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Lecture Series

Monday, 14.11.2011

Con icts over land and water: The role of                 The Water-Energy-Food
large scale investors in Africa	
                             Security Nexus
                                                          Winter Semester 2011 / 2012

Dr. Michael Brüntrup,
German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für
Entwicklungspolitik
Tanja Pickardt
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit
Conflicts over land and water:
     The role of large scale investors in Africa

                                              Michael Brüntrup, DIE




Lecture Series „The Water-Energy-Food Security Nexus“
Winter Semester 2011 / 2012
Cologne, 14. November 2011
                                                                      2	
  
     © 2008 Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik                        2
Background – reasons for growing large scale land acquisitions
•  The boom of mainly government-induced biofuel policies in several countries
•  Rising world food market prices since about 2005, particularly since food price
   crisis 2007/08
                 - food security
                 - profits
•  Search of financial investors for alternative investments, possibly long-term,
   stable, and countercyclical to increasingly volatile and risky traditional financial
   products
•  Sale of certificates for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest
   degradation (REDD)
•  With rising oil and energy prices, biomass becomes an interesting (not policy
   induced) feedstock for energy production and petrochemical industry
•  Land speculation
•  Globalisation of agricultural trade (demand, information, standards ..)
•  Technology development (overcoming small farmer advantages)




  3	
  
          © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik                        3
Actors involved in LSLA
 Inter-                                                                        Transnational organisations
National
                                                                Investor
                                                                                            Government
                                                                                          sector structures
National
                    NGOs




                                                                Rural households
                                                         -displaced    -workers        Districts
                               Traditional/              -losers of    -contract
 Lokal                         indigenous                 access to NR farmers
                                authorities                            -other locals       Local
                                                         -downstream
                                                                                        communities
                                                           water users -in-migrants
    4	
  
            © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik                                         4
Opportunities of LSLA
•  Access to new, high price, high value addition markets
•  Large marketing capacities
•  Access to and favourable conditions to capital/credit, some of which handed
   over to local actors (contract farming)
•  Infrastructure investments, some for co-use by local actors
•  Access to and development of new technologies, some of which handed over
   to local actors (contract farming)
•  Better soil fertility management (nutrient balance)
•  Co-generation of and better adaptation to public regulation and private
   standards
•  New networking opportunities
•  Formal, often relatively well paid and secured jobs
•  Indirect effects (up- and downstream sectors, demand)
•  Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) projects
•  Local taxes and levies



  5	
  
          © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik                5
Opportunities
•  Access to new, high price, high value addition markets
•  Large marketing capacities
•  Access to and favourable conditions to capital/credit, some of which handed
   over to local actors (contract farming)
•  Infrastructure investments, some for co-use by local actors
•  Access to and development of new technologies, some of which handed over
   to local actors (contract farming)
•  Better soil fertility management (nutrient balance)
•  Co-generation of and better adaptation to public regulation and private
   standards
•  New networking opportunities
•  Formal, often relatively well paid and secured jobs
•  Indirect effects (up- and downstream sectors, demand)
•  Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) projects
•  Local taxes and levies



  6	
  
          © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik                6
Dynamics of agricultural trade, Subsahara
                    Africa and World




                                                            Aksoy / Akaman (2010)
7	
  
        © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik                           7
To capture more of value addition in a market chain,
          farmers need to invest and organise




                                                            UNCTAD (n.d.)
8	
  
        © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik                   8
Agricultural commodity prices are only a fraction of total food cost in
             agro-industry value chains (example: USA)




                                                             Rozanski / Thompson1 (2011)

 9	
  
         © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik                                 9
To access many of these markets, supplies have to be …




                                                   competitive
                                        of constant, reliable high quantity
                                    of high, constant apperance and quality
                                              increasingly traceable




                                                                        Aksoy / Akaman (2010)
10	
  
         © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik                                      10
Dynamics in markets




                                                             Aksoy / Akaman (2010)
11	
  
         © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik                           11
Importance of domestic markets in SSA




                                                             Romanik (2006)




12	
  
         © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik                    12
But also these markets are …




                                                                         Romanik (2006)

                   increasingly semi-formal and formal (supermarket) channels
                        screened and controlled for quality and conformity




13	
  
         © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik                                13
Opportunities
•  Access to new, high price, high value addition markets
•  Large marketing capacities
•  Access to and favourable conditions to capital/credit, some of which
   handed over to local actors (contract farming)
•  Infrastructure investments, some for co-use by local actors
•  Access to and development of new technologies, some of which handed over
   to local actors (contract farming)
•  Better soil fertility management (nutrient balance)
•  Co-generation of and better adaptation to public and private standards
•  New networking opportunities
•  Formal, often relatively well paid and secured jobs
•  Indirect effects (up- and downstream sectors, demand)
•  Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) projects
•  Local taxes and levies




  14	
  
           © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik            14
Smallholders are constrained by access to and
           unfavourable conditions for capital
• High transaction costs for both borrowers and lenders
• Generally lower population density and dispersed demand
• Often limited economic opportunities available to local populations
• High risks faced by potential borrowers and depositors due to the variability of incomes,
exogenous economic shocks and limited tools to manage risk
• Seasonality – potentially affecting both the client and the institution
• Heavy concentration on agriculture and agriculture related activities exposes clients and
institutions to multiple risks, both idiosyncratic (one household) and covariant (entire region or
country)
• Lack of reliable information about borrowers
• Lack of market information and/or market access
• Weak institutional capacity – including poor governance and operating systems, low staff and
management skills
• “Crowding out” effect due to subsidies and directed credit
• Increased risks associated with the concentration of a portfolio on agriculture activities that are
most prevalent in the area
• Lack of adequate or usable collateral (lack of assets, unclear property rights)
• Risk of political intervention, which can undermine payment morale through debt forgiveness
and interest rate caps
• Inhospitable policy, legal and regulatory frameworks
• Undeveloped legal systems, inadequate contract enforcement mechanisms
• Undeveloped or inadequate infrastructure                                               Andrews (2006)
• Land held may be too small to be sustainable or located too remotely to be reached efficiently
    15	
  
