Presentation made on the 15th November 2010 in New Delhi, India in the office of NBPGR by Andy Jarvis.

1. © Neil Palmer (CIAT) Plant genetic resource: Threats and opportunities arising from climate change Andy Jarvis, Julián Ramírez, Nora Castañeda, Nigel Maxted, Robert Hijmans and Jacob Van Etten

2. Content Some background on climate change and what it means for agriculture Focus on crop wild relatives: threats and opportunities The CGIAR-ESSP lead Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security global program of research Concluding remarks

3. Climate change is not new…but is accelerating

4. Global Climate Models (GCMs) 21 global climate models in the world, based on atmospheric sciences, chemistry, biology, and a touch of astrology Run from the past to present to calibrate, then into the future Run using different emissions scenarios

7. Temperatures rise….

8. Changes in rainfall…

9. The Impacts on Crop Suitability

11. For example, US maize, soy, cotton yields fall rapidly when exposed to temperatures >30˚CSchlenker and Roberts 2009 PNAS

12. Average change in suitability for all crops in 2050s

13. Impacts of climate change to food security Lobell et al. looked at impacts of climate change on food security Cassava clearly highlighted as suffering least among many staples Particular opportunities as an alternative crop for southern Africa

14. Crop wild relatives - Thefoundation of agriculture

15. Wild relatives of crops Includeboth progenitor species and closelyrelatedspecies of cultivatedcrops Faba beans – 0 wild relatives Potato – 172 wild relativespecies Increasinglyuseful in breeding, especiallyforbioticresistance

16. Photos from Jose Valls, CENARGEN

17. Why conserve CWR diversity? Use!! 234 papers cited Maxted and Kell, 2009 Use: 39% pest resistance; 17% abiotic stress; 13% yield increase Citations: 2% <1970; 13% 1970s; 15% 1980s; 32% 1990s; 38% >1999

18. Wild relative species A. batizocoi - 12 germplasm accessions A. cardenasii - 17 germplasm accessions A. diogoi - 5 germplasm accessions Florunner, with no root-knot nematode resistance COAN, with population density of root-knot nematodes >90% less than in Florunner

19. Grassy stunt virus in rice Resistance from Oryzanivaragenes (Barclay 2004) Potato late blight Resistance from Solanumdemissun and S. stoloniferum National potato council (2003)

20. Nevo and Chen 2010 Adaptation to abiotic stress

21. Quality traits

22. Post harvest deterioration - Cassava Courtesy of Emmanuel Okogbenin

24. Lycopersicon chmielewskii sweetening tomato US $ 5-8million per year (Iltis, 1988)

25. Various CWR of wheat provide disease resistance to wheat and US benefits by US $ 50m per year (Witt, 1985)Courtesy of Nigel Maxted

26. Threats

27. Impact of climate change on CWR Assessment of shifts in distribution range under climate change Wild potatoes Wild African Vigna Wild peanuts

29. Latitudinal and Elevational Shifts Peanuts Shift south and upwards

30. Latitudinal and Elevational Shifts Potatoes Shift upwards

31. Summary Impacts 16-22% (depending on migration scenario) of these species predicted to go extinct Most species losing over 50% of their range size Wild peanuts were the most affected group, with 24 to 31 of 51 species projected to go extinct For wild potato, 7 to 13 of 108 species were predicted to go extinct

32. Wild relative species A. batizocoi - 12 germplasm accessions A. cardenasii - 17 germplasm accessions A. diogoi - 5 germplasm accessions Florunner, with no root-knot nematode resistance COAN, with population density of root-knot nematodes >90% less than in Florunner

33. Impact of Climate Change – Wild Peanuts

34. More immediate threats….

35. Concentration of the natural distributiononthearea of mostintensivecattle-raising and cropproductionactivity in Brazil has notbeen a seriousproblem, in thepast, forpreservation of local wild species of Arachis, buttheadvance of themodern, mechanizedagriculture, in thelastfewdecades, and speciallythe use of herbicideshaveimposedseverepressureon wild populations. Thisisalso true for Eastern Bolivia, wheremanyspecies of sectionArachisoccur. Adapted from Nature, v.466, p.554-556, 2010 Slide provided by Jose Valls, CENARGEN

36. Slide provided by Jose Valls, CENARGEN

37. © Neil Palmer (CIAT) Howwellconserved are crop wild relatives?Gap Analysis

38. Why Gap Analysis? Tool to assess crop and crop wild relative genetic and geographical diversity Allows detecting incomplete species collections as well as defining which species should be collected and where these collections should be focused Assesses the current extent at which the ex situ conservation system is correctly holding the genetic diversity of a particular genepool

39. To know what you don’t have, you first need to know what you do have

40. The visible global system

43. Herbarium versus germplasm: Geographic

44. Herbarium versus germplasm: Taxon

45. Conserved ex situ richness versus potential

46. Priorities: Geographic and taxonomic

48. Wild Vigna collecting priorities Spatial analysis on current conserved materials *Gaps* in current collections Definition and prioritisation of collecting areas 8 100x100km cells to complete collections of 23 wild Vigna priority species

50. 18 known registers of the plant

51. 2 germplasm accessions conserved in the USDA

52. Genetically unknown

54. Habitat: Forest Margins

55. Road Access

56. Priority Areas for Collection

59. 160 seeds conserved ex situ2002

60. Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security: A major new global program to rise to the challenge

61. Improved Environmental Benefits Improved Livelihoods Improved Food Security Trade-offs and synergies Climate Variability and Change Current agricultural, NRM & food systems 1. Adaptation for confronting climate risk 2. Adaptation for progressive climate change 3. Mitigation for reducing GHG emissions, enhancing carbon-storage and reducing poverty 4. Diagnosis and vulnerability assessment for making strategic choices Adapted agricultural, NRM & food systems

62. Major research questions to be addressed: What priority genepools for climate change adaptation are threatened, and how can they be conserved to ensure their continuing availability? How do cultural practices exploit this diversity and how can farmers’ knowledge be used to help identify landraces and crop varieties suited for specific climatic conditions? How can access to crop diversity local farmers be facilitated through enhanced seed systems or other mechanisms? How does on farm crop diversity in production systems contribute to maintaining productivity in the face of progressive climate change and increased variability in climate?

63. Conclusions Major challenges from climate change: can agriculture stand up to a 2 degree warmer world? Plant genetic resources threatened by climate change, but also a key element of the solution Crop wild relative use on the increase, but poorly conserved ex situ and under threat in situ Need for a major collecting effort to fill gaps, and explore novel genetic approaches to further stimulate their use

64. a.jarvis@cgiar.org