The Brussels Development Briefing n.60 on “The future of food and agricultural transformation” organised by CTA, the European Commission/EuropeAid, the ACP Secretariat and CONCORD was held on Wednesday 26 February 2020 (9h00-13h00) at the ACP Secretariat, Avenue Georges Henri 451, 1200 Brussels. The briefing presented trends and discussed the sustainable and healthy food systems, the future of work in agriculture and the need for new skills in very complex food chains, the effects of disruptive innovations, fair and inclusive value chains and trade. The audience was made up of ACP-EU policy-makers and representatives of the EU Member States, civil society groups, research networks and development practitioners, the private sector and international organisations based in Brussels as well as representatives from ACP regional organisations.

1. SIDS
AGRI-FOOD CHALLENGES
& OPPORTUNITIES
LEN ISHMAEL
BRUSSELS

2. STRUCTURE OF CONVERSATION
A. SIDS & THEIR CHARACTERISTICS
B. SYSTEMIC ISSUES RELATED TO SIZE
C: CLIMATE EMERGENCY
HOW THESE AFFECT THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

3. IDENTIFICATION OF SIDS AS A SPECIAL GROUP
OF
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
FIRST GLOBAL CONFERENCE ON SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL ISLAND DEVELOPING STATES
1994 & THE BPA.

4. 59 COUNTRIES : 69.9 M POPULATION: <1%
WP

5. GENERALLY NOT AMONG THE POOREST OF
THE POOR
 Many SIDS have achieved relatively high human development
indices
 64% are Middle Income
 Highest concentration in the Caribbean all, except Haiti are
middle income countries

6. SIDS/PARADISE/BEAUTY

7. PARADISE IS ALSO A FACADE
SIDs face real challenges in the bid to seek
development, modernize societies and to ensure the
well being of their people.

8. SYSTEMIC CHARACTERISTICS
IMPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
• ENVIRONMENTALLY FRAGILE ECOSYSTEMS
• NARROW RESOURCE BASE
• HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE NATURAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
GOODS & SERVICES
• HIGH RATIOS OF SEA TO LAND MASS

9. SOME - THE PACIFIC ISLANDS - REMOTE

10. EXTRAORDINARILY VULNERABLE
ENVIRONMENTALLY & ECONOMICALLY
Location in tropics – exceptionally vulnerable to tropical cyclones
– with their ability to wipe out years of GDP growth, housing &
capital infrastructure – in a few hours

11. SIGNIFICANT GDP IMPACT
Example: 2004: CAT 5 Hurricane Ivan in Grenada - 20 hours –
Damages US$900 million - 200% GDP
Cat 5 Topical Cyclone Pam – 2015 – damages to Vanuatu $692 +
fatalities
Hurricane Sandy East Coast USA – 2012 $70.2 Billion in USD 16.16
trillion GDP
Impact on US GDP: 0.4%

12. SOCIAL & ECONOMIC VULNERABILITIES
• Among the most highly indebted countries in the world
• Highly open economies vulnerable to external shocks – impacts
of 2008/09 financial markets collapse - Antigua & Barbuda -
12% Anguilla -18% . National Banks failed
• High levels of unemployment
• World Bank reports indicate some Caribbean SIDS have highest
levels of youth unemployment – in the world ( close to 38% for
some C’s)

13. DEFINING CHARACTERISTIC - SIZE
Within the SIDS Grouping:
Size is a relative concept – Cuba 11.4 Million
Niue 1610.

14. SIZE – CONSTRAINING FACTOR
• Small size – constrains size of domestic markets, high per unit
cost of production & inputs such as capital, energy
• Affects absorption capacity of technology
• Implications for size of labor force, skills
• Topography – further implications for development including
agriculture
• Lack of SCALE – Implications for competitiveness – absent of S
& D measures

15. MINI – CASE STUDY 1
GREEN GOLD: THE CASE OF
WINDWARD ISLAND BANANAS

16. A POLICY ISSUE – TOOL FOR SOCIAL
MOBILITY
• In 1960’s & 70’s Eastern Caribbean Countries purchased
plantations owned by UK MNC – GEEST – divided into small
holdings distributed to peasant farmers – to lift people out of
poverty, create an asset owning class with prospects for social
mobility and good livelihoods
• Banana production viable for GEEST since they owned all
plantations in the EC, with vertical integration - transportation
– ships – distributors, capital – Labor was the variable input.

17. RADICAL TRANSFORMATION OF RURAL LIFE
• Feeder Roads & solid homes built
• Farmers purchased trucks to take crop to ports
• Kids went to school – they wore shoes
• Stabilized rural – urban drift

18. LOADING THE BANANA
BOAT

20. GREEN GOLD - BUT LACK OF SCALE
• Windward island Bananas – represented < 0.04% of world
production of bananas
• Caribbean producers as a whole represented 3% of world
exports and & 7% of EU banana imports
• 300,000 tons/annum of 12 million produced/year
• Cost of production – X2/3 times more than larger scale
producers in Central America.

