International Seminar on Urban Form Held in Rome 22-26 September, 2015

1. Taming the Sprawl: Growth of a Peri-urban
City and Policy Response
Samuel Dekolo
Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Lagos State Polytechnic, Nigeria
Leke Oduwaye & Immaculata Nwokoro
Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Lagos, Nigeria
city as an organism
new visions for urban life

2.  This presentation examines the organic growth of Ikorodu,
a peri-urban municipality, for a period of 40 years (1975-
2015)
 It uses remote sensing and GIS to determine urban spatial
expansion and fractal dimension.
 We also explain the use of fractal dimension to indicates
sprawling and correlate it with agricultural land loss
 The result of empirical study of 300 land owners to
indicate the ineffective land management
 Recommendation are made for sustainable urban growth
without threats agriculture and food security .
ISUF ITALY 2015
Presentation Overview
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3. INTRODUCTION
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4.  The growth of cities in most developing countries is Dynamic, Diverse and
Disordered –and spatially extensive. This growth, which is synonymous
with sprawl occurs in peripheral areas of metropolitan regions resulting to
natural resource depletion and diminution of agricultural and ecological
lands.
 Peri-urban towns and communities of cities often lack clear planning
administration and regulation, thereby giving room for unguided growth
 While several studies on the peri-urban interface have focussed on land use
change and agricultural economics, empirical investigations on the drivers
and policy responses to morphological processes of non-contiguous peri-
urban settlements in sub-Saharan Africa remains lacking in literature.
 The study identifies effect of the organic growth pattern of the city of
Ikorodu in the last four decades and the response of urban planning
policies to this emerging edge city.
ISUF ITALY 2015
Introduction
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5.  One of the most current global assessment of urban and peri-
urban agriculture shows that 67.4 Mha (5.9%) of global croplands
(i.e., irrigated and rain-fed croplands) are located within the urban
extent, while 1078.7 Mha (94.1%) of the same are located within
20km distance range of the urban extents (peri-urban zone).
 Nigeria’s land share of agricultural land grew from 58.4% in 1961 to
79% in 2012, while its arable land increased from 26% (236,765 km2)
to 38% (350,000 km2) in the same period. However, its total
population grew from 45.2 million in 1961 to 169.2 million in 2012,
the hectares of arable land per person from 0.51 in 1961 to 0.21 in
2012(FAO,2015). Its Physiological density increased from 195 to
484 persons per hectare of arable land putting more pressure on
land for food
ISUF ITALY 2015
Peri-urban Lands: Why are we
concerned?
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6.  A review of the 1980-2000 Regional Plan of Lagos State
indicates that only 6.55 % out of the 37.24% (133,203 ha) of
the state land budgeted for agricultural land use in the plan
remained in 2002 (LASG,2002).
 The 133,203 hectares of land allocated to agricultural land
use in the Regional Plan was located in four municipalities
that were outside the contiguous Lagos metropolitan area:
59,934 hectares located in Ibeju-Lekki, 15,966.92 hectares in
Badagry, 19,986.3 hectares in Epe and 18,383.5 hectares in
Ikorodu (the study area).
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…Peri-urban Lands: Global to Local
Trends for concern
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7. ISUF ITALY 2015
The study area Ikorodu, is a
municipality (Local
Government Area) in the
outskirt of Lagos Metropolis
located approximately 36km
North East of Lagos between
longitude 3.43o W and 3.7ow
and latitude 6.68on and 6.53on
north of the equator.