• Individuals may be dependent upon only one crop with no other external sources of income12
           © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik                                 15
Opportunities
•  Access to new, high price, high value addition markets
•  Large marketing capacities
•  Access to and favourable conditions to capital/credit, some of which handed
   over to local actors (contract farming)
•  Infrastructure investments, some for co-use by local actors
•  Access to and development of new technologies, some of which handed over
   to local actors (contract farming)
•  Better soil fertility management (nutrient balance)
•  Co-generation of and better adaptation to public regulation and private
   standards
•  New networking opportunities
•  Formal, often relatively well paid and secured jobs
•  Indirect effects (up- and downstream sectors, demand)
•  Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) projects
•  Local taxes and levies



  16	
  
           © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik               16
Infrastructure is indispensable, costly and beyond
  smallholder, often even government capacities




                                                             African Development Bang Group (2011)


17	
  
         © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik                           17
Opportunities
•  Access to new, high price, high value addition markets
•  Large marketing capacities
•  Access to and favourable conditions to capital/credit, some of which handed
   over to local actors (contract farming)
•  Infrastructure investments, some for co-use by local actors
•  Access to and development of new technologies, some of which handed
   over to local actors (contract farming)
•  Better soil fertility management (nutrient balance)
•  Co-generation of and better adaptation to public regulation and private
   standards
•  New networking opportunities
•  Formal, often relatively well paid and secured jobs
•  Indirect effects (up- and downstream sectors, demand)
•  Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) projects
•  Local taxes and levies



  18	
  
           © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik              18
Typical improved technologies and obstacles to
                 adoption by African smallholders




                                                             Odoemenem / Obinne (2010)
19	
  
         © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik                 19
Opportunities
•  Access to new, high price, high value addition markets
•  Large marketing capacities
•  Access to and favourable conditions to capital/credit, some of which handed
   over to local actors (contract farming)
•  Infrastructure investments, some for co-use by local actors
•  Access to and development of new technologies, some of which handed over
   to local actors (contract farming)
•  Better soil fertility management (nutrient balance)
•  Co-generation of and better adaptation to public and private standards
•  New networking opportunities
•  Formal, often relatively well paid and secured jobs
•  Indirect effects (up- and downstream sectors, demand)
•  Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) projects
•  Local taxes and levies




  20	
  
           © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik               20
Also under low-input smallholder agriculture,
            soil degradation can be a serious problem




                                                             Reich /
                                                             Eswaran (2004)
21	
  
         © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik   21
Opportunities
•  Access to new, high price, high value addition markets
•  Large marketing capacities
•  Access to and favourable conditions to capital/credit, some of which handed
   over to local actors (contract farming)
•  Infrastructure investments, some for co-use by local actors
•  Access to and development of new technologies, some of which handed over
   to local actors (contract farming)
•  Better soil fertility management (nutrient balance)
•  Co-generation of and better adaptation to public and private standards
•  New networking opportunities
•  Formal, often relatively well paid and secured jobs
•  Indirect effects (up- and downstream sectors, demand)
•  Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) projects
•  Local taxes and levies




  22	
  
           © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik               22
Opportunities
•  Access to new, high price, high value addition markets
•  Large marketing capacities
•  Access to and favourable conditions to capital/credit, some of which handed
   over to local actors (contract farming)
•  Infrastructure investments, some for co-use by local actors
•  Access to and development of new technologies, some of which handed over
   to local actors (contract farming)
•  Better soil fertility management (nutrient balance)
•  Co-generation of and better adaptation to public and private standards
•  New networking opportunities
•  Formal, often relatively well paid and secured jobs
•  Indirect effects (up- and downstream sectors, demand)
•  Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) projects
•  Local taxes and levies




  23	
  
           © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik               23
Opportunities
•  Access to new, high price, high value addition markets
•  Large marketing capacities
•  Access to and favourable conditions to capital/credit, some of which handed
   over to local actors (contract farming)
•  Infrastructure investments, some for co-use by local actors
•  Access to and development of new technologies, some of which handed over
   to local actors (contract farming)
•  Better soil fertility management (nutrient balance)
•  Co-generation of and better adaptation to public and private standards
•  New networking opportunities
•  Formal, often relatively well paid and secured jobs
•  Indirect effects (up- and downstream sectors, demand)
•  Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) projects
•  Local taxes and levies




  24	
  
           © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik               24
Agricultural wage labour is paid badly, but
       they earn better than many smallholders
“From Mozambique to Malawi, Zambia to Ethiopia, sugar offers a lifeline for
countless families who work on sugar plantations or grow sugar themselves. They
earn enough to send their children to school, to buy food to feed them, and to
obtain at least some of the essential medicines they need to treat them when they
fall sick. “


In Sofala province in central Mozambique, employment figures have doubled since the
rehabilitation of two large sugar estates. As a result of trade in sugar, Sofala has been
transformed from the province with the highest poverty headcount in 1996-97, to
the province with the lowest incidence of poverty in 2002-03. This success story
could be repeated across the continent.
                                                                   ‘Cutting sugar cane is difficult. I was not
  “Salaries in the sugar sector are low.                           very good when I started but I am better
  This is particularly true for farm                                now, faster. At the end of six months, if
  labourers and even more so for                                   they say I can keep working then I will. I
  labourers employed by smallholder                               need to earn money to support the family.
  farmers. The latter are generally                                   Things are difficult here – I still get
  employed on far worse terms than                               blistered hands and the money is not really
  workers on the sugar estates.”
    Oxfam (2004)
                                                                     enough, but I am glad to have a job.’
    25	
  
             © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik                                        25
Opportunities
•  Access to new, high price, high value addition markets
•  Large marketing capacities
•  Access to and favourable conditions to capital/credit, some of which handed
   over to local actors (contract farming)
•  Infrastructure investments, some for co-use by local actors
•  Access to and development of new technologies, some of which handed over
   to local actors (contract farming)
•  Better soil fertility management (nutrient balance)
•  Co-generation of and better adaptation to public and private standards
•  New networking opportunities
•  Formal, often relatively well paid and secured jobs
•  Indirect effects (up- and downstream sectors, demand)
•  Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) projects
•  Local taxes and levies




  26	
  
           © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik               26
Large scale farms can create vibrant rural economies
    through second-round effects, CSR and local taxes
                                                             Oxfam (2004)




27	
  
         © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik     27
Threats
•  Unequal power and knowledge of negotiation partners (agro-industries, farmers,
   communities, governments)  unfair contracts
•  Detrimental interference of governments (corruption, neo-patrimonialism, politics),
   but also over-protection
•  Displacement of non-permanent users of natural resources (vegetation, water,
   culture, )
•  Expulsion of land owners without proper compensation
•  Environmental degradation, particularly biodiversity, but also water, pesticides, soils
•  Structural monocultures,  dependencies of workers and outgrowers +
   dependencies of sub-regions
•  Unbalanced distribution of profits, inequity
•  Investment ruins with degraded ecological, economic and/or social environments




  28	
  
           © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik                     28
Investor – rural population relations
•  Land reallocation
•  Jobs (quantity, quality, wages, origin/local preferences)
•  Inclusive smallholder schemes
   •  Contracts (markets)
   •  Quality and process management
   •  Credit
   •  Inputs (including water)
   •  Production
   •  Diversification
•  Surplus sharing
•  Capital participation (land for shares)
•  Local taxes and levies
•  Corporate Soicial Responsibility (CSR) projects
•  Mutual political protection/advocacy
•  Neo-patrimonial, patron-client relations
•  Food availability components (attention to local suppliers!)
  29	
  
           © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik      29
Time dimension and problem/conflict hotspots


                                        F a i       l u r e




                                                              30	
  
© 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik                      30
Government responsibilities
Principles (human right to food): Respect, protect, fulfil
     P Participation
     A Accountability
     N Non-Diskrimination
     T Transparency
     H Human dignity
     E Empowerment
     R Rule of Law
•  Facilitate prior informed consent:
     •  (Help) Check large investors (reputation, demos, finances, business plans…)
     •  Provide model contracts
     •  Facilitate negotiations
     •  ….
•  No disappropriation for private interests, fair compensation
    (land for land, compulsory CSR, local taxes and levies ….)
•  Policy coordination and key infrastructure (see below)
•  International treaties, agreements, contracts (see below)
•  Dispute settlement
    (monitoring, bankruptcy laws, ombudsman, funds, courts, mediation, advisory
    services, …)
  31	
  
           © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik                31
Policy areas for influencing impacts of
                                large scale land investments
                                                      Taxation
                                                Labour
                                                           Economic              Outward oriented policies
                                                          development            (investment, trade, etc.)
                                            Food Security
                                                                                   Investor contracts
                  Rural development                             Infrastructure
Land use planning
                Land+Water+other NR                                              Input/Output
                                                                                   markets
   Agriculture                        Environment



                                         Corporate Social Responsibility; CSR

                  Primary	
  produc7on	
                        Processing	
           Marke7ng	
  

   32	
  
            © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik                                           32
Area 1: The rural development and food security
                      complex
•  Coherent, inclusive policies and strategies
   (food security > fair benefit sharing > inclusive growth)
•  Farmer and community organisation empowerment
•  Research (for supporting planning and decision making)
•  Rights on land and natural resources and their transfers
   (property and rights, registration, valuation, taxation, markets, litigation, …)
•  Water and other natural resources management
•  Multi-sector, multi-level land use planning
•  Agricultural value chain development
•  Linkage programmes
•  Reliable food markets (infrastructure, information, storage, …)
•  Rural development hubs
•  Special regards on vulnerable, displaced and losing groups

  33	
  
           © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik                          33
Area 2: Investment Agreements and Investor Contracts

•  Pre-establishment Rights
•  Exclusion of Performance Requirements
•  National Treatment
                                                              (Deviations from)
•  Most Favoured Nation Treatment                             National Policies
•  Fair and Equitable Treatment
•  Prohibition of Expropriation without compensation
•  Right to Products Export
                                                              (Deviations from)
•  National Security (food security)                             Investment
•  Safeguards                                                   Agreements
•  Dispute Settlement
•  Local content rules
                                                                 Stabilisation
•  Social and environmental conditions                             clauses
•  Infrastructure, compulsory CSR
•  Risk insurance/set aside funds (for mitigation failure)

 34	
  
          © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik                 34
Opportunities for Development Cooperation
•  Support of international Code of Conduct
•  Support for formulation of investment agreements
•  Support to creating specific Corporate Social Responsibility
•  Support to sectoral initiatives and (soft) standards
•  Support for creating international transparency and “intelligence”
•  Support of national policy coordination, including transparency
•  Support of (selected) national policies and strategies
•  Support of investor contract design, moderation and arbitration of contract
   negotiations and implementation
•  Advocacy for rural communities and neglected interests
•  Selective support of contract implementation, e.g. by support of local farmers
   and communities in making best use of new opportunities and avoid or mitigate
   negative effects, connecting research, extension, BDS and investor schemes




  35	
  
           © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik                     35
Conflicts over land and water: The role of large scale
investors in Africa - Risks




                               Tanja Pickardt
                 University of Cologne, 14 November 2011
Structure

 •  Background: Investments in land
        Extent	
  
        Risks	
  
        Reasons	
  for	
  low	
  level	
  of	
  partcipa7on	
  of	
  the	
  popula7on	
  


 – Examples from the field
        Mali	
  
        Namibia	
  
„Land Grabbing“: Media attention
Global in-
     vestment
     in land




Source: HLPE 2011, p. 15.
Large-scale land acquisitions and leases, reported area




