The document discusses potential solutions to unemployment resulting from technological advancement. It analyzes a study finding that 47% of current jobs are at high risk of automation. Three proposed solutions are: 1) Adopting a creative economy focused on cultural industries like design, arts, and media to generate new jobs. 2) Implementing a social and solidarity economy model based on cooperation over private profit. 3) Establishing a universal basic income guaranteed by the government and funded by taxes on technology companies, to be combined with promoting the creative and social economies.
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The solutions against unemployment resulting from technological advancement
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THE SOLUTIONS AGAINST UNEMPLOYMENT RESULTING FROM
TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENT
Fernando Alcoforado *
Martin Ford, a futurist and author dedicated to the study of artificial intelligence,
robotics and the impact on employment, said that researchers at Oxford University
published in 2013 a detailed study of the impact of computing on employment in the
United States, considering recent advances in machine learning and mobile robots. They
analyzed each of the professional categories cataloged by the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics based on a database of skills required to perform those jobs. The researchers
concluded that 47% of current jobs are at high risk of automation in the coming years
and decades and another 19% at medium risk. They consider that only a third of current
workers are saved from replacement in the next one or two decades (FORD, Martin.
Rise of the Robots. New York: Basic Books, 2015).
We live without a doubt an era defined by the fundamental change between workers and
machines and that this change puts in check one of the basic hypotheses about the
technology that machines are instruments that increases the productivity of workers.
Instead, machines are turning into workers. Faced with the prospect of replacing
workers by machines, the solutions that are presented to mitigate the effects of
unemployment generated by the technological advance in the current developmental
frameworks of capitalism concern the adoption of the Creative Economy, the Social and
Solidarity Economy and the Transfer Program of Income.
Regarding the Creative Economy, Marisa Adán Gil informs that it is one of the most
effective ways to generate new jobs based on the opinion of George Windsor, research
director of Nesta, a nonprofit organization that aims to stimulate the 12 sectors of the
creative economy in the UK. In Windsor's view, job creation linked to creativity has
enormous potential to move the economy, that is, "the creative industry adds value to
products in a way that no other industry is capable of". According to Windsor, there are
several ways to generate jobs linked to the knowledge economy: to stimulate the
gaming industry; develop local creative nuclei that work based on the cultural traditions
of each region; facilitate credit for creative sectors of the economy; investment in design
and technology education. If the British government embraces these measures, he
believes it is possible to create 1 million jobs in the UK by 2030. According to Windsor,
today the Creative Economy is one of the fastest growing sectors of the world economy.
It is also one of the most profitable areas in terms of generating profits, jobs and exports
of goods and services [GIL, Marisa Adán. Economia criativa é saída para o
desemprego, diz especialista (Creative economy is solution to unemployment, says
expert). Available on website
<http://revistapegn.globo.com/Empreendedorismo/noticia/2015/12/economia-criativa-e-
saida-para-o-desemprego-diz-especialista.html>, 2015].
The article The creative economy in the modern world informs that the term "Creative
Economy" refers to activities with socioeconomic potential that deal with creativity,
knowledge and information. In order to understand it, it is necessary to keep in mind
that companies of this sector combine the creation, production and commercialization of
cultural creative assets and innovation such as Fashion, Art, Digital Media, Advertising,
Journalism, Photography and Architecture. In common, area businesses rely on talent
and creativity to effectively exist. They are distributed in 13 different areas: 1)
architecture; 2) advertising; 3) design; 4) arts and antiquities; 5) crafts; 6) fashion; 7)
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cinema and video; 8) television; 9) publishing and publications; 10) performing arts; 11)
radio; 12) leisure software; and, 13) music. It is important to say that by focusing on
creativity, imagination and innovation as its main characteristic, the Creative Economy
is not restricted to products, services or technologies. It also encompasses processes,
business models, management models, etc.[ DESCOLA. A economia criativa no mundo
moderno (The creative economy in the modern world). Available on the website
<https://descola.org/drops/a-economia-criativa-no-mundo-moderno/>, 2016].
In sectors linked to art, for example, such as performing arts, visuals and music, the
number of opportunities that stimulate specialized in filming, recording and
photography services is increasing. In addition, the individual interested in this area
may also choose to specialize in show management and art direction; creation of
scenery and costumes, for example, in addition to lighting, sound, image services. In
this area, there are also painting studios, for example. In the communications sector, the
list of specializations is also great: service to the public; traditional and digital
marketing, creation of websites, brands and portals. There are also the media-related
segments, which include video and game production, and audiovisual distribution and
display systems, which also generate countless jobs, that is, from creating content to
managing and distributing it, is a fairly rich area opportunities. Advertising also
stimulates publishing, reproduction and printing services, as well as the management of
agencies and advertising companies. This group is very rich and diverse contemplating
several professions in all the stages of production, recording, finalization and post-
production of advertisements, marketing etc. Among the businesses related to design,
architecture, among others, are, for example, agencies and startups, architectural and
engineering technical offices and design studios.
