1. Closing the loop: assessing adaptive capacity on farms for potential changes to farming enterprises under climate change Kerry Bridle 1,2 , Peter Brown 1 , Shaun Lisson 1 , David Parsons 2 , Neil MacLeod 1 1 CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences 2 Tasmanian Institute of Agricultural Research [email_address]

3. Region Enterprise focus Mean annual rainfall (mm) Sassafras (300-800 ha) Vegetable crops > 800 Cressy (Longford workshop , 500-2700 ha) Broadacre crops/ Intensive grazing 600-800 Central Midlands (Oatlands workshop, 400-7400 ha) Extensive grazing/ Broadacre crops 450-600 Upper Derwent Valley (Hamilton workshop, 250-2400 ha) Extensive grazing/ Broadacre crops 450-600 Coal Valley (Richmond workshop, 43-1700 ha) Broadacre crops/ Ex+Intensive grazing 450-600

5. Projected % change in annual and seasonal rainfall 1961-1990 to 2071-2100, mean of downscaled-GCMs, A2 emissions scenario Winter Autumn Spring Annual Summer Information supplied by Greg Holz ACE CRC [email_address] www.acecrc.org.au Greg Holz speaking - Thurs pm

6. Projected number of days less than 2°C year -1 (i and ii) 1961-1990 (left) and 2071-2100 (right), mean of downscaled-GCMs, A2 emissions scenario Projected decrease in number of frosts during the growing season

7. Q1) How do you currently manage seasonal climatic variability? Crops Pastures Whole farm Wet seasons Mitigate against water-logging (2/5) e.g. raised beds, underground drainage Flexible crop rotations (2/5) Wet seasons Move stock to dry land (2/5) On and off farm income sources (2/5) Dry seasons Irrigation from a variety of sources (3/5) Fodder crops/dual purpose crops (3/5) Dry Seasons Destock (4/5) Change livestock mix (e.g. from cattle to sheep) (3/5) Irrigate pastures (2/5) Drought tolerant pastures (1/5) Q2) Based on future trends, how might you respond differently in the future? Crops Pastures Whole farm New cultivars (3/5) Changes to sowing/harvesting times (4/5) Change crops (2/5) New technology (2/5) Change to stock management e.g. lambing times (3/5) Plant fodder crops (2/5) No real change to current activities (4/5) Increase diversification on farm (2/5) Cost of production/land price will determine what is done (2/5)

8. Rural Livelihoods Analysis ( Nelson et al . 2010a,b ) Capital Examples Human skills, health and education Social family, community and other social networks and services Natural productivity of land, water and biological resources Physical infrastructure, equipment and breeding resources Financial access to income, savings and credit

10. Northern Midlands document Capital Main factors Adaptive capacity workshops Regional workshops/ Barriers to adaptation Human N – 2 S – 1.8 Age of farmers Constraining Mean age of farmers is increasing, little to attract young people to farming and expensive to buy in to farming Labour costs and availability/ Age of farmers (4/5) The mindset and perceived risk of individual farmers (3/5) Social N – 3.3 S – 1. Importance placed on availability of services Big difference in the role of community and sense of isolation felt. Rely on family for support but not there if children are away at school. Government legislation (4/5) Lack of research and extension (3/5) Natural N – 3.3 S – 3.3 Climate Water availability Enabling Good in N, poor in S – cost of irrigation water prohibitive Physical N – 3.4 S – 2.6 Plant breeding Niche markets Generally enabling apart from water infrastructure in South Water availability (2/5) Financial N – 2.2 S – 1.3 Cost of production Terms of trade Constraining for both regions Land prices are of concern in the N while access to credit is of concern in the S Cost of production/return on investment (4/5) Market demand (3/5) Land use change (2/5)

11. Incremental vs. transformative change

12. Change enterprise mix Change grazing and pasture management Reduce tillage Trial low input systems Invest in irrigation Direct marketing of niche products

13. Adaptation in the future State and Federal policy has addressed constraints relating to physical capital (irrigation infrastructure), but issues around human, financial, and social capital, including the desire to stay on the land, will ultimately determine what adaptation strategies are adopted. Financial concerns, including costs of production and land use change are more important (urgent) in driving on-farm adaptation than climate change. The profitability of farming needs to be addressed through the market place to enable farmers to diversify and more importantly to attract young people to farming. Extension services are lacking, particularly given perceived high risk adaptation strategies. Farmers will need external support to help reduce the ‘risk’ of changing enterprise mix. What is the role of LGA’s, CMA’s, State and Federal Government in assisting farmers to continue to produce food and fibre?

14. Acknowledgements Many thanks to the collaborating farmers and the farmer network conveners: Geoff Dean TIAR/SFS; Sophie Folder Petra Novak, Rebecca Clarkeson (Serve-Ag); Steven Joyce (NRM South-Upper Derwent Landacre Group); and Adrian James and James McKee (NRM North), for their roles in contributing to the workshops. Thanks also to the national project leader Steven Crimp (CSIRO)