This document outlines two missions: 1) Investigating and mapping ecosystem services budgets in the Amazon basin using a matrix approach. 2) Analyzing changes in water-related ecosystem services over time in the Colombian and Peruvian Amazon using the land surface model JULES under different land cover change scenarios. The overall aim is to evaluate natural capital changes under climate change and land use options in order to inform ecosystem services policy and sustainable land use decisions through a participatory approach at the local level.

1. Uncertainties in Natural Capital Facing
Climate and Land Use Change:
From Ecosystem Services Point of View
Wei Weng, Prajal Pradhan, Jürgen Kropp, David Landholm Haight,
Desirée Dörr.
SAL Annual Meeting
CIAT Cali, Colombia
March 2016

2. Objectives
MISSION A.
•Background
Lack of knowledge in the spatial distribution of ecosystem services in the Amazon basin.
Call for undertaking spatial analysis of the dynamic ecosystem assets. (UNEP, 2014)
•A framework of investigating and mapping ecosystem services budgets is proposed here.
•Potential contribution  WP1 O1 indicator 2 and 3/ WP2 O2 indicator 3
MISSION B.
•Background
Land use changes has currently altered the hydrological regimes of the Amazon basin.
Studies have yet addressed the future changes of the provision, flow and potential of water-related ecosystem services.
•Analysis of changes in water-related ecosystem services over time in Colombian and Peruvian Amazon utilizing land surface
model under different land-cover change scenarios.
•Potential contributionWP2 O2
http://matrix.wikia.com/wiki/Main_
Page

3. MISSION A
•Concept of ecosystem services budgets* is employed here. (Bulkhard et al., 2012)
•Matrix approach in order to show the capacity of supply and demands quantitatively.
•Integrating published research data (eg. Rodríguez et al., 2014; Ramirez-Gomez et al., 2014) and modelling (eg.
CMIP5, EcoCrop) outputs to provide assessments for ranges of ecosystem services budget.
•Utilising Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (CICES) in an aim of potential assimilation into
global ecosystem asset accounting network.
Investigating and mapping ecosystem services
budgets of the study area http:/
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4. An example for the intended investigation
Source: Open access article
Burkhard, B., Kandziora, M., Hou, Y., and Müller, F. (2014). Ecosystem
service potentials, flows and demands–concepts for spatial localization,
indication and quantification. Landscape Online, 34, 1-32.
Investigating and mapping ecosystem
services budgets of the study area
Class
Surfacewaterfordrinking
Groundwaterfordrinking
Surfacewaterfor
non-rinkingpurposes
Groundwaterfor
non-drinkingpurposes
Dilutionbyatmosphere,
freshwaterandmarine
ecosystems
Hydrologicalcycleand
waterflowmaintenance
Floodprotection
Stormprotection
Chemicalconditionof
freshwaters
Chemicalconditionofsalt
waters
Globalclimateregulation
byreductionofgreenhouse
gas
Microandregionalclimate
regulation
Landscapeunits
• Experts workshop (Burkhard et al., 2014)
• Landscape units - scale data (!)

5. MISSION B
Analysis of changes in water-related ecosystem services over
time in Colombian and Peruvian Amazon utilizing land surface
model under different land-cover change scenarios.
•Studies suggested the land management in last decade has changed the precipitation regime and
drought frequency (Bagley et al., 2014; Swann et al., 2015).
•Projected hydrological regime change has yet to be integrated into the ecosystem services delivery
point of view quantitatively and directly.
•The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (Best et al., 2011; Clark et al., 2011).
• 0.5° * 0.5°resolution, Recognition of sub-grid heterogeneity
• Can be coupled with climate model running online.
• Rainfall-runoff relationship: TOPMODEL approach (TOPography based hydrological MODEL; Kirkby, 1975;
Beven and Kirkby, 1979; Beven, 1997)
• Topographic index layer (15 arcsec resolution) (Marthews et al., 2014)

6. TIMELINE
Investigating and mapping ecosystem services
budgets of the study area
First working year 
Methodology established, data mining and decision
over indicators.
By this working year 
The assessment matrix of key ecosystem services
(water balance, soil, carbon and biodiversity).*
*This information can contribute to the discussion of
sustainable options with local communities.
Analysis of changes in water-related ecosystem
services over time
First working year 
Modelling configuration
By this working year  Modelling result of basic
runs and under different scenarios*.
* The sustainable options decided by participatory
approach in this project.
Information useful for decision over sustainable land use options and effective participatory land use/
ecosystem policy.

7. COLLABORATION
INTEREST
Mission A (Investigating and mapping ecosystem services
budgets of the study area)
•Ecosystem data at local scale which can be helpful for ES
assessment over landscape units
•Amazon basin scale escosystem services data (indicators
provided)
Mission B (Analysis of changes in water-related ecosystem services over time in
Colombian and Peruvian Amazon utilizing land surface model under different land-
cover change scenarios)
Inputs from hydrological and ES modelling experts among partners.
For detailed information of experiments and configuration or any suggestion,
please email weiweng@pik-potsdam.de http://images.google.de/imgres?imgurl=http%3A%2F%2Fitem.shopping.c.yimg.jp%2Fi%2Fl%2Fanzen-
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ge=7&start=153&ndsp=30&ved=0ahUKEwidi4ms-4HLAhVB1ywKHQNTC884ZBCtAwjEATBA

8. SUMMARY
• Work now in progress:
• An evaluation of the spatial distribution of ecosystem services using matrix
approach.
• Modelling changes in water-related ecosystem services under utilising land
surface model JULES.
• In total, this work aims to provide an evaluation of natural capital changes
under climate change and land use options while recognising their
interdependency.
• Decision level assessment leads the direction for ecosystem services policy, but
the transition options are to be decided at a local level and participatory way.

9. THANK YOU!
weiweng@pik-potsdam.de

10. THANK YOU!
weiweng@pik-potsdam.de