Roman Romashkin GLOBAL FOOD POLICY REPORT Virtual Event--Discussion on the Implications of the 2020 Global Food Policy Report for Eurasia Co-Organized by the Eurasian Center for Food Security at Lomonosov Moscow State University, Westminster International University in Tashkent, the World Bank Group, and IFPRI MAY 27, 2020 - 02:30 PM TO 04:00 PM MSK

1. Major Trends and Prospects in
Agri-Food Trade between
Russia, Central Asia and South
Caucasus Countries
Roman Romashkin
Deputy Director,
Eurasian Center for Food Security at Lomonosov Moscow State University

2. Contents
 Dynamics of Agri-Food Trade
 Russia’s Role in Agri-Food Trade
 Trade structures
 Trade Complementarity
 Major Traded Commodities
 Intra-Industry Trade
 Key Factors for Agri-Food Systems and Trade

3. Dynamics of Agri-Food Trade between Russia and CA&SC
Exports to Russia, mln $ Imports from Russia, mln $ Trade balance with Russia, mln $
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2013 2015 2018 2019
Armenia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan
Uzbekistan Tajikistan
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
2100
2013 2015 2018 2019
Armenia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan
Uzbekistan Tajikistan
-1800
-1500
-1200
-900
-600
-300
0
300
2013 2015 2018 2019
Armenia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan
Uzbekistan Tajikistan
773
553 448 568
806 918
1,133
2,303 2,272
1,887 1,798
2,363
2,599
3,066
-1,530 -1,719
-1,440
-1,231
-1,558 -1,681
-1,934
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
mln$
CA&SC exports to Russia CA&SC imports from Russia Trade balance
• Positive trade developments between Russia and
CA&SC
• Exports grow faster than imports
• Highest export growth rates in Kyrgyzstan and
Armenia
• CA countries are net importers in agri-food trade
with Russia
• Kazakhstan is the main trading partner for Russia
(60% of Russia exports to CA&SC and 40% of Russia
Imports from CA&SC)

4. Russia’s Role in Agri-Food Trade with CA&SC Countries
Share of Russia in the geographic
export structure of CA&SC countries
Share of Russia in the geographic
import structure of CA&SC countries
65
57
42
48 50 49 51
18
11 13 13 12 12 13
10 12
5
27 30
23
30
4 4 5 6
10 11
16 17
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Armenia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Uzbekistan
29 29
33 34 36 35
32
39 37 39 42 43 42
48
29 27
32 33 30
35 33
20 21
25
32
28 30
18
24
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Armenia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Uzbekistan
Share of CA&SC countries in Russia’s agri-food export Share of CA&SC countries in Russia’s agri-food import
14.5
13.2 12.6 12.2
11.4
10.0
12.1
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
1.8 1.5 1.7
2.6 2.6
3.0
3.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
• CA&SC countries are heavily dependent both on Russian market and Russian agri-food supply
• Facilitating access to the Russian market was one of the main reasons to participate in Eurasian
integration project

5. Agri-Food Trade Complementarity The trade complementarity (TC) index can provide useful
information on prospects for intraregional trade in that it
shows how well the structures of a country’s imports and
exports match. It also has the attraction that its values for
countries considering the formation of a regional trade
agreement can be compared with others that have formed or
tried to form similar arrangements. The TC between countries
k and j is defined as: TCij = 100(1 – sum(|mik – xij| / 2))
Where xij is the share of good i in global exports of country j
and mik is the share of good i in all imports of country k. The
index is zero when no goods are exported by one country or
imported by the other and 100 when the export and import
shares exactly match.
https://wits.worldbank.org/wits/wits/witshelp/Content/Utilities/e1.trade_i
ndicators.htm
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Agri-food trade complementarity indices between Russia and
Armenia (2001-2019, %)
Complementarity between Russia exports and Armenia imports
Complementarity between Armenia exports and Russia imports
0
10
20
30
40
50
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Agri-food trade complementarity indices between Russia and
Kazakhstan (2001-2019, %)
Complementarity between Russia exports and Kazakhstan imports
Complementarity between Kazakhstan exports and Russia imports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Agri-food trade complementarity indices between Russia and
Kyrgyzstan (2001-2019, %)
Complementarity between Russia exports and Kyrgyzstan imports
Complementarity between Kyrgyzstan exports and Russia imports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Agri-food trade complementarity indices between Russia and
Tajikistan (2014-2019, %)
Complementarity between Russia's exports and Tajikistan's imports
Complementarity between Tajikistan's exports and Russia's imports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2017 2018 2019
Agri-food trade complementarity indices between Russia and
Uzbekistan (2017-2019, %)
Complementarity between Russia exports and Uzbekistan imports
Complementarity between Uzbekistan exports and Russia imports
• Negative balances in agri-food trade with Russia are likely to remain in the future, as CA countries’ export profiles are not in the line with
Russia’s import profile compared with trade complementarity between Russian exports and CA countries’ imports
• Complementarities between EEU members’ exports (Armenia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan) and Russian agri-food imports tend to increase
slightly, that indicates improvements in trade environment. However, 66 intra-regional trade obstacles still exist in the EEU (EEC, 2020).
Equivalent trade costs resulting from NTBs range from 7.6% to 39.2% of agricultural trade
values and from 8.1% to 39.7% of food trade values between EEU countries (Vinokurov et al., 2015)