21. RELATIVELY SMALL OUTPUT BUT BIG LOCAL
IMPACT
• 25,000 farmers with huge multiplier effects
• Represented 50% of exports for Dominica , 41% for the WI
islands AV, and >50% labor in some islands

22. IN 1993 EU ANNOUNCED PREFERENTIAL
TREATMENT FOR BANANAS FROM FORMER
COLONIES
• US – a non banana producer - took EU to WTO on behalf of
Chiquita and Dole – citing discriminatory access for Caribbean
bananas -Despite small size of holdings from the Caribbean
which went mainly to UK market.
• Chiquita and Dole main producers in Central America, different
social model using peasant labor on vast plantations
• CA supplied 94% of fresh bananas to USA

23. DOLLAR BANANAS VS SMALL SCALE
FARMERS
• Caribbean Av farm size 1.5 acres (0.6 ha)
• VS Ecuador: 5000 farmers – 300,000 acres (125,000 ha)

24. EU LOSS AT WTO
COLLAPSE OF BANANA PRODUCTION
• Without preferential access – Caribbean small producers unable
to compete with larger and cheaper Latin American countries
• Results for WI catastrophic – farmers lost farms, trucks, homes
, livelihoods -governments lost revenues – period of great
economic, social and political instability

25. COMPETITION IS CHALLENGING FOR SIDS
Similar story for Caribbean Sugar.
STK and Nevis dependency ratio of HH dependent on sugar was
68% in early 2000’s.
Dismantling of preferences devastating consequences for the
political, economic and social security & stability of the islands

26. CHALLENGES EXIST, BUT SO DO
OPPORTUNITIES TOURISM - AGRICULTURAL
LINKAGES
Makes sense – tourism vital sector for islands – replaced Sugar &
Bananas in many islands - >50% GDP for some islands
Significant demand for food from tourism plant
Optimal for forward and backward linkages between agriculture –
agro processing - tourism

27. “The Tourism industry mainly relies on food imports as opposed
to accessing the local market. Despite many years – little success
in supplying tourism demand from domestic production and
value chains”

28. A VITAL LINK NOT FULLY EXPLOITED
CASE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
Eastern Caribbean States Tourism Sector demand
Less than 30% supplied locally
Hotelier complaints – unpredictability of supply, quality, and
volume

29. UNEXPLOITED: YACHTING SECTOR
Example:
MULTIMILLION DOLLAR YACHING INDUSTRY - BVI – GREAT SOUCE OF
DEMAND FOR FRESH FOODS, BANANAS & FLOWERS
CHIQUITA & DOLE provisioned daily from Puerto Rico – YET THE BVI
WAS A MEMBER OF THE REGION FIGHTING TO SALVAGE BANANAS
YACHT COMPANIES CITED - WEAK REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION
LINKAGES

30. FOR MANY SIDS – CHALLENGES FACE
AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
TRANSPORTATION AS AN IMPEDEMENT TO INTRA-REGIONAL
TRADE WELL DOCUMENTED
SECTOR CHARACTERISED BY MAINLY SMALL PRODUCERS –
ACCESS TO CREDIT, SEEDS, REFRIDGERATED STORAGE, BETTER
VARIETIES, IRRIGATION – DIFFICULT

31. MANY SIDS: AGRICULTURE
CHARACTERISTICS
• STILL LOW LEVELS OF TECHNOLOGY, ENTREPRENEURSHIP
• LOW PRODUCTIVITY
• LOW CAPACITY TO COMPY WITH MODERN FOOD SAFETY AND
QUALITY STANDARDS
• HIGH PRODUCTION COSTS & MARKETING

32. OTHER ELEMENTS
• AVERAGE AGE OF FARMERS IS 55+
• SOCIETAL MIND SET – WORK IN AGRICULTURE MENIAL
• SOCIETIES HAVE EVOLVED TASTES TOWARDS IMPORTED FOODS

33. HIGH IMPORT FOOD BILLS
EXAMPLE CARICOM:
FOOD IMPORTS - $2.08 B - $ 4.25 B 2011 – ON TARGET TO HIT
$8-10 B 2020.

34. HIGH IMPORT FOOD BILLS - COSTS?
CROWDING OUT DOMESTIC AGRICULTURE
BURDEN ON CURRENCY EXCHANGE RESERVES
INCREASING PROCESSED CONTENT
HIGH LEVELS OF DIET RELATED NCD
RURAL POVERTY
LOSS OF JOBS

