The document discusses the need for a sustainable global food system by 2030 to meet the UN Sustainable Development Goal of ending hunger and malnutrition. It outlines a vision for increasing food production by 35% while reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture by 25%. However, current trends are projected to fall short, with only a 13% increase in food and a 0.5% increase in undernourishment by 2030. The global food system needs reforms across producers, processors, and consumers to shift from exacerbating problems to delivering improved nutrition, health, and sustainability outcomes for all.

1. The Future of a
Sustainable Global Food
System
Juergen Voegele
Sr. Director, Agriculture Global
Practice
The World Bank
Photo credit: National Geographic, March 2016.

2. 2
• Able to feed every person, every day, in every country with a
safe, nutritious and affordable diet (+35% more food - FAO)
• Jobs and income gains in the food system to meet poverty
reduction targets (+4.5% per capita income growth - DEC)
Improved health outcomes
End of hunger & reduced child
stunting (to 5%)
Reduced food related NCDs
No net increase in obesity
Improved sustainability
Reduced GHG emissions
Improved land & water mgt
Protected local communities &
biodiversity
2030 Vision for the Global Food System
SDG Goal 2: End Hunger, achieve food security, and improved nutrition, and
promote sustainable agriculture

3. Projected Trends Will Not Get Us There
3
Increase in Food Production (%) by 2030 Income Increase to 2030 (% per year)
Health Outcomes (bn people) by 2030 GHG Emissions from Agriculture (% change)
by 2030
+20%*
+35%
Trend Vision
+13%*
-25%
Trend Vision
2.5%*
4.5%*
Trend Vision
• 2.5.% is 10 yr trend growth (2003-2012) of agricultural labor productivity
in low income countries projected forward to 2030; 4.5% is estimated
agricultural incomes gains of the poor needed to end poverty by 2030.
• Trend assumes a 2oC warmer world by 2030 and an associated
10% reduction in food crop yields
• Trend includes diets/consumption shifts with increased incomes
• Trend assumes 8% undernourishment rate and 6.8 bn people in
developing countries by 2030, Vision is 3%.
• Trend: WRI estimates
0.5
0.2
1.4
0.7
Trend Vision
Undernourished
Obese

4. 4
Global Food System: the need to focus on delivering improved nutrition and health
• The triple burden of malnutrition:
• 795 million people afflicted by hunger
• Over 2 billion deficient in key vitamins and
minerals
• Over 2 billion overweight or obese (2/3 in
developing countries)
• The overall burden of food borne diseases is
comparable to that of major infectious diseases; the
burden is highest for young children and in low-
income countries (WHO, 2015)
• The Global Food System needs to
shift from being part of the problem
to being part of the solution
“Better Food: Shaping the
Global Food System to
Deliver Improved
Nutrition and Health”
prepared for the 2016
Spring Meetings of the
World Bank and IMF

5. 5
The challenges of ending poverty, undernourishment, stunting, and
obesity vary across low- middle- and high-income countries
47.2
12.5
27.0
12.0
37.6
24.3
3.34.6
7.5
18.8
Low Income Middle Income High Income
Poverty headcount at $1.90 a day (% of total population)
Undernourishment (% of total population)
Stunting of children < 5 (%)
Obesity (% of total population)

6. Producers
Reduce hunger
Reduce hidden hunger
Reduce excessive calorie intake
Improve food safety
Increase food availability: crop and livestock productivity, resilience, reduced taxation of agriculture
Reduce food loss through improved planning and storage
Low income Middle income High income
Processors/post-harvest
Reduce hunger
Reduce hidden hunger
Reduce excessive calorie intake
Improve food safety
Consumers
Reduce hunger
Reduce hidden hunger
Reduce excessive calorie intake
Improve food safety
Improve diet quality: align producer/price policies to demand, diversification, agricultural extension,
R&D for nutrient-rich crops/bio-fortification, increase income earning opportunities for women
Address the misuse of pesticides, control antibiotics use in livestock/aquaculture, safe irrigation
Promote food fortification, reduce subsidy biases for ingredients in processed foods
Support food labelling, restrict food/beverage advertising for children, limit specific dietary factors
Enhance food safety regulations, control aflatoxin, support private operator food safety management
Ensure policy consistency to reduce food price volatility, support public campaigns to reduce food
waste, support home grown school feeding programs
Expand nutrition education and home grown school feeding, promote healthy dietary guidelines
Support consumer engagement in regulatory development processes, healthy dietary guidelines,
reduce subsidy biases on foods high in salt, oil and sugar and consider taxing options