Socio-economic benefits of satellite data

EUM/DG/VWG/14/770830, 1 23 September 2014
Socio-Economic Benefits of
Polar Satellite Data
Alain Ratier
Director-General
WMO / EUMETSAT Side-Event
Socio-Economic Benefits of Satellites
EUMETSAT Meteorological
Conference
Geneva - 23 September 2014

The challenge: from observation to benefits
Slide: 2
Benefits from public and private decisions
Forecaster Expertise
Numerical Prediction (ECMWF and NMSs)
2 EUM/DG/VWG/14/770830, 23 September 2014
Forecast & support to
decision making
Observation
Delivery and value
Requirements

Methodology

Joining forces
• Socio-economic benefit study launched in 2011, updated in 2013
• Collaborative venture:
- Socio-Economic Benefits of forecasts: World Bank/Météo-France
- Impact of satellites on forecasts : ECMWF, UKMO, DWD
- Benefits attributable to satellites : All

Benefits areas of weather forecasting
Safety of life, property
and infrastructure…
Transport … ...Climate policy and
environment protection
….... ......
....Energy, agriculture,
tourism....

Transports: impact on aviation
Eyjafjallajökull Ash cloud from 7 to 11 May 2010
(Second eruption)

Energy sector

Focus on areas where benefits of forecast can be quantified
• Areas where quantitative assessment of benefits exists, is
documented by research and publications
• Protection of property and infrastructure (avoided costs)
• Direct added value to the European Economy
• Value of private Use by European Citizens
• Published socio-economic studies compiled, analysed and
extrapolated by an economist of the World Bank
• Scope: European Union (EU 27)

Protection of Property & Infrastructure (avoided costs)
• Forecast information integrated into warning/civil protection systems
limits economic losses due to floods and storms
• Floods in Europe cost on average €4Bn/year
• Storms in Europe cost on average €2.6Bn/year
• Based on published information, likely annual benefit of forecast
information in limiting EU losses due to floods and storms is €2.75Bn
• Publications suggest that forecasts of other severe phenomena (risk
of forest fires, snow, heat-waves, cold spells, etc.) bring altogether
benefits in the same order as for floods and storms
• Likely aggregate benefit is €5.5Bn/year

Direct Added Value to the EU Economy (Exc. private use)
• Forecasts widely used to optimize business/increase productivity:
• Transport Sector:
• Air traffic management (e.g. reduction in weather-induced delays)
• Route planning / optimisation
• Road and rail network management, …..
• Ship routing
• Energy Sector: demand estimation, supply/grid management….)
• Agriculture (planting, harvesting, use of fertilizers…)
• Leisure and tourism (demand planning)
• Construction (planning)
• Mining

Direct Added Value to the EU Economy… Ct’d
• About 1/3 of EU GDP is weather-sensitive, with some sectors particularly
sensitive (e.g. transport and energy)
• Aviation sector alone contributes over €120Bn to European GDP, as
well as being a vital infrastructure component for Europe
• Estimations available for added value of weather forecasts to weather-sensitive
sectors of the EU economy
• Published studies show that forecast information yields at least “added
value” of 0.25%: the benefit is at least €10.23Bn/year in the EU
• Published studies suggest that 1% is a more realistic value on average:
the corresponding benefit is €41Bn/year

Value of Private Use by European Citizens
• A US study has indicated that private households in the US place a
value of about US$280 / year on forecast information
• Assuming European households are prepared to pay €20/year
(directly or through taxes), the aggregate benefit is €4Bn/year
• With a more likely value of €80/year for European households the
benefit increases to 15Bn/year

Estimated benefits of weather forecast in the EU 27
BENEFIT AREA LIKELY
Protection of property and infrastructure €5.4 billion/year
Added value to the European economy €41.0 billion/year
Private use by European citizens €15.0 billion/year
TOTAL €61.5 billion/year
Not captured: value of hundreds of lives saved each year is not captured
Also ignored: additional benefits of weather forecasts on specialised forecasts of weather-dependent
phenomena, i.e. air quality, marine forecasts, dispersion of pollution, etc.

