Olivier Ecker BOOK LAUNCH Agriculture for Improved Nutrition: Seizing the Momentum FEB 28, 2019 - 12:15 PM TO 01:45 PM EST

1. Agriculture for Improved Nutrition: Seizing the Momentum
Reshaping Agriculture to Reduce Obesity
(Chapter 8)
Olivier Ecker
Development Strategy and Governance Division
International Food Policy Research Institute
IFPRI, Washington, DC, USA | February 28, 2019

2. Global Burden of the Growing Obesity Epidemic
• More than 2.1 billion people (30% of the world’s population) suffer from overweight or obesity.
Almost two-thirds of the world’s obese population lives in low- and middle-income countries
(LMICs).
• The prevalence of obesity will continue to increase at current or higher rates in all LMIC
regions, having critical implications for healthcare budgets and economic development.
• Obesity increases the risk of common non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as
cardiovascular diseases, type 2 diabetes, and hypertension.
• The obesity epidemic and the associated NCD burden are primarily caused by unbalanced,
calorie-rich diets and the (over)consumption of unhealthy foods and beverages.
• Between 1981-83 and 2011-13, the per capita availability of calories and animal protein rapidly
increased globally (by 13% and 33%), and esp. in Asia (by 21% and 133%).

3. Agriculture’s Contribution to Rising Obesity in LMICs
Agriculture, particularly the agricultural and technological revolutions of the late 20th century, has
likely contributed to the growing obesity epidemic in LMICs in at least four ways:
1. Improved agricultural technologies and practices have substantially increased staple crop
yields (esp. for cereals) and farm household incomes. → Green Revolution
2. Increases in agricultural productivity and outputs have reduced and stabilized real food prices
(for staples and animal products) and hence lowered the costs of (calorie and protein-rich)
diets for consumers.
3. Agricultural and food policies (input subsidies, output price supports, import/export taxes)
in both high-income countries (HICs) and LMICs have led to distortions to agricultural
incentives, reflected in food supply and pricing.
4. Agricultural mechanization and increased affordability of motorized transport have reduced
the physical workload of farmers as well as the time required for farming and agricultural
marketing activities.

4. Trends in Global Food Prices and Macronutrient Availability
Cereal yield increases (per ha) in LMICs, 1960–2000: 208% for rice, 157% for maize, and 109% for wheat, thanks to the Green Revolution supported by
government interventions and agricultural investments.*
Source: Based on data from Delgado et al. (2001), FAO (2017), and World Bank (2017); * Pingali (2012).
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
GDP per capita
(const. 2010 US$)
Food price index (FPI)
(2004-06 = 100, defl.)
GDP - World
GDP - LMICs
Global FPI
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
2,300
2,350
2,400
2,450
2,500
2,550
2,600
2,650
2,700
2,750
2,800
2,850
2,900
Calorie availability per
capita (kcal/d)
Animal protein availability
per capita (g/d)
Calories - World
Animal protein - World
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Animal product prices (real) - World
(const. 1990 US$/kg)
Beef
Milk
Pork
Poultry
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Cereal prices (real) - World
(const. 1990 US$/kg)
Rice
Wheat
Maize

5. Distortions to Agricultural Incentives
Nominal rate of assistance (NRA = percentage by which government policies have raised/lowered gross returns to farmers above/below what they
would have been without the government’s interventions) for the top 8 agricultural products with the highest gross subsidy equivalent globally
-50 0 50 100 150
Milk
Beef
Pork
Poultry
Sugar
Maize
Rice
Wheat
Africa (LMICs)
-50 0 50 100 150
Milk
Beef
Pork
Poultry
Sugar
Maize
Rice
Wheat
1980-89 1990-99 2000-09
LMICs - World
-51
-50 0 50 100 150
Milk
Beef
Pork
Poultry
Sugar
Maize
Rice
Wheat
Asia (LMICs)
-53
-50 0 50 100 150
Milk
Beef
Pork
Poultry
Sugar
Maize
Rice
Wheat
Latin America (LMICs)
-50 0 50 100 150
Milk
Beef
Pork
Poultry
Sugar
Maize
Rice
Wheat
HICs - World
313
368
241
155
207
Source: Based on Anderson (2009) and data from Anderson & Nelgen (2013) and Anderson & Valenzuela (2008).

6. The Role of Agriculture in Tackling the Obesity Epidemic
• Reforming agricultural policies in both HICs and LMICs to reduce/eliminate distortions to
agricultural incentives that lower the costs of a calorie-dense and animal protein-rich diet
(relative to a more diversified and healthier diet) can be an important contribution.
• But agricultural subsidies often also have a social protection aim, since farmers make up a large
share of the poor population. Thus, any policy shift to eliminate distortions should be
accompanied by equal measures to ensure that poor farm households are not left behind.
• Reshaping agricultural policies for improved nutrition is hampered by critical knowledge and
data gaps, esp. in Africa and the Middle East:
▪ Little rigorous evidence on nutritional impacts of specific agricultural policies. → Priority for food policy research
▪ Lack of data, e.g., on public expenditures for specific agricultural investments, and on vegetable and fruit prices
and production incentive distortions at national and global levels.
• Agriculture should do its share in reducing obesity, as should other sectors of the food system
(food processing, marketing, retail) where the potential benefits are at least equally large.