CBO's Economic Projections
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Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, CBO’s Assistant Director for Macroeconomic Analysis, at the Economic Outlook Forum hosted by the NYU Stern Center for Global Economy and Business.
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Updated Projections for the Federal Budget and the Economy
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, at the Macroeconomic Advisers’ 25th Annual Washington Policy Seminar.
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The Congressional Budget Office presented its Budget and Economic Outlook for 2015 to 2025. The CBO director Douglas Elmendorf discussed projections that showed growing budget deficits, a rising federal debt level, increasing spending primarily on healthcare programs, and steady economic growth over the next decade. Key inputs in the CBO's economic projections included slower potential labor force growth and steady potential productivity and inflation.
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The Congressional Budget Office released its Budget and Economic Outlook for 2017 to 2027. The report projects modest economic growth, rising interest rates, and continued budget deficits over the next decade. Spending on major health care programs like Medicare and Medicaid are expected to be the largest contributors to increased government outlays. The amount of federal debt held by the public is projected to rise steadily from 77% of GDP in 2017 to 92% in 2027.
CBO’s Budget and Economic Outlook: 2017 to 2027
In fiscal year 2016, for the first time since 2009, the federal budget deficit increased in relation to the nation’s economic output. The Congressional Budget Office projects that over the next decade, if current laws remained generally unchanged, the deficit would decline in 2018 and then resume its upward trajectory—the result of strong growth in spending for retirement and health care programs targeted to older people and rising interest payments on the government’s debt, accompanied by only modest growth in revenue collections. Those accumulating deficits would drive debt held by the public from its already high level up to its highest percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) since shortly after World War II.
CBO’s estimate of the deficit for 2017 has increased since January 2017, when the agency issued its previous estimates, because revenues are expected to be lower and mandatory spending is expected to be higher than earlier anticipated. Additionally, the current projection for the cumulative deficit for the 2018–2027 period is about $700 billion more than reported in January.
CBO’s economic forecast—which underlies its budget projections—indicates that under current law, economic growth over the next two years would remain close to the modest rate observed since the end of the recession in 2009. Nevertheless, economic growth would continue to outpace growth in potential (maximum sustainable) GDP and thus continue to reduce the amount of underused resources, or slack, in the economy. The result would be increases in hiring, employment, and wages, along with upward pressure on inflation and interest rates. In the later part of the 10-year projection period, output growth would be constrained by a relatively slow increase in the nation’s supply of labor.
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The Congressional Budget Office presented its Budget and Economic Outlook for 2015 to 2025. The CBO director Douglas Elmendorf discussed projections that showed growing budget deficits, a rising federal debt level, increasing spending primarily on healthcare programs, and steady economic growth over the next decade. Key inputs in the CBO's economic projections included slower potential labor force growth and steady potential productivity and inflation.
Charts from CBO's testimony on Confronting the Nation's Fiscal Policy Challenges
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The Congressional Budget Office document discusses confronting the nation's fiscal policy challenges. It summarizes key fiscal indicators like the deficit, debt, and spending on entitlement programs. It outlines the spending reductions and deficit reduction of $1.1 trillion that would occur over the next decade under the Budget Control Act. The document also discusses the trade-offs around the timing of deficit reduction and the near-term economic effects of different deficit reduction policies. It concludes that attaining a sustainable budget will require raising revenues, changing entitlement benefits, or reducing other government spending relative to the size of the economy.Highlights From The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2017 to 2027
The Congressional Budget Office released its Budget and Economic Outlook for 2017 to 2027. The report projects modest economic growth, rising interest rates, and continued budget deficits over the next decade. Spending on major health care programs like Medicare and Medicaid are expected to be the largest contributors to increased government outlays. The amount of federal debt held by the public is projected to rise steadily from 77% of GDP in 2017 to 92% in 2027.
CBO’s Budget and Economic Outlook: 2017 to 2027
In fiscal year 2016, for the first time since 2009, the federal budget deficit increased in relation to the nation’s economic output. The Congressional Budget Office projects that over the next decade, if current laws remained generally unchanged, the deficit would decline in 2018 and then resume its upward trajectory—the result of strong growth in spending for retirement and health care programs targeted to older people and rising interest payments on the government’s debt, accompanied by only modest growth in revenue collections. Those accumulating deficits would drive debt held by the public from its already high level up to its highest percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) since shortly after World War II.
CBO’s estimate of the deficit for 2017 has increased since January 2017, when the agency issued its previous estimates, because revenues are expected to be lower and mandatory spending is expected to be higher than earlier anticipated. Additionally, the current projection for the cumulative deficit for the 2018–2027 period is about $700 billion more than reported in January.
CBO’s economic forecast—which underlies its budget projections—indicates that under current law, economic growth over the next two years would remain close to the modest rate observed since the end of the recession in 2009. Nevertheless, economic growth would continue to outpace growth in potential (maximum sustainable) GDP and thus continue to reduce the amount of underused resources, or slack, in the economy. The result would be increases in hiring, employment, and wages, along with upward pressure on inflation and interest rates. In the later part of the 10-year projection period, output growth would be constrained by a relatively slow increase in the nation’s supply of labor.
Presentation by Sam Papenfuss, Deputy Assistant Director for CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, at the National Association of State Auditors, Comptrollers and Treasurers annual conference.
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Presentation by Jeff Werling, Associate Director, Macroeconomic Analysis at CBO, to the International Economic Development Council (IEDC).
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Director Douglas W. Elmendorf's Press Briefing Slides on CBO's report An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024
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Presentation by Jeff Werling, Assistant Director, Macroeconomic Analysis Division, for the REALTOR® University Speaker Series.