35. AGRICULTURE UNEVEN CONTRIBUTION TO
GDP
Agriculture represents 2 % of GDP in the Bahamas – 36% to Papua
New Guinea
AVERAGE 7-17% FOR THE CARIBBEAN OUTSIDE OF HAITI.
INTRA REGIONAL TRADE IN AGRICULTURE < 17.3% 2000 – 12.7%
2010

36. INVERSE CORRELATION
GDP/CAPITA AND SHARE OF AGRIC IN GDP

37. 2: SIDS & CLIMATE CHANGE
FRONTLINE OF CLIMATE EMERGENCY
A TICKING CLOCK
CLIMATE CHANGE REPRESETS A SYSTEMIC THREAT FOR SIDS,
GIVEN THEIR SIZE - AND FOR SOME – AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT

38. LITERALLY SINKING

39. VULNERABILITY – KEY CHARACTERISTIC OF
SIDS
HARD HIT BY THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 2008–2010
THE FOOD AND FUEL CRISES OF 2007–2008,
AND NATURAL DISASTERS IN 2009–2010, 2015 - 2017
VERY LITTLE BY WAY OF SAFETY NETS TO CUSHION SHOCKS
THEY ARE NOT ECONOMICALLY RESILIENT

40. CLIMATE CHAGE HAS DEEPENED
VULNERABILITY
Climate Change existential threat – to PACIFIC ISLANDS
TUVALU, NAURU, KIRABTI, MALDIVES, MARSHALL ISLANDS –
OTHERS
• LOSS OF COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE
• DAMAGE TO NEAR COASTAL RESOURCES & ECOSYSTEMS

41. CLIMATE SCIENCE NOTES
• MORE EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS: DROUGHT, FLOODS,
CYCLONES
MOVEMENT OF BIOME ALREADY AFFECTING 25% OF WORLD
BY 2050 ALMOST EVERY COUNTRY AFFECTED – IMPACTS ON
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES, HABITATS, LIVLIHOODS

42. 2017 – COSTLIEST PERIOD IN CARIBBEAN
HISTORY
10 Hurricanes
6 Major Hurricanes (CAT3+)
3,364 deaths
Approx. $295 billion
SIDS in constant state of building & rebuilding even while owning
public debt on capital infrastructure – private insurance scarce.

43. GLOBAL TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE

44. 1985-2009 WORLD AVERAGE 0.13C
EASTERN CARIBBEAN 0.27C

45. IMPACTS ON SEA TEMPERATURES, CORALS,
FISHERIES

46. POOREST COUNTRIES MOST AT RISK
Within regions, the poorest communities and
populations typically are the most vulnerable to climate
events. They often lack financial means as well as
support from public or private agencies.

47. ADAPTATION HAS BEEN ONGOING – BUT
PACE AND SCALE NEED TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY
ADAPTATION COULD FACE TECHNICAL LIMITS AND
COSTS
HARD TRADE-OFFS NEED TO BE ASSESSED, INCLUDING
“WHO AND WHAT TO PROTECT AND WHO AND WHAT
TO RELOCATE.”

48. AGRICULTURE – SECTOR MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

49. IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE
● Increases in agricultural pests and diseases
● Effect of extreme events on agricultural infrastructure, livelihoods
and assets
● Decrease in the availability of water resources
● Reduction in water quality due to saline intrusion into groundwater
sources;
● Accelerated soil erosion due to the occurrence of extreme events
(floods, hurricanes etc.);
● Reduction in soil fertility due to soil salinization caused by rising sea
levels.

50. • Reduction in crop yields
● Damage to agricultural infrastructure and assets
● Mass disruption to food security
● Loss of employment and income
● Loss of foreign exchange
● Increased demand for foreign exchange for food import

51. IMPACTS ON THE BLUE ECONOMY:
LOSS OF MARINE RESOURCES DUE TO DESTRUCTION OF
SPAWNING GROUNDS

52. VALUABLE RESOURCE!
Capture fisheries are the wealth of many SIDS especially in
the Pacific SIDS, where fisheries can contribute as much as
10 percent of GDP.
Of the 2.4 million tonnes of tuna caught in the Western
Pacific Ocean, 1.4 million (58 percent) were taken in
the waters of Pacific SIDS with a value of USD 2.8
billion.

53. CHALLENGE TO INCREASE SHARE LANDED
BY SIDS
Share actually taken by SIDS domestic fleets and/or
processed in SIDS facilities remains relatively small.