The Study Area : Ikorodu
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8. The Study Area: Ikorodu
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 Its area is approximately 396.5 sq.
km. Since its creation in 1968 as one
of the five administrative divisions of
Lagos State, Ikorodu has been known
for its extensive farmlands. It houses
several hectares of land acquired for
farm settlements by the defunct
government of Western Region of
Nigeria and subsequently,
approximately 180 sq. km (49%) of its
landmass was zone for agricultural
land use in the 1980-2000 Regional
plan of Lagos State.
Vegetable Farm
in Ikorodu
Fishermen at
Ijede
Fish Farm Estate
Odogunyan
Rice Mill at
Agbowa
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9. The Study Area: Ikorodu
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 While farming, fishing and trading,
are basic sources of livelihood of
indigenes, the location of the a
1,582.27 hectares industrial estate
(the largest in Nigeria) by the Lagos
State Government in 1976 has also
served as a major pull factor leading
to population growth.
 However, other pull factors include
development of a light port
terminal at Ipakodo, the expansion
of the Lagos-Ikorodu road and the
establishment of secondary and
tertiary sector activities.
PZ Industry
Ikorodu
Ikorodu Port
Expanded
Ikorodu Road
Egbin Power
Plant
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10. The Study Area: Ikorodu
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 Since the development of the Lagos
State Polytechnic and other
government institutions in Ikorodu,
a lot of people have been attracted
to develop residential properties.
 Lagos Home Ownership and
Mortgage Scheme (HOMS) is a
government housing initiative.
 There is an aggressive drive by
Private developers to build houses
and sell lands
Lagos State
Polytechnic Ikorodu
Flour Mills Ikorodu
near Port
Lagos HOMS Estate
Igbogbo
Aggressive Private
Residential Housing
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11. ISUF ITALY 2015
While the population of Lagos
State grew at 59.19% and the
core metropolis at 52%
between the 1991 and 2006
Census periods, Ikorodu had
the highest growth rate
surpassing the whole state put
together and the core urban
area, with 185.86% growth rate.
Ikorodu has a
Dynamic Demography
Divisions L.G.A.
Number
Census-1963
(P1)
Census-1991
(P2)
Census-2006
(P3)
Growth
Rate (%)
(P2/P1)
Growth
Rate (%)
(P3/P2)
Lagos 5 665,346 1,213,200 1,549,042 82.34 27.68
Ikeja 8 525,767 3,046,353 4,873,924 470.46 59.99
Badagry 4 122,159 1,154,488 1,863,195 845.07 61.39
Epe 2 130,395 126,401 299,527 -3.25 136.97
Ikorodu 1 128,119* 184,674 527,917 44.12 185.86
Lagos State 20 1,571,786 5,725,116 9,113,605 264.24 59.19
Source: Adapted from Thomas(1997); NPC, 1991; NPC,2006
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12. ISUF ITALY 2015
Though a functional
urban area, the study
reveals integration with
the urban core with over
40% of the residents
working in the core
metropolitan Lagos.
Ikorodu within the
Lagos Megacity
Region
Source: FGN. (2006). Report of the Presidential Committee on Redevelopment of
Lagos Megacity Region. Lagos: Federal Government of Nigeria.
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13. Research Framework
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Urban Policies
•Efficiency
•Equity
•Sustainability
Urban
Forms/Patterns
•Technopolis/Econopolis/A
nthropopolis
•Compact/Sprawl
•Efficient use/ Inefficient
use
Urban Processes
•Societal
•Institutional
•Individual
 First, we were able to describe the
emerging peri-urban form and pattern
through urban change detection and
pattern analysis and the relationship
with agricultural land change
 Second, we investigated the
underlying processes contributing to
the emerging form
 Third, we examined the efficiency of
urban planning policies in redirecting
the processes and pattern of the
emerging form
Modified from Daniel Sui 1998

