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The Outlook for EU Agriculture Challenges, constraints and opportunities to productivity The cereals sector  COPA COGECA - 29 June 2011
Content   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA  –  29 June 2011 Cereal sector -  Constraints and opportunities to productivity
Content   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA  –  29 June 2011 Cereal sector -  Constraints and opportunities to productivity
The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA  –  29 June 2011 Cereal sector -  Constraints and opportunities to productivity More people – Less arable land   We must produce more food per hectar World population (in Bn) Arable area (in ha per person) 2030 1998
The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA  –  29 June 2011 Cereal sector -  Constraints and opportunities to productivity Agricultural areas in EU 15
The global economic growth is expected (GDP) to be 3,3 % p.a. towards 2019   Canada  China  EU  India  Japan  Latin  Mexico Middle  South  USA   Amerika    East  Corea The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA  –  29 June 2011 Cereal sector -  Constraints and opportunities to productivity
The challenges  ahead ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA  –  29 June 2011 Cereal sector -  Constraints and opportunities to productivity
Content   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA  –  29 June 2011 Cereal sector -  Constraints and opportunities to productivity
Constraints and uncertainties  toward increased productivity  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA  –  29 June 2011 Cereal sector -  Constraints and opportunities to productivity ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Increased market volatility in Europe Source: Weekly price development milling wheat, Matif The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA  –  29 June 2011 Cereal sector -  Constraints and opportunities to productivity
The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA  –  29 June 2011 Cereal sector -  Constraints and opportunities to productivity Comparisons of phosphate inputs and offtakes for UK wheat, not accounting  for any manure inputs
Financial crisis Lower productivity Imbalanced  Nutrition (P,K) The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA  –  29 June 2011 Cereal sector -  Constraints and opportunities to productivity Impact of the economic situation on productivity
Content   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA  –  29 June 2011 Cereal sector -  Constraints and opportunities to productivity
Source: University of Copenhagen   Increase in productivity - from where? The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA  –  29 June 2011 Cereal sector -  Constraints and opportunities to productivity
Content   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA  –  29 June 2011 Cereal sector -  Constraints and opportunities to productivity
Recommendations:  Good Fertilizer Practice towards a more productive agriculture  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA  –  29 June 2011 Cereal sector -  Constraints and opportunities to productivity
Precision farming tools towards Good Agricultural Practice  Software and crop monitoring tools help to calculate  the right nutrient rate and apply it at the right time => these tools helped to improve Nutrient Use Efficiency The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA  –  29 June 2011 Cereal sector -  Constraints and opportunities to productivity
The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA  –  29 June 2011 Cereal sector -  Constraints and opportunities to productivity Applying Sustainable Farming principles
Productivity criteria  / indicator should be  measurable : Nitrogen Use Efficiency as an indicator  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA  –  29 June 2011 Cereal sector -  Constraints and opportunities to productivity
The N itrogen  Use Efficiency in Europe Source: own calculation based on FAO and Fertilizers Europe data N use efficiency (NUE in %) = (N removal/N application) x 100 The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA  –  29 June 2011 Cereal sector -  Constraints and opportunities to productivity
Content   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA  –  29 June 2011 Cereal sector -  Constraints and opportunities to productivity
CAP post 2013: A policy opportunity ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA  –  29 June 2011 Cereal sector -  Constraints and opportunities to productivity
Content   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA  –  29 June 2011 Cereal sector -  Constraints and opportunities to productivity
Fertilizers Europe  forecast consumption 2011/2021   (reference 2007) - 13 .6% -  11.3 % >> slow return to 2005/2007 level - 0 .9% The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA  –  29 June 2011 Cereal sector -  Constraints and opportunities to productivity
The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA  –  29 June 2011 Cereal sector -  Constraints and opportunities to productivity without fertilizer with fertilizer Thank you for your attention! [email_address] any question?

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Christian Palliere

  • 1. The Outlook for EU Agriculture Challenges, constraints and opportunities to productivity The cereals sector COPA COGECA - 29 June 2011
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4. The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity More people – Less arable land We must produce more food per hectar World population (in Bn) Arable area (in ha per person) 2030 1998
  • 5. The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity Agricultural areas in EU 15
  • 6. The global economic growth is expected (GDP) to be 3,3 % p.a. towards 2019 Canada China EU India Japan Latin Mexico Middle South USA Amerika East Corea The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10. Increased market volatility in Europe Source: Weekly price development milling wheat, Matif The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  • 11. The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity Comparisons of phosphate inputs and offtakes for UK wheat, not accounting for any manure inputs
  • 12. Financial crisis Lower productivity Imbalanced Nutrition (P,K) The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity Impact of the economic situation on productivity
  • 13.
  • 14. Source: University of Copenhagen Increase in productivity - from where? The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17. Precision farming tools towards Good Agricultural Practice Software and crop monitoring tools help to calculate the right nutrient rate and apply it at the right time => these tools helped to improve Nutrient Use Efficiency The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  • 18. The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity Applying Sustainable Farming principles
  • 19.
  • 20. The N itrogen Use Efficiency in Europe Source: own calculation based on FAO and Fertilizers Europe data N use efficiency (NUE in %) = (N removal/N application) x 100 The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24. Fertilizers Europe forecast consumption 2011/2021 (reference 2007) - 13 .6% - 11.3 % >> slow return to 2005/2007 level - 0 .9% The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  • 25. The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity without fertilizer with fertilizer Thank you for your attention! [email_address] any question?