In fiscal year 2016, for the first time since 2009, the federal budget deficit increased in relation to the nation’s economic output. The Congressional Budget Office projects that over the next decade, if current laws remained generally unchanged, budget deficits would eventually follow an upward trajectory—the result of strong growth in spending for retirement and health care programs targeted to older people and rising interest payments on the government’s debt, accompanied by only modest growth in revenue collections. Those accumulating deficits would drive debt held by the public from its already high level up to its highest percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) since shortly after World War II.
The 2017 Budget and Economic Outlook
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, to the American Business Conference.
In fiscal year 2016, for the first time since 2009, the federal budget deficit increased in relation to the nation’s economic output. The Congressional Budget Office projects that over the next decade, if current laws remained generally unchanged, budget deficits would eventually follow an upward trajectory—the result of strong growth in spending for retirement and health care programs targeted to older people and rising interest payments on the government’s debt, accompanied by only modest growth in revenue collections. Those accumulating deficits would drive debt held by the public from its already high level up to its highest percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) since shortly after World War II.
Overview of the Federal Budget
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) provides budget and economic projections to Congress. CBO projects that mandatory spending on major health care programs and Social Security will increase significantly as a share of GDP through 2025 due to an aging population and rising health care costs. To attain a sustainable federal budget, the United States will need to increase revenues more than currently projected or reduce spending on large benefit programs.
An Overview of The 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook
The document is a presentation by Phillip L. Swagel, Director of the Congressional Budget Office, at the Economic Policy Summit 2020 on September 24, 2020. The presentation provides an overview of CBO's 2020 long-term budget outlook report, including projections for federal debt held by the public, total outlays and revenues, components of outlays and revenues, and the size of policy changes needed to reduce federal debt to 79% or 100% of GDP by 2050.
Productivity and Growth in CBO’s Forecasts
CBO regularly publishes economic projections that are consistent with current law—providing a basis for its estimates of federal revenues, outlays, deficits, and debt. A key element in CBO’s projections is its forecast of potential (maximum sustainable) output, which is based mainly on estimates of the potential labor force, the flow of services from the capital stock, and potential total factor productivity in the nonfarm business sector. This presentation describes CBO’s most recent 10-year economic projections and the methods used to produce them. It also describes how economic developments since the financial crisis and the recession of 2007–2009 have led CBO to revise its projections of productivity and growth in potential output and discusses ways in which the agency is working to improve its methods.
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The 2017 Budget and Economic Outlook
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, to the National Association for Business Economics.
In fiscal year 2016, for the first time since 2009, the federal budget deficit increased in relation to the nation’s economic output. The Congressional Budget Office projects that over the next decade, if current laws remained generally unchanged, budget deficits would eventually follow an upward trajectory—the result of strong growth in spending for retirement and health care programs targeted to older people and rising interest payments on the government’s debt, accompanied by only modest growth in revenue collections. Those accumulating deficits would drive debt held by the public from its already high level up to its highest percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) since shortly after World War II.
CBO’s estimate of the deficit for 2017 has decreased since August 2016, when the agency issued its previous estimates, primarily because mandatory spending is expected to be lower than earlier anticipated. However, the current projection for the cumulative deficit for the 2017–2026 period is about the same as that reported in August.
CBO’s economic forecast—which underlies its budget projections—indicates that under current law, economic growth over the next two years would remain close to the modest rate observed since the end of the recession in 2009. Nevertheless, economic growth would continue to outpace growth in potential (maximum sustainable) GDP and thus continue to reduce the amount of underused resources, or slack, in the economy. The result would be increases in hiring, employment, and wages, along with upward pressure on inflation and interest rates. In the later part of the 10-year projection period, output growth would be constrained by a relatively slow increase in the nation’s supply of labor.
The Budget Outlook
The Congressional Budget Office director Douglas Elmendorf presented on the budget outlook and consequences of high federal debt. He showed projections of growing deficits, spending, and debt as a percentage of GDP through 2023 if current laws remain. High and rising debt reduces flexibility, increases risk of crisis, and means future debt would be larger. It also crowds out investment and imposes long term healthcare and retirement spending pressures. Evaluating policy changes requires considering how much debt is reduced, the speed of reduction, resource allocation, long term growth effects, and distributional burdens across incomes and generations.
The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook
The document summarizes the Congressional Budget Office's 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook press briefing by Director Douglas Elmendorf on September 17, 2013. It includes charts on federal debt held by the public, components of federal spending, total spending and revenues, and other budget projections under different assumptions. The document concludes that the budget is on an unsustainable path and that lawmakers face choices in the magnitude, policies, and timing of deficit reduction.
The 2017 Budget and Economic Outlook
Keith Hall, Director of the Congressional Budget Office, gave a presentation to the Prosperity Caucus on March 30, 2017 about the CBO's Budget and Economic Outlook for 2017 to 2027. The presentation discussed the current budget outlook, projected federal deficits and debt levels, and the CBO's economic forecasts for GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation over the next decade.
The 2017 Budget and Economic Outlook
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, to the National Economists Club.
In fiscal year 2016, for the first time since 2009, the federal budget deficit increased in relation to the nation’s economic output. The Congressional Budget Office projects that over the next decade, if current laws remained generally unchanged, budget deficits would eventually follow an upward trajectory—the result of strong growth in spending for retirement and health care programs targeted to older people and rising interest payments on the government’s debt, accompanied by only modest growth in revenue collections. Those accumulating deficits would drive debt held by the public from its already high level up to its highest percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) since shortly after World War II.
CBO’s estimate of the deficit for 2017 has decreased since August 2016, when the agency issued its previous estimates, primarily because mandatory spending is expected to be lower than earlier anticipated. However, the current projection for the cumulative deficit for the 2017–2026 period is about the same as that reported in August.
