"Dimensions of armed violence and insecurity in Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia"
Regional Review Conference on the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development
Geneva, Switzerland | 8-9 July 2014
Antisemitism Awareness Act: pénaliser la critique de l'Etat d'Israël
Jacques Baud, Political Affairs and Security Policy Division, NATO
1. 1351J. Baud 8-9 July 2014
ARMED VIOLENCE IN EUROPE,
THE CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
SMALL ARMS & LIGHT WEAPONS
TRAFFICKING
July 8, 2014
Jacques F. Baud
2. 1352J. Baud 8-9 July 2014
110’000
170’000
SMALL ARMS
SMALL ARMS DISTRIBUTED AND LOST IN IRAQ (2004)
185’000
80’000
3. 1353J. Baud 8-9 July 2014
ARMS TRANSFER
• Inconsistent
approach from
Western countries
– Support despite poor
understanding of ground
realities;
– Clandestine/parallel support
may convey the wrong
signal.
• Increased granularity
of transfers
– Opportunistic cooperation
– Shifting “centres of gravity”
4. 1354J. Baud 8-9 July 2014
FLUID INTERACTION BETWEEN ARMED GROUPS
TOW 2 ANTITANK MISSILE – HARAKAT HAZM (SYRIA)
WORKS WITH…
SHARE WEAPONS
WITH…
5. 1355J. Baud 8-9 July 2014
EMERGING NEW INDUSTRY
WEAPONS MANUFACTURED BY SUNNI REBEL GROUPS
6. 1356J. Baud 8-9 July 2014
TERRITORIAL MILITIAS
ESTIMATED 15’000
Local territorial militias
established by Ukraine
prior to the events.
ARMED VOLUNTEERS
ESTIMATED 4’000
Russian-speaking hunting
societies and other
associations that joined
the insurrection
RUSSIAN MILITARY
UP TO 25’000
Troopers deployed as per
agreement with Ukraine
up to 2017 (extended to
2042 in 2010). Allowed to
be deployed for security
purposes.
UKRAINIAN DEFECTORS
ESTIMATED 9’000
Russian-speaking soldiers
and military units that
defected to Russia early
2014.
‘L"TTLE GREEN MEN’ (CRIMEA)
Where do the weapons come from ?
7. 1357J. Baud 8-9 July 2014
BUILDING SECURITY IN THE AFGHAN REGION
POST-2014 / JOINT NATO-SIPRI INITIATIVE
• Leveraging human
security to promote
regional dialogue
– Generate regional
cooperation on day-to-day
solutions
• Regional ownership
– Related to the Istanbul Process
– State and Non-State Actors
– NATO as a catalyst only
8. 1358J. Baud 8-9 July 2014
SUMMARY
• Importance of Lessons Learned
• Importance of partnerships
– Mediterranean Dialogue
– Istanbul Cooperation Initiative
• Development of International cooperation with multilateral
organisations
– Addressing issues holistically within the framework of NATO’s
expertise
– Exploiting synergies with other actors
Hinweis der Redaktion
Focus on so diverse regions tends to distract from other phenomenon. The recent publication of a map of the Caliphate by the Islamic State in Iraq and Levant showing the indicates that beyond the legitimacy and the feasibility, some have a vision
Yellow figure represents the weapons lost without trace between June and December 2014. considering that the estimated number of combatants in Iraq and Syria today is about 100’000,
Western approach to SALW marked by conflicting interests. Partly because parties of the conflict are not thoroughly assessed.
Weapons are not only provided to so-called “moderate” armed groups known to cooperate with more radical groups, but these weapons because of their range can be used from within the border of neighboring countries, thus threatening to widen the conflict. Further, we can notice a radicalization of moderate groups.
Local development and production of weapons may look anecdotal, but may have strategic implications, as we have seen in august 2013 with chemical weapons.
We tend to oversimplify conflict parameters, leading to excessive wording, and to closing the door to dialogue and solution finding