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CRP7 - Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security Theme 4, Integration for Decision Making Bonn, June 2011
Options and alternatives Global Household Behavioural change Assessing impacts and trade-offs Policy context Knowledge into action
Options and alternatives T1, T2, T3 Global Household Behavioural change Assessing impacts and trade-offs Policy context T4.3 Knowledge into action T4.1 Data, tools, methods T4.2
Global scenarios … …  regional scenarios … (demand, land use, global prices, etc) Inputs Ecosystem services (regional prices, regional demand, policy & market environment, etc) Checks for coherence, consistency, viability ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],…  household assessment …  providing context and inputs to … …  providing context and inputs to … Checks for coherence, consistency, viability Aggregation Disaggregation
Integration ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Objective One:  Linking knowledge with action Objective Two:  Data and tools for analysis and planning Objective Three:  Refining frameworks for policy analysis Integration for Decision Making · 4
Integration for Decision Making · 4 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Linking knowledge with action ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Data & tools for analysis & planning ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Frameworks for policy analysis
Major uncertainties to 2030 identified by regional scenarios exercise in East Africa ,[object Object],[object Object],The way these uncertainties play out will dramatically affect agriculture and food security development pathways ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Vulnerability mapping Domains defined by exposure + sensitivity + coping capacity LGP delta >5% threshold Domain Area (km2)  Population  LLL 4,508,660  40,275,900  LLH 13,120,500  102,357,000  LHL 1,412,400  89,935,000  LHH 3,321,920  219,658,000  HLL 13,248,100  126,387,000  HLH 22,374,000  155,368,000  HHL 5,172,800  369,162,000  HHH 5,078,220  238,567,000
Baseline survey conducted in 36 sites, 252 villages, with 5,040 households CCAFS outputs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Why useful? Baseline surveys at household, village, organisational levels
[object Object],[object Object],Without  climate change, child malnutrition falls except in Sub Saharan Africa With  climate change, child malnutrition increases everywhere ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Analytical frameworks for integrated analysis
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Theme 4 integration
 
 

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CCAFS Theme 4 Strategy: Integration for Decision Making

  • 1. CRP7 - Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security Theme 4, Integration for Decision Making Bonn, June 2011
  • 2. Options and alternatives Global Household Behavioural change Assessing impacts and trade-offs Policy context Knowledge into action
  • 3. Options and alternatives T1, T2, T3 Global Household Behavioural change Assessing impacts and trade-offs Policy context T4.3 Knowledge into action T4.1 Data, tools, methods T4.2
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6. Objective One: Linking knowledge with action Objective Two: Data and tools for analysis and planning Objective Three: Refining frameworks for policy analysis Integration for Decision Making · 4
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9. Vulnerability mapping Domains defined by exposure + sensitivity + coping capacity LGP delta >5% threshold Domain Area (km2) Population LLL 4,508,660 40,275,900 LLH 13,120,500 102,357,000 LHL 1,412,400 89,935,000 LHH 3,321,920 219,658,000 HLL 13,248,100 126,387,000 HLH 22,374,000 155,368,000 HHL 5,172,800 369,162,000 HHH 5,078,220 238,567,000
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.  
  • 14.  

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. I would suggest you add ILRI logo on the fron page and I have been telling the others to use their institutional backround for the remainiing slides.
  2. This is real nice, but here is a challenge: does this cover 4.1 and 4.3 – I think not; why not have a first slide that shows 4.1, 4.2 and 4.3; and then this one for 4.2?
  3. Massive exercise – training of survey teams and partners, multi-lingual survey instrument, large number of households in remote sites Site selection based on multiple criteria to represent a range of exposure (e.g. predicted changes in rainfall), sensitivity (e.g. livelihood dependence on threatened crops) and capacity to respond (e.g. how well connected by roads) in each region Graph from all households in three regions in baseline survey shows lower access among female-headed households to modern communications, especially phones Relevant to many proposed interventions e.g. weather forecasts by cellphone Baseline has multiple purposes: action research sites particularly for the adaptation themes 1 & 2 (these sites will be matched with analogue sites), better understanding of local and regional differences to guide best-bet technologies and practices to trial in different localities; also as formal baseline for future program assessment.
  4. Have a look at my last slide “challenges” – perhaps you can havce this slide as part of that?