On Social and Solidarity Economy, it is important to note that it is one of the ways of
the future to invent other ways of producing and consuming, contributing to greater
social cohesion. This is the opinion of Géraldine Lacroix and Romain Slitine presented
in his book L'économie sociale et solidaire (Paris: Presses Universitaires de France,
2016). According to Lacroix and Slitine, from fair trade to solidarity saving through
social innovations in the field of protecting the environment, combating social exclusion
or equal opportunities, the Social and Solidarity Economy offers answers to many
questions of contemporary society. In this book it is reported that the Social and
Solidarity Economy corresponds to 10% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and
accounts for 12.7% of employment in France. In Brazil, the Social and Solidarity
Economy represents 1% of GDP [REDE BRASIL ATUAL. Com autogestão, economia
solidária já representa 1% do PIB no Brasil (With self-management, solidary economy
already represents 1% of GDP in Brazil). Available on website
<http://www.redebrasilatual.com.br/economia/2015/08/economia-solidaria-ja-
representa-1-do-pib-no-brasil-3696.html, 2015>].
The Social and Solidarity Economy is a new model of economic, social, political and
environmental development that has a different way of generating work and income, in
several sectors, be it community banks, credit cooperatives, family agriculture
cooperatives, fair trade, exchange clubs, etc. The Social and Solidarity Economy is a
new way of organizing work and economic activities in general, emerging as an
important alternative for the inclusion of workers in the labor market, giving a new
opportunity to them, through self-management. On the basis of the Social and Solidarity
Economy, there is the possibility of recovering companies from the bankruptcy mass,
and give continuity to them, with a new mode of production, in which profit
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maximization ceases to be the main objective, giving rise to the maximization of
quantity and quality of work.
It should be noted that Social and Solidarity Economy emerged in Europe with the first
Industrial Revolution in the late eighteenth century. However, it was in Great Britain
(more precisely in England) that it took the sharpest form from the nineteenth century,
as a "response to the worsening of the labor crisis" and the growing dissatisfaction with
the performance of the public social security system. In view of these economic and
social gaps that the history of capitalism has produced comes up, as an alternative
model, the Social and Solidarity Economy [SILVA, José Luís Alves e SILVA, Sandra
Isabel Reis. A economia solidária como base do desenvolvimento local (Solidarity
Economy as a basis for local development). Available on website
<https://journals.openedition.org/eces/1451>, 2008]. It should be noted that the Social
and Solidarity Economy was invented by workers in the early days of industrial
capitalism.
The Social and Solidarity Economy, in its resurgence around the end of the twentieth
century, appeared as a response of the workers to the productive restructuring of
globalized capitalism and to the abusive and unused criteria of new technologies that
provoked mass unemployment and the bankruptcy of companies. Social and Solidarity
Economy stands as a possible alternative to generate employment for workers who are
mostly excluded from the formal labor market and consumption. The Social and
Solidarity Economy has emerged in various parts of the world with practices of
economic and social relations that are promoting the survival and the improvement of
the quality of life of millions of people. These practices are based on solidary relations
of collaboration, inspired by cultural values that place the human being as the subject
and purpose of economic activity, instead of private accumulation of wealth in general
and capital in particular.
Martin Ford states that in our economy and society, machines are gradually undergoing
a fundamental transition: they develop beyond their historical role as a tool and, in
many cases, become "autonomous workers" (FORD, Martin. Rise of the robots. New
York: Basic Books, 2015). If we accept the idea that it is unrealistic to stop automation
and that more investment in education and training is unlikely to solve the problem of
unemployment, Ford believes that the most effective solution is to adopt an income
guarantee policy for workers. This idea is not new. Friedrich August von Hayek,
Austrian economist and philosopher, later naturalized British, considered one of the
greatest representatives of the Austrian School of economic thought, was the proponent
of this idea when he published his work Law, Legislation and Liberty (Routledge, 1988)
between 1973 and 1979. The neoliberal income transfer program of the Lula and Dilma
Rousseff governments in Brazil, the Bolsa Família, is an example of the application of
Hayek's income guarantee policy.
In addition to the need to provide basic net security, Ford (2015) states that there is a
powerful argument for the adoption of income guarantee policy because technological
advancement, in addition to promoting mass unemployment and vertiginous social
inequality, threatens capitalism itself with the prospect of vertiginous fall of the
consumption. As the labor market continues to erode and wages stagnate or fall, the
mechanism that ensures consumers' purchasing power begins to break down and the
demand for products and services suffer as a result. Faced with this fact, the income
guarantee policy would provide the conditions for unemployed workers to consume. It
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would be for the governments of the countries of the world to levy taxes on high-tech
companies to ensure the adoption of the income guarantee policy for the unemployed
population. The Income Transfer Program through which the State would provide
income to the unemployed would be put into practice together with the adoption of the
Creative Economy and the Social and Solidarity Economy as a solution to mass
unemployment resulting from technological advancement.
* Fernando Alcoforado, 78, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor in
Territorial Planning and Regional Development by the University of Barcelona, university professor and
consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy
systems, is the author of 13 books addressing issues such as Globalization and Development, Brazilian
Economy, Global Warming and Climate Change, The Factors that Condition Economic and Social
Development, Energy in the world and The Great Scientific, Economic, and Social Revolutions that
Changed the World.