Presentation by IFPRI's Claudia Ringler

1. Modeling the Water-Food-Energy Nexus in the Arab
World : The Case of Egypt
RIVER BASIN MODELING
CLAUDIA RINGLER
APRIL 18, 2016
CONRAD - CAIRO, EGYPT
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2. Frequency of interactions across the WEF Nexus

3. Coordination of WEF Nexus in Egypt

4. River Basin Modeling and the WEF Nexus
Source: Yang (2016).

5. River Basin Network:
1) Nodes: Water use sites
(Irrigation/ Domestic &
Industrial/ Hydropower);
Water Treatment sites; GW
2) Links: Canals, Flows to
the sea, inflows (rainfall-
runoff)
Source: Yang (2016).

6. Simulation or Optimization Modeling
S: Minimize difference supply and demands across
space and time
O: Maximize benefits to various water users and
uses
River Basin Modeling and the WEF Nexus

7. 1) Add new hydropower (impact on other water use
sectors/ countries), potential for energy trading?
2) Impact of climate change on water, food and
energy security
3) Change water allocation rules (to ensure optimal
allocation; preference to irrigation or HP, etc.)
WEF Scenarios

8. Precipitation change (%)
-20 -10 0 10 20
energy use per unit of
(ground)water; (baseline =
5.96 kTOE per BCM)
Tempera-
ture
increase (oC)
4.5 8.08 7.91 7.77 7.70 7.66
3.0 7.45 7.20 7.03 6.93 6.82
1.5 7.04 6.72 6.98 6.42 6.31
energy use per unit of crop
(baseline = 7.49 kTOE/Mton)
4.5 10.18 10.04 9.93 9.85 9.78
3.0 9.07 8.84 8.71 8.62 8.55
1.5 8.45 8.20 8.25 7.96 7.89
water use per unit of crop
(baseline = 1.57 BCM/Mton)
4.5 1.81 1.82 1.82 1.84 1.84
3.0 1.68 1.69 1.70 1.70 1.71
1.5 1.60 1.62 1.62 1.62 1.63
WEF Scenarios: Selected results for Pakistan
Source: Yang (2016).
Historical allocation

9. Precipitation change (%)
-20 -10 0 10 20
energy use per unit of
(ground)water; (baseline =
5.96 kTOE per BCM)
Tempera-
ture
increase (oC)
4.5 6.83 6.61 6.51 6.29 6.26
3.0 6.26 5.99 5.85 5.68 5.54
1.5 5.71 5.63 5.39 5.25 5.06
energy use per unit of crop
(baseline = 7.49 kTOE/Mton)
4.5 8.26 8.07 7.94 7.79 7.69
3.0 7.48 7.23 7.10 6.98 6.90
1.5 6.94 6.74 6.60 6.50 6.43
water use per unit of crop
(baseline = 1.57 BCM/Mton)
4.5 1.82 1.85 1.85 1.86 1.86
3.0 1.65 1.68 1.69 1.70 1.73
1.5 1.58 1.60 1.60 1.62 1.62
WEF Scenarios: Selected results for Pakistan
Source: Yang (2016).
New u/s dams and basin optimization

10. Source: Yang (2016).

11. River basin models can model several WEF relationships
in river basins (HP production, GW pumping, changes in
food production)
Such models can be one important means to assess
impacts of changes in food policies on water and energy;
or impacts of changes in water policies on food and
energy
Need to be complemented by overall economy analyses
to better understand effects on labor and welfare
Conclusions