Presentation made in the Side Event on Agriculutral Biodiversity and Climate Change organised by Bioversity International in the context of the Commission on Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture (CGRFA) meetings in FAO, July 2011.
3. The concentration of GHGs is rising Long-term implications for the climate and for crop suitability
4. Historical impacts on food security % Yield impact for wheat Observed changes in growing season temperature for crop growing regions,1980-2008. Lobell et al (2011)
5. Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050 Crop suitability is changing
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7. Message 1: In the coming decades, climate change and other global trends will endanger agriculture, food security, and rural livelihoods.
8. Left : Example of a silvo-pastoral system 2006 2007 2008 Ecosystem valuation Spot the livestock! Average price in voluntary carbon markets ($/tCO2e)
15. Objective One: Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies Objective Two: Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climates Objective Three: Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
19. Objective One: Building resilient livelihoods ( Farm level ) Objective Two: Food delivery, trade, and crisis response ( Food system level ) Objective Three: Enhanced climate information and services Managing Climate Risk · 2
20. Pro-poor Mitigation VISION Short-term : Identifying options feasible for smallholder mitigation and trade-offs with other outcomes Long-term : Addressing conflict between achieving food security and agricultural mitigation
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For Lobell map: Values show the linear trend in temperature for the main crop grown in that grid cell, and for the months in which that crop is grown. Values indicate the trend in terms of multiples of the standard deviation of historical year-to-year variation. ** A 1˚C rise tended to lower yields by up to 10% except in high latitude countries, where in particular rice gains from warming. ** In India, warming may explain the recently slowing of yield gains. For yield graph: Estimated net impact of climate trends for 1980-2008 on crop yields for major producers and for global production. Values are expressed as percent of average yield. Gray bars show median estimate and error bars show 5-95% confidence interval from bootstrap resampling with 500 replicates. Red and blue dots show median estimate of impact for T trend and P trend, respectively. ** At the global scale, maize and wheat exhibited negative impacts for several major producers and global net loss of 3.8% and 5.5% relative to what would have been achieved without the climate trends in 1980-2008. In absolute terms, these equal the annual production of maize in Mexico (23 MT) and wheat in France (33 MT), respectively. Source: Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980 David B. Lobell 1 , , Wolfram Schlenker 2 , 3 , and Justin Costa-Roberts 1 Science magazine
Why focus on Food security And climate change has to be set in the context of growing populations and changing diets 60-70% more food will be needed by 2050 because of population growth and changing diets – and this is in a context where climate change will make agriculture more difficult.
Carbon becomes a commodity, and a profitable one at that. Can smallholders get a piece of the action?
Challenge Program then CGIAR Research Program Theme Leaders spread across CG system and the global change community in advanced research institutes New way of working – deliberately networked