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Booz & Company                             Dubai, March 14, 2011   Conference Presentation




Digitizing MENA Economies
Winning Broadband Strategies



By Hadi Raad
Principal - Communication, Media, and Technology


This document is confidential and is intended solely for
the use and information of the client to whom it is addressed.
A number of trends are gaining pace globally, driving a shift in
telecom market traction
                                                                   Key Communication Trends

         Increased Device Usability                                                                 Virtualization of Services
   Greater availability of more lifestyle-                                                    Cloud computing
    adapted devices
                                                                                               Over-the-top media growing in importance
   Proliferation of touch screens
                                                                                                (e.g. TV, movies, books)
   Extended battery life
   …

                 Increased Mobility                                                                  Applications Ecosystem

  Extended independence of consumers,                                                         Increasing number of customizable and
   (e.g. remote work, affordability of travel,)                                                 compatible applications
  Dependency on supporting technology                                                         More complementary products
   away from home and enterprise                                                               …
  …

     Technology Savvy Consumers                                                                   Bandwidth Demand & Supply

   Natural demand developing from next                                                        Operators are continually investing in more
    generation of users (“Generation C”)                                                        capacity and upgrading networks
   …                                                                                           – VDSL / Fiber deployments
                                                                                                – LTE deployments
                                                                                               …
Booz & Company             Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt
March 2011
                                                                                                                                              1
A new perspective of convergence across industries is breaking
traditional silos allowing consumers to benefit from digitization
                                                                   Digitization of Economies

                                             Society
                                                                                                               Digitization will have broad
                                                                                                               implications on societies and economies
                                 Government              Health
                                                                                                                    Making the US power grid 5% more effective
                                        Digital Presence                                                             through smart grids will save the CO2
                   Transport                                              Education                                  equivalent of 53m cars1)
                                            Broadband
                                                                                                                    Utilities loose 25-50% of treated water to
                                          Infrastructure                                                             leaks that could be remedied with
                                                                                                                     appropriate smart infrastructure2)
                                                                                Media &                             Congested roads in US cost 4.2bn work
                 Energy                                                                                              hours and 10.6bn l petrol that could be
                                                                                 Enter.
                                                                                                                     saved with smart traffic mgmt
                                                                                                                    4.6bn mobile phones deliver location
                               Smart           Cloud              Digital                                            information today
                              Systems                             Goods
                                                                                                                    Humans generate 100m tweets per day,
                     Retail                                             Industrial
                                                                                                                     creating extensive data on preferences3)
                                                                                                                    Digital universe “data exhaust” reaching ~35
                                                         Home                                                        trillion GB 4) (created and processed in the
                                   Financial          Convenience
                                   Services                                                                          year)
                                                                                                                    79% of workers depend on internet and
                                                                                                                     telecoms today


    Sources: Booz & Company analysis
    1)       IBM 2010 estimate             2) Lux Research      3) Twitter Status 10/2010   4) IDC/EMC estimates

Booz & Company                    Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt
March 2011                        Archive number
                                                                                                                                                                    2
The challenges are rising to efficiently design and deploy the
components required for Digital Economies
                                                                                       Overall Needs                                               NON-EXHAUSTIVE

                                     Smart Systems                                             Digital Presence                       Digital Goods
                            Library management systems                                 Virtual classrooms                  Collaborative content software
  Education                 Student information systems                                E-learning and distance learning    E-learning repositories
                            Hospital info. and workflow systems                        Electronic Health Ordering
 Health                     Electronic Health Record                                   Pharmacy portals                    Chronic disease devices

                            E-government management systems                            E-government portals                Digital signatures
 Government

                            Routing and scheduling systems                             Electricity usage and distance
 Utilities
                            Smart grid systems                                          control portals

                            Automatic stock deployment systems                         e-stores                            Digital books
 Retail
                                                                                        m-commerce                          E-games, m-games, etc.

 Commercial                 Payment processing network
 Banking                    Authentication technologies                                Mobile consumer banking             Digital wallets

                            Traffic flow simulators
                                                                                        E-kiosks
 Mass Transport             Routing and scheduling systems                                                                  Digital tickets
                                                                                        Road charging
                            Fleet vehicle tracking
                            Ad performance optimization                                Digital voting systems              Digital content (IPTV, VoD, etc.)
 Media                      Audience measurement                                                                            Digital advertising

                           Smart systems adding intelligence                           Digital presence substitution of     Electronically accessible digital
                           to technology infrastructure and                            physical presence through online     goods de-materializing traditional
                           back-office processes                                       and mobile communication             physical goods

Source: Booz & Company analysis

Booz & Company                Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt
March 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  3
E-Health services, for example, create new markets by empowering
patients and enhancing treatment opportunities for providers
                                                           E-Health - Solutions and Customers                                                                    EXAMPLES
                                                                                                                                                                 Smart Systems
                                                                            Health education portals offer                                                      Digital Presence
                                                                             effective solutions to create                                                       Digital Goods
                                                                             awareness
                                                                            E-Health programs cater to needs of
                                                                             increasing healthcare consumption
                                                                                                                               • Online / mobile health
              Electronic health records                                                                                         information enable quick and
               increase transparency, enable                                                                                     flexible access
               fraud detection and save costs                                            Health                                • Mobile monitoring devices
                                                                                        Authority                                offer new treatment solutions
                                                                                                                                 for an ageing society


                                                                                                                     Patient
                                                                 Health
                                                                                                                    Patient
                                                               Insurance

                                                                                         Operator

                  Support systems                                                                                               New revenue sources can be
                   (scheduling,…) enable cost-                                                                                    generated from disease
                   effective services                                                                                             management
                                                                                                      Health care
                  Clinical decision support                                                        Profes-                      Tele-diagnostic and tele-
                                                                           Hospital/
                   systems & e-prescription                                                                                       consultation present cost-
                                                                           Pharmacy                 sional
                   increase patient safety                                                                                        effective solutions
Source: EU commission, US NIH, Booz & Company analysis

Booz & Company                 Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt
March 2011
As adoption curves continue to accelerate, digital economies
applications could penetrate mass markets in few years
                                                                                                                                            INDICATIVE
Years
                                                        Adoption Curves are Accelerating
                                                                                                           Up and Coming Start-Ups in the
35                                                                                                               Digitization Realm

                                                                                                               Layar - Augmented Reality on
30                                                                                                              smartphone
                                                             Years to Reach 25%
                                                               Penetration of                                  2m users, 1000 active layers, 4000
                                                                Population1                                     active developers
25
                                                                                                                    Fitbit - Digital Self Healthcare
                                                                                                                    Wearable sensor, collecting caloric
20                                                                                                                   intake, number of steps, blood sugar
                                                                                                                     level, blood pressure, sleep patterns,

15                                                                                                           Green Goose - Digital Life Sensors
                                                                                                             Sensors to measure energy
                                                                                                              consumption, automobile usage,
10                                                                                                            water and heat usage


 5                                                                                                              TaKaDu - Smart Infrastructure
                                                                                                                Locates and predicts water-network
                                                                                                                 events
  0
Telephone Radio            TV            PC         Mobile Internet Smart                Social Digital
                                                                    Phone                Media Economies
 Source: FCC, census.gov, Booz & Company Analysis
                                                                                                   ?
 1) US Population

Booz & Company                  Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt
March 2011
Digitization solutions are already driving transformation in
traditional sectors achieving significant economic benefits
                                                                                                                                                           EXAMPLES
                                                             Examples of Digitization Applications


             Sector              Digitization Solutions                                             Example                               Expected Benefits


                                                                                    Xcel Energy installed 20,000 smart
                           Smart metering systems
                                                                                     meters, connected them via fiber-optic       Save 10% on consumer bills
             Utilities     Smart distribution systems
                                                                                     network, launched website to track power     Reduce peak demand by 15%
                                                                                     use and offered dynamic pricing plans