      In developing countries, 227
       million hectares of land has
       been reported to be sold or
            leased since 2001.
                        (Oxfam / Land Matrix Partnership 2011)
Regional distribution and production orientation of
                   large scale investments in land




Source:
Deininger et al.
(2010)
Actor	
               Mo(ve	
                                               Country	
  of	
  origin:	
                  Country	
  of	
  origin:	
  
                                                                            characteris(cs	
                            examples	
  
State	
           Sa7sfy	
  the	
  rapidly	
  rising	
  demand	
   High	
  popula7on	
  pressure	
                      South	
  Korea,	
  Japan,	
  
State-­‐owned	
   for	
  food,	
  fodder	
  crops	
  and	
         Strong	
  economic	
  growth	
                       China,	
  Vietnam,	
  
enterprises	
   agricultural	
  commodi7es	
                                                                            South	
  Africa	
  

State	
           Reduce	
  dependency	
  on	
  world	
                     Food	
  impor7ng	
  countries	
  with	
     Bahrain,	
  Libya,	
  
State-­‐owned	
   market	
  by	
  cul7va7ng	
  own	
  food	
                limited	
  land	
  and	
  water	
           Kuwait,	
  Katar,	
  Saudi	
  
enterprises	
   abroad	
                                                    resources,	
  but	
  high	
  capital	
      Arabia	
  
                                                                            endowment	
  thanks	
  to	
  oil	
  
                                                                            extrac7on	
  
State	
               Reduce	
  dependency	
  from	
  limited	
   Promo7on	
  instruments	
  for	
          USA,	
  EU	
  member	
  
                      available	
  oil	
  resources	
             investments	
  from	
  industrialised	
   states	
  
                      Mi7gate	
  climate	
  change	
  effects	
   countries	
  
                      (focus	
  on	
  renewable	
  resources)	
  

Private	
  Sector	
   Secure	
  land	
  for	
  the	
  cul7va7on	
  of	
     Entrepreneurs	
  from	
                     USA,	
  EU	
  member	
  
                      agricultural	
  commodi7es,	
  to	
                   industrialised,	
  emerging	
  and	
        states,	
  emerging	
  
                      profit	
  from	
  high	
  world	
  market	
            developing	
  countries,	
                  and	
  developing	
  
                      prices	
                                              investment	
  agencies	
                    countries	
  
Private	
  Sector	
   To	
  realize	
  short	
  term	
  gains	
  from	
   Entrepreneurs	
  from	
                       USA,	
  EU	
  member	
  
                      land	
  specula7on	
                                industrialised,	
  emerging	
  and	
          states,	
  emerging	
  
                                                                          developing	
  countries,	
                    and	
  developing	
  
                                                                          investment	
  agencies	
                      countries	
  
Large-scale land investments: Risks

•  Food	
  security	
  and	
  water	
  supply	
  endangered:	
  Poten(al	
  human	
  right	
  
   viola(on	
  	
  
•  Rese]lement	
  without	
  compensa7on,	
  forced	
  evic7ons:	
  Human	
  right	
  
   viola(on	
  	
  
•  Aggrava7on	
  of	
  land	
  conflicts:	
  Increased	
  rural	
  exodus	
  	
  
•  Local	
  jobs	
  at	
  risk:	
  Deteriora(on	
  of	
  livelihoods	
  	
  
•  Race	
  to	
  the	
  bo]om:	
  Nega(ve	
  impacts	
  on	
  human	
  livelihoods,	
  
   environment,	
  ecosystems	
  
•  Discrepancy	
  between	
  the	
  availability	
  of	
  produc7ve	
  land	
  and	
  the	
  supply	
  
   of	
  water	
  for	
  irriga7on:	
  Overconsump(on	
  of	
  water,	
  nega(ve	
  impacts	
  on	
  
   downstream	
  users,	
  nega(ve	
  impacts	
  on	
  ecosystems	
  
•  Insufficient	
  contractual	
  provisions:	
  Nega(ve	
  effects	
  on	
  na(onal	
  
   economies	
  
          Many	
  of	
  those	
  risks	
  occur	
  due	
  to	
  a	
  lack	
  of	
  par7cipa7on	
  of	
  the	
  
            affected	
  popula7on	
  in	
  decision-­‐making	
  and	
  nego7a7on	
  
Reasons for a lack of participation of the local population in
             negotiation, planning and implementation	
  
•  Informa7on	
  asymmetry	
  and	
  power	
  imbalances	
  between	
  the	
  
   investor,	
  the	
  government	
  and	
  the	
  affected	
  popula7on	
  (the	
  local	
  
   popula7on	
  is	
  ocen	
  not	
  informed	
  about	
  their	
  rights)	
  
•  Lack	
  of	
  informa7on	
  on	
  the	
  land	
  rights	
  situa7on	
  (statutory	
  law	
  vs.	
  
   tradi7onal	
  land	
  rights)	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  on	
  sectoral	
  plans	
  
•  Corrup7on	
  
•  Level	
  of	
  par7cipa7on:	
  ocen	
  communi7es	
  are	
  “consulted”	
  and	
  give	
  
   their	
  consent	
  without	
  being	
  properly	
  informed	
  and	
  involved	
  in	
  the	
  
   planning	
  process.	
  Principle	
  of	
  free,	
  prior	
  and	
  informed	
  consent	
  ?	
  
   What	
  level	
  of	
  par7cipa7on	
  is	
  adequate	
  ?	
  
