War and Peace in the 21st century, or Will the World Collapse in the Next 10-15 Years? Why? How?

War and PeaceWar and Peace in the 21in the 21stst
centurycentury
Science, Art, and Practice of War and PeaceScience, Art, and Practice of War and Peace
MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) PhilosophyMAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) Philosophy
Post-Information Age > Post-Nuclear Epoch > Post-Human EraPost-Information Age > Post-Nuclear Epoch > Post-Human Era
Rise and Dominance of Peace-Making Intelligent MachineryRise and Dominance of Peace-Making Intelligent Machinery
“All men are always at war with on another”“All men are always at war with on another”
Will the World Collapse in the Next 10-15 Years? Why? How?Will the World Collapse in the Next 10-15 Years? Why? How?
Next World 2.0 Scenario:Next World 2.0 Scenario:
Fourth-generation Technological Revolution or Fourth-generation Warfare, global hybrid warsFourth-generation Technological Revolution or Fourth-generation Warfare, global hybrid wars
characterized by a blurring of the lines between war and politics, soldiers and civilians.characterized by a blurring of the lines between war and politics, soldiers and civilians.
WAR IS AN ABSOLUTE EVIL, PEACE IS AN ABSOLUTE GOODWAR IS AN ABSOLUTE EVIL, PEACE IS AN ABSOLUTE GOOD
AzamatAzamat Sh.Sh. AbdoullaevAbdoullaev
http://http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/eis-global-innovation-platformwww.slideshare.net/ashabook/eis-global-innovation-platform
EU, RUSSIA, 2016

The Future World Evolution Roadmap
• WORLD 1.0 (Industrial World) :: Global
Community 1.0 > Society 1.0> Nation 1.0
> City 1.0 > Religion 1.0 > Science 1.0 >
Technology 1.0 > Economy 1.0 >
Industry 1.0 > Infrastructure 1.0 >
Network 1.0 > Telecom 1.0 > Internet 1.0
> Web 1.0 > Service 1.0 > Government
1.0 > Medicine 1.0 > Human 1.0 > War
1.0 > Peace 1.0 > Space 1.0 …>WORLD
0.0 (the World Collapse Scenario)
• WORLD 2.0 (Information World) ::
Global Community 2.0 > Society 2.0 >
Nation 2.0> City 2.0 > Religion 2.0 >
Science 2.0 > Technology 2.0 >
Economy 2.0 > Industry 2.0 >
Infrastructure 2.0 > Network 2.0 >
Telecom 2.0 > Internet 2.0 > Web 2.0 >
Service 2.0 > Government 2.0 >
Medicine 2.0 > Human 2.0 > War 2.0 >
Peace 2.0 > Space 2.0 …> WORLD 0.0
(the World Collapse Scenario)
• WORLD 3.0 (Smart World) :: Global
Community 3.0 > Society 3.0 > Nation 3.0>
City 3.0 > Science 3.0 > Technology 3.0 >
Economy 3.0 > Industry 3.0 > Infrastructure
3.0 > Network 3.0 > Telecom 3.0 > Internet
3.0 > Web 3.0 > Service 3.0 > Government 3.0
> Medicine 3.0 > Human 3.0 > War 3.0 >
Peace 3.0 > Space 3.0 …> POST-HUMAN
SINGULARITY WORLD
• WORLD X.0 :: Global Community X.0 >
Society X.0 > Nation X.0> City X.0 > Science
X.0 > Technology X.0 > Economy X.0 >
Industry X.0 > Infrastructure X.0 > Network
X.0 > Telecom X.0 > Internet X.0 > Web X.0
> Service X.0 > Government X.0 > Medicine
X.0 > Human X.0 > War X.0 > Peace X.0 > …
Space X.0
• NB. Next World 2.0 Scenario: Fourth-generation TechnologicalNB. Next World 2.0 Scenario: Fourth-generation Technological
Revolution or Fourth-generation Warfare, global hybrid warsRevolution or Fourth-generation Warfare, global hybrid wars
characterized by a blurring of the lines between war and politics,characterized by a blurring of the lines between war and politics,
states and non-states, soldiers and civilians.states and non-states, soldiers and civilians.
• NB. The process of rise-and-collapse of advanced civilizations at
pre-industrial, industrial and information stages is a recurrent
cycle, as it’s found throughout history.
• The geopolitical risks of the total Civilization Collapse disappear
only with the World 3.0, POST-WORLD.
•
WAR & PEACE All Rights Reserved Azamat Abdoullaev 2013-2016

If the Current World 2.0 is to CollapseIf the Current World 2.0 is to Collapse
• The world is a more dangerous place than itThe world is a more dangerous place than it
was a year ago according to the latestwas a year ago according to the latest
Global Peace Index (GPI) report from the Institute for Economics and Peace.Global Peace Index (GPI) report from the Institute for Economics and Peace.
• RANKRANK COUNTRYCOUNTRY SCORESCORE
• 11 SyriaSyria 3.8063.806
• 22 South SudanSouth Sudan 3.5933.593
• 33 IraqIraq 3.5703.570
• 44 AfghanistanAfghanistan 3.5383.538
• 55 SomaliaSomalia 3.4143.414
• 66 YemenYemen 3.3993.399
• 77 CARCAR 3.3543.354
• 88 UkraineUkraine 3.2873.287
• 99 SudanSudan 3.2693.269
• 1010 LibyaLibya 3.2003.200
• 1111 PakistanPakistan 3.1453.145
• 1212 CongoCongo 3.1123.112
• 1313 RussiaRussia 3.0793.079
• 1414 North KoreaNorth Korea 2.9442.944
• 1515 NigeriaNigeria 2.8772.877
• The report ranks 163 independent states based on how peacefulThe report ranks 163 independent states based on how peaceful
they are (or, conversely, how dangerous).they are (or, conversely, how dangerous).
• The 163 states cover over 99% of the world’s population and areThe 163 states cover over 99% of the world’s population and are
assessed using 23 indicators, normalised on a scale of 1-5. Theassessed using 23 indicators, normalised on a scale of 1-5. The
index measures global peace using three broad themes: the levelindex measures global peace using three broad themes: the level
of safety and security in society, the extent of domestic andof safety and security in society, the extent of domestic and
international conflict, and the degree of militarisationinternational conflict, and the degree of militarisation..
WAR & PEACE All Rights Reserved
Azamat Abdoullaev 2013-2016

