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Climate Change and Agriculture in Nile basin of Ethiopia: Measuring Economic Impacts and Adaptation Options Meseret Molla Kassahun
Assessment of the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Agriculture in Nile basin of Ethiopia, Ethiopia * Meseret Molla Kassahun and EDRI project Economic Impacts of Climate Change on the Livestock Revenues of Farmers in Nile basin of Ethiopia, Ethiopia EDRI Project   Empirical Economic Assessment Climate Change on the Revenues and Adaptation of Farmers in Nile basin of Ethiopia,Ethiopia EDRI Project Email: [email_address] , Cell-phone:+251911-863052
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Nile basin of Ethiopia
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[object Object],Model Temperature change( 0 C) Current  2050 2100 PCM A2 scenarios 21.25 23.55 26.8 HadCM3 21.25 25.05 30.7 CGCM2 21.25 24.55 29.3 PCM B2 scenarios  21.25 23.55 25.3 HadCM3 21.25 25.05 28.0 CGCM2 21.25 24.15 26.4 Precipitation change (%) Current 2050 2100 CGCM2 A2&B2 scenarios 76.77 66.79 55.27 PCM 76.77 80.61 85.98 HadCM3 76.77 83.68 93.66
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[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The present value of the stream of current and future revenues gives the land values The standard Ricardian model relies on a quadratic formulation of climate and linear formulation of soils and socioeconomic variables
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[object Object],[object Object],Number  Directions Temperature (%) Precipitation (%) 1 Increase  67 18 2 Decrease 4 62 3 Same 29 20 Adaptation Methods % factor % No adaptation method 42 Lack of information 43 Planting tree 21 Lack of money 22 Soil conservations 15 Shortage of labor 16 Different crop varieties  13 Shortage of land 11 Early and late planting 5 Poor potential for irrigation 8 Irrigation 4
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[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],Climate variables Crop Livestock Mixed Temperature -3127.91*  142.4 694.84 Summer -3013.45* -214.20* -118.41**   Winter -3641.00** 228.58***   -665.11*** Spring 2993.45** 40.02 225.23 Fall 533 88 1253.13** Precipitation 147.53** -47.01 -305.13 Summer 8.63 -0.06 -57.59 Winter -102.77*** 134.21*** -354.80* Spring 212.33*** -181.13* 195.06* Fall 29.34 -0.02 -87.8
[object Object],Scenarios Crop Livestock Mixed +2.5   temperature -1781.67 -236.94 -1888..08 Change  net revenue        +5  temperature -2008.8 -431.75 -2040.41 Change  net revenue   -7%  precipitation       Change  net revenue -2148.51 -80.35 -2614.86 -14 % in precipitation   Change  net revenue -2235.75 -197.16 -2824.85
Temperature effect Precipitation effect Model Year Crop livestock Mixed Crop Livestock Mixed Change (%) A2 Scenarios PCM 2050 -79% -34% -97% -103% -156% -107%   2100 -119% -191% -133% -111% -528% -124% HadCM3 2050 -95% -98% -113% -105% -186% -111%   2100 -130% -210% -144% -111% -601% -128% CGCM2 2050 -89% -84% -108% -96% -60% -96%   2100 -127% -202% -141% -105% -310% -112% B2 Scenarios PCM 2050 -79% -34% -97% -103% -156% -107%   2100 -112% -183% -127% -111% -528% -124% HadCM3 2050 -95% -98% -113% -105% -186% -111%   2100 -124% -195% -138% -111% -601% -128% CGCM2 2050 -80% -68% -98% -96% -60% -96%   2100 -114% -190% -129% -105% -310% -112%
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In the near future: Tips for Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMA’S) of Ethiopia By Meseret Molla

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Climate change and agriculture in nile basin of ethiopia

  • 1. Climate Change and Agriculture in Nile basin of Ethiopia: Measuring Economic Impacts and Adaptation Options Meseret Molla Kassahun
  • 2. Assessment of the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Agriculture in Nile basin of Ethiopia, Ethiopia * Meseret Molla Kassahun and EDRI project Economic Impacts of Climate Change on the Livestock Revenues of Farmers in Nile basin of Ethiopia, Ethiopia EDRI Project   Empirical Economic Assessment Climate Change on the Revenues and Adaptation of Farmers in Nile basin of Ethiopia,Ethiopia EDRI Project Email: [email_address] , Cell-phone:+251911-863052
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  • 8. Nile basin of Ethiopia
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  • 23. Temperature effect Precipitation effect Model Year Crop livestock Mixed Crop Livestock Mixed Change (%) A2 Scenarios PCM 2050 -79% -34% -97% -103% -156% -107%   2100 -119% -191% -133% -111% -528% -124% HadCM3 2050 -95% -98% -113% -105% -186% -111%   2100 -130% -210% -144% -111% -601% -128% CGCM2 2050 -89% -84% -108% -96% -60% -96%   2100 -127% -202% -141% -105% -310% -112% B2 Scenarios PCM 2050 -79% -34% -97% -103% -156% -107%   2100 -112% -183% -127% -111% -528% -124% HadCM3 2050 -95% -98% -113% -105% -186% -111%   2100 -124% -195% -138% -111% -601% -128% CGCM2 2050 -80% -68% -98% -96% -60% -96%   2100 -114% -190% -129% -105% -310% -112%
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  • 28. In the near future: Tips for Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMA’S) of Ethiopia By Meseret Molla