14. Methodology
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15. Acquisition
Date
Satellite Number Sensor Type
WRS
Path/Row
UTM Zone Datum
Spatial
Resolution (M)
Sources &
Year
06/01/2015 Landsat 8 OLI_TIRS 191/55 31N WGS84 28.5-30 USGS, 2015
03/01/2011 Landsat 7 ETM+ 191/55 31 N WGS84 28.5-30
USGS, 2011
07/12/2006 Landsat 7 ETM+ 191/55 31 N WGS84 28.5-30 USGS, 2006
06/02/2000 Landsat 7 ETM+ 191/55 31 N WGS84 28.5-30
USGS, 2000
27/12/1990 Landsat 4 TM 191/55 31 N WGS84 28.5-30
USGS, 1990
18/12/1984 Landsat 5 TM 191/55 31 N WGS84 28.5-30 USGS, 1984
Supporting Spatial Data/Demographic Data
1976/78 Land Use/Land Cover Map
FORMECU,
1978
1980 The Lagos State Regional Plan (1980-2000)
Doxiadis
Associates,
1980
National Population Census 1963, 1991, 2006 NPC 1991, 2006
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Data Sources for RS/GIS

16. Urban Form and Pattern Detection in
Remote Sensing/GIS
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 In this research, we adopted a 5-years
interval multi-temporal analysis from
multi-spectral remote sense data for
available periods (1984, 1990, 2000, 2006,
2011, and 2015).
 RGB composite rasters were developed
from multi-spectral imageries and were
further classified by means of ISODATA
unsupervised algorithm in ArcGIS.
 Built-up urban areas were extracted and
coded black and other classes of land
cover types were coded white. The
classified imagery were subsequently
analysed for their fractal dimensions using
software known as Fractalyse (version
2.3.2).
WORKFLOW FOR CHANGE DETECTION/PATTERN ANALYSIS

17. Pattern Detection: Fractal Analysis
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 Fractal Analysis was used to determine
the morphological pattern (this has been
widely used in Europe is studying peri-
urbanization process).
 Fractal analysis gives the description of
the spatial arrangement of built-up areas
as well as its quality.
 Highly fragmented built-up areas
representing a sprawling pattern have
low fractal dimensions, while compaction
and regularity will attract a higher figure.
 Fractal dimensions may have figures
ranging from 1 to 2 for simple geometrical
objects and 0 to 2 for urban geometry
similar to sierpinski carpets (Tannier &
Pumain, 2005). Source: Encarnação, S., et al., Fractal cartography of urban areas. Scientific
Reports, 2012. 2: p. 527.

18. Fractal Analysis
The series of points obtained are
represented by a Cartesian graph with the Y-
axis corresponding to the number of
counted element (N) and the X-axis
corresponding the value of the reference
element ε (ε =2.r+1).
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Radial mass method was used in Fractalyse
software in which the total number of pixels
or elements (N) within a counting window or
reference element (ε) and radius of the
circle enlarged gradually
COUNTING METHOD ESTIMATION OF ‘D’
The empirical curve of the plot is then fitted
with the estimated curve; a good fit indicate
fractality. however, the quality of estimation
was verified by correlation coefficient.

19. Year Population
Population
Density
per sqkm.
Urban Area
(Ha)
Annual
Urban
Change
Rate
Allocated
Agric. Land
Change to
Urban (Ha)
Allocated
Agric.
Land (Ha).
% of
Allocated
Agric. Land
Loss.
Agric. Land
Change
Dynamic
Index
Fractal
Dimension.
(D)
a
Corr.
Coeff.
1975 154377 389 419.00 0.00 0 17903 0.0 0.0 0.411 172.16 0.86
1984 170535 430 2252.05 229.13 274 17629 1.5
1.5
0.788 108 0.98
1990 182654 461 2961.83 118.30 707 17196 3.9
2.5
0.924 66.07 0.99
2000 390620 985 4587.01 162.52 871 17032 4.9
1.0
0.933 109.5 0.98
2006 527917 1331 7506.12 486.52 1425 16478 8.0
3.3
1.194 34.04 0.99
2011 946722 2388 9087.45 316.26 2293 15609 12.8
5.3
1.308 19.15 1.00
2015 1510594 3810 13772.10 1171.16 4615 13288 25.8
14.9
1.438 12.33 1.00
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Fractal Dimension and Agricultural
Land Use Change
Source: Authors’ feild work,2015.

20. ISUF ITALY 2015 20
The Morphological Process
1984
20152006
2000

21. ISUF ITALY 2015 21
The Forming Process: Sprawl and Infilling
2001
20152011
2006

22.  Peri-urbanization process in Ikorodu in the past four decades reveals
dynamism in urban change as well as a sprawling development pattern.
 The fractal analysis of the study area based on remote sensed
imageries shows a steady organic growth, in which sprawling precedes
infilling (see previous slide).
 The values of fractal dimension increased steadily form the lowest 0.41
in 1975 to a low 1.44 value in 2015.
 A value below 1 indicates lack of connectivity of elements in the built-up
space, while values slightly above 1 indicates sprawl. The highest fractal
dimension (D) value in this research is 1.44, which indicates sprawl.
 The implication of this pattern is the loss of valuable agricultural land
to urban development, which has great repercussions on sustainable
food production and security.
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Implication of Growth Pattern

23. Peri-urban growth and Agricultural
Land Loss
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 Furthermore, in order to
ascertain effect of the sprawling
pattern on agricultural land, we
extracted the urban extents
layer in ArcGIS by intersect
geoprocessing with the
agricultural land zone of the
Regional Plan of Lagos State of
1980.
 The relationship between fractal
dimension and dynamics index
of agricultural change was
determined by regression
analysis. Source: Authors’ Feild Work, 2015
Map of Ikorodu Showing Urban Growth and Extents in Agricultural Zone (1984-2015)