Impact of Metop Data on Forecasting
Parallel investigations undertaken to provide 3 different perspectives
on impact of EPS / Metop-SG on forecast accuracy:
Assessment of the relative contributions of the various
observation sources to forecast accuracy (Met Office UK)
Statistical Impact on Forecast Accuracy using Data Denial
Experiments (ECMWF)
Case Study on the Impact of Polar Data on the Forecasting of
Winter Storms over Europe (DWD)

Observations into models: « Assimilation »
Constraining the initial model « trajectory »
« RRRReeeeaaaallll AAAAttttmmmmoooosssspppphhhheeeerrrreeee »
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nnnneeeewwww oooobbbbsssseeeerrrrvvvvaaaattttiiiioooonnnnssss
ttttiiiimmmmeeee
TTTT0000 - 00006666hhhh TTTT0000 TTTT0000 ++++ 22224444hhhh
OOOObbbbsssseeeerrrrvvvvaaaattttiiiioooonnnnssss
MMMMooooddddeeeellll FFFFoooorrrreeeeccccaaaasssstttt
EEEErrrrrrrroooorrrr
RRRReeeedddduuuuccccttttiiiioooonnnn
SSSSttttaaaatttteeee ooooffff aaaattttmmmmoooosssspppphhhheeeerrrreeee

Major impact of Metop-A on Day 1 forecast
EEEErrrrrrrroooorrrr
RRRReeeedddduuuuccccttttiiiioooonnnn
24.5%
RELATIVE CONTRIBUTION
OF OBSERVATIONS TO
REDUCTION OF ERROR IN
DAY 1 NUMERICAL
FORECAST
TTTT0000 ++++ 22224444hhhh

ECMWF Data Denial Experiments

Beyond statistics, some cases matter more than
others: ECMWF Forecasts of Sandy landfall
Slide: 18

Beyond statistics, some cases matter more than
others: DWD Forecasts of Nicolas winter storm
• Winter storm “Nicolas”: 45 hour forecasts and operational analysis (best approximation of ground truth) of
surface pressure (contour lines) and 10m wind speed (shaded areas – units M/S) for 7 February 2011

IMPACT OF METOP DATA ON FORECASTING – MAIN RESULTS
• Polar orbiting satellites account for more than 58% of the impact of all
observations on NWP forecasts
• Metop-A biggest individual contributor at around 25%, i.e. roughly 2.5 times
greater than a fully functional spacecraft from a previous generation (i.e. NOAA-
19)
• Loss of Metop data would lead to an 8% drop in forecast accuracy over Europe
(assuming other components of the observing system remained in place)
• If Metop were the only polar orbiting meteorological spacecraft, its loss would
result in a 13% drop in forecast accuracy over Europe
• A 15-20% loss of forecast accuracy would result from the simultaneous
unavailability of Metop and the US counterpart of the Initial Joint Polar System

Benefits of forecast attributable to EPS/Metop
Most conservative forecast impact of 8% taken for calculating benefits
BENEFIT AREA LIKELY
Protection of property and infrastructure € 0.4 billion/year
Added value to the European economy € 3.3 billion/year
Private use by European citizens € 1.2 billion/year
TOTAL €4.9 billion/year
Value of hundreds of lives saved each year not captured
Also ignored: additional benefits of weather forecasts on specialised forecasts of weather-dependent
phenomena, i.e. air quality, marine forecasts, dispersion of pollution, etc.

Benefit/cost ratio of EPS/Metop-SG Programme (€ 3 Bn)
Most conservative forecast impact of 8% assumed, as for EPS/Metop
21 years of observation: 2020-2041
BENEFIT AREA LIKELY
Protection of property and infrastructure € 6.0 billion
Added value to the European economy € 45.2billion
Private use by European citizens € 11.5 billion
TOTAL € 63 billion
(2010 values, using discount rate of 4% and assuming GDP growth rate of 2%)
Benefit to cost ratio is in the order of 20

Possible drivers of future evolutions of benefits (1/2)
• Benefits attributable to Metop-SG may increase wrt Metop, as
capabilities will be significantly enhanced
• Conceptually, relative impact should level if all satellites are
equally capable
• Impact study for dual Metop, Suomi-NPP, FY3 of great interest
• Populating the “early morning” orbit with advanced satellites
expected to have highest impact in the short term
• Improvements in absolute forecast accuracy will increase benefits,
possibly massively of performance thresholds are exceeded
• Assessment is a challenge: socio-economic benefits are based
on current forecast
• How to measure elasticity of benefits to forecast performance?

Impact of dual Metop operations

Possible drivers of future evolutions of benefits (2/2)
• Expectation of more frequent high-impact weather events in our
changing climate, increasing further the “avoided costs”
• Increasing vulnerability/sensitiveness of society and economy (e.g.
with the development of renewable energy) to weather
• ….but stagnant/slow economic growth will reduce benefits !
• Improved response of decision-making to forecasts and warnings
• Use of probabilistic forecast will make a difference

Socio-economic benefits of satellite data

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