#2021ReSAKSS Plenary Session V– Progress Toward Achieving CAADP Goals

1. Julie Collins
Senior Associate Scientist,AKADEMIYA2063

2. Tracking key CAADP indicators
and implementation processes
Wondwosen Tefera, Julie Collins, Tsitsi Makombe
AKADEMIYA2063

3. What is being tracked?
• ReSAKSS provides data and knowledge products to inform
CAADP implementation
• Tracks progress on CAADP Results Framework (2015–2025)
(RF) and other indicators
• Data available at
www.resakss.org
• Chapter 14 of the 2021
ATOR tracks 27 of 38
CAADP RF indicators

4. CAADP implementation progress
Country/Region JSR
assessment
conducted/
initiated
First
generation
NAIP
drafted,
reviewed,
and
validated
Malabo
compliant
NAIP
drafted,
reviewed,
and/or
validated
Inaugural BR process Second BR process Third BR
process
BR data
reviewed,
validated,
and
submitted to
REC
Countries
on track
BR data
reviewed,
validated,
and
submitted to
REC
Countries
on track
BR data
reviewed,
validated, and
submitted to
REC
AFRICA 26 36 42 47 20 49 4 51
Central Africa 1 6 5 9 1 8 8
Eastern Africa 7 9 12 10 6 13 1 12
Northern Africa 1 5 4 2 3 1 6
Southern Africa 8 5 5 10 6 10 10
Western Africa 10 15 15 14 5 15 2 15
• Over 40 countries have drafted or validated Malabo-compliant NAIPs
• Over 50 countries participated in the current Biennial Review (BR) cycle
Note: BR = Biennial Review; JSR = Joint Sector Review; NAIP = National Agriculture Investment Plan; REC = regional economic community

5. Progress in CAADP indicators: Government
agriculture expenditure share
• For Africa, the GAE share
declined from 2.5 percent
during 2014–2019 to 2.1
percent in 2020.
• 4 countries met the
CAADP/Malabo budget
share target in 2020
• The level of GAE grew in
the early CAADP periods
but declined during the
2014–2019 period and
further in 2020

6. Progress in CAADP indicators: Agriculture value added growth
• Unlike many other sectors,
agriculture showed positive
growth in 2020
• Agriculture grew at an
average annual rate of 3.0
percent in 2014–2019 for
Africa as a whole
• 2.4 percent from 2019-
2020
• Kenya, Rwanda and
Tanzania achieved the
CAADP 6 percent growth
target throughout the 2008–
2019 period

7. Progress in CAADP indicators: Undernourishment
• After declining in previous
periods, undernourishment
rose by 1.1 percent annually
in 2014–2019
• The prevalence stood at 19
percent in 2019
• It is projected to have risen
to 21 percent in 2020 – an
increase in 46.2 million
people (FAO)
Prevalence of undernourishment, annual average percentage change
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Africa
Central
Africa
Eastern
Africa
Northern
Africa
Southern
Africa
Western
Africa
Annual avg. change (2003–2008) Annual avg. change (2008–2014)
Annual avg. change (2014–2019)

8. Progress in CAADP indicators: Poverty
• Poverty rates declined
throughout the CAADP
period
• But absolute numbers of
poor have risen since the
2000s
• The numbers of poor are
expected to have risen
sharply in 2020
• An additional 23 million poor
in SSA (World Bank)
Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 (2011 PPP) per day (percent)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Africa
Central
Africa
Eastern
Africa
Northern
Africa
Southern
Africa
Western
Africa
Annual avg. level (2003–2008) Annual avg. level (2008–2014) Annual avg. level (2014–2019)

9. Conclusions
• Progress in CAADP implementation has continued, including
increased participation in the Biennial Review
• COVID-19 has severely affected progress toward CAADP-
Malabo goals
• But even before the pandemic, progress had slowed in many
areas
• E.g. rising prevalence of undernourishment
• Investments to increase resilience and productive capacity are
urgently needed