CBO’s economic forecast—which underlies its budget projections—indicates that under current law, economic growth over the next two years would remain close to the modest rate observed since the end of the recession in 2009. Nevertheless, economic growth would continue to outpace growth in potential (maximum sustainable) GDP and thus continue to reduce the amount of underused resources, or slack, in the economy. The result would be increases in hiring, employment, and wages, along with upward pressure on inflation and interest rates. In the later part of the 10-year projection period, output growth would be constrained by a relatively slow increase in the nation’s supply of labor.
CBO’s Assessment of the Economic Outlook Over the Next Decade
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, CBO’s Assistant Director for Macroeconomic Analysis, at the University of Michigan’s 63rd Annual Economic Outlook Conference.
Under current law, CBO expects economic activity to expand modestly this year, to grow at a more solid pace in 2016 and 2017, and then to moderate in subsequent years.
CBO: Its Role, Long-Term Projections, and Use of Research
If current laws governing taxes and spending did not change, the condition of the federal budget would worsen considerably over the next three decades. Growth in federal spending would continue to outpace growth in federal revenues, leading to ever larger budget deficits.
Federal spending is projected to rise noticeably in relation to the economy because of growth in spending in Social Security, the major health programs, and interest on the government’s debt. Federal revenues would also increase if current laws remained generally unchanged, but they would increase much more slowly than federal spending.
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, at the 19th annual meeting of the Retirement Research Consortium.
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Both CBO and the Social Security Trustees project a shortfall in Social Security’s finances, but they differ in their assessment of its magnitude. This presentation describes that difference and the major factors that contribute to it.Correcting for Underreporting of Government Transfers: A Regression-Based App...
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CBO’s analyses of the distribution of household income and federal taxes are based on administrative tax data from the Internal Revenue Service’s Statistics of Income (SOI) and on household survey data from the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS). CPS respondents tend to underreport their receipt of government transfers, and the level of underreporting has increased over time. Any CPS-based analysis of the income distribution that does not correct for that underreporting will probably underestimate income growth at the bottom of the distribution and the role of government transfers in reducing income inequality.
In this presentation, CBO outlines a method to correct for underreporting in several transfer programs from 1979 through 2013 and examines the distributional effects of those corrections. The information is preliminary and is being circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment.
Presentation by Bilal Habib, an analyst in CBO’s Tax Analysis Division, at a Washington Center for Equitable Growth workshop on distributional national accounts.The Economic Outlook for 2019 to 2029 in 21 Slides
This presentation of the economic outlook highlights the key findings from CBO’s recent report, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029.
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Gross domestic product, national income, disposable income, and real GDP all gradually increased from 2000 to 2010, with the exception of 2009 which saw a slight decrease due to the Great Recession. The economic growth rate peaked in 2000 at 4.1% before declining to a low of 1% in 2001 and then steadily increasing until reaching 3.8% in 2004, after which it gradually decreased to a low of 0.3% in 2008 during the Great Recession.
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Douglas Elmendorf, Director of the Congressional Budget Office, gave a press briefing on February 4, 2014 about the CBO's projections for the budget and economy from 2014 to 2024. The CBO projected that total federal deficits will decline over the next few years but will rise again after 2018, federal debt held by the public will increase substantially over the projection period, and real GDP, unemployment rates, and labor force participation rates will improve gradually over the next 10 years.
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Was ist angesagt?
The 2017 Budget and Economic Outlook
Presentation by Jeff Werling, Assistant Director, Macroeconomic Analysis Division, for the REALTOR® University Speaker Series.
In fiscal year 2016, for the first time since 2009, the federal budget deficit increased in relation to the nation’s economic output. The Congressional Budget Office projects that over the next decade, if current laws remained generally unchanged, budget deficits would eventually follow an upward trajectory—the result of strong growth in spending for retirement and health care programs targeted to older people and rising interest payments on the government’s debt, accompanied by only modest growth in revenue collections. Those accumulating deficits would drive debt held by the public from its already high level up to its highest percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) since shortly after World War II.
The 2017 Budget and Economic Outlook
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, to the American Business Conference.
In fiscal year 2016, for the first time since 2009, the federal budget deficit increased in relation to the nation’s economic output. The Congressional Budget Office projects that over the next decade, if current laws remained generally unchanged, budget deficits would eventually follow an upward trajectory—the result of strong growth in spending for retirement and health care programs targeted to older people and rising interest payments on the government’s debt, accompanied by only modest growth in revenue collections. Those accumulating deficits would drive debt held by the public from its already high level up to its highest percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) since shortly after World War II.
Overview of the Federal Budget
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) provides budget and economic projections to Congress. CBO projects that mandatory spending on major health care programs and Social Security will increase significantly as a share of GDP through 2025 due to an aging population and rising health care costs. To attain a sustainable federal budget, the United States will need to increase revenues more than currently projected or reduce spending on large benefit programs.
An Overview of The 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook
The document is a presentation by Phillip L. Swagel, Director of the Congressional Budget Office, at the Economic Policy Summit 2020 on September 24, 2020. The presentation provides an overview of CBO's 2020 long-term budget outlook report, including projections for federal debt held by the public, total outlays and revenues, components of outlays and revenues, and the size of policy changes needed to reduce federal debt to 79% or 100% of GDP by 2050.