•  Not	
  all	
  interest	
  groups	
  do	
  have	
  legi7mate	
  representa7ves,	
  if	
  
   par7cipa7on	
  takes	
  place	
  
Case	
  study	
  1:	
  Interior	
  Delta	
  of	
  the	
  Niger	
  River,	
  Mali	
  




           Source: http://fr.wikipedia.org
Investment	
  projects	
  




Source: A. Sangaré: Etude rélative à l’établissement d’un bilan des ressources en eau
Water	
  demand	
  and	
  contractual	
  arrangements	
  in	
  the	
  Interior	
  Delta	
  of	
  
                                 the	
  Niger	
  River	
  	
  

•  100	
  000	
  out	
  of	
  1.8	
  Mio.	
  ha	
  presently	
  cul7vated	
  (up	
  to	
  350.000	
  ha	
  are	
  
   es7mated	
  to	
  have	
  irriga7on	
  poten7al	
  )	
  
•  The	
  total	
  number	
  of	
  awarded	
  contracts	
  is	
  es7mated	
  to	
  cover	
  761.000	
  ha.	
  4	
  
   contracts	
  with	
  interna7onal	
  investors	
  are	
  known	
  to	
  be	
  signed,	
  with	
  a	
  total	
  
   surface	
  area	
  of	
  156.000	
  ha.	
  All	
  four	
  investments	
  have	
  commenced	
  or	
  are	
  
   about	
  to	
  start.	
  	
  
•  The	
  new	
  investments	
  foresee	
  two	
  cul7va7on	
  periods	
  /	
  year	
  for	
  rice,	
  other	
  
   cereals	
  and	
  sugar	
  cane	
  	
  
•  Sufficient	
  water	
  availability	
  during	
  rainy	
  season	
  (June	
  –	
  December)	
  
BUT	
  
•  Water	
  deficiency	
  in	
  dry	
  season	
  (January	
  –	
  Mai)	
  already	
  at	
  present:	
  cri7cal	
  
   mark	
  (40m³/s)	
  is	
  regularly	
  exceeded	
  (especially	
  due	
  to	
  sugar	
  cane	
  and	
  rice	
  
   cul7va7on)	
  
•  Only	
  2	
  of	
  the	
  exis7ng	
  investment	
  contracts	
  make	
  provision	
  for	
  water	
  
   rights;	
  those	
  require	
  more	
  than	
  half	
  of	
  the	
  dry	
  season’s	
  cri7cal	
  reserve,	
  as	
  
   well	
  as	
  exclusivity	
  of	
  service	
  in	
  emergency	
  situa7on	
  
Case	
  study	
  2:	
  Overlapping	
  sectoral	
  planning,	
  unclear	
  responsibili7es	
  and	
  lack	
  
of	
  informa7on,	
  Namibia	
  
Caprivi	
  Region	
  
                                                  ?



                         Small	
  Scale	
  Commercial	
  
                         Farming	
  Areas	
  

                         Na7onal	
  Park	
  and	
  
                         Conservancies	
  

                         Irriga7on	
  Scheme	
  

                        Agro-­‐industrial	
  Planta7on	
  
                        (Interna7onal	
  Investor)	
  
Thank you for your attention !

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Präsentation fh sesssion2_gesamt