                                                                                    Singapore integrated Intelligent
                       Real-time direct traffic flow
                                                                                     Transportation System to automatically
                       Automatic systems for reducing                                                                            Reduce car fatalities by over 15%
       Transportation                                                                charge drivers for using congested roads,
                        congestion                                                                                                Reduce congestion time by over 20%
                                                                                     adjust traffic lights, measure average
                       Intelligent public transportation
                                                                                     speeds and provide parking-guidance
                           Intelligent real estate solutions to                                                                  Effectively manage larger
                                                                  Songdo Smart City in South Korea
                            manage building energy                                                                                 populations
                                                                   developed applications to remotely control
          Real Estate       efficiency, security, utility supply                                                                  Reduce congestion times
                                                                   appliances, receive remote healthcare and
                           Remote appliance and security                                                                         Save on energy needs
                                                                   digitally interact with gov’t
                            control                                                                                               Provide remote social services

                           Remote systems for diagnostics                                                                        Ability to electronically deal with 750
                                                                                    Federal Government E-Health Program
                            of chronic diseases                                                                                    million prescriptions per year
                 Health                                                              developed electronic prescription system
                           Electronic health records                                                                             Improved supply of pharmaceutical
                                                                                     on a national scale
                           Intelligent emergency response                                                                         products


Booz & Company            Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt
March 2011
                                                                                                                                                                         6
Digitization will swiftly drive the need for high-bandwidth next
generation broadband such as FTTx and LTE
                                                                 Emerging Applications Requirements




                                                                               Tele Medicine          Tele Learning
          Interactivity
                Level                                          Multi-location
                                                               Collaboration
                                                                                                                         Virtual Sports
                                                                                        Utility Computing Grids

                                   Social Networking
                                                                                                     Virtual Laboratories
                                 Email                   Rich Media
                                                                                                                              HD/ Next Generation TV
                              Browsing                    Video Conferencing

                             64 - 256 Kbps                512 Kbps - 2 Mbps                                            20 Mbps - 1 Gbps       Effective Bandwidth


          Access Type          Narrowband              1st Generation Broadband                                   Next Generation Broadband

  Typical Technology            Dialup, 2G                         DSL, 3G                                               FTTx, LTE1)


1)      Long Term Evolution Networks
Source: Booz & Company analysis


Booz & Company                 Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt
March 2011
                                                                                                                                                                    7
In particular, Video could grow to represent more than half of the
total internet traffic
                                                                                          Consumer Global Internet Traffic
           YouTube Total Uploaded Video                                                                (‘000 TB x Month)
(Hours per minute) (2005-2009)                                                                                                              32.128
                                                                35
      35
      30
                                                      24
      25                                   20
      20                           16                                                                                              25.168
      15                10
                                                                                                                    +40%                    17.751   Video
      10     6    8                                                                                                                         (55%)    (PC, TV, ambient)
         5
                                                                                                                                                      CAGR = 70%
         0                                       Time                                                                  18.600      13.430
         H1 07 H2 07 H1 08 H2 08 H2 09 H1 10 H2 10                                                                                 (53%)



     US Average Download Minutes of Video                                                                                  9.242
                                                                                                          12.726           (50%)
 800          per User per Month       732
                  (2005-2009)                                                                               5.283
                                                                                                                                             9.629
                                                                                               8.755        (42%)                                    File Sharing
 600                                                                                                                                7.722
                                                                                                                                             (30%)
                                                                                               2.804                                (31%)             CAGR = 24%
                                                                                       6.021                               6.248
 400                                                 318        +876%                  1.251                5.022          (34%)
                                        208                                                                 (39%)
                                                                                               4.083                                                 Internet
 200                         142                                                       3.345
                                                                                                                                    4.016    4.748
                                                                                                                                                     (Web, Mail,
             75   95                                                                                        2.421          3.110             (15%)
                                                                                                                                    (16%)
                                                                                       1.425   1.868        (19%)          (17%)                     Gaming, Voice)
     0                                                                                                                                                CAGR = 27%
             2005      2006        2007         2008         2009                      2008    2009        2010        2011        2012     2013
 Source: Comscore, Cisco, Booz & Company analysis

Booz & Company                Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt
March 2011
Digitization breadth and scale could span geography, connecting
people, institutions, and devices …
                                                                               Breadth and Scale of Digital Economy Services
                   Scale of
                  coverage


                                                                                                                                          City level
                     City/ State




                                                                                                                                                                    Digital
                                                                                                               Digital Health                                       Government
                                                                                                                                                  City-wide
                                                                                                                                                  connected
                                                                                                                      E-Education
                   Neighbourhood District




                                                                                                                                                  transportation
                                                                                                                                Work


                                                                                                      Local connected                                    industry
                                                                                                      transportation
                                                        Home                                                   Leisure
                                                        level                                                                                          Industries
                                                                                                                                    Finance/ E-
                                                                                                                                    commerce
                                                                                                            Neighbourhoods
                     Home




                                                                                                                 level
                                                    Smart Home                                                                                                                         Breadth of
                                                                                                                                                                                   integrated services
                                                  Connecting people              Connecting institutions             Connecting devices           Connecting people to devices


Enablers                                             Smart ICT Solutions                                       ICT Infrastructure                         Digital Communities

                                             Deployment of smart systems that
                                                                                                  Build up of pervasive and intelligent         Sophisticated and innovative use of ICT
Description                                   allow users to access resources and
                                                                                                   ICT infrastructure                             by integrated communities
                                              capabilities more efficiently



3/16/2011Booz &
Booz & Company                                     Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt
Company
March 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                     9
DATE
… entailing the need for high speed broadband even in less
dense/rural areas
                                            Importance of High Speed Broadband in Rural Areas
NON-EXHAUSTIVE
                                                        Description                                Example Initiatives

                                    Telemedicine offers the opportunity           A tele-pathology system developed in Japan allows
           Improved                  to bridge the gap between                      pathologists using high-definition video and remote-
           Healthcare                healthcare services in rural and               controlled microscopes to examine tissue samples
                                     urban areas                                    from patients living in rural areas


                                                                                   South Korea developed the Education Broadcast
                                    E-learning and online video tutorials
             Better                                                                 Service (EBS) to help children in rural areas better
                                     can be a powerful tool to improve
           Education                                                                prepare for a national aptitude test through access to
                                     educational services in rural areas
                                                                                    free video tutorials


                                                                                   The US government is active in promoting tele-
                                    High speed broadband enables tele-
         Employment                                                                 working for the federal government in order to
                                     working in rural areas and creates
         Opportunities                                                              promote employment in rural areas as well as reduce
                                     rural entrepreneurs
                                                                                    traffic congestion


                                                                                   The Rural eGov project of the European Union aims
                                    Broadband allows residents and
  Access to Government                                                              to study the needs of SMEs in rural areas for
                                     businesses in rural areas to have
        Services                                                                    governmental and public services and offer policy
                                     access to e-government services
                                                                                    recommendations to EU governments


Booz & Company           Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt
March 2011
                                                                                                                                             10
However, a digital divide still exists even in developed markets

                                                                 Broadband Household Penetration
                                                                           Urban vs. Rural - (in %) - 2009

           Urban
           Rural                                                                                                                               39



                                                                                                                                                          +15
       28                                                                                       28
                                                                                                                 26
                 24       +4                                                                                                                             24
                                                       23        23
                               21
                                                                                                           +14             +10
                                               +7                                 16                                  16         16
                                      14                                                 14   +2      14
                                                                                                                                          +7
                                                                                                                                      9




        France                  Italy                       UK                      Spain       Germany          Sweden          Greece             US


Source: iDATE Consulting & Research, 2009

Booz & Company                  Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt
March 2011
Digitization in MENA is expected to accelerate, driven by
increasing maturity along four enablers
                                                          Digitization Momentum in the MENA Region
    1 Improved Governments’                                                                           2 Advent of Next Generation
        Readiness                                                                                       Broadband
     Government in several MENA countries                                                             MENA operators building next
      have reformed and are ready to                                                                    generation broadband infrastructure
      implement long-term planning of                                                                   and have reduced connectivity costs
      national policies                                                                                 by 40% since 2008