Productivity and Growth in CBO’s Forecasts
CBO regularly publishes economic projections that are consistent with current law—providing a basis for its estimates of federal revenues, outlays, deficits, and debt. A key element in CBO’s projections is its forecast of potential (maximum sustainable) output, which is based mainly on estimates of the potential labor force, the flow of services from the capital stock, and potential total factor productivity in the nonfarm business sector. This presentation describes CBO’s most recent 10-year economic projections and the methods used to produce them. It also describes how economic developments since the financial crisis and the recession of 2007–2009 have led CBO to revise its projections of productivity and growth in potential output and discusses ways in which the agency is working to improve its methods.
Presentation by Robert Shackleton, an analyst in CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division, at the NABE Foundation's 14th Annual Economic Measurement Seminar.
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This presentation was made by Regina Kearney, United States, at the 15th Annual OECD Public Sector Accruals Symposium held in Paris on 26-27 February 2015.
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The document is a presentation by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Director Phillip L. Swagel to the Prosperity Caucus on October 1, 2020 providing an overview of the CBO's 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook. The presentation examines projections for federal debt levels and the budget deficit through 2050 under current policies and explores the size of policy changes needed to reduce debt to certain targets. It also analyzes the impact on debt projections of varying assumptions around factors like population growth, economic growth, spending levels, and interest rates.
The 2017 Budget and Economic Outlook
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, to the National Association for Business Economics.
In fiscal year 2016, for the first time since 2009, the federal budget deficit increased in relation to the nation’s economic output. The Congressional Budget Office projects that over the next decade, if current laws remained generally unchanged, budget deficits would eventually follow an upward trajectory—the result of strong growth in spending for retirement and health care programs targeted to older people and rising interest payments on the government’s debt, accompanied by only modest growth in revenue collections. Those accumulating deficits would drive debt held by the public from its already high level up to its highest percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) since shortly after World War II.
CBO’s estimate of the deficit for 2017 has decreased since August 2016, when the agency issued its previous estimates, primarily because mandatory spending is expected to be lower than earlier anticipated. However, the current projection for the cumulative deficit for the 2017–2026 period is about the same as that reported in August.
CBO’s economic forecast—which underlies its budget projections—indicates that under current law, economic growth over the next two years would remain close to the modest rate observed since the end of the recession in 2009. Nevertheless, economic growth would continue to outpace growth in potential (maximum sustainable) GDP and thus continue to reduce the amount of underused resources, or slack, in the economy. The result would be increases in hiring, employment, and wages, along with upward pressure on inflation and interest rates. In the later part of the 10-year projection period, output growth would be constrained by a relatively slow increase in the nation’s supply of labor.
The Budget Outlook
The Congressional Budget Office director Douglas Elmendorf presented on the budget outlook and consequences of high federal debt. He showed projections of growing deficits, spending, and debt as a percentage of GDP through 2023 if current laws remain. High and rising debt reduces flexibility, increases risk of crisis, and means future debt would be larger. It also crowds out investment and imposes long term healthcare and retirement spending pressures. Evaluating policy changes requires considering how much debt is reduced, the speed of reduction, resource allocation, long term growth effects, and distributional burdens across incomes and generations.
The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook
The document summarizes the Congressional Budget Office's 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook press briefing by Director Douglas Elmendorf on September 17, 2013. It includes charts on federal debt held by the public, components of federal spending, total spending and revenues, and other budget projections under different assumptions. The document concludes that the budget is on an unsustainable path and that lawmakers face choices in the magnitude, policies, and timing of deficit reduction.
The 2017 Budget and Economic Outlook
Keith Hall, Director of the Congressional Budget Office, gave a presentation to the Prosperity Caucus on March 30, 2017 about the CBO's Budget and Economic Outlook for 2017 to 2027. The presentation discussed the current budget outlook, projected federal deficits and debt levels, and the CBO's economic forecasts for GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation over the next decade.
The 2017 Budget and Economic Outlook
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, to the National Economists Club.
In fiscal year 2016, for the first time since 2009, the federal budget deficit increased in relation to the nation’s economic output. The Congressional Budget Office projects that over the next decade, if current laws remained generally unchanged, budget deficits would eventually follow an upward trajectory—the result of strong growth in spending for retirement and health care programs targeted to older people and rising interest payments on the government’s debt, accompanied by only modest growth in revenue collections. Those accumulating deficits would drive debt held by the public from its already high level up to its highest percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) since shortly after World War II.
CBO’s estimate of the deficit for 2017 has decreased since August 2016, when the agency issued its previous estimates, primarily because mandatory spending is expected to be lower than earlier anticipated. However, the current projection for the cumulative deficit for the 2017–2026 period is about the same as that reported in August.
CBO’s economic forecast—which underlies its budget projections—indicates that under current law, economic growth over the next two years would remain close to the modest rate observed since the end of the recession in 2009. Nevertheless, economic growth would continue to outpace growth in potential (maximum sustainable) GDP and thus continue to reduce the amount of underused resources, or slack, in the economy. The result would be increases in hiring, employment, and wages, along with upward pressure on inflation and interest rates. In the later part of the 10-year projection period, output growth would be constrained by a relatively slow increase in the nation’s supply of labor.
CBO’s Assessment of the Economic Outlook Over the Next Decade
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, CBO’s Assistant Director for Macroeconomic Analysis, at the University of Michigan’s 63rd Annual Economic Outlook Conference.
Under current law, CBO expects economic activity to expand modestly this year, to grow at a more solid pace in 2016 and 2017, and then to moderate in subsequent years.
CBO: Its Role, Long-Term Projections, and Use of Research
If current laws governing taxes and spending did not change, the condition of the federal budget would worsen considerably over the next three decades. Growth in federal spending would continue to outpace growth in federal revenues, leading to ever larger budget deficits.
Federal spending is projected to rise noticeably in relation to the economy because of growth in spending in Social Security, the major health programs, and interest on the government’s debt. Federal revenues would also increase if current laws remained generally unchanged, but they would increase much more slowly than federal spending.
