What is the TPP? What is new in the TPP? Mexico and the TPP: challenges and opportunities

1. Trans-Pacific Partnership
Agreement
Implications for Mexico and the region
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2. Objectives of the presentation
I. What is the TPP?
II. What is new in the TPP?
III. Mexico and the TPP: challenges and
opportunities
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3. 1. What is the TPP?
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4. The evolution of the TPP
2005 P4
2010 TPP
2012-13
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5. The TPP seeks:
Create a platform for a potential economic
integration of the Asia-Pacific region (FTAAP).
Design an inclusive agreement to foster
economic growth and employment.
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6. 6
Asia Pacific a priority for the US
President Obama in its speech in November 2009 in Tokyo
As an Asia-Pacific nation, the United States expects to
be involved in the discussions that shape the future of
this region and to participate fully in appropriate
organizations as they are established and evolve.
 The risk of being excluded explains the decision of its
participation in the regional integration.
 The TPP is a political strategy to increase the presence
of US in the Asia Pacific.
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7. United States lost influence in the region
• End of Cold War
• China’s new
influence
• Emergence of an
exclusive regional
integration in Asia
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8. New TPP Members – What about
China?
• Chinese perspective: US effort at containing China’s influence
• US perspective: Creating a rule-based framework in Asia
• Economic modeling suggests China will be hurt by TPP, but not by
very much
• Consensus that China is not ready for TPP-style commitments at
this time; but other, more narrowly focused FTAs under discussion
by China
• China’s strategy on FTAs complicated by numerous territorial
disputes with Asian neighbors, other areas of geopolitical distrust
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9. 2. What is new in the TPP?
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10. FTA with high standards
1. The P4 opted to follow high standard without
exclusion of any sector (agriculture included).
2. It is still open to new members
3. The TPP gathers countries willing to assume
important commitments for liberalization.
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11. What does high standards mean?
• Interest in new topics in the US’ FTA.:
• Labor rights,
• Environmental norms,
• Intellectual property protection
• investment
• New “horizontal topics":
• Regulatory coherence,
• SMEs,
• Competitiveness,
• Development,
• Regional integration,
• Supply chains,
• State enterprises 28/06/2014
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12. Negotiating groups
1 Market Access - Industrial
2 Market Access - Agriculture
3 Market Access - Textile
4 Rules of Origin
5 Trade Facilitation
6 Sanitary and phytosanitary measures
7 Technical barriers to trade
8 Trade defense
9 Government procurement
10 Intellectual property
11 Competition policy
12 Trade in services
13 Financial services
14 Telecommunications
15 Electronic commerce
16 Mobility of persons
17 Investment
18 Environment
19 Labor
20 Institutional matters and dispute settlement
21 Cooperation
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23
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Horizontal topics
State enterprises
SMEs
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13. 3. Mexico and the TPP
Challenges and opportunities
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14. Mexico in TPP
 Initially Mexico refused to be part. Why?
1. PAN governments adopted private sector
protectionist agenda.
2. Difficulties to approve new dispositions with Japan,
Colombia and the FTA with Peru
3. Mixed signals on trade.
 What changed? US and Canada participation.
Only requested to become part in the APEC
Honolulu Summit in November 2011 .
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15. New opportunity in TPP’s expansion
• Mexico is member of the
negotiations since
October 2012.
• Mexico cannot
renegotiate the
agreements reached in
previous rounds.
• Mexico will have to resolve problems which have prevented
to negotiate other agreements: agriculture (Australia and
New Zealand); textiles, clothes and shoes (Malaysia and
Vietnam); disciplines in state sectors; intellectual property,
and regulatory convergence.