     Governments now pushing for                                                                      Operators designing supply side
      implementation of ICT solution and e-                                                             initiatives and are developing tailored
      Programs across ministries/ agencies                                                              sectoral digitization solutions
                                                                                         MENA
                                                                                       Digitization
                                                                                         Trends
    3 Growing Consumer Demand                                                                         4 Increased Adoption of ICT by
     MENA consumers accustomed to                                                                      Enterprises
      online and mobile services with an                                                               Adoption and spend on ICT services
      expected yearly increase in apps                                                                  by Enterprises in the MENA on the rise -
      downloads of 44% till 2014                                                                        growing at twice the average of global
                                                                                                        peers
     Penetration rate of fast fixed and mobile
      broadband connectivity to rise to                                                                MENA Enterprises integrating
      24% (households) and 34% (users) by                                                               advanced ICT solutions without the
      2014 respectively                                                                                 hurdle of legacy systems
Source: Booz & Company analysis

Booz & Company                Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt
March 2011
                                                                                                                                              12
Regional governments have significantly prioritized ICT on their
policy agenda and national development plans
                                                                                                                                              EXAMPLES
                                                          Digitization Momentum in MENA – Governments


    National Development                                                                                                           ICT Demand
                                                      ICT Vision and Strategy                   ICT Investment
            Plans                                                                                                                   Stimulation
                                                                                             GCC ICT Investments2
              National Development                                 National ICT Strategy
                                                                                                     (2010-2012)
              Plans                                                of Jordan 2012
                                                                   e-Maroc 2010               KSA                       90
              Abu Dhabi Economic                                                              UAE                  46
              Vision 2030                                          ICT2015                  Kuwait         17
                                                                                             Qatar         15
              Qatar National Vision                                E-Government             Oman       8         Total
              2030                                                 Strategy                                     $180 Bn
                                                                                           Bahrain    5

              Kuwait 5- Year
              Development Plan                          MENA region recorded               Government authorities are        ICT authorities in region
                                                        fastest increases in               releasing significant             are actively influencing
              Bahrain Economic                          Networked Readiness                funds to develop and              the increase in ICT
              Vision 2030                               Index1, reflecting efficiency      integrate ICT within              demand through various
                                                        of ICT strategies                  government entities               initiatives



1)      Global Information Technology Report 2009-2010
2)      GCC ICT Infrastructure Report by Kuwait Financial Centre (Markaz)
Source: Booz & Company analysis

3/16/2011Booz &
Booz & Company                    Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt
Company
March 2011
                                                                                                                                                         13
DATE
Regional telecom operators are offering Next Generation
Broadband, at declining prices
                      Residential ADSL Availability                                                 Broadband Prices1) as % of GDP per Capita (PPP)
                            (Selected MENA Countries)                                                                   (Selected MENA Countries)
                        4 Mbps         8 Mbps          10 Mbps          16 Mbps          24 Mbps                                                              15.5%
                                                                                                    Egypt
                                                                                                                                             9.0%
   Bahrain
                                                                                                                                                    10.3%
   Egypt                                                                                           Jordan                           7.0%

   Jordan                                                                                                                                   8.5%
                                                                                                   Bahrain
                                                                                                                            4.6%
   Kuwait
                                                                                                                                     7.3%
                                                                                                     KSA                     5.0%
   Lebanon
                                                                                                                             4.7%
   Morocco                                                                                          Oman
                                                                                                                          4.0%
   Oman
                                                                                                                            4.7%
                                                                                                   Kuwait       1.6%
   Qatar
                                                                                                                   2.1%
   KSA                                                                                              Qatar
                                                                                                                1.5%
                                                                                                                                                            2008
   UAE                                                                                                           1.8%
                                                                                                     UAE        1.6%
                                                                                                                                                            2010



              Telecom operators and ISPs have rolled out an                                              Broadband prices in the MENA region have
               infrastructure capable of providing high connection                                         significantly dropped over the last two years enabling
               speeds to users                                                                             people to select faster connections
1)      Annual Broadband prices ae for 1Mbps connection
Source: Arab Advisors, Booz & Company analysis

3/16/2011Booz &
Booz & Company                  Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt
Company
March 2011
                                                                                                                                                                    14
DATE
MENA consumers are accelerating their adoption of broadband
and smart phones …
                                                                   MENA Customer Technology Adoption
                    Fixed Broadband                                                 Mobile Broadband                             Smart Phones Adoption in
                     Users in MENA                                                     Users MENA                                           MEA
                  (2009-2012) (Millions)                                           (2009-2014) (Millions)                          (In ‘000s) (2009-2014)


                           +31%                                                                                107                                                  26,141
                                         74      77                                                                                         +36%           21,455
                                 67                                                        +73%
                                                                                                                                                  17,127
                         54                                                                             66
                                                                                                                                         12,875
                   37
                                                                                                39                               8,845
          20                                                                              22                             5,661
                                                                             7       12


        2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014                                     2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014                  2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014



     Broadband Households Penetration is                                                                                 Smartphone sales CAGR over 2010-2014
      over 60% in the UAE, 30% in KSA, and                             User penetration should leap from 2%               range between 14% (KSA) and 28% (Egypt)
      should reach 24% in the region by                                 to 34% from 2009 to 2014                          Smartphone users are 3x more likely to use
      2014                                                                                                                 broadband

1)      Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, KSA, Syria, Tunisia, UAE, Yement
Source: Informa, WBIS 2009 Ovum, Gartner, Booz & Company analysis

3/16/2011Booz &
Booz & Company                   Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt
Company
March 2011
                                                                                                                                                                             15
DATE
… and are increasingly more sophisticated and adept in digital
media
                                                               MENA Customer Sophistication Indicators

              Mobile Apps Downloads                                                           Most Common                                            Ratio of Facebook
                 (‘000)(2008-2014)                                                          Internet activities                                        Users in MENA
                                                                                     (% of MENA respondents) (2009)                                (% of Population) (2009)

                                                     1,234.3                                         1%   Listening to radio                  In May 2010
                                                                                                                                          Facebook had around
                                                                                                                                                                   0.3%   Iraq
                             +44%            1,036.7                                             3%       VOIP Calls                      15 Mn active users in
                                                                                                                                            the MENA region     2.7%      Egypt
                                                                                                          Downloading music,
                                     824.8                                                       3%
                                                                                                          videos…
                                                                                                                                                               4.9%       KSA
                             619.6                                                              4%        Watching videos / TV

                     425.3                                                                  6%            Online games                                    8.6%            Jordan

             249.9                                                                         8%             Emails
                                                                                                                                                          8.6%            Tunisia
     136.5
                                                                                     14%                  Social networking
                                                                                                                                                     16.6%                Lebanon
                                                                                    15%                   Chatting
     2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
                                                                                43%                       Getting information                 21.9%                       UAE




   Number of apps downloads will increase at                                MENA internet consumers are active users of                   Facebook penetration of internet
    a yearly rate of 44% – 15% of which are                                   new online applications: games, video                          users is amongst the highest in the
    paid                                                                      streaming, VoIP, etc.                                          world


Source: Ovum Mobile Apps Forecast 2010, Middle East & North Africa Twitter Demographics & User Habits Survey August 2009, Arab Media Outlook 2009-2013, SpotOnPR

3/16/2011Booz &
Booz & Company                   Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt
Company
March 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                    16
DATE
To capture digitization opportunity, Telcos need a clear positioning
on infrastructure, applications, and monetization business models
                                                         How to Win the Broadband Game?
                                                                          Strategic Imperatives



            1      A Right to Play                                        2         A Right to Compete   3     A Right to Win


                   Broadband                                                         Broadband
                                                                                                             Business Models
                 Infrastructure                                                      Ecosystem


        Demand-driven FTTx rollout                                     Positioning in the broadband     Infrastructure
        Harmonized investment in                                        ecosystem                         deployment business
         Wireless broadband (WiFi,                                      Horizontal Services               models
         Wimax, LTE)                                                    Vertical applications            Innovation stimulation
        Government investment support                                   partnerships (e-education, m-     business models
         / Demand stimulation ?                                          health, etc)                     Monetization business
                                                                        Content partnerships              models




Booz & Company             Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt
March 2011
                                                                                                                                    17
Operators mass broadband technology strategy will depend on a
number of market specific considerations            CONCEPTUAL

                                           Integrated Infrastructure Perspective: Key Trade-Offs


                                                                          Urban         Suburban   Rural
                                                                                                           1   Right cut-off-point?
     Technology     Commercial Availability                                             Coverage               Which technology?
                                                                100%                                            (VDSL vs. FTTH)


                                                      Density
                            Ongoing
       FTTx
                                                                0%


                            ~2013
        LTE          ~2016 full deployment
                                                                                    2
                                                     Fixed-Wireless-Mobile                                 3
                                                       complementarity?
                            ongoing                                                                                Rural copper
        3G                                                                                                         substitution?


