
many,
some
recognise
that
wai&ng
for
its
impact
is
not
enough
and
so
we
also
need
to
adapt
to
the
implica&ons
of
climate
change
Need
for
Adapta&on

12. Adapta&on
Policy
and
Plans

13. The
UNFCCC
supports
the
formula&on
and
implementa&on
of
na&onal
adapta&on
plans
and
programs
that
consider
approaches
to
address
damage
associated
with
climate
change
Adapta&on
Policy
and
Plans

14. Several
governments
around
the
world
are
seen
to
be
taking
a
lead
on
changing
the
regulatory
frameworks
around
adapta&on
and
resilience
to
climate
change
Adapta&on
Policy
and
Plans

15. Na&onal
adapta&on
plans
are
star&ng
to
drive
ac&on
in
specific
sectors
and
as
climate
is
seen
as
a
threat
to
na&onal
security
this
will
push
adapta&on
up
the
agenda
Adapta&on
Policy
and
Plans

16. Business
Risk

17. Adapta&on
to
climate
change
is
fast
emerging
on
to
the
risk
radars
of
a
number
of
leading
organisa&ons
and
governments
and
is
therefore
becoming
more
visible
to
society
Business
Risk

18. Several
organisa&ons
see
the
three
areas
of
climate
change
mi&ga&on,
resilience
and
adapta&on
through
their
own
view
of
business
risk
such
as
maintaining
water
supply
Business
Risk

19. For
example,
food
and
drink
companies
are
focusing
on
the
pressures
on
crop
varie&es
and
the
need
to
respond
to
such
issues
as
increased
drought
and
saltwater
tolerance
Business
Risk

20. Several
organisa&ons
are
also
recognising
wider
risks
around
such
issues
as
workforce
support,
security
of
supply
chains
and
poten&al
shiXs
in
associated
consumer
a@tudes
Business
Risk

21. For
some,
the
worry
of
focusing
on
the
immediate,
short-­‐term
visible
risk
may
result
in
ac&ons
that
have
a
longer
term
nega&ve
impact
with
unintended
consequences
Business
Risk

22. Physical
Environment
Changes
Opera@onal
Rules
and
Constraints
Social
Expecta@ons
and
ShiPs
As
a
result,
some
leading
organisa&ons
are
seeing
adapta&on
as
having
direct
linkages
to
their
ability
to
operate
globally
and
effec&vely
serve
customers,
stakeholders
and
society
Business
Risk
for
Adapta&on

23. Varia&ons
by
Geography

24. There
is
broad
recogni&on
that
adapta&on
measures
are
shaped
by
the
specific
context
and
so
adapta&on
efforts
must
be
focused
at
the
local
not
global
generic
level
Varia&ons
by
Geography

25. Globally
the
impact
of
climate
is
well
recognised
as
being
unevenly
distributed
with
some
countries
more
exposed
to
change
than
others
Varia&ons
by
Geography

26. India
is
one
loca&on
where
adapta&on
involves
trade-­‐offs
between
such
issues
and
clean
water
and
energy
supply
with
market-­‐orientated
regula&on
playing
a
key
role
Varia&ons
by
Geography

27. Insurance
companies
see
that
weather
related
catastrophes
have
tripled
since
1980:
In
2012
the
US
experienced
11
extreme
events
each
cos&ng
more
that
$1bn
Varia&ons
by
Geography

28. Impact
of
Ci&es

29. Adapta&on
is
at
the
forefront
of
thinking
and
development
for
all
ci&es
globally
with
organisa&ons
such
as
the
C40
and
ICLEI
increasingly
ac&ng
as
catalysts
for
this
Impact
of
Ci&es

30. Already
22
of
the
top
50
wealthiest
ci&es
are
prone
to
serious
flooding
which
will
also
impact
housing,
poverty,
cost
of
energy
and
social
breakdown
Impact
of
Ci&es

31. The
ten
most
‘at
risk
ci&es’
globally
already
have
combined
popula&ons
of
over
150m
and
are
projected
by
the
UN
to
have
grown
by
a
further
50%
adding
another
75m
by
2025
Impact
of
Ci&es

32. Some
can
envisage
a
situa&on
where
major
ci&es
may
start
to
have
to
self-­‐insure
and
rebuild
–
In
the
wake
of
hurricane
Sandy
New
York
is
just
one
of
the
first
to
be
considering
this
Impact
of
Ci&es

33. Levels
of
Adapta&on
Ac&vity

34. While
mi&ga&on
of
climate
change
is
very
much
the
focus
for
many,
for
those
NGOs
who
are
star&ng
to
look
towards
a
40C
warmer
world,
adapta&on
has
been
gaining
trac&on
Levels
of
Ac&vity

35. However,
some
organisa&ons
do
not
talk
about
adapta&on
as
it
implies
defeat
on
mi&ga&on,
is
increasingly
poli&cal
and
may
well
alienate
key
stakeholders
and
customers
Levels
of
Ac&vity

36. Even
though
they
may
not
be
using
the
term
‘adapta&on’,
others
are
star&ng
to
be
more
open
to
the
issues
raised
by
a
substan&al
shiX
in
the
world’s
climate
Levels
of
Ac&vity

37. Mi&ga&on
ac&on
is
significantly
more
mature
in
many
organiza&ons
and
for
the
majority
of
companies
it
is
s&ll
early
days
for
adapta&on
considera&ons
Levels
of
Ac&vity