  • 1. Lecture Series Monday, 14.11.2011 Con icts over land and water: The role of The Water-Energy-Food large scale investors in Africa   Security Nexus Winter Semester 2011 / 2012 Dr. Michael Brüntrup, German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik Tanja Pickardt Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit
  • 2. Conflicts over land and water: The role of large scale investors in Africa Michael Brüntrup, DIE Lecture Series „The Water-Energy-Food Security Nexus“ Winter Semester 2011 / 2012 Cologne, 14. November 2011 2   © 2008 Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik 2
  • 3. Background – reasons for growing large scale land acquisitions •  The boom of mainly government-induced biofuel policies in several countries •  Rising world food market prices since about 2005, particularly since food price crisis 2007/08 - food security - profits •  Search of financial investors for alternative investments, possibly long-term, stable, and countercyclical to increasingly volatile and risky traditional financial products •  Sale of certificates for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) •  With rising oil and energy prices, biomass becomes an interesting (not policy induced) feedstock for energy production and petrochemical industry •  Land speculation •  Globalisation of agricultural trade (demand, information, standards ..) •  Technology development (overcoming small farmer advantages) 3   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 3
  • 4. Actors involved in LSLA Inter- Transnational organisations National Investor Government sector structures National NGOs Rural households -displaced -workers Districts Traditional/ -losers of -contract Lokal indigenous access to NR farmers authorities -other locals Local -downstream communities water users -in-migrants 4   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 4
  • 5. Opportunities of LSLA •  Access to new, high price, high value addition markets •  Large marketing capacities •  Access to and favourable conditions to capital/credit, some of which handed over to local actors (contract farming) •  Infrastructure investments, some for co-use by local actors •  Access to and development of new technologies, some of which handed over to local actors (contract farming) •  Better soil fertility management (nutrient balance) •  Co-generation of and better adaptation to public regulation and private standards •  New networking opportunities •  Formal, often relatively well paid and secured jobs •  Indirect effects (up- and downstream sectors, demand) •  Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) projects •  Local taxes and levies 5   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 5
  • 6. Opportunities •  Access to new, high price, high value addition markets •  Large marketing capacities •  Access to and favourable conditions to capital/credit, some of which handed over to local actors (contract farming) •  Infrastructure investments, some for co-use by local actors •  Access to and development of new technologies, some of which handed over to local actors (contract farming) •  Better soil fertility management (nutrient balance) •  Co-generation of and better adaptation to public regulation and private standards •  New networking opportunities •  Formal, often relatively well paid and secured jobs •  Indirect effects (up- and downstream sectors, demand) •  Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) projects •  Local taxes and levies 6   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 6
  • 7. Dynamics of agricultural trade, Subsahara Africa and World Aksoy / Akaman (2010) 7   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 7
  • 8. To capture more of value addition in a market chain, farmers need to invest and organise UNCTAD (n.d.) 8   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 8
  • 9. Agricultural commodity prices are only a fraction of total food cost in agro-industry value chains (example: USA) Rozanski / Thompson1 (2011) 9   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 9
  • 10. To access many of these markets, supplies have to be … competitive of constant, reliable high quantity of high, constant apperance and quality increasingly traceable Aksoy / Akaman (2010) 10   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 10
  • 11. Dynamics in markets Aksoy / Akaman (2010) 11   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 11
  • 12. Importance of domestic markets in SSA Romanik (2006) 12   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 12
  • 13. But also these markets are … Romanik (2006) increasingly semi-formal and formal (supermarket) channels screened and controlled for quality and conformity 13   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 13
  • 14. Opportunities •  Access to new, high price, high value addition markets •  Large marketing capacities •  Access to and favourable conditions to capital/credit, some of which handed over to local actors (contract farming) •  Infrastructure investments, some for co-use by local actors •  Access to and development of new technologies, some of which handed over to local actors (contract farming) •  Better soil fertility management (nutrient balance) •  Co-generation of and better adaptation to public and private standards •  New networking opportunities •  Formal, often relatively well paid and secured jobs •  Indirect effects (up- and downstream sectors, demand) •  Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) projects •  Local taxes and levies 14   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 14
  • 15. Smallholders are constrained by access to and unfavourable conditions for capital • High transaction costs for both borrowers and lenders • Generally lower population density and dispersed demand • Often limited economic opportunities available to local populations • High risks faced by potential borrowers and depositors due to the variability of incomes, exogenous economic shocks and limited tools to manage risk • Seasonality – potentially affecting both the client and the institution • Heavy concentration on agriculture and agriculture related activities exposes clients and institutions to multiple risks, both idiosyncratic (one household) and covariant (entire region or country) • Lack of reliable information about borrowers • Lack of market information and/or market access • Weak institutional capacity – including poor governance and operating systems, low staff and management skills • “Crowding out” effect due to subsidies and directed credit • Increased risks associated with the concentration of a portfolio on agriculture activities that are most prevalent in the area • Lack of adequate or usable collateral (lack of assets, unclear property rights) • Risk of political intervention, which can undermine payment morale through debt forgiveness and interest rate caps • Inhospitable policy, legal and regulatory frameworks • Undeveloped legal systems, inadequate contract enforcement mechanisms • Undeveloped or inadequate infrastructure Andrews (2006) • Land held may be too small to be sustainable or located too remotely to be reached efficiently 15   • Individuals may be dependent upon only one crop with no other external sources of income12 © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 15
  • 16. Opportunities •  Access to new, high price, high value addition markets •  Large marketing capacities •  Access to and favourable conditions to capital/credit, some of which handed over to local actors (contract farming) •  Infrastructure investments, some for co-use by local actors •  Access to and development of new technologies, some of which handed over to local actors (contract farming) •  Better soil fertility management (nutrient balance) •  Co-generation of and better adaptation to public regulation and private standards •  New networking opportunities •  Formal, often relatively well paid and secured jobs •  Indirect effects (up- and downstream sectors, demand) •  Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) projects •  Local taxes and levies 16   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 16
  • 17. Infrastructure is indispensable, costly and beyond smallholder, often even government capacities African Development Bang Group (2011) 17   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 17
