Olivier Durand - 2018 Global Food Policy Report - Tashkent, Uzbekistan

1. IFPRI/WIUT International Conference on Agricultural
Transformation, Food Security and Nutrition in Central
Asia
Reflections on Food Security in Uzbekistan
Olivier Durand, Senior Agriculture Economist, World Bank

2. Observations and Questions
 Resource allocation efficiency?
 Who’s contributing to food security?
 Farm efficiency?
 Subsidies vs. Incentives?
 New approach to market economy => food security?

3. Agricultural Outputs vs. Farm Categories
 Household farms
 Private farms
 Ag enterprises
Percentage of Land by Category
13% 85% 2%
63%
35%
Percentage of
agriculture
output
2%
 Household plots occupy 13% of farmland and produce over 60% of total ag value
added.
Value added per hectare of
household plot:
 12 times that of private farms
 5 times that of ag enterprises
Subsidies

4. Cotton/Wheat vs. other crops
Cotton/Wheat
=
more than 2/3 of
crop area
And 70-75%
of water,
60% of
fertilizer

5. Vegetable and Livestock Production by
Farm Category

6. Farm Efficiency
19.8
Wheat for Market Cotton State Procurement
12.3
996.3
Second crop after wheat
2,366.4
Profits
or losses
Land allocation, ha
Horticulture
0
Input subsidies
Crops
rotatio
n
Fertilizers diversion?
Wheat State Procurement

7. Farm Efficiency
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
CottonYields(kg/ha)
Evolution of Cotton Yields in Uzbekistan
compared to other cotton producing countries
Uzbekistan
Australia
USA
India
China
10.7
29.2
51
Uzbekistan Pakistan Australia
Nitrogen fertilizer use efficiency
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Wheat yield, kg/ha

8. Structure of agricultural trade in Uzbekistan
Source: FAO, 2017
Total value = 2.7 billion USD Total value = 1.7 billion USD
Exports, 2015 Imports, 2015
Animals
and meat
Dairy
Vegetables
Fruit and
nuts
Cereals and
flourFats and
oils
Processed
food and
beverages
Fibers
Tobacco
Other Animals
and meat Dairy
Vegetables
Fruit
and
nuts
Cereals and
flour
Fats and
oils
Processed
food and
beverages
Fibers
Tobacco
Other

9. Some Suggestions to Improve Efficiency
Focus Areas Directions for Change
Policy Incentives  Eliminate inefficient and distortive agricultural state support measures
(i.e. price controls for agricultural products, input subsidies, ad hoc
policy interventions)
+ compliance with the WTO rules.
 Target public expenditures on the provision of public goods in
agriculture (food safety, connectivity, research and extension,
agriculture education, environmental protection, infrastructure, etc.).
Food Security  Redefine food security beyond self-sufficiency.
 Use Trade and Risk Management Instruments.
 Develop safety net programs to focus on food accessibility and
nutrition (targeted food aid).

10. Some Suggestions to Improve Efficiency
Focus Areas Directions for Change
Land Use  Provide full land use flexibility
 Delink land allocation from production targets
 Provide access to land to all categories of farmers
Input & Output
Markets
 Ensure competitive market for input supply to achieve diversity of
supply and low prices for end users.
 De-link input supply from state credit mechanism to allow for greater
farmer flexibility/choice and competitive input markets.
 Increase access to finance for wider range of inputs (seeds, machinery
services, fertilizers, agro-chemicals, technical assistance).
 Allow output prices to be determined by market mechanisms.
Technology and
Innovations
 Invest in public goods (agro-meteorological information, agricultural
research and extension) to enable innovations, productivity growth,
conservation of natural resources and adaptation to climate change.