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, at the 19th annual meeting of the Retirement Research Consortium.
An Overview of The 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook
Presentation by Phill Swagel, CBO’s Director, to the National Association of Home Builders’ Financial Institutions and Capital Markets Subcommittee
Comparing CBO’s Long-Term Projections With Those of the Social Security Trustees
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Presentation by Julie Topoleski, Chief of the Long-Term Analysis Unit in CBO’s Health, Retirement, and Long-Term Analysis Division, to the Social Security Advisory Board.
Both CBO and the Social Security Trustees project a shortfall in Social Security’s finances, but they differ in their assessment of its magnitude. This presentation describes that difference and the major factors that contribute to it.Correcting for Underreporting of Government Transfers: A Regression-Based App...
Correcting for Underreporting of Government Transfers: A Regression-Based App...Congressional Budget Office
CBO’s analyses of the distribution of household income and federal taxes are based on administrative tax data from the Internal Revenue Service’s Statistics of Income (SOI) and on household survey data from the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS). CPS respondents tend to underreport their receipt of government transfers, and the level of underreporting has increased over time. Any CPS-based analysis of the income distribution that does not correct for that underreporting will probably underestimate income growth at the bottom of the distribution and the role of government transfers in reducing income inequality.
In this presentation, CBO outlines a method to correct for underreporting in several transfer programs from 1979 through 2013 and examines the distributional effects of those corrections. The information is preliminary and is being circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment.
Presentation by Bilal Habib, an analyst in CBO’s Tax Analysis Division, at a Washington Center for Equitable Growth workshop on distributional national accounts.The Economic Outlook for 2019 to 2029 in 21 Slides
This presentation of the economic outlook highlights the key findings from CBO’s recent report, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029.
Data Mining - Power Point
Gross domestic product, national income, disposable income, and real GDP all gradually increased from 2000 to 2010, with the exception of 2009 which saw a slight decrease due to the Great Recession. The economic growth rate peaked in 2000 at 4.1% before declining to a low of 1% in 2001 and then steadily increasing until reaching 3.8% in 2004, after which it gradually decreased to a low of 0.3% in 2008 during the Great Recession.
Press Briefing on The Budget and Economic Outlook
Douglas Elmendorf, Director of the Congressional Budget Office, gave a press briefing on February 4, 2014 about the CBO's projections for the budget and economy from 2014 to 2024. The CBO projected that total federal deficits will decline over the next few years but will rise again after 2018, federal debt held by the public will increase substantially over the projection period, and real GDP, unemployment rates, and labor force participation rates will improve gradually over the next 10 years.
Was ist angesagt? (20)
Fiscal sustainability reporting by the US government - Regina Kearney, United...
Fiscal sustainability reporting by the US government - Regina Kearney, United...
CBO’s Assessment of the Economic Outlook Over the Next Decade
CBO’s Assessment of the Economic Outlook Over the Next Decade
CBO: Its Role, Long-Term Projections, and Use of Research
CBO: Its Role, Long-Term Projections, and Use of Research
Comparing CBO’s Long-Term Projections With Those of the Social Security Trustees
Comparing CBO’s Long-Term Projections With Those of the Social Security Trustees
Correcting for Underreporting of Government Transfers: A Regression-Based App...
Correcting for Underreporting of Government Transfers: A Regression-Based App...
The Economic Outlook for 2019 to 2029 in 21 Slides
The Economic Outlook for 2019 to 2029 in 21 Slides
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Krócej niż zwykle, bośmy obejrzeli pare filmów z badań komunikacji multimodalnej oraz... fragmentów filmów fabularnych. Te ostatnie są niekiedy bardziej intrygujące niż przykłady analizowane w podręcznikach pragmatyki.
5 Proven Ways To Practice Dolce Far Niente
This document discusses the Italian concept of "Dolce Far Niente", which translates to "sweet idleness" or "the sweetness of doing nothing". It is described as the Italian version of mindfulness, involving relaxation and moderation. The document provides context on how Italians have practiced it for ages as an art form of being idle. It then discusses how to practice Dolce Far Niente through scheduling free time, preparing meals with loved ones, using the five senses, and electronic detox.
The history-of-pragmatics
This document provides an overview of the development of the field of pragmatics. It discusses three stages: 1) the origins of pragmatics in the 1930s-1940s, 2) the establishment of speech act theory and implicature theory from 1950-1960, and 3) pragmatics becoming an independent discipline from the 1970s onward. It also describes two schools of pragmatics - the British/American school focusing on grammar and micro-level aspects, and the European school taking a broader, macro-level approach integrating other fields.
Метасообщество
Метасообщество молодых ученых, инноваторов и технологических предпринимателей. Вводная часть проектной сессии в преддверии проведения Russian Startup Tour.
Обоснование необходимости создания
Oneresearch research services
This document discusses research support services provided by OneResearch to postgraduate students. OneResearch consultants can assist students throughout the entire research process, from project definition and research design to data collection, analysis, and writing up results. They offer one-on-one coaching and small group training tailored to each student's needs. Their experts, Dr. Jane Klobas and Dr. Bruce Mackintosh, have extensive experience in research methods and supervision.
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The International Institute for Science, Technology and Education (IISTE). Science, Technology and Medicine Journals Call for Academic Manuscripts
Spant e
The document argues that Net Domestic Product (NDP) should replace Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the primary measure of economic growth for three reasons:
1) GDP includes depreciation (replacement of worn out equipment), which does not increase economic capacity or resources available for consumption, while NDP excludes depreciation.
2) Rapid growth in information and communication technologies has increased depreciation significantly relative to GDP in recent decades, widening the gap between GDP and NDP growth rates.
