1. Cashew: the winner cash crop
in W-Africa under a changing
climate
Eric Rahn1, Peter Läderach2, Armando Martinez2, Narioski Castro2
September 18th
1International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, Colombia
2International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Managua, Nicaragua

2. Agenda
• Presentation of CIAT
• Objectives
• Methodology
– Data
– Crop suitability modeling
• Results
• Opportunities/constraints
• Questions
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3. International Center for Tropical
Agriculture (CIAT)
• CIAT: Part of Consultative Group on
International Agricultural Research
• Mission: To reduce hunger and
poverty, and improve human health in
the tropics through research aimed at
increasing the eco-efficiency of
agriculture.
DAPA - Decision and Policy analysis
What we do: Spatial Analysis, climate change,
Impact analysis models, ecosystem services,
supply chain analysis, …
CIAT/DAPA - Lead Center of CCAFS

4. Objectives
1. Present future climate scenarios for the
main cashew growing regions of Ghana
and Ivory Coast and their impact on the
relative suitability for these regions to
grow cashew
1. Outline key opportunities to turn the
comparative advantage into a sustainable
business opportunity for the entire supply
chain
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5. Methodology
Pic by Neil Palmer (CIAT)
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6. Downscaling
Data
Current climate:
• www.WorldClim.org database
• 19 bioclimatic variables
derived from monthly temp.
and rainfall values
Future climate prediction:
• 19 Global Circulation Models
recommended by the IPCC
• Scenario: SRES-A2a
(“business as usual”)
• Downscaling

7. Suitability prediction
Current
climate
Future
climate
19 bioclimatic variables
MAXENT is a general-purpose
machine learning method for
making predictions from Prediction of
incomplete information. It is
future cashew
generally considered to be the Evidence data of
presence
most accurate model (Elith et al. todays cashew areas
2006).
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8. Crop suitability modeling
Suitability to future climate (2050) – Current suitability = Change in suitability
Presence points
• Samples (GPS points)
• Land cover and soil maps
• Current Production Areas
WorldClim Climate Data
Precipitation
http://worldclim.org
More than 47,000 stations worldwide
Find probability
distribution of
MaxEnt (crop niche model) maximum entropy,
Ranges: Temperature and precipitation subject to a set of
constrains
Temperature
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9. 9

10. Results
Pic by Neil Palmer (CIAT)
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11. 2050
2030 current
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12. 12

13. 13

14. 14

15. 15

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17. Drivers of suitability change
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18. 18

19. 19

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21. Opportunities
Pic by Neil Palmer (CIAT)
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22. Key opportunities
• In the near future current cashew growing
areas will become more suitable
• Cashew could be important to
maintain/improve thousands of livelihoods
– Cultivation on areas unsuitable for other crops
– Can substantially contribute to food security, when
intercropped with other food crops (maize, millet, yam, etc.)
– Increase of yield and quality by implementing new technologies
(e.g. germplasm)
– Several uses of the fruit (juice, fuel, etc.)
– Environmental services (soil protection, reforestation, +
feedback on climate, cc mitigation)
• Increasing demand of cashew can be covered
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23. Constraints
• Productivity in West-Africa is still very low
– Little access to information, money, improved
varieties, old trees, crop & pest management,
lack of labor availability in smallholders, lack of
farmer organization, etc.
• Increased risk of bushfires
• Soils and other land features affect
suitability as well
• Impact of climate change on pests and
diseases?
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24. Questions
• What are key constrains/opportunities of
extending cashew plantations in WA?
• What do you consider key elements of a
sustainable cashew supply chain?
• What are the major trends in the cashew
sector with respect to where and how the
crop will be cultivated?
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25. More questions
• According to CIAT’s results the suitable
area for production will increase, how does
that information affect decision making of
relevant stakeholders?
– Research investment
– Farmers outreach, technical assistance
– Investment in processing facilities
• What are important criteria that need to be
taken into account when new areas for
cashew plantations are searched for?
– Climate
– Land-use cover (e.g. forest) – competing crops?
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26. THANK YOU!
Contact:
rahn_eric@yahoo.com p.laderach@cgiar.org
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