This document discusses the theory of change approach to project management. It explains that a theory of change identifies the intended outcome of a project, how the change process will occur, and what needs to happen for the outcome to be achieved. It provides examples of how to develop indicators, baselines and targets to measure progress towards the intended outcome. The document also discusses how to identify the activities and outputs needed to achieve changes in attitudes, behaviors and other interim outcomes that are necessary to achieve the overall intended outcome of the project.

1. www.iied.org
Understanding the Performance of Integrated Conservation and Development and Making it Fit for the Future
‘Theory of Change’
17th-18thSeptember 2013
Alastair Bradstock -IIED

2. Theory of Change
 Approaches to project management have encouraged managers to focus on inputs, activities and outputs, but the need to be clear about outcomeswas, and still is, much less apparent
 This is changing and a ‘theory of change’ is a tool than can help us make that transition
 Being busy does not always generateresults!

3. Theory of Change
A theory of change” is i)a coherent set of ideas that describewhat the change should be, ii)how a change process occurs, iii) what makes it happen, iv)what has to happen for the intended result/ outcome to be reached, v)who needs to be involved, vi)whose interests are at stake, and vii)what the result/ outcome of a change process should be

4. Theory of Change
 Donor community is increasingly interestedin it
 They see it as trying, amongst other things, to improve the rigourof the planning process to design better projects to generate results
 Some now ask for evidenceto demonstrate that a TOC is tried and tested to ensure that tax payers’ get value for money (VFM)

5. Theory of Change
OUTCOME (result) (indicators) Short-term (changes in)
•Attitudes
•Skills
•Knowledge
•Motivation
•Awareness
Indicative main ACTIVITIES
Investment
•Workshop
•Pubs
•Training
Intended OUTPUTS
Deliverables
•Trained staff
•Pubs diss
•Capacity dev
OUTCOME (result)
(indicators) Medium-term (changes in)
•Behaviour
•Practices
•Policies
•Procedures

6. Theory of Change
How do you develop a TOC?
 It’s a multi-stakeholderprocess
 Before you start, you need to understand how your country ‘ticks’ (political economy)
 You need to know how changehappens

7. Theory of Change
Understanding the context
 Key issues for you to consider regarding ICD:
 Who are the key national stakeholdersthat engage with ICD? Does it have a champion(s) –detractors?
 Are there others(UN bodies, multi-laterals, bi-laterals, civil society etc) doing ICD?
 What are the factors preventing–enablingICD?

8. Theory of Change
 It is key to assemble the right people to develop your TOC
 The right peopleare those who are involved in implementing IDC. You need them to take part in the planning process and to commit to the process

9. Theory of Change
Once you have assembled your TOC team, you need to outline your:
‘Intended Outcome’

10. Results and Resources Framework
Before we go further let’s remind ourselves of the difference between:
Outcomesand Outputs

11. Results and Resources FrameworkWhat is an intended outcome and why do we need one?
‘It tells you what success –achievement will look like’
Also ...
‘You can’t develop: indicators, baselines and targets without having one!’

12. Results and Resources Framework
Some examples of outcome statements:
 Nation’s children have better access to health care
 Job opportunities for youth improved
 Small-scale peri-urban farmers have better access to input markets
 Primary school learning outcomes for children are improved

13. Results and Resources Framework
Suggested outcome statement
‘ICD working effectively at Bwindi for people & wildlife’
Indicator: Increased share of gorilla permit revenues are available for the community
Indicator: monies reach a larger number of community members

14. Results and Resources Framework
Outcome indicators
They outline the key characteristicsof what your ‘intended outcome’ will look like

15. Results and Resources Framework
Some examples of outcome indicators:
OS: Nation’s children have better access to health care
OI: Per cent of rural children visit a health centre at least twice a year
OS: Job opportunities for youth improved
OI: Per cent of school leavers in full-time employment

16. Results and Resources Framework
(cont) examples of outcome indicators:
OS: Small-scale peri-urban farmers have better access to markets
OI: Number of farmers accessing fertilizer and seed markets
OS: Primary school learning outcomes for children are improved
OI: Per cent of Grade 6 students scoring 70% or more on maths test

17. Results and Resources Framework
Group Work on Indicators

18. Results and Resources FrameworkWhat is a baseline?
‘The baseline is the first measurementof an indicator and it tells us where we are now in relation to the outcome we are trying to achieve’

19. Results and Resources FrameworkWhat is a target?
‘A target is what the situation is expected to be at the end of a programme or activity’

20. Outcome
Indicator
Baseline
Targets

21. Results and Resources Framework
For each indicatoryou then need to outline what activitiesand outputsare required to bring about the change in attitudesand behaviourto achieve them.
Your theory of change

22. Theory of Change
OUTCOME (result) (indicators) Short-term (changes in)
•Attitudes
•Skills
•Knowledge
•Motivation
•Awareness
Indicative main ACTIVITIES
Investment
•Workshop
•Pubs
•Training
Intended OUTPUTS
Deliverables
•Trained staff
•Pubs diss
•Capacity dev
OUTCOME (result)
(indicators) Medium-term (changes in)
•Behaviour
•Practices
•Policies
•Procedures

23. Results and Resources Framework
‘1’‘2’
% of MOF budget IndicatorsPlanning guidelines
allocated to ICDincorporating ICD
Change in MOFChangesMin of planning accept that
understanding of thein attitudes &current guidelines not fit for
economic case for behaviourpurpose & need to be
ICDrevised to include ICD issues
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Research report onICD OutputsReport outlining how current
the economic benefits planning guidelines consider
of ICDICD issues

24. Results and Resources Framework
Output(s)for indicator #1
Activitiesfor indicator #1
Time completed: xx/yy/2013-4
Responsibility: A N Other