        2G                   ongoing
                  possibly discontinued in 2016
                                                                                                           4
                                                                                                                2G/3G switch-off?

       Copper               ongoing                                                                        5
                                                                  ADSL2+                                       Case for extension of
                                                                                                                ADSL2+ capability?



Booz & Company             Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt
March 2011
                                                                                                                                       18
A clear positioning is needed in the broadband ecosystem to
capture the market opportunity
                                                         Broadband Ecosystem & The Battle for future Profits
                                                                Content Providers



                                                                                                                       Ho




                                                                                                                                                                                                        Service Providers
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                                       uc   atio                                                             m L
                                                                                                           ,                ,
                                                 n                                                                   merce                                     Co-opetition battle
                                                          Over the Top Services                               e- comcial                                        for future profit
                                   e-health                                                                        so erce
                                                                                                                  comm                                                pools
                                              Pads & Tablets     Home Automation
                                             TVs & STBs      Devices     Gaming
                                              Cell & Smart phones      Computers




                                                                                                                                                                                Systems Integrators /
                                                    Systems Integration
                                          IT Services




                                                                                                                                                        Operators
                                                                                                                                                         Network




                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Device Players
                                             Managed Services
                                                             Network Operations
                                                                                           Connectivity Services




                                                                                                                                                                                Software
                                  Fiber           Switches                                       Routers         Servers
                                                                   Infrastructure
                                  Copper m-to-m Devices Satellite                                   Wireless    Mobile


Booz & Company                       Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt
March 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             19
OTT players are capturing value in the new ecosystem by securing
the right positioning and crafting attractive value flow models
                                                                      Categories of Application Leaders


                            Philosophy                          Own natural
                                                                                       Distribute                     Bridge to              User generated
                                                                 points of
          Value capture                                                              unique content                 physical world              content
                                                               concentration
             model

  A
                                                                                                                                                 Commerce
                 Transaction-based

                                                                                              Music Store


  B
                                                                                                                                             Customer
                                                                                                   Super Pass
                 Subscription-based                                                                                                          Analytics




  C                                                                                                 Super Pass

                                                                                                                  No examples found
                 Advertising-based
                                                                                                    Music Store




                                                           Monopoly on particular    Creating own format            Leverage efficiencies
                                                                                                                                            Develop a framework
                                                           aspects of consumer’s      and developing an              of online world for
                                                                                                                                               to house user
                                                               interests and          ecosystem around                 productivity in
                                                                                                                                             generated content
                                                           concentrated branding          the format                   physical world
                                                                                                                                                 Limited models yet

Booz & Company              Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt
March 2011
OTTv players, for example, are capturing growth in video through
creative business models and efficient partnering
                    Examples of OTT (over the top) Offers                                                               US Video Content Sites
                                                                                                                                     - April 2010 -
                         Google TV                              .com                    Apple TV
                                                                                                                        Unique Viewers                Videos / Viewers
                                                                                                                           - in mn. -                   - per month -
                                                                                                       Google sites/
                                                                                                                                 136                                96
    Partners                                                                                              YouTube

                                                                                                                Hulu        39                                     25


                      Aggregate all                                                                   Microsoft sites       40                                16
                                                       Provide                      Provide high
                      video content
                                                     Professional                   quality video     Viacom Digital       39                          10
                          across
     Mission                                          content of                     content via
                        platforms
                                                     stations via                    iTune store       Yahoo! Sites             50                     8
                      (Broadcast TV,
                                                     the internet                   (sell through)
                      YouTube, Web)
                                                                                                               Vevo         44                         8
              Set-top box                        Streamed content Set-top box linked
              connected to                       online on PCs    to iTunes store                    Fox Interactive        44                         7
  Description Internet
                                                 Limited                        Audio and video      CBS Interactive        39                         8
                     (or in Sony TVs)            advertising                    content
                                                                                                       Turner Digital      33                             9
    Business         Targeted                    Targeted                       Hardware sale +
     Model           advertising                 advertising                    share of content
                                                                                                          Facebook          41                        6

      Status         To be launched              ~50m viewers                   Launched 2005
                                                                                                                    TV Format Invaders           TV Station own Sites
Note:   Excludes video server networks
Source: ComScore, Insight Express, TopTenReviews.com, Booz & Company analysis


Booz & Company                 Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt
March 2011
Players are threatening telcos’ positioning either through owning
unique interfaces or providing core telecom services
                                           Illustrative Scenario of an Applications Player’s                                 EXAMPLE
                                          Strategy to Compete on Telecom Operator’s Turf

                                    Non-Telecom Services                                          Core telecom Services

                   Yahoo!, with its applications and content rich portal
  Attract with      attracts customers from Operator’s portal and has
  Appealing         cannibalized Operators’ email service                     Free Internet
                                                                                               Skype offers free pc-pc internet calling
     Portal                                                                      calling
                   Yahoo! offers free toolbar and suggests making
                    Yahoo! as customers’ homepage
                   Yahoo! further solidifies its relationship with                            Skype offers a simple, convenient, and
                    consumers by locking them into subscription based                           cost-effective way for people
   Enter into                                                                 Cheap VoIP
                    services - such as personal, classifieds etc                                anywhere in the world to communicate
   Contract                                                                     Calls
                   Yahoo! partners with other service providers, such as                       from their computers over the Internet
                    Expedia, to offer travel services                                           to landlines and mobile phones
                   Yahoo! partners with billing agency (Paypal etc) to
        1           process customer transactions                                              Skype offers mobile apps that enables
 Start Billing                                                                Convergence
                   These payments could be per transaction basis (flight                       VoIP applications over mobile
                                                                               with Mobile
                    booking) or on monthly basis                                                broadband

                   Yahoo! enters into partnership with customer care
        4
Offer Customer      firms to manage post-sale customer service on
                    transactions such as flight bookings, a call center to
    Service
                    provide better customer service. This takes away
                    Telecom Operator’s last contact point with customers




 Booz & Company      Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt
 March 2011
To stay relevant, Telecom operators need to keep control of core
components: Digital ID across devices and location awareness
          Network providers had limited reaction …                                              …despite having strengths in key areas

                                         Discussion
                                                                                                          Single Login
  Telecom operators reaction to date has generally been limited

  Operators, in general, have so far reacted to such developments
   through actions such as:                                                                 Digital ID   With commerce             -
   – Trying to sustain business by banning emerging products
      (e.g. T-Mobile blocks Skype usage on mobile phones)
   – Profiting from increasing innovation of other players by
      forming alliances to (e.g. AT&T - iPhone exclusivity)                                              Across devices
   – Offering additional products and services by moving into
      quadruple play (cable television, broadband internet access and
      fixed line and mobile telephony) with premium content
                                                                                                         Social context            -
                                                                                            Social ID
                                                                                                            Location
                                                                                                           awareness

                                                                                                                          Area of strength for
Source:, Booz & Company analysis                                                                                          network provider

Booz & Company                     Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt
March 2011
Time is not to Telcos’ advantage - OTT players have already started
staking claim on core components, such as digital and social IDs
                                                    Strategic Thrusts To Gain Control of Sources of Value


