9. Change of temperature Estimated change in temperature (ºC) for Nepal (Yogacharya and Shreshtha 1997). 2.9 (0.5) 3.2 (1.0) 3.0 (0.7) 2100 1.6 (0.4) 1.8 (0.6) 1.7 (0.4) 2050 1.1 (0.2) 1.3 (0.4) 1.2 (0.3) 2030 JJF DJF Annual average Baseline Temperature change mean (ºC) (standard deviation) Year
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14. Impacts of climate change Drier and prolonged summer? Hotter? Wetter? Hotter? Wet area Drier summer? Warmer? Drier? Hotter? Dry area Cold Areas /Warm-temperate Hot areas / Tropics / Sub-tropics
15. HOW IS CROP PRODUCTION DETERMINED CO 2 Radiation Temperature Plant character -physiology -phenology -artchitecture. Water Nutrients Soils Weeds Pests Diseases Pollutants Defining factors Limiting factors Reducing factors PRODUCTION LEVEL Actual Attainable Potential PRODUCTION SITUATION (Modified from Lovenstein et al., 1995)
16. The optimum range of air temperature for successful growth of a crop. Source: Hunsigi and Krishna 1998; Balasubramaniyan and Palaniappan, 2001. Medium 25-30 10 35 Soybean Medium 22-28 18 33 Groundnut Low 27-32 12 40 Cotton Medium 23-30 13 38 Orange Low 18-25 10 35 Tomato Medium 17 10 24 Cabbage Low 18-25 - - Sunflower Medium 15-20 10 27 Beans Very high 17 10 23 Peas High 27 16 38 Banana High 22-30 10 45 Sugarcane Very high 12-20 10 30 Potato Medium 15-20 5 35 Wheat Very high 25 10 45 Maize High 22-30 12 48 Rice Effect of humidity Average air temp ( o C) Minimum air temp. ( o C) Maximum air temp. ( o C) Crops
17. Comparison of C 3 and C 4 species Does this change affect plant growth? 25 º C 10 º C C 4 Species 15 º C 0 º C C 3 Species Optimum temp. for assimilation Minimum temp. for assimilation Crops
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20. Impact of increased temperature on C 3 and C 4 species Source: Proc. Crop. Soc. Japan 31, 315-322 C 4 C 3
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22. Effect of temperature on grain yield of rice, India. Sensitivity of rice yield to atmospheric temperature changes between – 6 _C and + 6_C as simulated by the CERES-Rice model (Saseendran et al ., 2000)
23. Effects of rainfall on grain yield of rice, India. Sensitivity of rice yield to rainfall receipt as simulated by the CERES-Rice model (Saseendran et al ., 2000)
24. Effect of climate change in rice yield, India. Comparison between average rice yields at different locations under Climate Change Scenario (cc scenario) and baseline climate (control) scenario. Yield simulated under cc scenario is expressed as percentage departure from the control. (Saseendran et al ., 2000) Δ Yield with projected rain fall, CO 2 conc temperature. Δ Yield with projected temperature
32. Sury and Saraswati making crosses between wild rice and traditional varieties to develop varieties adaptable to swampy areas of Begnas, Kaski. Wild rice ( O rufipogon ) at 1150m
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36. Climate change adaptation C3 or C4, improved or local variety based against monitory, nutrition and resource use Cleverly select species and variety to fit farm plots through an informed manner Crop cover, introduce legumes, green manure, inter-cropping, Green marketing, carbon sequestration, Organic agriculture could be good option –nutrition and food security, Recycling, Reuse, Reduce, and Regenerate R4 Optimum use of synthetic and organic fertilizers, Avoid flooding, and promote intermittent flooding Synthetic fertilizers emit methane FYMompost also release methane – ground water contamination Select right modern or local variety Some traditional varieties release more methane
37. Climate change adaptation Recognition, crop insurance and pension scheme and priority under government program Attract trained and educated people Train and empower producers Agriculture hardly retains educated and trained human resources - disincentives to do agriculture Promote knowledge and science based agriculture adaptable to local conditions Promotion of local and scientific knowledge based agriculture Decrease subsidies with increased commercial agriculture and vice versa Policy incentives provisioned for both modern and organic agriculture Two-way, urban-rural demand -supply strategy Subsistence and traditional agriculture supports livelihoods
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