Sean Coughlan\'s presentation from \'Achieving Excellence\' Event 3-5th October 2011

1. (Why) Is a project an aircrash
waiting to be investigated?
Sean Coughlan
DH Gateway Programme Director, East of England
bos consulting ltd

2. bos consulting ltd

3. Lituanica was an Bellanca CH-300 Pacemaker airplane flown
from Chicago by Lithuanian pilots Stepona Darius and Stasys
Girenas in 1933. After successfully flying 6,411 km, it crashed,
due to undetermined circumstances, 650 km from its
destination, Kaunus, Lithuania
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4. Flying
• An aircrash is something to be avoided
• Preventative maintenance is routine to reduce the
probability of an aircrash
• Preventative maintenance is mandatory
• Pilots and groundcrew are sensitive to variations
from the norm in flight or inspection
• After maintenance or repair, the technician sits in on
the proving flight
• If there is a crash, there is a full investigation lessons
are learnt
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5. Project Delivery
• A project failure is something to be avoided
• Corrective proaction to reduce the probability of a
delivery failure is not routine
• Corrective proaction is not mandatory
• PMs and project teams are often insensitive to
variations from the norm in delivery
• PMs and project teams are rarely held personally
accountable for failures
• If there is a failure of delivery, there is rarely any
investigation of note and lessons are forgotten
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6. Everyone is a Project Manager
• When I “teach” Project Management, I find there is an
expectation that I will reveal secrets of the da Vinci code. But
everyone is a Project Manager, instinctively. The problem
arises when people forget this simple truth, or when they
think that this truth is sufficient.
Meno proffers a paradox, "And how will you inquire into a thing when you
are wholly ignorant of what it is? Even if you happen to bump into it, how
will you know it is the thing you didn't know?” Socrates responds to this
paradox with a story according to which souls have learned everything
prior to inhabiting human body. (Plato: The Meno)
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7. The Elements
• Understanding the objective
• Sequencing
• Estimating
• Probabilistic assessments
• Consequential actions
• Awareness of stakeholder importance
.....so how do you get to work?
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8. Axioms
1. All Project Managers lie
(..and the Mungo variation:
All Project Managers lie all the time)
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9. A Simple Model
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10. Another Simple Model
Test &
Reqts Design Build
Accept
Control
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11. Axioms
1. All Project Managers lie
2. A badly planned project takes three times as long as it is
calculated; a well planned project takes twice as long
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12. Common Causes of Failure
All together now......
1. Lack of clear links between project and organisation’s priorities
and success criteria
2. Lack of clear leadership/ownership
3. Lack of clear stakeholder engagement
4. Lack of skills and proven approach to PM & RAM
5. Failure to break job into manageable steps
6. Driven by price rather than long-term VfM*
7. Lack of understanding of and contact with senior supplier(s)
8. Lack of effective project team integration
Who takes these seriously, and takes steps to
mitigate them?
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13. Why bother?
• Think SMART
• Causes lie in failures of: rather think:
• Specification S
• Ownership
• Participation T
• Skills
U
• Planning
• Costing P
• Supplier management
• Delivery integration I
• Team management
D
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14. Why bother?
• Common causes of failure in projects of reasonable size and
complexity also are of reasonable size and complexity
Causes lie in failures of: Think SMART, rather
•Specification think STUPID
•Ownership Specific
•Participation
Time-bound / Timely
•Skills
•Planning Understandable
•Costing Planned
•Supplier management Innovation / Imagination
•Delivery integration Deliverable
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15. Axioms
1. All Project Managers lie
2. A badly planned project takes three times as long as it is
calculated; a well planned project takes twice as long
3. Do not try to pick your nose with your elbow
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16. The Sad Story of Project Risk
Risk is the centre of gravity for the Project
The single greatest lack of control arises
from a failure to consider and deal with risk
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17. Axioms
1. All Project Managers lie
2. A badly planned project takes three times as long as it is
calculated; a well planned project takes twice as long
3. Do not try to pick your nose with your elbow
4. Do not confuse cause and consequence
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18. S/he should have gone to Specsavers!
The sins of deliberate blindness
• Available information is ignored
• Executives are surrounded by people desperate to
please - the lure and rewards of conformity grow
• The focus is on money, not ethical considerations
• No accurate way of measuring systemic risk
• When managers say they want to hear bad news,
most do not believe them (nor do the managers
themselves?)
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19. Axioms
1. All Project Managers lie
2. A badly planned project takes three times as long as it is
calculated; a well planned project takes twice as long
3. Do not try to pick your nose with your elbow
4. Do not confuse cause and consequence
5. If something can go wrong, it probably already has. And the
corollary: If everything is going well, you have obviously
overlooked something
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20. Root Causes
The Common Causes of Failure are not just eightfold. In looking for
weaknesses in projects, just consider the plans.
• A dominant cause of failure in organisations carrying out multiple projects
with shared resources is the unavoidable conflict about when (and what)
to begin ...... cf ADD
• A dominant cause of failure in the execution of projects is a planning
process based on (several) erroneous assumptions:
– Placing protection time (contingency) in every task will lead to
optimised project performance
– Planning tools will properly address resource dependencies, and
account for task iteration variability and the effects of integration
pathways.
A test you can try at home:
Take an activity in a project plan, extend its duration by, say a year. See
what happens to the end date.
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21. Back to the model
• Planning starts with:
 Complete clarity of the intended outcome / objective
 Knowledge of the acceptance criteria
 Understanding of how the deliverable is to be assessed
• Planning is corrupted by:
 Ambiguity
 Imprecision
 Selfishness
 Change without control
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22. Controlling - Governance
• Principles#
– Roles, responsibilities and performance criteria for the
governance of project management are clearly defined
– All projects have an approved plan with authorisation points at
which the business case is reviewed and approved
– The board decides when the independent scrutiny of projects
and project management systems is required, and implements
such scrutiny accordingly
– There are clearly defined criteria for reporting project status
and for the escalation of risks and issues to the levels required
# Source APM, 4 of the 11 principles extracted
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23. Axioms
1. All Project Managers lie
2. A badly planned project takes three times as long as it is
calculated; a well planned project takes twice as long
3. Do not try to pick your nose with your elbow
4. Do not confuse cause and consequence
5. If something can go wrong, it probably already has. And the
corollary: If everything is going well, you have obviously
overlooked something
6. People loathe reporting as it so manifestly shows their lack
of progress
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24. Tools and Toolkits
• “Have you chosen an Project Manager?”...“Yes. We are lucky:
s/he has just finished a PRINCE2 course.”
• “I use Excel to plan my project”
• “The critical path shows me the most important tasks.”
• “You cannot get rid of the consultants: we would lose all their
knowledge.”
• “the Project Board is usually attended by 18 to 20
stakeholders.”
• Issue#3: 20% of GEH activity is from Blankshire & Talltown
• MSP, IAS, OBC, IAAP, PQT, JSI, SOC, PID, SOR, GMPP, PAR, APM
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25. Review/Turn-around
• Hypotheses and Expectations
• Guidance and proformae
• Experience
Anticipation Realisation
• Dispassion Preparation
• Integrity
Frustration or
•
Recommendation
Evidence Acclamation
• Conclusions
• Recommendations
bos consulting ltd With apologies to “Five Boys” chocolate