3) NDP is a better measure of economic welfare and potential for real wage and profit increases because it excludes replacement of worn out capital, which does not increase living standards.
CBO’s Economic Forecast: Understanding the Slowdown of Productivity Growth
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The document discusses CBO's economic forecasting approach and reasons for the recent slowdown in productivity growth in the US. CBO forecasts potential and actual output using a neoclassical growth framework and macroeconometric model. It then analyzes five potential factors contributing to slowing productivity growth: measurement issues, growth feedbacks, demographic effects, structural issues, and a slowdown in basic innovation.Measurement of Economic Growth
This document examines the measurement of economic growth in Nigeria using gross domestic product (GDP) data from 1980 to 2014. It defines GDP and related terms like gross national product, real GDP, nominal GDP, and GDP deflator. GDP is the total value of goods and services produced within a country in a year. Real GDP accounts for inflation to measure actual economic output. The author analyzes Nigeria's GDP figures over the period and finds little significant economic growth. They recommend the government improve infrastructure to aid business and formulate sound monetary and fiscal policies to mitigate inflation and boost productivity.
CopyofProject3FinalAnalysisofUSEconomy
The document analyzes the current state of the US economy and argues that while GDP and unemployment rates show recovery, income inequality has increased. It summarizes that GDP and unemployment have improved significantly since the recession but wages have grown slowly, many workers are underemployed or dropped from the labor force, and gains have disproportionately benefited the wealthy while median income has declined.
Introducing Yellen
Yellen stresses the importance of addressing high prolonged unemployment to prevent it from becoming structural. She judges the strength of the labor market using multiple indicators including the U6 unemployment rate, the gap between actual and estimated NAIRU rates, and measures of job availability and quits. Yellen supports an "optimal control" monetary policy rule that aims to minimize unemployment and inflation gaps, prescribing lower rates when output gaps are wide. She expects the Fed will follow a balanced monetary policy approach once unemployment falls to around 6.5%, likely in 2014-2015.
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This document summarizes key economic indicators in the United States from 2005 to 2015. It discusses components of GDP like consumption, investment, government spending and net exports. It also analyzes unemployment rates, inflation, oil prices and consumer confidence. The economy recovered from the Great Recession, with GDP and consumption increasing steadily in recent years. However, inflation remains low and unemployment higher than pre-recession levels, suggesting more room for improvement. Falling oil prices could boost growth but also pose deflation risks if price declines continue.
Current Austrlian Economic Trends and 2015 Predictions
This report analyzes the current economic situation in Australia and forecasts trends for 2015. It finds that while the Australian economy grew 3.1% in 2014, below the long-term trend of 3.2%, growth is expected to slow further to 2.5% in 2015 as the economy transitions out of the mining boom. Key indicators like rising unemployment, weak wage growth, and declining consumer confidence point to weakness in consumption. Business investment is also slowing due to falling mining investment and lower consumer demand. While government policy aims to boost non-mining business investment, high budget deficits pose a threat to growth in 2015. Overall the report argues Australia is in a contraction phase and growth will likely remain below trend next year.
PLEASE REWORD THESE PARAGRAPHS IN YOUR OWN WORDS. PLEASE DO NOT US.docx
PLEASE REWORD THESE PARAGRAPHS IN YOUR OWN WORDS. PLEASE DO NOT USE THE SAME WORDS AS IN THE PARAGRAPHS. THANKS.
· 1-According to Lisa Huddlestun, "Macroeconomics is the study of behaviors and activities of the economy as a whole, looks at such areas as the Federal Reserve System, unemployment, gross domestic product (GDP), and business cycles" (Huddlestun 2015.) The Federal Reserve System's most important attribute is the regulation of the supply of money in circulation. This is important to the economy because it influences interest rates, money available for loans, and the overall price level of the economy. Unemployment could mean a loss of income for individuals and lost production for the economy. There are three type of unemployment; frictional unemployment, cyclical unemployment, and structural unemployment. Frictional includes people that have quit their jobs or have been fired causing them to be unemployed. Cyclical is related to the economy, such as being laid off during a recession. Structural unemployment is when someone hasn't been hired because they do not have the required skills or do not live in a high employment area. The gross domestic product (GDP) is determined by total economic spending. Economic spending includes consumer, business, and government spending. Lisa states, GDP is "the market value of all final products produced in a year's time" (Huddlestun 2015.) Economic performance is measured by GDP. An increase in GDP means the economy is growing. GDP also determines if there will be inflation or not. Policy makers look at past and present GDP to formulate policies to help economic growth. If we have economic growth then we could have an increase in production of goods and services. Microeconomics according to Lisa is, "the individual components of the economy, such as costs of production, maximizing profits, and the different market structures" (Huddlestun 2015.) Businesses are the suppliers of goods and services the individual wants. Most businesses want to make a profit, or maximize their profits. The level of output must be determined to help result in the greatest profit. Cost of production has a huge part in this. There are two types of cost production; variable and fixed costs. Fixed costs are costs that do not vary with the level of output, for example a rent payment. Variable costs are cost that change with level of output, like wages and raw material.
· 2-This was a great video for the theory of supply and demand. I was able to relate particularly about the housing market as someone who was a real estate investor in 2005. It was a real experience of supply and demand. Briefly in video, the breakdown of three concepts are covered supply curve, demand curve, and equilibrium. The supply curve is an illustration for supply and price relationship. When prices go up, supplies increase as well and vice versa. The demand curve is an illustration for demand and price relationship. When prices go up, dem.
