John Ingram & Andrew Ainslie ECI Oxford UK. CCAFS East Africa Scenarios Workshop #1. 25-26 August 2010, Nairobi, Kenya.

1. Forum for the Future scenarios
• A set of four scenarios that focuses on 44 low-income
countries, including Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania &
Uganda (GNI per capita < $975/yr)
• How climate change could affect the development of
these 44 countries to 2030
• Purpose of the scenarios: to facilitate a longer-term
and more holistic approach to decision-making.
• Funded by DFID, but undertaken by FfF, a U.K.-based,
independent sustainability group.

2. Methodology
• Built on FfF’s earlier work - started this process with a
horizon scan which examined key factors that will
affect these countries over the next 20 years (‘drivers
of change’)
• The horizon scan involved extensive desktop research
& canvassing the views of over 100 ‘experts’
worldwide, including ‘free thinkers’, govt officials,
entrepreneurs, etc. (some in Ethiopia & Kenya)
• Arrived at nine broad factors that will drive change:

3. The nine drivers
• The direct impacts of climate change (held constant across four
scenarios)
• The global political context
• Global economies
• Low income country politics
• Demographics
• Attitudes to climate change in low income countries
• Use of natural resources
• The role of technology
• The business response to climate change

4. Eight Questions asked of the
future global political context
• Could globalisation slow or even begin to reverse?
• Will we see changed political entities in the future, eg strong
regionalisation or resource-based boundaries?
• Could CC put unmanageable pressures on weaker states?
• How co-ordinated will the global political response to climate change
be?
• What relationships might evolve between low-income countries and
the rest of the world (including China)?
• What will become of overseas development aid – where will climate
change fit in?
• How high will CC sit on the political agendas of high and middle-income
countries (will there be a global ‘climate deal’?)
• Will mitigation mechanisms be effective?

5. The four scenarios
• Reversal of Fortunes (drastic measures to decarbonise
by-then successful low income economies)
[Regionalisation]
• Age of Opportunity (low carbon energy revolution
after successful climate deal) [Globalisation]
• Coping Alone (high oil prices/stagnation, regional
blocs – growing inequality) [R]
• The Greater Good (concerns over not only CC, but
also water, food and soil – with heavy regulation of
resources and limited personal liberties [R]

6. So what?
What are the implications of these scenarios? The report lists
some key messages and urges us to prepare for
• Rapid urbanisation
• Changes in agriculture and land use more generally
• Absolute population growth
• Persistent and growing inequality
• New players like China and others will bring new influences
• Established political boundaries may shift – regions and cities
could become more significant

7. So what for the CCAFS agenda?
For us, these scenarios can help sharpen our focus in
relation to the drivers of and trade-offs between
• food security
• the livelihoods of the poor across East Africa and
• environmental benefits
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