NAFTA
82%
LAM
7%
Europe
5%
Asia
4%
Other
2%
Mexican Exports by region (%, 2011)
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16. Mexico: tariff peaks, 2012
HS Product Category
Tariff (ad
valorem %)
0207 Meat an edible offal, of the poultry, chilled or frozen
Agricultural
234
0209
Pig fat, free of lean meat, and poultry fat, not
rendered… 254
0406 Cheese and curd 125
0701 Potatoes, fresh or chilled 245
0901 Coffee, whether or not roasted or decaffeinated… 72
1003 Barley 115.2
1107 Malt, whether or not roasted 158
1516 Animal or vegetable fats and oils 254
1702 Other sugars
210
Glucose and glucose syrup…
Other Fructose and fructose syrup…
1001 Wheat 67
2402
Cigars, cheroots, cigarillos and cigarettes of
tobaco… 67
2403 other manufactured tobacco… 67
61-63
Several made-up textile articles, clothing
accesories and articles of apparel
Textiles and
clothes 20-30
8701-03 Motor vehicles (tariff lines for used vehicles) Used vehicles 35
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17. Together the TPP countries imported more than
US $5 trillion in 2013
Source: Own elaboration with information from ITC Trade Map
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Imports of the TPP countries (US billions)
US Japan Canada Mexico Australia New Zealand
Viet Nam Brunei Peru Chile Malaysia Singapore
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18. Mexico’s preferential access to TPP members
Source: own elaboration with information from ITC, Trade Map and WTO
Country
Imports
(2013 US B)
Share in TPP
Preferential
Access
Market size
NFN
applied
Tariff 2012
EE.UU. 2328.32863 45.47% Yes
US $3.741
trillion
(75.24%)
-
Japan 833.166061 16.27% Yes
Canada 461.799509 9.02% Yes -
Chile 79.616353 1.55% Yes -
Peru 37.977041 0.74% Yes -
Australia 232.481271 4.54% No
US$999
Billion
(24.76%)
2.7
Singapore 373.212237 7.29% No 0.2
Malaysia 206.250855 4.03% No 6.5
New
Zealand 39.221545 0.77%
No 2.05
Viet Nam 143.908622 2.81% No 9.48
Brunei D. 3.666165 0.07%
No 2.5 (2011)
Mexico 381.210169 7.44% - -
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19. TPP will help diversify Mexico’s exports markets
Country HS Main products exported by Mexico Value US th.
% of total export
flow with the
country
Vietnam
85177011Parts of thelephone sets 7,890 12.3
03037999Other fish, frozen, excluding fish fillets 4,473 7.0
39202099
Other plates, sheets, film, foil and strips of polymers of
propylene
4,464 7.0
Malaysia
85171201Telephones for cellular networks 18,242 14.7
26011201Agglomerated iron ores 11,822 9.5
87032301
Motors cars of a cylinder cap. between 1500-3000 cc
10,476 8.4
Singapore
85171201Telephones for cellular networks 146,900 24.8
85423199Processors and controllers 91,950 15.5
84717001
Storage units for automatic data processing machines
38,571 6.5
Australia
26070001Lead ores and concentrates 214,752 24.0
22030001Beer made from malt 100,491 11.2
84099199
Parts suitable for use with spark-ignition combustion
piston engines
55,048 6.2
New
Zealand
26080001Zinc ores and concentrates 21,201 23.1
22030001Beer made from malt 13,213 14.4
87032101
Other vehicles, with spark-ignition combustion piston
engine
12,138 13.228/06/2014
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20. … and diversify import sources
Country HS Main products imported by Mexico
Value US
th.
% of total import
flow with the
country
Tariff
%
Vietnam
03042999 Other fish fillets 101,842 10.5 -
64041199 Sport footwear with outer soles 52,077 5.4 30
64029902 Other footwear with outer soles 48,379 5.0 30
Malaysia
85423199 Processors and controllers 1,626,630 29.0 Ex.
84717001
Storage units for automatic data processing
machines
381,110 6.8 Ex.
85423999 Other Electronic integrated circuits 360,919 6.4 16
Singapore
84717001
Storage units for automatic data processing
machines
199,081 16.8 Ex.
85423999 Other Electronic integrated circuits 123,027 10.4 16
85423199 Processors and controllers 87,752 7.4 Ex.
Australia
27011201
Briquettes, ovoids and similar solid fuels
from coal
539,060 54.8 Ex.
76012099 Aluminum alloys 71,457 7.3 16
26070001 Lead ores and concentrates 53,279 5.4 Ex.
New
Zealand
04059001
Other butter and other fats and oils derived
from milk 119,682
27.5 Ex.
04022101 Milw and cream not containing added sugar 111,404 25.6 63
04021001
Milk in powder, granules or other solid form 39,137
9.0 63
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21. TPP Opportunities for Mexico
• New export opportunities for Mexican products such as
automobiles and auto parts, steel, electronics, cosmetics in
one of the most dynamic economic zones
• Investment. TPP membership will allow Mexico to remain an
attractive location for FDI (Mexico is 6th FDI recipient
among emerging markets)
• Domestic reforms. opportunity to push for reforms that will
allow Mexico to grow at higher rates (energy, telecomm,
transportation, banking, fiscal)
• Institutional strengthening. Strengthen and improve its trade
policy framework.
• Build trading blocs with NAFTA, Asia, LAM
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22. Challenges for Mexico
• Mexico will face again some problematic issues with
Asian countries that impede some bilateral treaties
with Singapore and Australia
Key Issues
• Agricultura: Australia, Nueva Zelanda
• Textiles, prendas de vestir y calzado Malasia,
Vietnam
• Relation with CHINA
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23. 4. Conclusions
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24. Conclusiones Del P4 al TPP
• Importance of the agreements is in its potential: South
Korea, Panama, Thailand, Indonesia
• Way to finish the paralysis in the WTO
• The most ambitious effort, together with the Trans-
Atlantic Agreement that is happening at the moment
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