The World History of Civilizational CollapsesThe World History of Civilizational Collapses
• Pax Assyriana in the Old Assyrian Empire (c.2025-1750 B.C.), thePax Assyriana in the Old Assyrian Empire (c.2025-1750 B.C.), the
Middle Assyrian Empire (1365-1050 BC), the Neo-Assyrian EmpireMiddle Assyrian Empire (1365-1050 BC), the Neo-Assyrian Empire
(911- 612 B.C.)(911- 612 B.C.)
• Pax Persiana (6Pax Persiana (6thth
century B.C. – 331 B.C.)century B.C. – 331 B.C.)
• Pax Hellenica (331 B.C. for about 300 years)Pax Hellenica (331 B.C. for about 300 years)
• Pax Romana in the Roman Empire (27 B.C. – A.D. 395)Pax Romana in the Roman Empire (27 B.C. – A.D. 395)
• Pax Romana in the Eastern Roman/Byzantium Empire (395-1453)Pax Romana in the Eastern Roman/Byzantium Empire (395-1453)
• Pax Romana in the Holy Roman Empire (962 -1806)Pax Romana in the Holy Roman Empire (962 -1806)
• Pax Ottomanica (1300 - 1919)Pax Ottomanica (1300 - 1919)
• Pax Mongolica (13 -15th centuries)Pax Mongolica (13 -15th centuries)
• Pax Britannica (1815 -1914)Pax Britannica (1815 -1914)
• Pax Sovietica (1918 - 1991)Pax Sovietica (1918 - 1991)
• Pax Europaea/Pax Americana (1950-2020)Pax Europaea/Pax Americana (1950-2020)

Perpetual War:Perpetual War: Homo Sapiens (man the wise) vsHomo Sapiens (man the wise) vs
Homo Barbarus (man the cruel)Homo Barbarus (man the cruel)
• Humanity “makes war for sake of peace”Humanity “makes war for sake of peace”
• “…“…14,500 wars have taken place between 350014,500 wars have taken place between 3500
BC and the late 20th century, costing 3.5BC and the late 20th century, costing 3.5
billion lives, leaving only 300 years of peacebillion lives, leaving only 300 years of peace
(Beer 1981: 20)."(Beer 1981: 20)."
• Homo sapiens is a great fiction and mythHomo sapiens is a great fiction and myth
• Humanity is in the stage of barbarism,Humanity is in the stage of barbarism,
between savagery and civilizationbetween savagery and civilization
• To be human is to be atrocious, barbarousTo be human is to be atrocious, barbarous
and brutal, cruel, merciless, rude, savage andand brutal, cruel, merciless, rude, savage and
untameduntamed
• War is somehow rooted in the nature ofWar is somehow rooted in the nature of
things, in the nature of man and in the naturethings, in the nature of man and in the nature
of communitiesof communities
• Plato, AristotlePlato, Aristotle
• War for human beings seems an inevitableWar for human beings seems an inevitable
thing, as ineradicable as disease and deaththing, as ineradicable as disease and death
• Conway W. Henderson (9 February 2010).
Understanding International Law. John Wiley & Sons.
pp. 212–. ISBN 978-1-4051-9764-9.
Deaths
(millions)
Date War
60.7–84.6 1939–1945 World War II (see World War II casualties)
60 13th century Mongol Conquests (see Mongol invasions and Tatar invasions)
40 1850–1864 Taiping Rebellion (see Dungan revolt)
39 1914–1918 World War I (see World War I casualties)
36 755–763 An Shi Rebellion (death toll uncertain)
25 1616–1662 Qing dynasty conquest of Ming dynasty
20 1937–1945 Second Sino-Japanese War
20 1370–1405 Conquests of Tamerlane
16 1862–1877 Dungan revolt
5–9 1917–1922 Russian Civil War and Foreign Intervention

Homo Sapience vs. Homo BarbarusHomo Sapience vs. Homo Barbarus
• The world is foolish in not understanding that all men are always at war with one anotherThe world is foolish in not understanding that all men are always at war with one another
• Plato’s LawsPlato’s Laws
• The whole of life is divided into two parts, business and leisure, war and peace…There must be war for the sake ofThe whole of life is divided into two parts, business and leisure, war and peace…There must be war for the sake of
peace…peace…
• AristotleAristotle
• War is a necessary corrective for the corrosive influence of peaceWar is a necessary corrective for the corrosive influence of peace
• HegelHegel
• When all the world is overcharged with inhabitants, then the last remedy of all is warWhen all the world is overcharged with inhabitants, then the last remedy of all is war
• HobbesHobbes
• War is not to be avoided, but is only deferred to your disadvantageWar is not to be avoided, but is only deferred to your disadvantage
• MachiavelliMachiavelli
• War is a rational instrument of foreign policyWar is a rational instrument of foreign policy
• ClausewitzClausewitz
• War is a calamity and social disaster, whether it is afflicted be one nation upon another or conceived of as afflictingWar is a calamity and social disaster, whether it is afflicted be one nation upon another or conceived of as afflicting
humanity as a whole …the aim of war is murder…humanity as a whole …the aim of war is murder…
• War and Peace, TolstoyWar and Peace, Tolstoy
• War is an absolute evil, destroying humanity to the rootWar is an absolute evil, destroying humanity to the root