                                                            Digital ID                                             Social ID

                                                                                                                               Location
                          Single Login               With commerce                   Across devices    Social context
                                                                                                                              awareness
                                                                                                                                             Facebook has leveraged
                                                                                                       Dominant social          Introduced   its dominance in social
                             Facebook                    ‘Facebook                  ‘Facebook App’                                           networking to establish a
                                                                                                         networking             ‘Facebook
                              Connect                      Credits’                  across devices                                          single login and include
                                                                                                          platform                Places’
                                                                                                                                             location awareness


                                                                                                                           Google maps;      Google enjoys device
                                                                                                                                             ubiquity via Android but
                                                                                                       Google social      Android location
                                                       Google Pay                                                                            has had limited success
                                                                                                         search             awareness        in the social space
                                                                                                                            capabilities

                                                                                                                                             Apple has the strongest
                                                                                                       Ping - a social                       walled garden and has
                                                                                                      network for music                      recently made a foray in
                                                                                                                                             social networking



Note:   See appendix for more detail on player strategies                                                                                    Relative position of
Source: Booz & Company analysis
                                                                                                                                             strength

Booz & Company                    Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt
March 2011
Facebook has leveraged its dominance in social networking to
establish a single login and include location based offerings
                                       Digital ID                                             Social ID

                              Facebook Connect allows users to log                      Dominant Social Network - More than
                               into external sites while adding basic                     500 million active users with 50% of
                               FB features                                                users active daily

                              Users carry their FB social graph and                     Users spend over 700 billion minutes per
                               FB identity around the internet                            month on Facebook

                                                                                         Facebook Places is a location based
                              Facebook Credits are virtual                               service that
                               currency that users use to buy virtual
                                                                                          – allows users to update their location
                               goods in games and applications on the                       and connect with contacts in that area
                               Facebook Platform.
                                                                                          – “Places Deals", allows users to find
                                                                                            local deals
                              Facebook receives 30% of all revenues

                              Facebook Applications - Over 200
                                                                                         Social Search tie up with Microsoft’s
                               million active mobile users
                                                                                          Bing.com allows search relevant to
                                                                                          user’s social circle and can be location
                              2nd most downloaded app on the iTunes
                                                                                          based.
                               Store. Comes pre-installed on Android


Source: Secondary Research, Booz & Company analysis



Booz & Company                 Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt
March 2011
Google has leveraged platform dominance- Android OS and
Gmail- to provide a digital ID
                                       Digital ID                                             Social ID

                                                                                         Google Social Search allows users to
                              Single Sign On, Gmail allows users to                      find content relevant to their social circle
                               log into all Google websites including                     (Twitter and Gmail contacts) by logging
                               Blogspot, Youtube, Google Apps and                         in through a Gmail ID.
                               Google Checkout
                                                                                         Filters searches displaying contacts’
                              Google Checkout is a single sign in                        reviews and recommendations first
                               Digital ID and an e-commerce
                               aggregator as it allows secure online
                               shopping straight from Google Search                      Google Maps offers a route planner for
                                                                                          traveling by foot, car, or public transport
                                                                                          and a location based urban business
                                                                                          locator for numerous countries around
                             Google’s strategy is to make Android a                      the world. Is currently the most popular
                              ubiquitous platform across devices                          global location based searched engine.
                              – dominant mobile OS (25%
                                smartphone market share)                                 “Location Awareness” uses Google
                              – Android also integral to Google TV                        Maps’ location based services on the
                              – Android forms the basis of the                            Android mobile platform coupled with
                                Chrome browser                                            Google’s social search capabilities



Source: Secondary Research, Booz & Company analysis



Booz & Company                 Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt
March 2011
The right to win for telcos is a function of the right business
models for investment, innovation, and monetization
                                                                      Business Models




           Infrastructure                     Network Sharing ?
           Investment Business                Ventures / Public-Private Partnerships ?
           Models                             Content Delivery Networks ?
                                                                                          Market demand

                                             Business models with service providers
                                              – Minimum Guarantees ?                      Competitive pressure
           Innovation Business
                                              – Tiered Quality of Service ?
           Models
                                              – Revenue Sharing ?
                                                                                          Service Attractiveness
                                             Engaging the developers community


                                                                                          Supply competitiveness
                                                Flat Fees ?
           Monetization                         Pay per View/download/Use ?
           Business Models
                                                Advertisement funded models ?
                                                Combination ?




Booz & Company          Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt
16-Mar-11
March 2011
                                                                                                                   27
In the game of changing business models, operators should
leverage their key assets
                                                            Assets of Operators in Value Chain Battle




                                            +                                              +                             +

          End Customer
                                                       Consumer Knowledge                             Digital ID               Infrastructure
           Relationship
   Direct customer interface                        Basic contract data enable            A single digital identity    Owned/operated
    due to contractual                                socio-demographic selection            across platforms              infrastructure
    relationship                                     Data packet inspection                IP detection enables         Bi-directional communication
   Billing and collection                            provides behavioral insights           Seamless identification       means, also as key enabler
                                                     Location data enable                   across platforms              for sustainable customer
                                                      location profiles                                                    relationships and insight
                                                                                                                           generation




Source: Booz & Company analysis

Booz & Company                    Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt
March 2011
Thank You

                                                Hadi Raad
                                                Principal
                                                hadi.raad@booz.com
                                                www.booz.com



Booz & Company   Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt
March 2011