24. The Effect of Peri-urban growth on
Agricultural Land
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 The regression analysis reveals that 60% of
the variation in the Agricultural Land
Dynamic Change Index is explained by the
variable Fractal Dimension.
 This indicates a strong positive correlation
between fractal dimension ‘D’ and change
dynamic index (CDI) for allocated
agricultural land (r= 0.78 at 0.04 level of
significance).
 This is because the more the infilling of
sprawled spaces, the more the value of the
fractal dimension (D) and the more loss of
peri-urban agricultural land.
 Even though this pattern of growth is
noticeable in most cities’ growth
throughout history, in which ‘D’ increases
with time, the pertinent question is how
efficient is our existing regional plans?
Source: Authors’ Feild Work, 2015
Chart Showing Relationship between Fractal Dimension with Agricultural Land
Dynamic Change Index
y = 11.301x - 7.2465
R² = 0.602
y = 11.301x - 7.2465
R² = 1
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Agric.LandDynamicChangeIndex
Dispersed-- -Fractal Dim. (D)-- -- Compact
Fractal Dim. (D) Line Fit Plot
Agric. Land Change Index
Predicted Agric. Land
Change Index
Linear (Agric. Land
Change Index)
Linear (Predicted Agric.
Land Change Index)

25. What are the underlying processes
leading to Ikorodu’s Growth and
Policy Response?
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26.  Urban morphology cannot be divorced from anthropogenic factors, therefore a
survey was carried out among house owners across 61 communities in the 6 Local
Council Development Areas (LCDAs) of Ikorodu to determine the motivation for
their choice of residential development in Ikorodu
 The result shows that less money and time spent form location, proximity to work
and health reasons are the reasons for respondents’ choice to develop in Ikorodu.
 Over 50% live and work in Ikorodu and 72% are non-indigenes (This indicates
migration also influences peri-urban growth).
 58% lived in the core metropolis of Lagos before coming to Ikorodu (indicating
counter urbanisation), of which 56% lived in rented apartment before developing
there own parcel. 58% lived as tenants in Ikorodu before building their own houses.
 Over 70% occupied uncompleted buildings , of which 48% have now completed
 On Density, we have an average of 14 persons per parcel and 0.02 per hectare.
ISUF ITALY 2015
Preferences and Processes
influencing Urban Growth
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27.  A major challenge in developing countries is access to Title, which is not
only cumbersome but almost out of reach. The Land Use Act stipulates
that only the governor of the state can sign a land title, this policy is a
stumbling block itself. The study shows 77% of house owners do not
have a certificate of ownership, while 65% do not have building
permits.
 There is a lack of awareness of the planning regulations as only 39% are
aware of the provisions of the regulation.
 There is lack of development control or enforcement as 65% of the
respondents have never been visited by inspectors during or after
construction. Out of these, only 9% were served contravention notices
ISUF ITALY 2015
How Effective are Planning Policies in
influencing Urban Growth
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28. Conclusion
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29.  This research paper has been able to examine the growth and morphology of a
peri-urban city spanning a period of forty years. The result of its fractal dimension
analysis indicates rapid urban change, which also correlates with the speed
agricultural land loss.
 The study quantified the loss of allocated agricultural land to urban growth in the
study area, which has been reduced by a significant level of 25%. A trend in which
if nothing is done, may threaten food security of the Lagos and its environ.
 The emergence of Ikorodu as a functional urban centre with employment
opportunity serves as a major underlying force attracting growth. The emerging
city is already a counter-magnet for the Lagos Metropolis.
 This growth has not been properly managed due to ineffective development
control and poor ineffective policies that allows sprawling instead of
containment.
ISUF ITALY 2015
Conclusion
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30.  Organic growth of cities should not be equated with malignant
growth. Cities like every organism will grow by itself, however, every
organism uses wisdom acquired over time for guided growth.
 Planners in African countries should learn from their counterparts
from Europe and other western countries, where there is a paradigm
shift from the traditional land use planning to Spatial Planning, which
investigating the interaction of different policies and practice across
regional space, and sets out a strategic framework to guide future
development and policy interventions, whether or not these relate to
formal land use planning control
 It is also suggested that the planners in developing countries should
use spatial technologies like remote sensing and GIS to enable them
monitor spatial growth and effectively track changes
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Recommendations and Policy
Implications
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31. Densification and Containment
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 Strategies like
densification and city-
containment must be
upheld against the
policies that encourage
sprawl.

32.  Thank You
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