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The psychology of decision making
- 1. Audiences 1 The Psychology of Decision Making Lars Sudmann mail@lars-sudmann.com @LarsSudmann
- 3. Kahnemann, Daniel: e.g. Thinking Fast & Slow Plous, Scott: The Psychology of Decision Making Sudmann, Lars / Lenzen, Wolfram: Die Psychologie der Krise, Controller Magazin
- 5. Why do projects fail? Source: Hays, 27.12.12, in %, combination of “fully agree” and “mostly agree”
- 6. Understand key drivers of human decision making… …and its implication on how we approach decision making
- 7. Psychological Pitfalls Anchoring Over- confidence Loss aversion Confirmation bias & data availability Mental Accounting & Sunk Cost
- 8. Psychological Pitfalls Anchoring Over- confidence Loss aversion Confirmation bias & data availability Mental Accounting & Sunk Cost
- 9. Mental Accounting and Sunk Cost Theatre questions (1 and 7) The man with the horse (11)
- 10. What outcome can still change? Only take this into account!
- 11. Strategic = Be careful!
- 12. Psychological Pitfalls Anchoring Over- confidence Loss aversion Confirmation bias & data availability Mental Accounting & Sunk Cost
- 13. Data Availibility & Confirmation Bias Linda the bank teller (2); The cards E, 4, 7, K (10) ?
- 14. There are 12 cows, 4 sheep, and 8 pigs onboard a ship What is the captain’s age?
- 16. 16 Ask: I am looking at the total picture?
- 17. 17 Ask for the right data, not only the easy data
- 18. Get experts with experience on the subject in the room
- 19. Psychological Pitfalls Anchoring Over- confidence Loss aversion Confirmation bias & data availability Mental Accounting & Sunk Cost
- 20. Overconfidence Linda the bank teller (2) The estimate of driving qualities (9)?
- 21. Source: Asch, S.E. 1956 – A minority of one against a unanimous majority.
- 23. 23 Take the worst case – and add 50%
- 27. Psychological Pitfalls Anchoring Over- confidence Loss aversion Confirmation bias & data availability Mental Accounting & Sunk Cost
- 28. Loss Aversion Two questions with 1000 and 2000 Euro (3 and 8)?
- 29. Install Data Frames & Decision Trees
- 30. Psychological Pitfalls Anchoring Over- confidence Loss aversion Confirmation bias & data availability Mental Accounting & Sunk Cost
- 31. Anchoring Jim and Kathy (4 and 12) Bangladesh (5 and 6)?
- 32. Write down the last three digits of your phone number
- 33. When did Genghis Khan die? Year of death _____________
- 34. Left side Close your Eyes
- 36. Right side Close your Eyes
- 40. Be careful with first numbers & first impressions
- 41. Do scenarios, test different reference points
- 42. Psychological Pitfalls Anchoring Over- confidence Loss aversion Confirmation bias & data availability Mental Accounting & Sunk Cost
- 43. Exploration
- 44. Psychological Pitfalls Anchoring Over- confidence Loss aversion Confirmation bias & data availability Mental Accounting & Sunk Cost
- 45. 45 “Irrational decisions are almost always caused by fear. If you want to change the behavior, address the fear.” Seth Godin, author
- 46. What kills more people: a) coconuts falling from trees b) or sharks?
- 47. If you were given a choice, which of the following gambles would you prefer? a) €1,000,000 for sure b) 10 % chance of getting €2,500,000 89 % chance of getting €1,000,000 1 % chance of getting €0
- 48. #Tool Awareness – Emotions at work!
- 50. 50
- 51. #1 Strategic: careful #2 Look at the total picture #3 Right data, not easy data #4 Get experts in the room #5 Take worst case – add 50% #6 Peer-review decisions #7 Install Devil’s advocate positions #8 Decision frameworks #9 Rethink First Impressions #10 Use ranges & scenarios
- 52. “Both optimists and pessimists contribute to our society. The optimist invents the airplane and the pessimist, the parachute.” -G.B. Stern
- 53. Be a realist when making a decision and an optimist when implementing it – not the other way around.
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Journey… Basic Code… Taking it virtuall
- (FY vs 12 months, incr vs total, value creation)
- Eine Variante des "Availibility-Errors ist die, dass Menschen glauben, die Informationen, die sie an der Hand haben auch auf das Problem anwenden zu müssen" Beispiel: "There are 12 cows, 16 sheep and 24 goats on board a ship: How old is the captain? About 70% of the group of school pupils gave numerical answers to that problem! Connection with "Self-fulfilling prohecy"!
- Istockphoto
- He died in 1227… People normally always put him in the fiorst century
- Jim is envious, stubborn, impulsive, critical, diligent, and intelligent – in general, how emotional do you think Jim is ?
- Jim is envious, stubborn, impulsive, critical, diligent, and intelligent – in general, how emotional do you think Jim is ?
- Jim is envious, stubborn, impulsive, critical, diligent, and intelligent – in general, how emotional do you think Jim is ?