38. We
see
a
matrix
of
different
types
of
responses
to
climate
change
adapta&on
that
looks
at
both
different
levels
of
adapta&on
and
well
as
levels
of
impact
Levels
of
Ac&vity
Adapt to
increased intensity
and frequency
of climate
events
Adapt to
impacts of
climate change
Respond
to climate
events
Adapt to
4 degrees
warmer
Adaptation:
The Context
Insurance
Policy
Na@onal
Security
Infrastructure
Business
Systems
Social
Systems
Level of Impact
LevelofAdaptation

39. Many
organisa&ons
see
adapta&on
as
responding
to
climate
change
related
events
as
and
when
they
happen
–
be
that
flooding,
drought,
migra&on
or
other
socio-­‐economic
shiXs
Levels
of
Ac&vity
Adapt to
increased intensity
and frequency
of climate
events
Adapt to
impacts of
climate change
Respond
to climate
events
Adapt to
4 degrees
warmer
Adaptation:
The Context
Insurance
Policy
Na@onal
Security
Infrastructure
Business
Systems
Social
Systems
Level of Impact
LevelofAdaptation

40. Some
companies,
especially
in
the
u&li&es
and
logis&cs
arenas,
are
adap&ng
to
increased
intensity
and
frequency
of
climate
events
and
broader
implica&ons
Levels
of
Ac&vity
Adapt to
increased intensity
and frequency
of climate
events
Adapt to
impacts of
climate change
Respond
to climate
events
Adapt to
4 degrees
warmer
Adaptation:
The Context
Insurance
Policy
Na@onal
Security
Infrastructure
Business
Systems
Social
Systems
Level of Impact
LevelofAdaptation

41. A
number
of
food
and
drink
companies
are
increasingly
focused
on
key
impacts
beyond
their
immediate
fence-­‐line
looking
across
the
inbound
supply
chain
and
wider
business
systems
Levels
of
Ac&vity
Adapt to
increased intensity
and frequency
of climate
events
Adapt to
impacts of
climate change
Respond
to climate
events
Adapt to
4 degrees
warmer
Adaptation:
The Context
Insurance
Policy
Na@onal
Security
Infrastructure
Business
Systems
Social
Systems
Level of Impact
LevelofAdaptation

42. Others
are
moving
ahead
to
focus
on
the
impacts
of
climate
change
across
the
board
and
extending
approaches
to
help
local
suppliers
and
their
communi&es
be
beEer
prepared
Levels
of
Ac&vity
Adapt to
increased intensity
and frequency
of climate
events
Adapt to
impacts of
climate change
Respond
to climate
events
Adapt to
4 degrees
warmer
Adaptation:
The Context
Insurance
Policy
Na@onal
Security
Infrastructure
Business
Systems
Social
Systems
Level of Impact
LevelofAdaptation

43. And
some
organisa&ons
have
been
suppor&ng
collabora&ve
projects
to
explore
how
they
could
best
enable
broader
societal
and
eco
systems
to
beEer
adapt
to
climate
change
Levels
of
Ac&vity
Adapt to
increased intensity
and frequency
of climate
events
Adapt to
impacts of
climate change
Respond
to climate
events
Adapt to
4 degrees
warmer
Adaptation:
The Context
Insurance
Policy
Na@onal
Security
Infrastructure
Business
Systems
Social
Systems
Level of Impact
LevelofAdaptation

44. Implica&ons
and
Trade
Offs

45. There
is
a
need
for
greater
human
adapta&on
to
climate
change
–
around
workforces
and
communi&es
as
well
as
preparing
future
genera&ons
and
changing
a@tudes
Implica&ons
and
Trade
Offs

46. It
is
clear
that
as
we
move
forward
adapta&on
will
play
an
increasingly
important
role
in
defining
and
shaping
both
governmental
and
business
a@tudes
and
risk
strategies
Implica&ons
and
Trade
Offs

47. Although
there
are
clear
gaps
around
issues
such
as
alignment
between
policy
and
business
ac&ons,
adapta&on
will
become
a
significant
issue
for
a
wide
range
of
organisa&ons
Implica&ons
and
Trade
Offs

48. Enabling
long
term
planning
for
adapta&on
is
difficult
as
short-­‐
termism
and
quick
win
opportuni&es
are
focusing
thinking
and
priority
ac&ons
in
many
organisa&ons
Implica&ons
and
Trade
Offs

49. While
some
seek
the
financial
jus&fica&on
for
inves&ng
in
adapta&on,
others
are
seeing
it
as
part
of
doing
good
business
where
the
benefit
is
shared
by
many
Implica&ons
and
Trade
Offs

50. The
reality
facing
many
is
that
we
need
to
act
now
and
this
requires
both
a
clearer
view
of
the
likely
impacts
of
adapta&on
as
well
as
beEer
understanding
the
specific
implica&ons
Implica&ons
and
Trade
Offs

51. For
major
climate
change
events
you
may
have
5
years
of
planning
but
only
45
minutes
to
act,
and
then
an
extra
5
minutes
of
&me
saved
is
worth
a
lot
Implica&ons
and
Trade
Offs

52. Physical
Environment
Changes
Opera@onal
Rules
and
Constraints
Social
Expecta@ons
and
ShiPs
Recognise
the
Pivotal
Gaps
and
Challenges
Understand
and
Quan@fy
the
Impact
Align
Objec@ves
for
Business,
Systems
and
Society
Define
the
Local
Implica@ons
and
Op@ons
Establish
Collabora@on
on
Core
Ac@vi@es
Those
organisa&ons
seeing
adapta&on
as
a
key
challenge
are
now
looking
to
form
partnerships
to
collec&vely
take
on
the
pivotal
challenges
locally
Summary

53. Future Agenda
84 Brook Street
London
W1K 5EH
+44 203 0088 141
futureagenda.org
tim.jones@futureagenda.org
The
world’s
leading
open
foresight
program