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Broadband For Digitization

  • 1. Booz & Company Dubai, March 14, 2011 Conference Presentation Digitizing MENA Economies Winning Broadband Strategies By Hadi Raad Principal - Communication, Media, and Technology This document is confidential and is intended solely for the use and information of the client to whom it is addressed.
  • 2. A number of trends are gaining pace globally, driving a shift in telecom market traction Key Communication Trends Increased Device Usability Virtualization of Services  Greater availability of more lifestyle-  Cloud computing adapted devices  Over-the-top media growing in importance  Proliferation of touch screens (e.g. TV, movies, books)  Extended battery life  … Increased Mobility Applications Ecosystem  Extended independence of consumers,  Increasing number of customizable and (e.g. remote work, affordability of travel,) compatible applications  Dependency on supporting technology  More complementary products away from home and enterprise  …  … Technology Savvy Consumers Bandwidth Demand & Supply  Natural demand developing from next  Operators are continually investing in more generation of users (“Generation C”) capacity and upgrading networks  … – VDSL / Fiber deployments – LTE deployments  … Booz & Company Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt March 2011 1
  • 3. A new perspective of convergence across industries is breaking traditional silos allowing consumers to benefit from digitization Digitization of Economies Society Digitization will have broad implications on societies and economies Government Health  Making the US power grid 5% more effective Digital Presence through smart grids will save the CO2 Transport Education equivalent of 53m cars1) Broadband  Utilities loose 25-50% of treated water to Infrastructure leaks that could be remedied with appropriate smart infrastructure2) Media &  Congested roads in US cost 4.2bn work Energy hours and 10.6bn l petrol that could be Enter. saved with smart traffic mgmt  4.6bn mobile phones deliver location Smart Cloud Digital information today Systems Goods  Humans generate 100m tweets per day, Retail Industrial creating extensive data on preferences3)  Digital universe “data exhaust” reaching ~35 Home trillion GB 4) (created and processed in the Financial Convenience Services year)  79% of workers depend on internet and telecoms today Sources: Booz & Company analysis 1) IBM 2010 estimate 2) Lux Research 3) Twitter Status 10/2010 4) IDC/EMC estimates Booz & Company Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt March 2011 Archive number 2
  • 4. The challenges are rising to efficiently design and deploy the components required for Digital Economies Overall Needs NON-EXHAUSTIVE Smart Systems Digital Presence Digital Goods  Library management systems  Virtual classrooms  Collaborative content software Education  Student information systems  E-learning and distance learning  E-learning repositories  Hospital info. and workflow systems  Electronic Health Ordering Health  Electronic Health Record  Pharmacy portals  Chronic disease devices  E-government management systems  E-government portals  Digital signatures Government  Routing and scheduling systems  Electricity usage and distance Utilities  Smart grid systems control portals  Automatic stock deployment systems  e-stores  Digital books Retail  m-commerce  E-games, m-games, etc. Commercial  Payment processing network Banking  Authentication technologies  Mobile consumer banking  Digital wallets  Traffic flow simulators  E-kiosks Mass Transport  Routing and scheduling systems  Digital tickets  Road charging  Fleet vehicle tracking  Ad performance optimization  Digital voting systems  Digital content (IPTV, VoD, etc.) Media  Audience measurement  Digital advertising Smart systems adding intelligence Digital presence substitution of Electronically accessible digital to technology infrastructure and physical presence through online goods de-materializing traditional back-office processes and mobile communication physical goods Source: Booz & Company analysis Booz & Company Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt March 2011 3
  • 5. E-Health services, for example, create new markets by empowering patients and enhancing treatment opportunities for providers E-Health - Solutions and Customers EXAMPLES Smart Systems  Health education portals offer Digital Presence effective solutions to create Digital Goods awareness  E-Health programs cater to needs of increasing healthcare consumption • Online / mobile health  Electronic health records information enable quick and increase transparency, enable flexible access fraud detection and save costs Health • Mobile monitoring devices Authority offer new treatment solutions for an ageing society Patient Health Patient Insurance Operator  Support systems  New revenue sources can be (scheduling,…) enable cost- generated from disease effective services management Health care  Clinical decision support Profes-  Tele-diagnostic and tele- Hospital/ systems & e-prescription consultation present cost- Pharmacy sional increase patient safety effective solutions Source: EU commission, US NIH, Booz & Company analysis Booz & Company Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt March 2011
  • 6. As adoption curves continue to accelerate, digital economies applications could penetrate mass markets in few years INDICATIVE Years Adoption Curves are Accelerating Up and Coming Start-Ups in the 35 Digitization Realm  Layar - Augmented Reality on 30 smartphone Years to Reach 25% Penetration of  2m users, 1000 active layers, 4000 Population1 active developers 25  Fitbit - Digital Self Healthcare  Wearable sensor, collecting caloric 20 intake, number of steps, blood sugar level, blood pressure, sleep patterns, 15  Green Goose - Digital Life Sensors  Sensors to measure energy consumption, automobile usage, 10 water and heat usage 5  TaKaDu - Smart Infrastructure  Locates and predicts water-network events 0 Telephone Radio TV PC Mobile Internet Smart Social Digital Phone Media Economies Source: FCC, census.gov, Booz & Company Analysis ? 1) US Population Booz & Company Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt March 2011
  • 7. Digitization solutions are already driving transformation in traditional sectors achieving significant economic benefits EXAMPLES Examples of Digitization Applications Sector Digitization Solutions Example Expected Benefits  Xcel Energy installed 20,000 smart  Smart metering systems meters, connected them via fiber-optic  Save 10% on consumer bills Utilities  Smart distribution systems network, launched website to track power  Reduce peak demand by 15% use and offered dynamic pricing plans  Singapore integrated Intelligent  Real-time direct traffic flow Transportation System to automatically  Automatic systems for reducing  Reduce car fatalities by over 15% Transportation charge drivers for using congested roads, congestion  Reduce congestion time by over 20% adjust traffic lights, measure average  Intelligent public transportation speeds and provide parking-guidance  Intelligent real estate solutions to  Effectively manage larger  Songdo Smart City in South Korea manage building energy populations developed applications to remotely control Real Estate efficiency, security, utility supply  Reduce congestion times appliances, receive remote healthcare and  Remote appliance and security  Save on energy needs digitally interact with gov’t control  Provide remote social services  Remote systems for diagnostics  Ability to electronically deal with 750  Federal Government E-Health Program of chronic diseases million prescriptions per year Health developed electronic prescription system  Electronic health records  Improved supply of pharmaceutical on a national scale  Intelligent emergency response products Booz & Company Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt March 2011 6
  • 8. Digitization will swiftly drive the need for high-bandwidth next generation broadband such as FTTx and LTE Emerging Applications Requirements Tele Medicine Tele Learning Interactivity Level Multi-location Collaboration Virtual Sports Utility Computing Grids Social Networking Virtual Laboratories Email Rich Media HD/ Next Generation TV Browsing Video Conferencing 64 - 256 Kbps 512 Kbps - 2 Mbps 20 Mbps - 1 Gbps Effective Bandwidth Access Type Narrowband 1st Generation Broadband Next Generation Broadband Typical Technology Dialup, 2G DSL, 3G FTTx, LTE1) 1) Long Term Evolution Networks Source: Booz & Company analysis Booz & Company Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt March 2011 7
  • 9. In particular, Video could grow to represent more than half of the total internet traffic Consumer Global Internet Traffic YouTube Total Uploaded Video (‘000 TB x Month) (Hours per minute) (2005-2009) 32.128 35 35 30 24 25 20 20 16 25.168 15 10 +40% 17.751 Video 10 6 8 (55%) (PC, TV, ambient) 5 CAGR = 70% 0 Time 18.600 13.430 H1 07 H2 07 H1 08 H2 08 H2 09 H1 10 H2 10 (53%) US Average Download Minutes of Video 9.242 12.726 (50%) 800 per User per Month 732 (2005-2009) 5.283 9.629 8.755 (42%) File Sharing 600 7.722 (30%) 2.804 (31%) CAGR = 24% 6.021 6.248 400 318 +876% 1.251 5.022 (34%) 208 (39%) 4.083 Internet 200 142 3.345 4.016 4.748 (Web, Mail, 75 95 2.421 3.110 (15%) (16%) 1.425 1.868 (19%) (17%) Gaming, Voice) 0 CAGR = 27% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Comscore, Cisco, Booz & Company analysis Booz & Company Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt March 2011
  • 10. Digitization breadth and scale could span geography, connecting people, institutions, and devices … Breadth and Scale of Digital Economy Services Scale of coverage City level City/ State Digital Digital Health Government City-wide connected E-Education Neighbourhood District transportation Work Local connected industry transportation Home Leisure level Industries Finance/ E- commerce Neighbourhoods Home level Smart Home Breadth of integrated services Connecting people Connecting institutions Connecting devices Connecting people to devices Enablers Smart ICT Solutions ICT Infrastructure Digital Communities  Deployment of smart systems that  Build up of pervasive and intelligent  Sophisticated and innovative use of ICT Description allow users to access resources and ICT infrastructure by integrated communities capabilities more efficiently 3/16/2011Booz & Booz & Company Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt Company March 2011 9 DATE
