Talk given at ISI Directors' Offsite, describing the research agenda for the Center for Complex Energy Systems.

1. Applying ISI Capabilities to Energy Challenges Gordon Roesler ISI Directors’ Offsite 12-13 January 2010

2. The Century of Scarcity 2 Food Water Environment Energy

3. ISI’s Strengths Fit a Gap in Energy Research “Supersystems”, system-of-systems Physical models of very complex distribution system, i.e. “the grid” (smart or not) Machine learning/artificial intelligence for improved real-time control Communications network(s) interwoven with physical network Fault-tolerant real-time computing Decision support and system engineering Data mining Pre-deployment: complex decision space Post-deployment: operator support, visualization, pattern recognition 3

4. Grid reliability: a deep intellectual challenge 2003: Local conditions cascaded to blackout 50 million customers dropped 61.8 GW power tripped off Economic cost $4-10B General causes Cascading line tripping by dynamic line loading often leads to unsuccessful line restoration attempts Cascading equipment tripping by overexcitation Loss of synchronism due to angle instability Oscillatory instability causing self-exciting inter-area oscillations Exceeding allowed frequency range (over and under frequency) due to imbalance in active power between generation and load Voltage instability / collapse 4

5. ISI Opportunities to Enhance Grid Reliability 2003 Outage Task Force selected recommendations “prudent expenditures for…reliability (including investments in new technologies)” “DoE should expand…research programs on reliability-related tools and technologies” “Improve…training and certification” “Better real-time tools for operators and reliability coordinators” “Improve quality of system modeling data” “Require use of time-synchronized data recorders” “Clarify criteria for identification of operationally critical facilities” “Develop corporate-level IT security governance and strategies” “Improve IT forensic and diagnostic capabilities” 5

6. Phasor measurement units: the holy grail? 40 PMUs installed as of 2005 SCE installing 70 more over next 18 months (goal: one at each substation) Objective: perfect knowledge of phases  linear transform to determine loads and sources Too few PMUs  under-determined problem Algorithms for real-time control not developed 6 line GPS As of 2005 ISI’s capabilities in data mining, modeling, and artificial intelligence could advance PMU use for real-time control

7. Human issues related to grid reliability Operators were ineffective at all stages of 2003 blackout Inadequate visibility into long-range state Displays and indications confusing Inadequate training and simulation Increase in automation to date at grid control centers has increased operator overload Need to distil information Build machine learning into warning systems 50% of transmission & distribution workforce is eligible for retirement NOW Knowledge capture Training of new work force Automated backups 7

8. Opportunities in discussion with potential sponsors Grid reliability Utility discussions, may grow to regional alliance Disaster planning and recovery Possible partnership with CalTech (earthquake warning) Possible role in contingency planning for wave demo site Renewables Congressional (wave energy) Buoyant energy storage (with U. Hawaii, conceptual) Analyze impact on grid stability Workforce training, operator assistance Utility discussions 8

9. Formal proposals Agent-based control of next-generation Naval ship electric plants ONR Energy BAA Teamed with West Virginia U. Energy distribution for autonomous maritime surveillance DARPA STO Develops SPIDR in new domain 9 Missions PM, SMEs UUVs Optimization preferences harvesting N best feasible designs Existing Optimization Engine Storage, structure, etc. Rules and constraints

10. USC University Park Campus Smart Grid Project $120M project led by LADWP, with participation of: USC Energy Institute: overall university lead; demand response; behavioral studies ISI: cyber security; demand response; modeling; project coordination UCLA: electric vehicle aspects 90 day preliminary planning phase commenced Jan. 1 10