54. STEPS ARE BEING TAKEN
IN OCTOBER 2019 VANUATU ANNOUNCED PLANS TO EXPORT 1.5
TONNES OF YELLOWFIN AND BLUEFIN TUNE/WEEK TO USA/NZ
THROUGH THE SINO VAN FISHERIES LT JOINT VENTURE

55. FAO ASSESSMENT: CARIBBEAN NEEDS BLUE
REVOLUTION
Paper on fisheries and aquaculture suggests that a Caribbean
Blue Revolution is needed and possible. Aquaculture
development can increase total fish production in the CARICOM
states by 30 percent within 10 years
Requirements? investments in enabling aquaculture policy and
legal frameworks, supported by applied research, capacity
building and information.

56. BLUE GROWTH INITIATIVES
• Aquaculture has been proposed as a way to BOOST food
security for Pacific SIDS.
• Legal and technical support for aquaculture development is
currently provided by the Network for Aquaculture in
Micronesia (MASA).

57. SKILLS, TECHNOLOGY & INFRASTRUCTURE
GREATER INVESTMENTS IN SKILLS, TECHNOLOGY &
INFRASTRUCTURE
Science-based standards for fish and fisheries products &
implementation CODEX, eco-labelling, sustainability and
traceability to combat IUU).
ADVICE ON MARKET TRENDS & PRICING

58. EXPLOITING LINKS BETWEEN TOURISM &
MARINE ENVIRONMENT
Greater support to SIDS in promoting ecotourism and
sustainable use of marine resources

59. TOURISM & THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT
• Cooperatives established to manage manatee stocks in Belize.
• Fiji combining tourist resort development with traditional
coastal fishing villages.
• Aquaculture sites and traditional cultures have been combined
with various marine tourism activities such as snorkeling,
diving, fishing, sailing and surfing.
• Marine parks in the Caribbean support low impact tourism
activities

60. MODEL OF LOMBOK ISLAND - INDONESIA
Blue Growth implementation in Lombok Island, Indonesia has
been suggested as model for the Blue Growth implementation in
SIDS.
Activities of tuna fisheries, shrimp culture, pearl oyster culture,
seaweed culture, processing and marketing, salt ponds, rice-fish
farming, mangrove forests, marine tourism

61. AGRI -TECH & SIDS?
Technology has its place in aiding progress in Agriculture – much
discussion on climate resistant varieties, use of blockchain &
other digital techs to ensure quality – and more
Tech played an impt role in Vanuatu’s ability to monitor illegal
fishing

62. Many opportunities already exist which
have not yet been fully exploited

63. SPECIFICALLY TARGET SMALL PRODUCERS
• PROVIDE TECHNICAL AND FINANCIAL SUPPORT TO ACHIEVE
COMMERCIALIZATION & INCLUSION IN TOURISM FOOD
MARKETS
• SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF FARMERS COOPERATIVES AND
SMALL PRODUCER ORGANIZATIONS
• CONSIDER CENTRALIZED MARKETING SUPPORT
• SUPPORT SKILLS DEVELOPMENT & ENTREPEURNSHIP

64. STRENGTHEN
DOMESTIC & REGIONAL MARKETS
• STRENGTHEN LINKS BETWEEN DOMESTIC AGRICULTURE &
TOURISM
• BUILD & EXPLOIT REGIONAL VALUE CHAINS – CREATE SCALE
• INVEST IN SYSTEMS OF MARINE TRANSPORTATION
• INTRODUCE BEST PRACTICES & APPROPRIATE TECHNOLOGIES
• CATALYSE BEHAVIORAL CHANGES FROM PRODUCTION TO
CONSUMPTION
• FOCUS ON DOMESTIC POLICIES –FOOD HYGIENE, SAFETY,
LABELING

65. OPPORTUNITIES EXIST TO DO MORE WITH
WHAT EXISTS
• EDUCATE CONSUMERS – HEALTH BENEFITS TO EATING AND
BUYING LOCAL
• EDUCATE VISITORS – SUPPORTING LOCAL FARMS & EXPLORING
DIFFERENT CULTURES
• DEVELOP NICHE MARKETS SUCH AS YACHTING
• LINK SMALL FARMERS TO VILLAGE TOURISM
• DEVELOP POLICIES WHICH REWARD & VALUE AGRICULTURE

66. FINAL REFLECTIONS?
Behind the myth of paradise – are real people, with real
lives, needing jobs and looking to make ends meet.

67. FOR SIDS CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES
WILL ALWAYS EXIST
Sometimes In Scoping Far And Wide For Opportunities –
We Fail To Exploit Those Which Are Already There
IN THESE TIMES OF EVEN GREATER CHALLENGES - EVEN MORE
ATTENTION NEEDS TO BE DEVOTED TO MANAGING – BETTER -
THOSE ELEMENTS
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE SOLID RESULTS

68. THANK YOU!