Polemologia:Polemologia: Integrated Research of War and PeaceIntegrated Research of War and Peace
• Polemologia: Peace studies (irenology) + War studies (polemology)Polemologia: Peace studies (irenology) + War studies (polemology)
• Polemologia (Polemos + Logos) is the Multidisciplinary Science, Art, and Practice of War and Peace:Polemologia (Polemos + Logos) is the Multidisciplinary Science, Art, and Practice of War and Peace:
• Philosophy of War and PeacePhilosophy of War and Peace
• Theory of War and PeaceTheory of War and Peace
• Laws of War and PeaceLaws of War and Peace
• Institutions of War and PeaceInstitutions of War and Peace
• Technology of War and PeaceTechnology of War and Peace
• Conduct of War and PeaceConduct of War and Peace
• Measuring War and PeaceMeasuring War and Peace
• Mathematics (Game theory)Mathematics (Game theory)
• Military Science, Technology, Resources, National Defence Policy, National Security, Experimental and Demonstrative Warfare,Military Science, Technology, Resources, National Defence Policy, National Security, Experimental and Demonstrative Warfare,
etc.etc.
• Peace and conflict studies is a field which analyses violent and nonviolent behaviours, as well as the structural mechanisms attendingPeace and conflict studies is a field which analyses violent and nonviolent behaviours, as well as the structural mechanisms attending
violent and non violent social conflicts to understand the ways to a desirable human condition.violent and non violent social conflicts to understand the ways to a desirable human condition.
• Peace studies (irenology) is aiming at the prevention, de-escalation, and solution of conflicts.Peace studies (irenology) is aiming at the prevention, de-escalation, and solution of conflicts.
• War studies (polemology) is concerned with the attainment of victory in conflicts.War studies (polemology) is concerned with the attainment of victory in conflicts.
• The disciplines involved include political science, geography, economics, psychology, sociology, international relations, history,The disciplines involved include political science, geography, economics, psychology, sociology, international relations, history,
anthropology, religious studies, gender studies, and a variety of other disciplines.anthropology, religious studies, gender studies, and a variety of other disciplines.
• Wanting in the science of war and peace, humanity is tending to total destructionWanting in the science of war and peace, humanity is tending to total destruction
• “…“…14,500 wars have taken place between 3500 BC and the late 20th century, costing 3.5 billion lives,14,500 wars have taken place between 3500 BC and the late 20th century, costing 3.5 billion lives,
leaving only 300 years of peace."leaving only 300 years of peace."
•

War vs. PeaceWar vs. Peace
• What is War or Warfare?What is War or Warfare?
• An absence of peace, the tranquility of order, freedom from fear of violenceAn absence of peace, the tranquility of order, freedom from fear of violence
• A form of political violence or intervention marked by widespread armed conflict between political communitiesA form of political violence or intervention marked by widespread armed conflict between political communities
(states and/or non-state actors), extreme violence, ecological, social and economic destruction.(states and/or non-state actors), extreme violence, ecological, social and economic destruction.
• A contest among peoples of armed hostilities of duration and magnitudeA contest among peoples of armed hostilities of duration and magnitude
• An armed conflict between societies characterized by extreme hatred, violence, aggression, destruction, and mortality,An armed conflict between societies characterized by extreme hatred, violence, aggression, destruction, and mortality,
mutually destroying infrastructure, industries and communities, cities, states, and nations or humanity as a whole bymutually destroying infrastructure, industries and communities, cities, states, and nations or humanity as a whole by
means of military forces, weaponry and technologiesmeans of military forces, weaponry and technologies
• Ends of war: geopolitical expansion, conquest, empire or liberty, justice, honor and active peaceEnds of war: geopolitical expansion, conquest, empire or liberty, justice, honor and active peace
• What is Peace?What is Peace?
• Peace is the tranquility of order, freedom from fear of violence, pain and suffering, craving and aversion, disturbancePeace is the tranquility of order, freedom from fear of violence, pain and suffering, craving and aversion, disturbance
and agitation, riot and violence, a lack of conflict, the absence of hostility, compromise, communication and mutualand agitation, riot and violence, a lack of conflict, the absence of hostility, compromise, communication and mutual
understanding.understanding.
• Peace is a state of tranquility and stillness, as well as the absence of war or violence.Peace is a state of tranquility and stillness, as well as the absence of war or violence.
• Peace connotes compact, agreement, treaty of peace, tranquility, absence of hostility, harmony; various personalPeace connotes compact, agreement, treaty of peace, tranquility, absence of hostility, harmony; various personal
greetings (salaam or aloha) or farewell (RIP, rest in peace); justice, good health, safety, well-being, prosperity, equity,greetings (salaam or aloha) or farewell (RIP, rest in peace); justice, good health, safety, well-being, prosperity, equity,
security, good fortune, and friendliness.security, good fortune, and friendliness.
• Peaceful behavior is kind, considerate, respectful, just, and tolerant, manifesting goodwill.Peaceful behavior is kind, considerate, respectful, just, and tolerant, manifesting goodwill.
• Peaceful life is the peace of mind and bodyPeaceful life is the peace of mind and body
• True peace is freedom for knowledge and creation, science and technology, human development and total prosperity.True peace is freedom for knowledge and creation, science and technology, human development and total prosperity.
• War is destructive disruption, Peace is creative disruption.War is destructive disruption, Peace is creative disruption.