  • 11. … entailing the need for high speed broadband even in less dense/rural areas Importance of High Speed Broadband in Rural Areas NON-EXHAUSTIVE Description Example Initiatives  Telemedicine offers the opportunity  A tele-pathology system developed in Japan allows Improved to bridge the gap between pathologists using high-definition video and remote- Healthcare healthcare services in rural and controlled microscopes to examine tissue samples urban areas from patients living in rural areas  South Korea developed the Education Broadcast  E-learning and online video tutorials Better Service (EBS) to help children in rural areas better can be a powerful tool to improve Education prepare for a national aptitude test through access to educational services in rural areas free video tutorials  The US government is active in promoting tele-  High speed broadband enables tele- Employment working for the federal government in order to working in rural areas and creates Opportunities promote employment in rural areas as well as reduce rural entrepreneurs traffic congestion  The Rural eGov project of the European Union aims  Broadband allows residents and Access to Government to study the needs of SMEs in rural areas for businesses in rural areas to have Services governmental and public services and offer policy access to e-government services recommendations to EU governments Booz & Company Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt March 2011 10
  • 12. However, a digital divide still exists even in developed markets Broadband Household Penetration Urban vs. Rural - (in %) - 2009 Urban Rural 39 +15 28 28 26 24 +4 24 23 23 21 +14 +10 +7 16 16 16 14 14 +2 14 +7 9 France Italy UK Spain Germany Sweden Greece US Source: iDATE Consulting & Research, 2009 Booz & Company Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt March 2011
  • 13. Digitization in MENA is expected to accelerate, driven by increasing maturity along four enablers Digitization Momentum in the MENA Region 1 Improved Governments’ 2 Advent of Next Generation Readiness Broadband  Government in several MENA countries  MENA operators building next have reformed and are ready to generation broadband infrastructure implement long-term planning of and have reduced connectivity costs national policies by 40% since 2008  Governments now pushing for  Operators designing supply side implementation of ICT solution and e- initiatives and are developing tailored Programs across ministries/ agencies sectoral digitization solutions MENA Digitization Trends 3 Growing Consumer Demand 4 Increased Adoption of ICT by  MENA consumers accustomed to Enterprises online and mobile services with an  Adoption and spend on ICT services expected yearly increase in apps by Enterprises in the MENA on the rise - downloads of 44% till 2014 growing at twice the average of global peers  Penetration rate of fast fixed and mobile broadband connectivity to rise to  MENA Enterprises integrating 24% (households) and 34% (users) by advanced ICT solutions without the 2014 respectively hurdle of legacy systems Source: Booz & Company analysis Booz & Company Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt March 2011 12
  • 14. Regional governments have significantly prioritized ICT on their policy agenda and national development plans EXAMPLES Digitization Momentum in MENA – Governments National Development ICT Demand ICT Vision and Strategy ICT Investment Plans Stimulation GCC ICT Investments2 National Development National ICT Strategy (2010-2012) Plans of Jordan 2012 e-Maroc 2010 KSA 90 Abu Dhabi Economic UAE 46 Vision 2030 ICT2015 Kuwait 17 Qatar 15 Qatar National Vision E-Government Oman 8 Total 2030 Strategy $180 Bn Bahrain 5 Kuwait 5- Year Development Plan MENA region recorded Government authorities are ICT authorities in region fastest increases in releasing significant are actively influencing Bahrain Economic Networked Readiness funds to develop and the increase in ICT Vision 2030 Index1, reflecting efficiency integrate ICT within demand through various of ICT strategies government entities initiatives 1) Global Information Technology Report 2009-2010 2) GCC ICT Infrastructure Report by Kuwait Financial Centre (Markaz) Source: Booz & Company analysis 3/16/2011Booz & Booz & Company Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt Company March 2011 13 DATE
  • 15. Regional telecom operators are offering Next Generation Broadband, at declining prices Residential ADSL Availability Broadband Prices1) as % of GDP per Capita (PPP) (Selected MENA Countries) (Selected MENA Countries) 4 Mbps 8 Mbps 10 Mbps 16 Mbps 24 Mbps 15.5% Egypt 9.0% Bahrain 10.3% Egypt Jordan 7.0% Jordan 8.5% Bahrain 4.6% Kuwait 7.3% KSA 5.0% Lebanon 4.7% Morocco Oman 4.0% Oman 4.7% Kuwait 1.6% Qatar 2.1% KSA Qatar 1.5% 2008 UAE 1.8% UAE 1.6% 2010  Telecom operators and ISPs have rolled out an  Broadband prices in the MENA region have infrastructure capable of providing high connection significantly dropped over the last two years enabling speeds to users people to select faster connections 1) Annual Broadband prices ae for 1Mbps connection Source: Arab Advisors, Booz & Company analysis 3/16/2011Booz & Booz & Company Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt Company March 2011 14 DATE
  • 16. MENA consumers are accelerating their adoption of broadband and smart phones … MENA Customer Technology Adoption Fixed Broadband Mobile Broadband Smart Phones Adoption in Users in MENA Users MENA MEA (2009-2012) (Millions) (2009-2014) (Millions) (In ‘000s) (2009-2014) +31% 107 26,141 74 77 +36% 21,455 67 +73% 17,127 54 66 12,875 37 39 8,845 20 22 5,661 7 12 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014  Broadband Households Penetration is  Smartphone sales CAGR over 2010-2014 over 60% in the UAE, 30% in KSA, and  User penetration should leap from 2% range between 14% (KSA) and 28% (Egypt) should reach 24% in the region by to 34% from 2009 to 2014  Smartphone users are 3x more likely to use 2014 broadband 1) Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, KSA, Syria, Tunisia, UAE, Yement Source: Informa, WBIS 2009 Ovum, Gartner, Booz & Company analysis 3/16/2011Booz & Booz & Company Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt Company March 2011 15 DATE
  • 17. … and are increasingly more sophisticated and adept in digital media MENA Customer Sophistication Indicators Mobile Apps Downloads Most Common Ratio of Facebook (‘000)(2008-2014) Internet activities Users in MENA (% of MENA respondents) (2009) (% of Population) (2009) 1,234.3 1% Listening to radio In May 2010 Facebook had around 0.3% Iraq +44% 1,036.7 3% VOIP Calls 15 Mn active users in the MENA region 2.7% Egypt Downloading music, 824.8 3% videos… 4.9% KSA 619.6 4% Watching videos / TV 425.3 6% Online games 8.6% Jordan 249.9 8% Emails 8.6% Tunisia 136.5 14% Social networking 16.6% Lebanon 15% Chatting 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 43% Getting information 21.9% UAE  Number of apps downloads will increase at  MENA internet consumers are active users of  Facebook penetration of internet a yearly rate of 44% – 15% of which are new online applications: games, video users is amongst the highest in the paid streaming, VoIP, etc. world Source: Ovum Mobile Apps Forecast 2010, Middle East & North Africa Twitter Demographics & User Habits Survey August 2009, Arab Media Outlook 2009-2013, SpotOnPR 3/16/2011Booz & Booz & Company Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt Company March 2011 16 DATE
  • 18. To capture digitization opportunity, Telcos need a clear positioning on infrastructure, applications, and monetization business models How to Win the Broadband Game? Strategic Imperatives 1 A Right to Play 2 A Right to Compete 3 A Right to Win Broadband Broadband Business Models Infrastructure Ecosystem  Demand-driven FTTx rollout  Positioning in the broadband  Infrastructure  Harmonized investment in ecosystem deployment business Wireless broadband (WiFi,  Horizontal Services models Wimax, LTE)  Vertical applications  Innovation stimulation  Government investment support partnerships (e-education, m- business models / Demand stimulation ? health, etc)  Monetization business  Content partnerships models Booz & Company Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt March 2011 17
  • 19. Operators mass broadband technology strategy will depend on a number of market specific considerations CONCEPTUAL Integrated Infrastructure Perspective: Key Trade-Offs Urban Suburban Rural 1 Right cut-off-point? Technology Commercial Availability Coverage Which technology? 100% (VDSL vs. FTTH) Density Ongoing FTTx 0% ~2013 LTE ~2016 full deployment 2 Fixed-Wireless-Mobile 3 complementarity? ongoing Rural copper 3G substitution? 2G ongoing possibly discontinued in 2016 4 2G/3G switch-off? Copper ongoing 5 ADSL2+ Case for extension of ADSL2+ capability? Booz & Company Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt March 2011 18
  • 20. A clear positioning is needed in the broadband ecosystem to capture the market opportunity Broadband Ecosystem & The Battle for future Profits Content Providers Ho Service Providers s r izo ce nt vi Over-The-Top Providers r a ls Content se er al vi tic c es er , A rvice eting e-gove V Payments En Se Mark s Me tainm es Mobile ter or dia en e-t rnment St ital Sm ra d s & , pp ar ou e rce ns tG Dig Cl rvic me po rid m e-ed Se -co BS t rt uc atio m L , , n merce Co-opetition battle Over the Top Services e- comcial for future profit e-health so erce comm pools Pads & Tablets Home Automation TVs & STBs Devices Gaming Cell & Smart phones Computers Systems Integrators / Systems Integration IT Services Operators Network Device Players Managed Services Network Operations Connectivity Services Software Fiber Switches Routers Servers Infrastructure Copper m-to-m Devices Satellite Wireless Mobile Booz & Company Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt March 2011 19