26. Reactions
• Range from enthusiastic gratitude through indifference to
sullen disappointment and outright anger.
• Is the following scenario possible?
– PM to SRO: “Everything is in hand, we are on course”
– Reviewer: “You have the a number of problems”
– PM to SRO: “Inadequate review, it did not see the truth!”
– SRO thinks: “I cannot admit Reviewer is right as I chose PM
and believed what I was told. I must not look foolish”
– SRO to Reviewer: “I am not happy with your findings.”
– Conclusion: Nothing is done.
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27. Axioms
1. All Project Managers lie
2. A badly planned project takes three times as long as it is
calculated; a well planned project takes twice as long
3. Do not try to pick your nose with your elbow
4. Do not confuse cause and consequence
5. If something can go wrong, it probably already has. And the
corollary: If everything is going well, you have obviously
overlooked something
6. People loathe reporting as it so manifestly shows their lack
of progress
7. For an individual, the prime directive is self-survival
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28. Preventing the Aircrash
• A sensible SRO (or similar) to seek a review
• Selection of experienced deliverer
• A short-sharp review
Preparation Anticipation Realisation
Frustration or
Recommendation
Acclamation
• Strong, evidenced case for change
• Acceptance/delivery criteria
• A confident, believable delivery proposal
• Managing /revising the delivery team
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29. So why is a project like an aircrash
waiting to be investigated.?
• The possibility of an aircrash is enough for
mitigating action to be triggered as the
consequence could be severe
• Project failures provoke comment and cries of
shock-horror. But what then? Usually nothing
of even less.
• So the answer is: It is not like an aircrash......
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30. Axioms
1. All PMs lie (all the time)
2. A badly planned project takes three times as long as it is
calculated; a well planned project takes twice as long
3. Do not try to pick your nose with your elbow
4. Do not confuse cause with consequence
5. If something can go wrong, it probably already has. And the
corollary: If everything is going well, you have obviously
overlooked something
6. People loathe reporting as it so manifestly shows their lack
of progress
7. For an individual, the prime directive is self-survival
8. We drive into the future using only our rear-view mirror
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31. bos consulting ltd