  • 18. Opportunities •  Access to new, high price, high value addition markets •  Large marketing capacities •  Access to and favourable conditions to capital/credit, some of which handed over to local actors (contract farming) •  Infrastructure investments, some for co-use by local actors •  Access to and development of new technologies, some of which handed over to local actors (contract farming) •  Better soil fertility management (nutrient balance) •  Co-generation of and better adaptation to public regulation and private standards •  New networking opportunities •  Formal, often relatively well paid and secured jobs •  Indirect effects (up- and downstream sectors, demand) •  Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) projects •  Local taxes and levies 18   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 18
  • 19. Typical improved technologies and obstacles to adoption by African smallholders Odoemenem / Obinne (2010) 19   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 19
  • 20. Opportunities •  Access to new, high price, high value addition markets •  Large marketing capacities •  Access to and favourable conditions to capital/credit, some of which handed over to local actors (contract farming) •  Infrastructure investments, some for co-use by local actors •  Access to and development of new technologies, some of which handed over to local actors (contract farming) •  Better soil fertility management (nutrient balance) •  Co-generation of and better adaptation to public and private standards •  New networking opportunities •  Formal, often relatively well paid and secured jobs •  Indirect effects (up- and downstream sectors, demand) •  Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) projects •  Local taxes and levies 20   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 20
  • 21. Also under low-input smallholder agriculture, soil degradation can be a serious problem Reich / Eswaran (2004) 21   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 21
  • 22. Opportunities •  Access to new, high price, high value addition markets •  Large marketing capacities •  Access to and favourable conditions to capital/credit, some of which handed over to local actors (contract farming) •  Infrastructure investments, some for co-use by local actors •  Access to and development of new technologies, some of which handed over to local actors (contract farming) •  Better soil fertility management (nutrient balance) •  Co-generation of and better adaptation to public and private standards •  New networking opportunities •  Formal, often relatively well paid and secured jobs •  Indirect effects (up- and downstream sectors, demand) •  Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) projects •  Local taxes and levies 22   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 22
  • 23. Opportunities •  Access to new, high price, high value addition markets •  Large marketing capacities •  Access to and favourable conditions to capital/credit, some of which handed over to local actors (contract farming) •  Infrastructure investments, some for co-use by local actors •  Access to and development of new technologies, some of which handed over to local actors (contract farming) •  Better soil fertility management (nutrient balance) •  Co-generation of and better adaptation to public and private standards •  New networking opportunities •  Formal, often relatively well paid and secured jobs •  Indirect effects (up- and downstream sectors, demand) •  Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) projects •  Local taxes and levies 23   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 23
  • 24. Opportunities •  Access to new, high price, high value addition markets •  Large marketing capacities •  Access to and favourable conditions to capital/credit, some of which handed over to local actors (contract farming) •  Infrastructure investments, some for co-use by local actors •  Access to and development of new technologies, some of which handed over to local actors (contract farming) •  Better soil fertility management (nutrient balance) •  Co-generation of and better adaptation to public and private standards •  New networking opportunities •  Formal, often relatively well paid and secured jobs •  Indirect effects (up- and downstream sectors, demand) •  Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) projects •  Local taxes and levies 24   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 24
  • 25. Agricultural wage labour is paid badly, but they earn better than many smallholders “From Mozambique to Malawi, Zambia to Ethiopia, sugar offers a lifeline for countless families who work on sugar plantations or grow sugar themselves. They earn enough to send their children to school, to buy food to feed them, and to obtain at least some of the essential medicines they need to treat them when they fall sick. “ In Sofala province in central Mozambique, employment figures have doubled since the rehabilitation of two large sugar estates. As a result of trade in sugar, Sofala has been transformed from the province with the highest poverty headcount in 1996-97, to the province with the lowest incidence of poverty in 2002-03. This success story could be repeated across the continent. ‘Cutting sugar cane is difficult. I was not “Salaries in the sugar sector are low. very good when I started but I am better This is particularly true for farm now, faster. At the end of six months, if labourers and even more so for they say I can keep working then I will. I labourers employed by smallholder need to earn money to support the family. farmers. The latter are generally Things are difficult here – I still get employed on far worse terms than blistered hands and the money is not really workers on the sugar estates.” Oxfam (2004) enough, but I am glad to have a job.’ 25   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 25
  • 26. Opportunities •  Access to new, high price, high value addition markets •  Large marketing capacities •  Access to and favourable conditions to capital/credit, some of which handed over to local actors (contract farming) •  Infrastructure investments, some for co-use by local actors •  Access to and development of new technologies, some of which handed over to local actors (contract farming) •  Better soil fertility management (nutrient balance) •  Co-generation of and better adaptation to public and private standards •  New networking opportunities •  Formal, often relatively well paid and secured jobs •  Indirect effects (up- and downstream sectors, demand) •  Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) projects •  Local taxes and levies 26   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 26
  • 27. Large scale farms can create vibrant rural economies through second-round effects, CSR and local taxes Oxfam (2004) 27   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 27
  • 28. Threats •  Unequal power and knowledge of negotiation partners (agro-industries, farmers, communities, governments)  unfair contracts •  Detrimental interference of governments (corruption, neo-patrimonialism, politics), but also over-protection •  Displacement of non-permanent users of natural resources (vegetation, water, culture, ) •  Expulsion of land owners without proper compensation •  Environmental degradation, particularly biodiversity, but also water, pesticides, soils •  Structural monocultures,  dependencies of workers and outgrowers + dependencies of sub-regions •  Unbalanced distribution of profits, inequity •  Investment ruins with degraded ecological, economic and/or social environments 28   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 28
  • 29. Investor – rural population relations •  Land reallocation •  Jobs (quantity, quality, wages, origin/local preferences) •  Inclusive smallholder schemes •  Contracts (markets) •  Quality and process management •  Credit •  Inputs (including water) •  Production •  Diversification •  Surplus sharing •  Capital participation (land for shares) •  Local taxes and levies •  Corporate Soicial Responsibility (CSR) projects •  Mutual political protection/advocacy •  Neo-patrimonial, patron-client relations •  Food availability components (attention to local suppliers!) 29   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 29
  • 30. Time dimension and problem/conflict hotspots F a i l u r e 30   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 30
  • 31. Government responsibilities Principles (human right to food): Respect, protect, fulfil P Participation A Accountability N Non-Diskrimination T Transparency H Human dignity E Empowerment R Rule of Law •  Facilitate prior informed consent: •  (Help) Check large investors (reputation, demos, finances, business plans…) •  Provide model contracts •  Facilitate negotiations •  …. •  No disappropriation for private interests, fair compensation (land for land, compulsory CSR, local taxes and levies ….) •  Policy coordination and key infrastructure (see below) •  International treaties, agreements, contracts (see below) •  Dispute settlement (monitoring, bankruptcy laws, ombudsman, funds, courts, mediation, advisory services, …) 31   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 31