  • 21. OTT players are capturing value in the new ecosystem by securing the right positioning and crafting attractive value flow models Categories of Application Leaders Philosophy Own natural Distribute Bridge to User generated points of Value capture unique content physical world content concentration model A Commerce Transaction-based Music Store B Customer Super Pass Subscription-based Analytics C Super Pass No examples found Advertising-based Music Store Monopoly on particular Creating own format Leverage efficiencies Develop a framework aspects of consumer’s and developing an of online world for to house user interests and ecosystem around productivity in generated content concentrated branding the format physical world Limited models yet Booz & Company Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt March 2011
  • 22. OTTv players, for example, are capturing growth in video through creative business models and efficient partnering Examples of OTT (over the top) Offers US Video Content Sites - April 2010 - Google TV .com Apple TV Unique Viewers Videos / Viewers - in mn. - - per month - Google sites/ 136 96 Partners YouTube Hulu 39 25 Aggregate all Microsoft sites 40 16 Provide Provide high video content Professional quality video Viacom Digital 39 10 across Mission content of content via platforms stations via iTune store Yahoo! Sites 50 8 (Broadcast TV, the internet (sell through) YouTube, Web) Vevo 44 8 Set-top box Streamed content Set-top box linked connected to online on PCs to iTunes store Fox Interactive 44 7 Description Internet Limited Audio and video CBS Interactive 39 8 (or in Sony TVs) advertising content Turner Digital 33 9 Business Targeted Targeted Hardware sale + Model advertising advertising share of content Facebook 41 6 Status To be launched ~50m viewers Launched 2005 TV Format Invaders TV Station own Sites Note: Excludes video server networks Source: ComScore, Insight Express, TopTenReviews.com, Booz & Company analysis Booz & Company Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt March 2011
  • 23. Players are threatening telcos’ positioning either through owning unique interfaces or providing core telecom services Illustrative Scenario of an Applications Player’s EXAMPLE Strategy to Compete on Telecom Operator’s Turf Non-Telecom Services Core telecom Services  Yahoo!, with its applications and content rich portal Attract with attracts customers from Operator’s portal and has Appealing cannibalized Operators’ email service Free Internet  Skype offers free pc-pc internet calling Portal calling  Yahoo! offers free toolbar and suggests making Yahoo! as customers’ homepage  Yahoo! further solidifies its relationship with  Skype offers a simple, convenient, and consumers by locking them into subscription based cost-effective way for people Enter into Cheap VoIP services - such as personal, classifieds etc anywhere in the world to communicate Contract Calls  Yahoo! partners with other service providers, such as from their computers over the Internet Expedia, to offer travel services to landlines and mobile phones  Yahoo! partners with billing agency (Paypal etc) to 1 process customer transactions  Skype offers mobile apps that enables Start Billing Convergence  These payments could be per transaction basis (flight VoIP applications over mobile with Mobile booking) or on monthly basis broadband  Yahoo! enters into partnership with customer care 4 Offer Customer firms to manage post-sale customer service on transactions such as flight bookings, a call center to Service provide better customer service. This takes away Telecom Operator’s last contact point with customers Booz & Company Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt March 2011
  • 24. To stay relevant, Telecom operators need to keep control of core components: Digital ID across devices and location awareness Network providers had limited reaction … …despite having strengths in key areas Discussion Single Login  Telecom operators reaction to date has generally been limited  Operators, in general, have so far reacted to such developments through actions such as: Digital ID With commerce - – Trying to sustain business by banning emerging products (e.g. T-Mobile blocks Skype usage on mobile phones) – Profiting from increasing innovation of other players by forming alliances to (e.g. AT&T - iPhone exclusivity) Across devices – Offering additional products and services by moving into quadruple play (cable television, broadband internet access and fixed line and mobile telephony) with premium content Social context - Social ID Location awareness Area of strength for Source:, Booz & Company analysis network provider Booz & Company Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt March 2011
  • 25. Time is not to Telcos’ advantage - OTT players have already started staking claim on core components, such as digital and social IDs Strategic Thrusts To Gain Control of Sources of Value Digital ID Social ID Location Single Login With commerce Across devices Social context awareness Facebook has leveraged Dominant social Introduced its dominance in social Facebook ‘Facebook ‘Facebook App’ networking to establish a networking ‘Facebook Connect Credits’ across devices single login and include platform Places’ location awareness Google maps; Google enjoys device ubiquity via Android but Google social Android location Google Pay has had limited success search awareness in the social space capabilities Apple has the strongest Ping - a social walled garden and has network for music recently made a foray in social networking Note: See appendix for more detail on player strategies Relative position of Source: Booz & Company analysis strength Booz & Company Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt March 2011
  • 26. Facebook has leveraged its dominance in social networking to establish a single login and include location based offerings Digital ID Social ID  Facebook Connect allows users to log  Dominant Social Network - More than into external sites while adding basic 500 million active users with 50% of FB features users active daily  Users carry their FB social graph and  Users spend over 700 billion minutes per FB identity around the internet month on Facebook  Facebook Places is a location based  Facebook Credits are virtual service that currency that users use to buy virtual – allows users to update their location goods in games and applications on the and connect with contacts in that area Facebook Platform. – “Places Deals", allows users to find local deals  Facebook receives 30% of all revenues  Facebook Applications - Over 200  Social Search tie up with Microsoft’s million active mobile users Bing.com allows search relevant to user’s social circle and can be location  2nd most downloaded app on the iTunes based. Store. Comes pre-installed on Android Source: Secondary Research, Booz & Company analysis Booz & Company Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt March 2011
  • 27. Google has leveraged platform dominance- Android OS and Gmail- to provide a digital ID Digital ID Social ID  Google Social Search allows users to  Single Sign On, Gmail allows users to find content relevant to their social circle log into all Google websites including (Twitter and Gmail contacts) by logging Blogspot, Youtube, Google Apps and in through a Gmail ID. Google Checkout  Filters searches displaying contacts’  Google Checkout is a single sign in reviews and recommendations first Digital ID and an e-commerce aggregator as it allows secure online shopping straight from Google Search  Google Maps offers a route planner for traveling by foot, car, or public transport and a location based urban business locator for numerous countries around  Google’s strategy is to make Android a the world. Is currently the most popular ubiquitous platform across devices global location based searched engine. – dominant mobile OS (25% smartphone market share)  “Location Awareness” uses Google – Android also integral to Google TV Maps’ location based services on the – Android forms the basis of the Android mobile platform coupled with Chrome browser Google’s social search capabilities Source: Secondary Research, Booz & Company analysis Booz & Company Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt March 2011
  • 28. The right to win for telcos is a function of the right business models for investment, innovation, and monetization Business Models Infrastructure  Network Sharing ? Investment Business  Ventures / Public-Private Partnerships ? Models  Content Delivery Networks ? Market demand  Business models with service providers – Minimum Guarantees ? Competitive pressure Innovation Business – Tiered Quality of Service ? Models – Revenue Sharing ? Service Attractiveness  Engaging the developers community Supply competitiveness  Flat Fees ? Monetization  Pay per View/download/Use ? Business Models  Advertisement funded models ?  Combination ? Booz & Company Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt 16-Mar-11 March 2011 27
  • 29. In the game of changing business models, operators should leverage their key assets Assets of Operators in Value Chain Battle + + + End Customer Consumer Knowledge Digital ID Infrastructure Relationship  Direct customer interface  Basic contract data enable  A single digital identity  Owned/operated due to contractual socio-demographic selection across platforms infrastructure relationship  Data packet inspection  IP detection enables  Bi-directional communication  Billing and collection provides behavioral insights Seamless identification means, also as key enabler  Location data enable across platforms for sustainable customer location profiles relationships and insight generation Source: Booz & Company analysis Booz & Company Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt March 2011
  • 30. Thank You Hadi Raad Principal hadi.raad@booz.com www.booz.com Booz & Company Hadi Raad - Broadband for Digitization vBBWF110314.ppt March 2011