Shenggen Fan Transforming Agriculture and Food systems for Higher Income and Better Nutrition: Global and Emerging Perspective, IFPRI-JICA Workshop June 28, 2018

1. Shenggen Fan, June 2018
Shenggen Fan | Director General
International Food Policy Research Institute
Tokyo, Japan | June 28, 2018
MEGA-TRENDS
IMPACTING
FOOD SECURITY
AND NUTRITION:
A Global Experience
Transforming Agriculture and Food systems
for Higher Income and Better Nutrition:
Global and Emerging Perspective

2. Shenggen Fan, June 2018
Outline
Mega-trends also impact food systems
We must work together to ensure food security and
nutrition in this context
The global food system faces radical changes related to
anti-globalization sentiments

3. Shenggen Fan, June 2018
Threats to
investments
Trade
protectionism
Knowledge & data
flow restrictions
Tightening
borders
Stalled farm
policy reforms
Weak global
governance
Anti-globalization Sentiments
Global food system faces radical changes

4. Shenggen Fan, June 2018
Mega-trends also impact food systems
Rapid population growth,
urbanization, and youth
Technological
innovations
Conflict, hunger, and
famine
Closing in on planetary
boundaries
Food safety concerns &
anti-microbial resistance

5. Shenggen Fan, June 2018
1. Conflict is a main driver of hunger…
In 2017, conflict and insecurity was the
main driver of food insecurity in 18
countries, affecting 74 million people
Source: FSIN 2018
Global Report on Food Crises: Main drivers of hunger in 2017
Source: FSIN 2018
• Conflict and disasters can aggravate pre-
existing food insecurity and malnutrition
• Refugees and displaced people often
face unhealthy, unsanitary surroundings
• Health services and social networks,
which are key to nutrition, are disrupted

6. Shenggen Fan, June 2018
1. …and risk of famine and hunger have increased
Source: FAO 2017
Famine risk: largest food crises in 70 years
Source: FAO 2017
Global hunger is on the rise
(Prevalence of undernourishment)

7. Shenggen Fan, June 2018
Projected urban share of global population
Urban
68%
20502015
Urban
54%
Source: Ruel et al. 2017
• Urbanization and rise in incomes drive increased rates in consumption of highly
processed foods, overweight and obesity, and NCD risk factors
• Burdens of malnutrition shifting from rural areas to urban areas
Source: OECD 2010
0
20
40
60
80
2009 2020 2030
North America Europe
Central and South America Asia Pacific
Share of global middle class, 2009-2030 (%)
Source: UN 2018
2. Rapid urbanization & middle class growth
continues…

8. Shenggen Fan, June 2018
• Increase access to credit and resources
o Program for development of rural employment
(PADER) in Cameroon facilitates in-kind and financial
loans for youth farmer groups
o Warehouse receipt system for Tanzanian rural youth
provides access to credit and advance payment for
produce
• Make agriculture attractive to youth through
technology and innovation
o FarmDrive in Kenya improves farm performance data
and record keeping via mobile phones to present
credit-worthiness
• Engage youth with climate-smart agriculture
training
40% of world’s youth are either
unemployed or working but poor
Source: World Bank 2016
Average youth unemployment rate
10
11
12
13
14
15
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
World
SSA
Source: ILO 2016
Source: Devex 2017, IFAD 2012
2. …as high youth unemployment persists…

9. Shenggen Fan, June 2018
2. ...AND changing diets are increasing pressure
on food systems
Changes in composition of diets (per capita)
Source: Wiebe and Rosegrant 2015
Note: WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean;
MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa

10. Shenggen Fan, June 2018
Prevalence of anemia among women aged 15-49, 2016
Source: GNR 2017, NCD-RisC 2016
Multiple burdens of malnutrition must be addressed
Source: GNR 2017
Children under 5 affected by malnutrition, 2000-2017 (millions)
Source: UNICEF/WHO/WB 2018
Prevalence of adult obesity, 2014 (%)
By 2025, 18% of men and 21% of
women will be obese globally, if
post-2000 trends continue

11. Shenggen Fan, June 2018
3. Agriculture is pushing planetary boundaries
Source: Campbell et al. 2017

12. Shenggen Fan, June 2018
Climate mitigation requires dramatic transformation
Source: Bajželj et al. 2014
Without drastic changes to agri-food
systems, we will not be able to meet
the 2°C target
• Under BAU, agriculture will emit 20.2
GtCO2e/yr, almost reaching 2°C target
emission allowance for all sectors in 2050
(~21 GtCO2eyr-1)
• Food system transformation will be key for
sufficient mitigation, e.g. yield gap closure,
food waste reduction, and healthy diets
(YG3 scenario)CT1 = Current yield trend
CT2 = Current yield trend & 50% food waste reduction
CT3 = Current yield trend & 50% food waste reduction &
Healthy diets
YG1 = Yield gap closure (sustainable intensification)
YG2 = Yield gap closure & 50% food waste reduction
YG3 = Yield gap closure & 50% food waste reduction &
Healthy diets
BAU
2° target
by 2050
2009 emissions
from agriculture

13. Shenggen Fan, June 2018
• Unsafe foods pose huge economic
costs
o USA: Foodborne illnesses cost $14 - 152
billion annually
o China: $970 million in losses in 2014 from
tainted meat
• Nutrition, food safety, and health
must be priorities
Source: Adapted from WHO 2015
• To ensure accessibility
o Productive, cross-sectoral social protection in the short run
o Equity growth in the long run
4. Food safety concerns for nutrition, health
and livelihoods are rising…

14. Shenggen Fan, June 2018
Projected extra healthcare expenditures
Sources: Word Bank 2017
• AMR will impact human health –
increased morbidity and mortality
• Livestock production will also be
impacted
• Lead to lower productivity, lower
supply of livestock production,
increased prices for major protein
sources
• Decrease world trade
• Increase extreme poverty
4. …AND anti-microbial resistance is becoming
prominent

15. Shenggen Fan, June 2018
5. Technologies are emerging in and beyond
agriculture
Source: Thottathil, Jayasekaran, and Othman 2016
Automation and mechanization
• Increasing use of machines and
electronics in agriculture
• Implications on youth unemployment –
need to move jobs to post-harvest service
sector
Hydroponic, vertical or indoor farming
• Estimated US$750 million in North
American private investment in vertical
farming (through Q3 2017)
• Economically viable and sustainable
Biotechnology
• Gene sequencing
‒ Dramatic reduction in cost to ~US $1,245/genome
‒ Sequenced crop genomes could improve
agriculture in challenging climates
Source: Indoor Ag-Con 2016

16. Shenggen Fan, June 2018
We must work together to ensure food
security and nutrition

17. Shenggen Fan, June 2018
• Encourage an open, efficient, and fair trading system
• Support rural development to break the vicious cycle of
conflict, food insecurity, and migration
• Invest more in research and innovation for food systems
• Enhance evidence-based policy making
• Leverage new opportunities in emerging technologies and
knowledge-sharing
Addressing radical changes is central
for progress in food security and nutrition

18. Shenggen Fan, June 2018
Cooperation and mutual learning will be key
Upcoming global learning event bringing
together decision makers, practitioners,
researchers, and other stakeholders