  • 32. Policy areas for influencing impacts of large scale land investments Taxation Labour Economic Outward oriented policies development (investment, trade, etc.) Food Security Investor contracts Rural development Infrastructure Land use planning Land+Water+other NR Input/Output markets Agriculture Environment Corporate Social Responsibility; CSR Primary  produc7on   Processing   Marke7ng   32   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 32
  • 33. Area 1: The rural development and food security complex •  Coherent, inclusive policies and strategies (food security > fair benefit sharing > inclusive growth) •  Farmer and community organisation empowerment •  Research (for supporting planning and decision making) •  Rights on land and natural resources and their transfers (property and rights, registration, valuation, taxation, markets, litigation, …) •  Water and other natural resources management •  Multi-sector, multi-level land use planning •  Agricultural value chain development •  Linkage programmes •  Reliable food markets (infrastructure, information, storage, …) •  Rural development hubs •  Special regards on vulnerable, displaced and losing groups 33   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 33
  • 34. Area 2: Investment Agreements and Investor Contracts •  Pre-establishment Rights •  Exclusion of Performance Requirements •  National Treatment (Deviations from) •  Most Favoured Nation Treatment National Policies •  Fair and Equitable Treatment •  Prohibition of Expropriation without compensation •  Right to Products Export (Deviations from) •  National Security (food security) Investment •  Safeguards Agreements •  Dispute Settlement •  Local content rules Stabilisation •  Social and environmental conditions clauses •  Infrastructure, compulsory CSR •  Risk insurance/set aside funds (for mitigation failure) 34   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 34
  • 35. Opportunities for Development Cooperation •  Support of international Code of Conduct •  Support for formulation of investment agreements •  Support to creating specific Corporate Social Responsibility •  Support to sectoral initiatives and (soft) standards •  Support for creating international transparency and “intelligence” •  Support of national policy coordination, including transparency •  Support of (selected) national policies and strategies •  Support of investor contract design, moderation and arbitration of contract negotiations and implementation •  Advocacy for rural communities and neglected interests •  Selective support of contract implementation, e.g. by support of local farmers and communities in making best use of new opportunities and avoid or mitigate negative effects, connecting research, extension, BDS and investor schemes 35   © 2008 Deutsches Institut f¸r Entwicklungspolitik 35
  • 36. Conflicts over land and water: The role of large scale investors in Africa - Risks Tanja Pickardt University of Cologne, 14 November 2011
  • 37. Structure •  Background: Investments in land   Extent     Risks     Reasons  for  low  level  of  partcipa7on  of  the  popula7on   – Examples from the field   Mali     Namibia  
  • 39. Global in- vestment in land Source: HLPE 2011, p. 15.
  • 40. Large-scale land acquisitions and leases, reported area In developing countries, 227 million hectares of land has been reported to be sold or leased since 2001. (Oxfam / Land Matrix Partnership 2011)
  • 41. Regional distribution and production orientation of large scale investments in land Source: Deininger et al. (2010)
  • 42. Actor   Mo(ve   Country  of  origin:   Country  of  origin:   characteris(cs   examples   State   Sa7sfy  the  rapidly  rising  demand   High  popula7on  pressure   South  Korea,  Japan,   State-­‐owned   for  food,  fodder  crops  and   Strong  economic  growth   China,  Vietnam,   enterprises   agricultural  commodi7es   South  Africa   State   Reduce  dependency  on  world   Food  impor7ng  countries  with   Bahrain,  Libya,   State-­‐owned   market  by  cul7va7ng  own  food   limited  land  and  water   Kuwait,  Katar,  Saudi   enterprises   abroad   resources,  but  high  capital   Arabia   endowment  thanks  to  oil   extrac7on   State   Reduce  dependency  from  limited   Promo7on  instruments  for   USA,  EU  member   available  oil  resources   investments  from  industrialised   states   Mi7gate  climate  change  effects   countries   (focus  on  renewable  resources)   Private  Sector   Secure  land  for  the  cul7va7on  of   Entrepreneurs  from   USA,  EU  member   agricultural  commodi7es,  to   industrialised,  emerging  and   states,  emerging   profit  from  high  world  market   developing  countries,   and  developing   prices   investment  agencies   countries   Private  Sector   To  realize  short  term  gains  from   Entrepreneurs  from   USA,  EU  member   land  specula7on   industrialised,  emerging  and   states,  emerging   developing  countries,   and  developing   investment  agencies   countries  
  • 43. Large-scale land investments: Risks •  Food  security  and  water  supply  endangered:  Poten(al  human  right   viola(on     •  Rese]lement  without  compensa7on,  forced  evic7ons:  Human  right   viola(on     •  Aggrava7on  of  land  conflicts:  Increased  rural  exodus     •  Local  jobs  at  risk:  Deteriora(on  of  livelihoods     •  Race  to  the  bo]om:  Nega(ve  impacts  on  human  livelihoods,   environment,  ecosystems   •  Discrepancy  between  the  availability  of  produc7ve  land  and  the  supply   of  water  for  irriga7on:  Overconsump(on  of  water,  nega(ve  impacts  on   downstream  users,  nega(ve  impacts  on  ecosystems   •  Insufficient  contractual  provisions:  Nega(ve  effects  on  na(onal   economies    Many  of  those  risks  occur  due  to  a  lack  of  par7cipa7on  of  the   affected  popula7on  in  decision-­‐making  and  nego7a7on  
  • 44. Reasons for a lack of participation of the local population in negotiation, planning and implementation   •  Informa7on  asymmetry  and  power  imbalances  between  the   investor,  the  government  and  the  affected  popula7on  (the  local   popula7on  is  ocen  not  informed  about  their  rights)   •  Lack  of  informa7on  on  the  land  rights  situa7on  (statutory  law  vs.   tradi7onal  land  rights)  as  well  as  on  sectoral  plans   •  Corrup7on   •  Level  of  par7cipa7on:  ocen  communi7es  are  “consulted”  and  give   their  consent  without  being  properly  informed  and  involved  in  the   planning  process.  Principle  of  free,  prior  and  informed  consent  ?   What  level  of  par7cipa7on  is  adequate  ?   •  Not  all  interest  groups  do  have  legi7mate  representa7ves,  if   par7cipa7on  takes  place  
  • 45. Case  study  1:  Interior  Delta  of  the  Niger  River,  Mali   Source: http://fr.wikipedia.org
  • 46. Investment  projects   Source: A. Sangaré: Etude rélative à l’établissement d’un bilan des ressources en eau
  • 47. Water  demand  and  contractual  arrangements  in  the  Interior  Delta  of   the  Niger  River     •  100  000  out  of  1.8  Mio.  ha  presently  cul7vated  (up  to  350.000  ha  are   es7mated  to  have  irriga7on  poten7al  )   •  The  total  number  of  awarded  contracts  is  es7mated  to  cover  761.000  ha.  4   contracts  with  interna7onal  investors  are  known  to  be  signed,  with  a  total   surface  area  of  156.000  ha.  All  four  investments  have  commenced  or  are   about  to  start.     •  The  new  investments  foresee  two  cul7va7on  periods  /  year  for  rice,  other   cereals  and  sugar  cane     •  Sufficient  water  availability  during  rainy  season  (June  –  December)   BUT   •  Water  deficiency  in  dry  season  (January  –  Mai)  already  at  present:  cri7cal   mark  (40m³/s)  is  regularly  exceeded  (especially  due  to  sugar  cane  and  rice   cul7va7on)   •  Only  2  of  the  exis7ng  investment  contracts  make  provision  for  water   rights;  those  require  more  than  half  of  the  dry  season’s  cri7cal  reserve,  as   well  as  exclusivity  of  service  in  emergency  situa7on  
  • 48. Case  study  2:  Overlapping  sectoral  planning,  unclear  responsibili7es  and  lack   of  informa7on,  Namibia  
  • 49. Caprivi  Region   ? Small  Scale  Commercial   Farming  Areas   Na7onal  Park  and   Conservancies   Irriga7on  Scheme   Agro-­‐industrial  Planta7on   (Interna7onal  Investor)  
  • 50. Thank you for your attention !