War vs. PeaceWar vs. Peace
• What is War or Warfare?What is War or Warfare?
• An absence of peace, the tranquility of order, freedom fromAn absence of peace, the tranquility of order, freedom from
fear of violencefear of violence
• A form of political violence or intervention marked byA form of political violence or intervention marked by
widespread armed conflict between political communitieswidespread armed conflict between political communities
(states and/or non-state actors), extreme violence, ecological,(states and/or non-state actors), extreme violence, ecological,
social and economic destruction.social and economic destruction.
• A contest among peoples of armed hostilities of durationA contest among peoples of armed hostilities of duration
and magnitudeand magnitude
• An armed conflict between societies characterized byAn armed conflict between societies characterized by
extreme hatred, violence, aggression, destruction, andextreme hatred, violence, aggression, destruction, and
mortality, mutually destroying infrastructure, industries andmortality, mutually destroying infrastructure, industries and
communities, cities, states, and nations or humanity as acommunities, cities, states, and nations or humanity as a
whole by means of military forces, weaponry andwhole by means of military forces, weaponry and
technologiestechnologies
• Ends of war:Ends of war:
• geopolitical expansion, conquest, empire or liberty, justice,geopolitical expansion, conquest, empire or liberty, justice,
honor and active peacehonor and active peace
• httpshttps://://
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outline_of_war#Warsen.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outline_of_war#Wars
• What is Peace?What is Peace?
• Peace is the tranquility of order, freedom from fear ofPeace is the tranquility of order, freedom from fear of
violence, pain and suffering, craving and aversion,violence, pain and suffering, craving and aversion,
disturbance and agitation, riot and violence, a lack ofdisturbance and agitation, riot and violence, a lack of
conflict, the absence of hostility, compromise, communicationconflict, the absence of hostility, compromise, communication
and mutual understanding.and mutual understanding.
• Peace is a state of tranquility and stillness, as well as thePeace is a state of tranquility and stillness, as well as the
absence of war or violence.absence of war or violence.
• Peace connotes compact, agreement, treaty of peace,Peace connotes compact, agreement, treaty of peace,
tranquility, absence of hostility, harmony; various personaltranquility, absence of hostility, harmony; various personal
greetings (salaam or aloha) or farewell (RIP, rest in peace);greetings (salaam or aloha) or farewell (RIP, rest in peace);
justice, good health, safety, well-being, prosperity, equity,justice, good health, safety, well-being, prosperity, equity,
security, good fortune, and friendliness.security, good fortune, and friendliness.
• Peaceful behavior is kind, considerate, respectful, just, andPeaceful behavior is kind, considerate, respectful, just, and
tolerant, manifesting goodwill.tolerant, manifesting goodwill.
• Peaceful life is the peace of mind and bodyPeaceful life is the peace of mind and body
• True peace is freedom for knowledge and creation, scienceTrue peace is freedom for knowledge and creation, science
and technology, human development and total prosperity.and technology, human development and total prosperity.
• War is destructive disruption, Peace is creative disruption.War is destructive disruption, Peace is creative disruption.
•

Kinds of WarKinds of War
• Just war vs. Unjust war of aggression: wars of defense vs. wars of conquestJust war vs. Unjust war of aggression: wars of defense vs. wars of conquest
• Religious wars: the propagation and defense of the faithReligious wars: the propagation and defense of the faith
• Class warClass war
• Civil war, a war between forces belonging to the same nation or political entityCivil war, a war between forces belonging to the same nation or political entity
• War between states or international warWar between states or international war
• International TerrorismInternational Terrorism
• Locally global proxy warLocally global proxy war
• World war, a global warfare involving all the world’s leading powersWorld war, a global warfare involving all the world’s leading powers
• Types of WarTypes of War
• Conventional warfare, in which nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons are not usedConventional warfare, in which nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons are not used
• Nuclear warfare, weapons are the primary method of achieving military victoryNuclear warfare, weapons are the primary method of achieving military victory
• Total war, warfare by any possible means, disregarding the laws of war, placing no limits on legitimate military targets, usingTotal war, warfare by any possible means, disregarding the laws of war, placing no limits on legitimate military targets, using
weapons and tactics resulting in significant civilian casualtiesweapons and tactics resulting in significant civilian casualties
• Unconventional warfare, to achieve military victory through acquiescence, capitulation, or clandestine support for one side of anUnconventional warfare, to achieve military victory through acquiescence, capitulation, or clandestine support for one side of an
existing conflictexisting conflict
• Asymmetric warfare, a conflict between two populations of different levels of military capability or size:Asymmetric warfare, a conflict between two populations of different levels of military capability or size:
1.1. Powerful states vs Primitive peoples: military expeditions, explorations, pacificationsPowerful states vs Primitive peoples: military expeditions, explorations, pacifications
2.2. Small states: interventions, reprisalsSmall states: interventions, reprisals
3.3. Internal groups: rebellions, insurrections, guerrilla warfareInternal groups: rebellions, insurrections, guerrilla warfare
• Cyberwarfare involves the actions by a nation-state or international organization to attack and attempt to damage another nation'sCyberwarfare involves the actions by a nation-state or international organization to attack and attempt to damage another nation's
information systemsinformation systems
• Hybrid warfare is a military strategy that combines conventional warfare, irregular warfare, terrorism, mass communicationHybrid warfare is a military strategy that combines conventional warfare, irregular warfare, terrorism, mass communication
propaganda and cyberwarfarepropaganda and cyberwarfareWAR & PEACE All Rights Reserved Azamat Abdoullaev 2013-2016

Causes and Effects of WarCauses and Effects of War
• Remote and proximate causes; real and seeming causesRemote and proximate causes; real and seeming causes
• Biological factors: competitive behavior, animal warfare, food, possession, rivelry, dominance, territory, aggressionBiological factors: competitive behavior, animal warfare, food, possession, rivelry, dominance, territory, aggression
• Psychological drives, complexes, false images, aggressivenessPsychological drives, complexes, false images, aggressiveness
• Social factors, socioeconomic systems of states,Social factors, socioeconomic systems of states,
• Political factors, political institutions, autocratic governmentsPolitical factors, political institutions, autocratic governments
• Economic factors, capitalism, new markets, natural resources, trade wars, sanctionsEconomic factors, capitalism, new markets, natural resources, trade wars, sanctions
• Nationalism, national self-determination, national interestsNationalism, national self-determination, national interests
• Religious factorsReligious factors
• Military factors, military policy, arms race, mobilization economy, military preparationsMilitary factors, military policy, arms race, mobilization economy, military preparations
• Special-interest groups:Special-interest groups:
• Politicians,Politicians,
• Capitalists and financiers,Capitalists and financiers,
• the military, military-industrial complex,the military, military-industrial complex,
• military scientists and technologistsmilitary scientists and technologists
• Effects of WarEffects of War
• Moral consequencesMoral consequences
• Political consequencesPolitical consequences
• Economic consequencesEconomic consequences
• Social consequences, Demographic consequences,…Social consequences, Demographic consequences,…

