Scenario Planning

1. SCENARIO PLANNING
Thanakrit Lersmethasakul

2. What are Scenarios ?
Rich, data-driven, stories about tomorrow … - The Global Network.
What is Scenario Planning ?
A strategic planning method that some organizations use to make
flexible long-term plans. – Wikipedia.

3. The Purpose of Scenario Planning
- Ordering perceptions about how the future may play out.
- Considering a wider range of possibilities about where its
industry may head in the future => More innovative view
about future opportunities and risks.
- Determining what strategic decisions today offer the best
chance of success tomorrow.

4. The Purpose of Scenario Planning
- The point of scenario planning is not to predict the most
probable future.
- The objective is to develop and test strategic choices
under a variety of plausible futures.

5. Forecast Planning vs Scenario Planning
Source: The Global Business Network, 2008.

6. Characteristics of Scenario Planning
- Stories the Future
- Outside-In Approach
- Patterns of Change

7. Characteristics of Scenario Planning
- Stories the Future

8. Characteristics of Scenario Planning
- Outside-In Approach

9. Characteristics of Scenario Planning
- Patterns of Change

10. The Scenario Development Process
Source: scenarios2strategy.com

11. The Scenario Planning Process

12. The Role of Scenario Planning
Source: The Global Business Network, 2008.

13. The Applications of Scenario Planning
- Creating more sustainable long-term strategy.
- Making strategic decisions under conditions of
uncertainty.
- Continuously innovation in anticipation of the
market.
- Developing organizations that can think flexibly
and creatively.
- Aligning key stakeholders in support of a shared
vision.

14. THANK YOU
Because of multiple futures, we need to strengthens an
organization’s ability to recognize, adapt to, and take advantage of,
changes in the industry over time.