The document outlines techniques for avoiding disastrous decisions through science-based decision making. It discusses how the mind works, with System 1 representing automatic thinking and System 2 representing intentional thinking. Cognitive biases like optimism bias are explained, and a premortem technique is presented as a way to avoid failures once a decision has been made. A premortem involves imagining a project has already failed, anonymously listing possible reasons for failure, discussing the most likely reasons, and revising plans to prevent those failures. The presentation aims to help leaders invest in avoiding disasters through applying insights from decision science.

1. How Women Leaders Can Avoid
Disasters Through Science-Based
Decision-Making
Dr. Gleb Tsipursky
Co-Founder and President, Intentional Insights
Professor, The Ohio State University
NAWBO Columbus
May 4, 2017

2. Choose An Upcoming Major Decision

3. Presentation Overview
• Avoiding disastrous decisions
– Presentation
– Q&A
• Avoiding disasters after a decision was made
– Presentation
– Q&A
– Group discussion
• Final Q&A
• Tip sheets – free for audience members

4. Elephant and Rider

5. How Does Our Mind Work?
System 1
Elephant - Autopilot
• Subconscious
• Automatic
• Habits
• Fast
• Intuitive
• Emotional
System 2
Rider - Intentional
• Conscious
• Mindful
• Attention
• Slow
• Reasoning
• Logical

6. Retrain the Mind

7. What Do You See?

8. Pessimism and Optimism Bias

9. Knowledge is Power:
Beware Cognitive Biases

10. Empathy Gap

11. Halo and Horns Effects

12. Web App: Making the Right Call on
Significant Decisions
• Free online tool to “put numbers on it”
http://bit.ly/2mrMZi6
• Example: Hiring decision

13. Q&A on Decision-Making Science

14. Preventing Disasters Once
Decision Made

15. Premortem vs. Postmortem

16. Premortem: Steps 1 and 2
Step 1
Gather stakeholders in meeting
• Ensure a mix of people:
– expertise on topic
– authority to make decisions
Step 2
Explain the exercise
• Describe all steps

17. Premortem: Step 3
Ask all to imagine a future
where the project definitely
failed.
• Ask each participant to
write possible reasons for
failure ANONYMOUSLY
– Encourage reasons that
might be seen as rude or
unpopular
• Facilitator gathers written
comments and reads them
aloud

18. Premortem: Step 4
Discuss all reasons that were brought up
• Pay particular attention to those that seem
rude, unpopular, and/or dangerous to careers
• Estimate the probability of each reason for
failure ANONYMOUSLY
– Option 1: percentage probabilities
• Ex: 80% likely
– Option 2: use categories
• highly likely
• somewhat likely
• unlikely
• very unlikely

19. Premortem: Step 5 and 6
Step 5
Decide on several failures that are most relevant
• Brainstorm ways of preventing these failures from
occurring.
Step 6
Project leader revises project plan based on the
feedback, and, if needed, repeats the exercise.

20. Premortem Q&A

21. Premortem: Group Activity
Step 1: Gather stakeholders in meeting
• Ensure a mix of people with expertise on topic and with authority to make
decisions
Step 2: Explain the exercise to everyone - describe all steps.
Step 3: Ask all to imagine that they are in a future where the project
definitely failed
• Ask each participant to write possible reasons for failure ANONYMOUSLY
– Encourage reasons that might be seen as rude or unpopular
• Facilitator gathers written comments and reads aloud.
Step 4: Discuss all reasons that were brought up
• Pay particular attention to those that seem rude, unpopular, and/or dangerous
to careers
• Estimate the probability of each reason for failure ANONYMOUSLY
– Option 1: percentage probabilities (Ex: 80% likely)
– Option 2: use categories (highly likely, somewhat likely, unlikely, very unlikely)
Step 5: Decide on several failures that are most relevant
• Brainstorm ways of preventing these failures from occurring.
Step 6: Project leader revises project plan based on the feedback, and, if
needed, repeats the exercise.

22. Invest in Avoiding Disasters

23. Thank You!
Dr. Gleb Tsipursky
gleb@intentionalinsights.org
Website glebtsipursky.com
Twitter twitter.com/Gleb_Tsipursky
LinkedIn linkedin.com/in/dr-gleb-tsipursky-89ab4b23/
Email to get two free tip sheets:
• Avoiding Disastrous Decisions
• Avoiding Disaster Once You Make a Decision
PowerPoint of this presentation
slideshare.net/intentionalinsights