Measuring War and PeaceMeasuring War and Peace
• The Global Peace Index produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace is a known effort to evaluateThe Global Peace Index produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace is a known effort to evaluate
peacefulness in countries based on 23 indicators of the presence/absence of violence.peacefulness in countries based on 23 indicators of the presence/absence of violence.
• The last edition of the Index ranks 162 countries on their internal and external levels of peace.The last edition of the Index ranks 162 countries on their internal and external levels of peace.
• According to the 2015 Global Peace Index, Iceland is the most peaceful country in the world while Syria is theAccording to the 2015 Global Peace Index, Iceland is the most peaceful country in the world while Syria is the
least peaceful one.least peaceful one.
• Fragile States Index(formerly known as the Failed States Index) created by the Fund for Peace focuses on risk forFragile States Index(formerly known as the Failed States Index) created by the Fund for Peace focuses on risk for
instability or violence in 178 nations.instability or violence in 178 nations.
• This index measures how fragile a state is by 12 indicators and subindicators that evaluate aspects of politics, socialThis index measures how fragile a state is by 12 indicators and subindicators that evaluate aspects of politics, social
economy, and military facets in countries.economy, and military facets in countries.
• The 2015 Failed State Index reports that the most fragile nation is South Sudan, and the least fragile one isThe 2015 Failed State Index reports that the most fragile nation is South Sudan, and the least fragile one is
Finland.Finland.
• University of Maryland publishes the Peace and Conflict Instability Ledger to measure peace.University of Maryland publishes the Peace and Conflict Instability Ledger to measure peace.
• It grades 163 countries with 5 indicators, and pays the most attention to risk of political instability or armedIt grades 163 countries with 5 indicators, and pays the most attention to risk of political instability or armed
conflict over a three-year period. The most peaceful country is Slovenia, Afghanistan is the most conflicted nation.conflict over a three-year period. The most peaceful country is Slovenia, Afghanistan is the most conflicted nation.
• The Economist Intelligence Unit and George Mason University release indexes that rank countries in terms ofThe Economist Intelligence Unit and George Mason University release indexes that rank countries in terms of
peacefulness.peacefulness.

Global Peace and ViolenceGlobal Peace and Violence
• The Global Peace Index Records a Historically LessThe Global Peace Index Records a Historically Less
Peaceful and More Unequal WorldPeaceful and More Unequal World
• The 2016 Global Peace Index (GPI) shows the worldThe 2016 Global Peace Index (GPI) shows the world
became less peaceful in the last year, reinforcing thebecame less peaceful in the last year, reinforcing the
underlying trend of declining peace over the last decade.underlying trend of declining peace over the last decade.
Results also show a growing global inequality in peace, withResults also show a growing global inequality in peace, with
the most peaceful countries continuing to improve while thethe most peaceful countries continuing to improve while the
least peaceful are falling into greater violence and conflict.least peaceful are falling into greater violence and conflict.
• The 2016 GPI report provides a comprehensive update onThe 2016 GPI report provides a comprehensive update on
the state of peace. It shows that amidst the globalthe state of peace. It shows that amidst the global
deterioration the world continues to spend enormousdeterioration the world continues to spend enormous
resources on creating and containing violence but very littleresources on creating and containing violence but very little
on peace. The key to reversing the decline in peace is throughon peace. The key to reversing the decline in peace is through
building Positive Peace - a holistic framework of the keybuilding Positive Peace - a holistic framework of the key
attitudes, institutions and structures which build peace inattitudes, institutions and structures which build peace in
the long term.the long term.
• The economic impact of violence on the global economy inThe economic impact of violence on the global economy in
2015 was $13.6 trillion in purchasing power parity (PPP)2015 was $13.6 trillion in purchasing power parity (PPP)
terms. This figure represents 13.3 per cent of the world’sterms. This figure represents 13.3 per cent of the world’s
economic activity (gross world product) or $1,876 for everyeconomic activity (gross world product) or $1,876 for every
person in the world.person in the world.
• To put this in perspective, it is approximately 11 times theTo put this in perspective, it is approximately 11 times the
size of global foreign direct investment. Source: GPI 2016,size of global foreign direct investment. Source: GPI 2016,
httphttp://://
reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/GPI%202016%20Report_2.pdfreliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/GPI%202016%20Report_2.pdf
Global Reversibility Principle of the World
2013-2016 All Rights Reserved

The Control of War and PeaceThe Control of War and Peace
• DiplomacyDiplomacy, balance of power in the international system, equilibrium of armed forces, the total, balance of power in the international system, equilibrium of armed forces, the total
destruction of the all-out wardestruction of the all-out war
• Regional integrationRegional integration, NATO, NATO
• Interregional cooperationInterregional cooperation
• International lawInternational law, laws of war, legality and regulation, laws of war, legality and regulation
• The United NationsThe United Nations
• The League of Nations proposed by Kant and created at the Paris Peace Conference of 1919 as aThe League of Nations proposed by Kant and created at the Paris Peace Conference of 1919 as a
result of World War I; dissolved as a result of World War II and replaced by the United Nations.result of World War I; dissolved as a result of World War II and replaced by the United Nations.
• The UN is charged to maintain international peace an security. In the period, it also failing to stopThe UN is charged to maintain international peace an security. In the period, it also failing to stop
wars between countries and to provide a platform for dialogue, to facilitate cooperation inwars between countries and to provide a platform for dialogue, to facilitate cooperation in
international law, international security, economic development, social progress, human rights,international law, international security, economic development, social progress, human rights,
and achieving world peace.and achieving world peace.
• The World Government, it is possible because it is necessaryThe World Government, it is possible because it is necessary
• The UN is to be replaced by the World Federation of Nations; for either world government andThe UN is to be replaced by the World Federation of Nations; for either world government and
real peace or world anarchy and war.real peace or world anarchy and war.
• The danger of nuclear war of a general extermination of mankind is the last argument for “theThe danger of nuclear war of a general extermination of mankind is the last argument for “the
world government, which is necessary for the world”.world government, which is necessary for the world”. Dante, De MonarchiaDante, De Monarchia
• It should be instituted a single wise government comprising all mankind “by common law to leadIt should be instituted a single wise government comprising all mankind “by common law to lead
all toward peace”.all toward peace”. Kant. The Idea of a Universal History on a Cosmo-Political Plan.Kant. The Idea of a Universal History on a Cosmo-Political Plan.
• ““Things hate to be in disorder, but a plurality of authorities is disorder; therefore authority is single”. AristotleThings hate to be in disorder, but a plurality of authorities is disorder; therefore authority is single”. Aristotle
• WAR & PEACE All Rights Reserved Azamat Abdoullaev 2013-2016