Decline in Labor Productivity in Italy: A Macroeconomic Perspective
This document analyzes the decline in labor productivity in Italy from 2000-2018 using a vector autoregression (VAR) framework. It discusses previous studies that have examined the relationship between productivity shocks and hours worked in other countries. The document provides context on structural imbalances in Italy's labor market and various reforms that have been undertaken to address issues like low employment levels, regional disparities, and rigid wage bargaining. It aims to explore potential explanations for Italy's ongoing slowdown in productivity growth through different VAR specifications.
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1Introduction My name is Yinan Hong. I am your port.docx
1
Introduction
My name is Yinan Hong. I am your portfolio manager from Trailblazer
Investment Advisors. I am a CFA charter holder, equipped with sufficient financial
knowledge. I will help my customers manage their wealth and try my best to gain??
as much as possible. There are three objectives for my clients, Sam and Amy
Kratchman who have recently inherited … and have current savingswith
$1,100,000(on an after-tax basis) inheritance. The first one is having enough money
for their life after retirement at age 65. The second objective is raising college tuition
for their two children. The last one is to buy a beach house with newfound inheritance.
Ending summary
Economic Analysis
2014
GDP Growth
The economic recovery of United States in 2014 became a light brightspot in
global economy after the 2009 recession. The low price level do you mean low infl?
If so that isn’t really a great thing at the current time, decreasing unemployment rate,
better development of the what is the estate?estate and manufacturing industry made
the economy continuously recover although at a much lower rate than prev recoveries.
However, some important indexes like the investment of the real estate, income of
amy kratchman � 2016/10/16 12:32 PM
已设置格式: ⾏行行距: 1.5 倍⾏行行距
2
residents residents?, manufacturing have not reached to the same level as it performed
before the recession in 2014 – true – but RE was performing very well and is a strong
area of growth in 14. The percentage change in Real Gross Domestic Product in 2014
increased in the former three quarters and then decrease in the Q4.not true
In the first quarter, the change of GDP was 2.1% not correctnegative growth1.
The most important factor was the abominable weather. The personal consumption
expenditures for nondurable goods decreased because 1what is this? the inconvenient
of buying your table (footnoted) does not imply a decrease. The Gross private
domestic investment decreased 6.6% because of the huge lower equipment
investment1. The exports decreased extremely and the imports increased. They all led
to the negative growth.
Figure12 : CCI Index in 2014
The GDP growth reached to 4.0% in the second quarter. By analyzing the
components that affected overall GDP growth, personal consumption expenditures
1http://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=9&step=1#reqid=9&step=3&isuri=1&904=2013&903=1&9
06=q&905=2016&910=x&911=0
2 FactSet
3
and gross private domestic investment played an important role in this significant
growth. Consumption contributed 2.56% change in GDP. After the severe weather,
the private inventory investment, exports, fixed investment, and non-federal
government spending increased.this is a rebound in pretty much all areas However, 5%
more imports negatively impact GDP and offset those positive contributors.
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) also ...
R42063
This document discusses the relationship between economic growth and unemployment rates. It finds that a persistently high unemployment rate remains a concern for Congress. While the unemployment rate has declined since peaking in 2009 and 2010, it remains elevated by historical standards. The key driver of unemployment over the long run is the rate of economic growth compared to potential growth. For unemployment to significantly decline, growth needs to outpace the combined growth of the labor force and productivity. Recent recoveries, including from the 2007-2009 recession, have seen slow declines in unemployment, described as "jobless recoveries."
Chapter 2 Economic Activity
The document defines key economic indicators such as GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment rate, personal income, and productivity. It states that GDP is the total value of final goods and services produced in a country in one year across four categories: consumer spending, business spending, government spending, and exports minus imports. GDP per capita is GDP divided by population and shows economic growth. The unemployment rate shows the portion of the labor force that is unemployed and available for work. Personal income includes salaries, wages, investments, and government payments to individuals. Productivity is important for economic growth as it determines the level of goods and services an economy can produce.
term1.pdf
It's a term paper regarding GDP of Nepal . It analysis different activities that contributed GDP of Nepal from 2018 to 2022
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Unemployment levels in Canada have remained persistently high for almost a decade, averaging around 6-7%. This is due to several factors, including a slow economic recovery from the 2008 crisis, high minimum wages, and social issues like drug abuse. Unemployment negatively impacts individuals through loss of income and living standards, and society through increased crime. Solutions proposed include diversifying trade partnerships, reducing interest rates, promoting foreign investment, and addressing substance abuse issues.
Why you shouldn’t get too excited about the jobs picture
While the November jobs report showed an encouraging drop in the unemployment rate to 7.7% and job creation above estimates, the author argues one shouldn't get too excited about the jobs picture. The unemployment rate decline was partly due to fewer people looking for work. The number of unemployed at 12.1 million remains well above pre-recession levels, and the jobs being created tend to be low-paying, doing little to boost the broader economy. For stronger economic growth, higher-wage jobs need to be generated.
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The document discusses employment trends over the past 20 years and policies related to employment and development. It notes that employment is a key factor in poverty reduction but that economic crises negatively impact employment conditions. Six major labor market trends are outlined, including declining employment rates and increasing casualization of labor. Both short-term and long-term national employment policies are examined. The document also considers how development aid could be framed to better promote employment creation.Ähnlich wie CBO's Economic Projections (20)
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"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
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6:个人职称评审加20分
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8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
OAT_RI_Ep20 WeighingTheRisks_May24_Trade Wars.pptx
How will new technology fields affect economic trade?