6. Major Traded Commodities for CA&SC
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Sugar confectionery
Oil seeds
Fish
Preparations of vegetables, fruit, nuts
Chocolate
Cereals
Dairy products
Vegetables
Fruits
Alcohol beverages
Top-10 commodities exported to Russia, mln
$
0 100 200 300 400 500
Tobacco
Water
Dairy products
Cereals
Preparations of vegetables, fruit, nuts
Edible preparations
Chocolate
Sugars and sugar confectionery
Preparations of cereals, flour
Fats and oils
Top-10 commodities imported from Russia, mln
$
Share of major commodities in total agri-food country
specific exports
Armenia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Uzbekistan
Alcohol beverages 60%
Fruits 8% 12% 34% 93% 58%
Vegetables 9% 11% 20% 29%
Dairy products 13% 37%
Cereals 13%
Sugar confectionery 5%
Oil seeds 5%
Preparations of cereals 5%
Total 77% 64% 91% 93% 87%
Share of major commodities in total agri-food country
specific imports
Armenia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Uzbekistan
Fats and oils 14% 8% 13% 32% 36%
Preparations of cereals,
flour 8% 11% 17% 13% 7%
Sugars and sugar
confectionery 7% 4% 10% 24%
Chocolate 10% 7% 14% 11% 5%
Edible preparations 6% 10% 8%
Preparations of
vegetables, fruit, nuts 7% 4% 2%
Cereals 22% 4%
Dairy products 6%
Water 7% 5%
Animal fodder 6%
Total 60% 60% 66% 71% 81%
• Low commodity
diversification of exports
• Fruits and vegetables are
mainly exported
• More diversified
structure
of imports
• Processed products are
mainly imported
• Tajikistan and
Uzbekistan are
vulnerable to Russian
trade policy measures

7. Agri-Food Intra-Industry Trade between Russia and CA&SC Countries
Grubel-Lloyd (GL) index
GLi =0, if a country only exports or
imports good i (situation of inter-industry
trade)
GLi =1, if a country imports exactly as
much
of good i as it exports
Xi – export of good i
Mi – import of good i
ii
ii
i
MX
MX
GL
+
−
−= 1
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Russia-Armenia Russia-Kazakhstan Russia-Kyrgyzstan
Russia-Tajikisyan Russia-Uzbekistan
• Inter-industry trade prevails
• Positive dynamics in intra-industry trade
between Russia and Kazakhstan
• Low level of intra-industry trade due to the
lack of diversification in agri-food sector in
CA&SC
2-digit tariff lines Armenia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Uzbekistan
02 Meat 0,58
03 Fish 0,76
04 Dairy products 0,84 0,71
05Products of animal origin 0,63
06 Live trees and other plants 0,65
08 Fruit and nuts 0,51 0,56
09 Coffee, tea 0,86 0,52 0,74
10 Cereals 0,86
11 Products of the milling industry 0,86
12 Oilseeds 0,70 0,61 0,42 0,54
16 Preparations of meat, of fish 0,68
18 Cocoa and cocoa preparations 0,64
20 Preparations of vegetables, fruit,
nuts 0,52 0,75
22 Beverages 0,98
24 Tobacco 0,91
GLi, 2019

8. Key Factors for Agri-Food Systems
and Trade Developments in Eurasia
• Russian food embargo on import from Western countries (substitution
and shift towards trade with CA)
• Slowdown in Eurasian economies due to drop in oil prices and
depreciation of national currencies
• Reducing real incomes of population, unemployment and poverty
growth
• Declining remittances from workers in Russia (25% of GDP in
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan)
Rates of substitution of selected EU products by CA&SC ones in Russian market
CA&SC
Armenia
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Uzbekistan
Cheese 1,9% 0,1% 1,0% 0,7% 0,0% 0,0%
Butter 14,4% 0,1% 6,1% 8,2% 0,0% 0,0%
Apples and pears 2,7% 0,2% 1,7% 0,3% 0,0% 0,4%
Tomatoes 33,9% 11,5% 9,4% 0,4% 0,0% 12,7%
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2019 2020 2021
GDP, percent change
World Russia Armenia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Tajikistan
Calculations based on trade volumes, ITC data
IMF data
Poverty indicators (by national standards)
Poverty rate,
%
Number of poor
(thousand)
Armenia 23,5 694,8
Kazakhstan 2,5 450,9
Kyrgyzstan 22,4 1414,7
Russia 12,9 18637,7
Uzbekistan 14,1 4300,0
Tajikistan 27,4 2316,4 WB data
Exacerbated by COVID-19 outbreak, stagnation of the Russian economy
and decrease in consumer demand threaten for sustainable and inclusive
development of national food systems of CA&SC countries
To strengthen food security and ensure sustainability in agri-food systems,
priority policy measures should be focused on:
• formation adequate social distance and hygienic regulations for
production, transport, logistics and marketing segments of food systems
• increasing extent of localization in food value chains
• support of agricultural producers
• social safety nets for vulnerable population groups

9. Thank you and stay healthy!