Global Military Expenditures:Global Military Expenditures: “Making War for“Making War for
Sake of Peace”Sake of Peace”• World total - $1,676.0 Bn; 2.3% of GDPWorld total - $1,676.0 Bn; 2.3% of GDP
• Sources:Sources:
• "Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2015" (PDF).
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Retrieved 5 April 2016.
• International Institute for Strategic Studies (11 February
2015). The Military Balance 2015. London: Routledge.
ISBN 1857437667.
• "Top 15 Defence Budgets 2015".
International Institute for Strategic Studies. Retrieved 12
July 2016.
• For the period 2010-14, the United States was the world'sFor the period 2010-14, the United States was the world's
biggest exporter of major arms, accounting for 31 percentbiggest exporter of major arms, accounting for 31 percent
of global shares, followed by Russia with 27 percent.of global shares, followed by Russia with 27 percent.
• The USA delivered weapons to at least 94 recipients.The USA delivered weapons to at least 94 recipients.
• Permanent 5 Members of the UN Security Council:
China, France, Russian Federation, the United Kingdom,
and the United States, are the world's largest armsorld's largest arms
exportersexporters
• 2014 rank2014 rank SupplierSupplier Arms exportsArms exports
• 11 United StatesUnited States 1019410194
• 22 RussiaRussia 59715971
• 33 ChinaChina 19781978
• 44 United Kingdom 1200United Kingdom 1200
• The units are expressed in millions of U.S. dollars at 1990sThe units are expressed in millions of U.S. dollars at 1990s
prices.prices.
• RankRank CountryCountry Spending ($ Bn.)Spending ($ Bn.)
• 11 United States 597.5United States 597.5
• 22 ChinaChina 145.8145.8
• 33 Saudi Arabia 81.9Saudi Arabia 81.9
• 44 RussiaRussia 65.665.6
• 55 United KingdomUnited Kingdom 56.256.2
• 66 IndiaIndia 48.048.0
• 77 FranceFrance 46.846.8
• 88 JapanJapan 41.041.0
• 99 GermanyGermany 36.736.7
• 1010 South KoreaSouth Korea 33.533.5
• 1111 BrazilBrazil 24.324.3
• 1212 AustraliaAustralia 22.822.8
• 1313 ItalyItaly 21.621.6
• 1414 IraqIraq 21.121.1
• 1515 IsraelIsrael 18.618.6
• List by the International Institute for Strategic StudiesList by the International Institute for Strategic Studies
• Top 15 Defence Budgets 2015Top 15 Defence Budgets 2015

The World's Largest Arms ExportersThe World's Largest Arms Exporters
Permanent 5 Members of the UN Security CouncilPermanent 5 Members of the UN Security Council

The War Industry vs Peace Industry:The War Industry vs Peace Industry: Military-Military-
Industrial Complex 1.0 vs Military-Industrial Complex 2.0Industrial Complex 1.0 vs Military-Industrial Complex 2.0
• The War Industry, simulated asThe War Industry, simulated as the arms industry, defense industry or the arms tradethe arms industry, defense industry or the arms trade, is a global industry, is a global industry
responsible for the manufacturing and sales of weapons and military technology.responsible for the manufacturing and sales of weapons and military technology.
• It consists of a commercial industry involved in the research and development, engineering, production, and servicingIt consists of a commercial industry involved in the research and development, engineering, production, and servicing
of military material, equipment, and facilities.of military material, equipment, and facilities.
• Arms-producing companies, also referred to as arms dealers, defense contractors, or as the military industry, produceArms-producing companies, also referred to as arms dealers, defense contractors, or as the military industry, produce
arms mainly for the armed forces of states.arms mainly for the armed forces of states.
• Departments of government also operate in the arms industry, buying and selling weapons, munitions and otherDepartments of government also operate in the arms industry, buying and selling weapons, munitions and other
military items.military items.
• Products include guns, artillery, ammunition, missiles, military aircraft, military vehicles, ships, electronic systems,Products include guns, artillery, ammunition, missiles, military aircraft, military vehicles, ships, electronic systems,
night vision devices, holographic weapon sights, laser rangefinders, laser sights, hand grenades, landmines and more.night vision devices, holographic weapon sights, laser rangefinders, laser sights, hand grenades, landmines and more.
The arms industry also provides other logistical and operational support.The arms industry also provides other logistical and operational support.
• The peace–industrial complexThe peace–industrial complex defines the industry and economy derived from development, peacemaking,defines the industry and economy derived from development, peacemaking,
peacebuilding, and conflict resolution at both the domestic and foreign levels.peacebuilding, and conflict resolution at both the domestic and foreign levels.
• It is turning military research and development into civilian technology as systematically as possibleIt is turning military research and development into civilian technology as systematically as possible
• This is the military-industrial complex 2.0, which is interested in weapons of mass construction rather than weaponsThis is the military-industrial complex 2.0, which is interested in weapons of mass construction rather than weapons
of mass destruction because these weapons are the future in terms of power.of mass destruction because these weapons are the future in terms of power.
• In political philosophy and international relations, especially in peace and conflict studies, the concept of aIn political philosophy and international relations, especially in peace and conflict studies, the concept of a
war against war also known as war on warwar against war also known as war on war refers to the reification of armed conflicts.refers to the reification of armed conflicts.

Military IntelligenceMilitary Intelligence
• Strategic Intelligence of foreign power, armed force, target, physical environmentStrategic Intelligence of foreign power, armed force, target, physical environment
• Tactical IntelligenceTactical Intelligence
• Sources of IntelligenceSources of Intelligence
• Acoustics, sensors, nuclear submarinesAcoustics, sensors, nuclear submarines
• Imagery of objects, activities, terrain, optical, infrared, ultravioletImagery of objects, activities, terrain, optical, infrared, ultraviolet
• Signals, communications, electronics, telemetrySignals, communications, electronics, telemetry
• Radiation, electromagneticRadiation, electromagnetic
• Foreign materialForeign material
• Human agentsHuman agents
• Types of IntelligenceTypes of Intelligence
• Armed forces, enemies strengths and weaknessesArmed forces, enemies strengths and weaknesses
• Biographical intelligenceBiographical intelligence
• Cartographic and Geographic intelligenceCartographic and Geographic intelligence
• Economic intelligenceEconomic intelligence
• Energy intelligence, policies, plans, programsEnergy intelligence, policies, plans, programs
• CounterintelligenceCounterintelligence
• Sociological intelligenceSociological intelligence
• Transportation, computing and telecommunicationTransportation, computing and telecommunication
• The USA expenses on military intelligence exceed $80bn, what is over the Russian military budgetThe USA expenses on military intelligence exceed $80bn, what is over the Russian military budget