Who Is Abhay Bhutada, MD of Poonawalla Fincorp
Abhay Bhutada, the Managing Director of Poonawalla Fincorp Limited, is an accomplished leader with over 15 years of experience in commercial and retail lending. A Qualified Chartered Accountant, he has been pivotal in leveraging technology to enhance financial services. Starting his career at Bank of India, he later founded TAB Capital Limited and co-founded Poonawalla Finance Private Limited, emphasizing digital lending. Under his leadership, Poonawalla Fincorp achieved a 'AAA' credit rating, integrating acquisitions and emphasizing corporate governance. Actively involved in industry forums and CSR initiatives, Abhay has been recognized with awards like "Young Entrepreneur of India 2017" and "40 under 40 Most Influential Leader for 2020-21." Personally, he values mindfulness, enjoys gardening, yoga, and sees every day as an opportunity for growth and improvement.
1：1制作加拿大麦吉尔大学毕业证硕士学历证书原版一模一样
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留信网认证的作用:
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6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
South Dakota State University degree offer diploma Transcript
办理美国SDSU毕业证书制作南达科他州立大学假文凭定制Q微168899991做SDSU留信网教留服认证海牙认证改SDSU成绩单GPA做SDSU假学位证假文凭高仿毕业证GRE代考如何申请南达科他州立大学South Dakota State University degree offer diploma Transcript
Using Online job postings and survey data to understand labour market trends
Using Online job postings and survey data to understand labour market trendsLabour Market Information Council | Conseil de l’information sur le marché du travail
[4:55 p.m.] Bryan Oates
OJPs are becoming a critical resource for policy-makers and researchers who study the labour market. LMIC continues to work with Vicinity Jobs’ data on OJPs, which can be explored in our Canadian Job Trends Dashboard. Valuable insights have been gained through our analysis of OJP data, including LMIC research lead
Suzanne Spiteri’s recent report on improving the quality and accessibility of job postings to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
Decoding job postings: Improving accessibility for neurodivergent job seekers
Improving the quality and accessibility of job postings is one way to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.Tdasx: In-Depth Analysis of Cryptocurrency Giveaway Scams and Security Strate...
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International Sustainability Standards Board
Issb standards
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Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...AntoniaOwensDetwiler
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.Ending stagnation: How to boost prosperity across Scotland
A toxic combination of 15 years of low growth, and four decades of high inequality, has left Britain poorer and falling behind its peers. Productivity growth is weak and public investment is low, while wages today are no higher than they were before the financial crisis. Britain needs a new economic strategy to lift itself out of stagnation.
Scotland is in many ways a microcosm of this challenge. It has become a hub for creative industries, is home to several world-class universities and a thriving community of businesses – strengths that need to be harness and leveraged. But it also has high levels of deprivation, with homelessness reaching a record high and nearly half a million people living in very deep poverty last year. Scotland won’t be truly thriving unless it finds ways to ensure that all its inhabitants benefit from growth and investment. This is the central challenge facing policy makers both in Holyrood and Westminster.
What should a new national economic strategy for Scotland include? What would the pursuit of stronger economic growth mean for local, national and UK-wide policy makers? How will economic change affect the jobs we do, the places we live and the businesses we work for? And what are the prospects for cities like Glasgow, and nations like Scotland, in rising to these challenges?
Bridging the gap: Online job postings, survey data and the assessment of job ...
Bridging the gap: Online job postings, survey data and the assessment of job ...Labour Market Information Council | Conseil de l’information sur le marché du travail
OJP data from firms like Vicinity Jobs have emerged as a complement to traditional sources of labour demand data, such as the Job Vacancy and Wages Survey (JVWS). Ibrahim Abuallail, PhD Candidate, University of Ottawa, presented research relating to bias in OJPs and a proposed approach to effectively adjust OJP data to complement existing official data (such as from the JVWS) and improve the measurement of labour demand.Kürzlich hochgeladen (20)
Eco-Innovations and Firm Heterogeneity. Evidence from Italian Family and Nonf...
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Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024)
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How Does CRISIL Evaluate Lenders in India for Credit Ratings
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South Dakota State University degree offer diploma Transcript
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Using Online job postings and survey data to understand labour market trends
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Tdasx: In-Depth Analysis of Cryptocurrency Giveaway Scams and Security Strate...
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Tumelo-deep-dive-into-pass-through-voting-Feb23 (1).pdf
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Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...
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Ending stagnation: How to boost prosperity across Scotland
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Bridging the gap: Online job postings, survey data and the assessment of job ...
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CBO's Economic Projections
- 1. Congressional Budget Office Presentation at the NYU Stern Economic Outlook Forum New York City, New York Wendy Edelberg Assistant Director, Macroeconomic Analysis CBO’s Economic Projections September 8, 2015
- 3. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 2 Growth of Real GDP
- 4. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 3 Contributions to the Growth of Real GDP
- 5. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 4 Real Total Compensation of Employees
- 6. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 5 Business Investment
- 7. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 6 Household Formation
- 8. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 7 Growth of Trade
- 10. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 9 Rates of Short- and Long-Term Unemployment
- 11. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 10 Underuse of Labor
- 12. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 11 Employment Shortfall The employment shortfall is the number of people who would be employed if the unemployment rate equaled its rate in December 2007 (the light blue bars) and if the labor force participation rate equaled its potential rate (the dark blue bars).
- 13. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 12 The Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment
- 14. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 13 Labor Force Participation Rates
- 15. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 14 Hourly Labor Compensation
- 16. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 15
- 17. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 16 GDP and Potential GDP
- 18. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 17 Inflation
- 19. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 18 Forecasts of Interest Rates by CBO, the Federal Reserve, and Federal Funds Futures
- 20. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 19 Interest Rates
- 21. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 20 Nominal and Real 10-Year Treasury Notes *Calculated using the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
- 22. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 21 Spread Between 10-Year Treasury Notes and 3-Month Treasury Bills
- 23. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 22 Interest Rates on 10-Year Treasury Notes