Strategy in the Nuclear Age: MAD PhilosophyStrategy in the Nuclear Age: MAD Philosophy
• Philosophy of MAD, Mutual Assured DestructionPhilosophy of MAD, Mutual Assured Destruction
• Nuclear doctrineNuclear doctrine
• Nuclear weapons as the ultimate catastropheNuclear weapons as the ultimate catastrophe
• Atomic bombs & Thermonuclear bombsAtomic bombs & Thermonuclear bombs
• Nuclear wars, local or globalNuclear wars, local or global
• First and second strikeFirst and second strike
• Antinuclear defense, START, INF treaty, SDF, Star WarsAntinuclear defense, START, INF treaty, SDF, Star Wars
• ICBM, intercontinental ballistic missileICBM, intercontinental ballistic missile
• MIRVed ICBMsMIRVed ICBMs
• Strategic Nuclear Forces, Cosmic ForcesStrategic Nuclear Forces, Cosmic Forces
• USA & NATOUSA & NATO
• CHINA & RUSSIACHINA & RUSSIA
• Global Nuclear deterrence, SKYNET, Encyclopedic Intelligence Global PlatformGlobal Nuclear deterrence, SKYNET, Encyclopedic Intelligence Global Platform

Locally Global Proxy Wars:Locally Global Proxy Wars: the Arab Spring and thethe Arab Spring and the
Syrian Civil WarSyrian Civil War
• The war caused by the unrest of the 2011 Arab Spring, a revolutionary wave of both violent andThe war caused by the unrest of the 2011 Arab Spring, a revolutionary wave of both violent and
non-violent demonstrations, protests, riots, coups and civil wars in the Arab world (since 17non-violent demonstrations, protests, riots, coups and civil wars in the Arab world (since 17
December 2010 in Tunisia) and spread throughout the countries of the Arab League and itsDecember 2010 in Tunisia) and spread throughout the countries of the Arab League and its
surroundings.surroundings.
• Major insurgencies and civil wars in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Yemen resulted along with civilMajor insurgencies and civil wars in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Yemen resulted along with civil
uprisings in Bahrain and Egypt, large street demonstrations in Algeria, Iran, Lebanon, Jordan,uprisings in Bahrain and Egypt, large street demonstrations in Algeria, Iran, Lebanon, Jordan,
Kuwait, Morocco, Oman and Sudan and minor protests in Djibouti, Mauritania, the PalestinianKuwait, Morocco, Oman and Sudan and minor protests in Djibouti, Mauritania, the Palestinian
territories, Saudi Arabia, Somalia and the Western Sahara.territories, Saudi Arabia, Somalia and the Western Sahara.
• Large-scale conflicts resulted -- the Syrian Civil War, Iraqi insurgency and the following civil war,Large-scale conflicts resulted -- the Syrian Civil War, Iraqi insurgency and the following civil war,
the Egyptian Crisis and coup, the Libyan Crisis, and the Crisis in Yemen.the Egyptian Crisis and coup, the Libyan Crisis, and the Crisis in Yemen.
• The war is now being fought among several factions: the Syrian Government and its variousThe war is now being fought among several factions: the Syrian Government and its various
supporters, a loose alliance of Syrian Arab rebel groups, the Syrian Democratic Forces, Salafisupporters, a loose alliance of Syrian Arab rebel groups, the Syrian Democratic Forces, Salafi
jihadist groups (including al-Nusra Front) who often co-operate with the rebels, and the Islamicjihadist groups (including al-Nusra Front) who often co-operate with the rebels, and the Islamic
State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
• The violence in Syria has caused millions to flee their homes. As of March 2015, Al-JazeeraThe violence in Syria has caused millions to flee their homes. As of March 2015, Al-Jazeera
estimates 10.9 million Syrians, or almost half the population, have been displaced. 3.8 million haveestimates 10.9 million Syrians, or almost half the population, have been displaced. 3.8 million have
been made refugees.been made refugees.
• The factions receive substantial support from foreign actors, leading many to label the conflict aThe factions receive substantial support from foreign actors, leading many to label the conflict a
proxy war waged by both regional and global powers.proxy war waged by both regional and global powers.
• See the Arab Spring and The Syrian Civil War Wiki ArticlesSee the Arab Spring and The Syrian Civil War Wiki Articles

A New Type of War:A New Type of War: hybrid war, hybrid warfare,hybrid war, hybrid warfare,
hybrid threat, or hybrid adversaryhybrid threat, or hybrid adversary
• ““diverse and dynamic combinations of conventional, irregular, terrorist and criminal capabilities.”diverse and dynamic combinations of conventional, irregular, terrorist and criminal capabilities.”
• ““any adversary that simultaneously and adaptively employs a tailored mix of conventional, irregular, terrorismany adversary that simultaneously and adaptively employs a tailored mix of conventional, irregular, terrorism
and criminal means or activities in the operational battle space. Rather than a single entity, a hybrid threat orand criminal means or activities in the operational battle space. Rather than a single entity, a hybrid threat or
challenger may be a combination of state and nonstate actors.”challenger may be a combination of state and nonstate actors.”
• ““the diverse and dynamic combination of regular forces, irregular forces, criminal elements, or a combinationthe diverse and dynamic combination of regular forces, irregular forces, criminal elements, or a combination
of these forces and elements all unified to achieve mutually benefiting effects.”of these forces and elements all unified to achieve mutually benefiting effects.”
• ““adversaries with the ability to simultaneously employ conventional and non-conventional means adaptively inadversaries with the ability to simultaneously employ conventional and non-conventional means adaptively in
pursuit of their objectives.”pursuit of their objectives.”
• ““A hybrid of irregular warfare and conventional warfare.”A hybrid of irregular warfare and conventional warfare.”
• A hybrid war takes place on three distinct battlefields: the conventional battlefield, the indigenous populationA hybrid war takes place on three distinct battlefields: the conventional battlefield, the indigenous population
of the conflict zone, and the international community where directed an influx of refugees to destabilize theof the conflict zone, and the international community where directed an influx of refugees to destabilize the
areas and regions in terms of economy and to create social unrest.areas and regions in terms of economy and to create social unrest.
• «гибридная война» используется для осуществления единства действий с применением ядерного,«гибридная война» используется для осуществления единства действий с применением ядерного,
биологического и химического оружия, самодельных взрывных устройств и средств информационнойбиологического и химического оружия, самодельных взрывных устройств и средств информационной
войны.войны. Сюда включаются "неявные военные действия", "нелинейные", "асимметричные",Сюда включаются "неявные военные действия", "нелинейные", "асимметричные",
"нетрадиционные" и "гибридные" операции."нетрадиционные" и "гибридные" операции.
• В современных условиях этот исторически новый подход к разрешению конфликтов является ведущимВ современных условиях этот исторически новый подход к разрешению конфликтов является ведущим
видом войны.видом войны.
• See Hybrid warfare Wiki ArticleSee Hybrid warfare Wiki Article
• "HYBRID WAR: A NEW PARADIGM FOR STABILITY OPERATIONS IN FAILING STATES""HYBRID WAR: A NEW PARADIGM FOR STABILITY OPERATIONS IN FAILING STATES"

Hybrid WarfareHybrid Warfare:: the case of Russiathe case of Russia
• Россия втягивается в новый тип войн ближайшего
будущего, гибридные войны, отмеченные
следующими признаками:
• Новаторская стратегия и мобильная тактика и
нетрадиционные конфликты с участием
наемников, повстанцев, советников и/или
добровольцев, негосударственных структур,
партизанов, интервентов и частных армий
• «Цветные революции» и капитализация внешних
(территориальных конфликтов) и внутренних
противоречий (этнических, социальных,
экономических, политических и т.д.)
• Стимулируемая коррупция (почти каждый
чиновник коррупционер имеет зарубежную
собственность), терроризм, криминальная
экономика и внутренняя диверсия, торговля
людьми и триллионный мировой наркотрафик
(каждая третья жертва из России)
• Трудовая миграция бедности и массовое
вынужденное переселение
• Информационные войны и коммерческая
пропаганда СМИ импортных товаров
• Кибер-войны, новейшие технологии и финансово-
экономические операции
• Экономические санкции и политическая изоляция
• Постоянная угроза глобального конфликта и
необходимость увеличения военных расходов.
•
• РОССИЯ – ЕВРОПЕЙСКИЙ СОЮЗРОССИЯ – ЕВРОПЕЙСКИЙ СОЮЗ
• РОССИЯ – СШАРОССИЯ – США
• РОССИЯ - НАТОРОССИЯ - НАТО
• РОССИЯ & СИРИЯ & ИРАН & ИРАК – ИГИЛ &РОССИЯ & СИРИЯ & ИРАН & ИРАК – ИГИЛ &
ТУРЦИЯ & КАТАР & САУДАВСКАЯ АРАВИЯТУРЦИЯ & КАТАР & САУДАВСКАЯ АРАВИЯ
• РОССИЯ – УКРАИНАРОССИЯ – УКРАИНА && НАТОНАТО
• РОССИЯ – ТУРЦИЯРОССИЯ – ТУРЦИЯ && НАТОНАТО
• ИГИЛ – КОАЛИЦИЯ СШАИГИЛ – КОАЛИЦИЯ США
• ИГИЛ – ЕВРОПА & ФРАНЦИЯ & ГЕРМАНИЯИГИЛ – ЕВРОПА & ФРАНЦИЯ & ГЕРМАНИЯ
& ВЕЛИКОБРИТАНИЯ& ВЕЛИКОБРИТАНИЯ
• ТУРЦИЯ - ЕВРОПАТУРЦИЯ - ЕВРОПА
• Ведение санкционной войныВедение санкционной войны
• Ведение информационной войныВедение информационной войны
• Расширение НАТОРасширение НАТО
• Продвижение военной инфраструктуры НАТО и т.д.Продвижение военной инфраструктуры НАТО и т.д.
•

FUTURE WEAPONSFUTURE WEAPONS
• Airborne laser (Advanced Tactical Laser, High Energy Liquid Laser Area Defense System
)
• Antimatter weapon
• Caseless ammunition
• Directed energy weapon
• Electrolaser
• Electromagnetic weapons
• Electrothermal-chemical technology
• Particle beam weapon
• Plasma weapon
• Pure fusion weapon
• Sonic weapon
• Stealth technology, Plasma stealth, Stealth aircraft, Radar-absorbent material
• Vortex ring gun
• Information, or Cyber Warfare Weapons (Smart Cyber Security Systems and Tools)
• SMART WEAPONRY, CYBER WARFARE AND INTELLIGENT DEFENCE
SYSTEMS

FUTURE WAR:FUTURE WAR:
World War 3, or Cyber WarfareWorld War 3, or Cyber Warfare
• World War 3: With Advancement inWorld War 3: With Advancement in
Technology, Information Warfare to be theTechnology, Information Warfare to be the
Next Domain of ConflictNext Domain of Conflict
• War should now be seen as being conducted in fiveWar should now be seen as being conducted in five
domains: in the air and in space, on sea and on land, anddomains: in the air and in space, on sea and on land, and
also in the information environment.also in the information environment.
• Cyber warfare is becoming more and more powerful inCyber warfare is becoming more and more powerful in
today's battlefield. Effective use of cyber technologies cantoday's battlefield. Effective use of cyber technologies can
gain dominance on the battlefield or force the enemy togain dominance on the battlefield or force the enemy to
retreat by shutting down its command infrastructure orretreat by shutting down its command infrastructure or
communication network. The role of Cyber Warfare is seencommunication network. The role of Cyber Warfare is seen
to be growing due to the digitization of conventionalto be growing due to the digitization of conventional
warfare technologies as well as using more complexwarfare technologies as well as using more complex
devices to do more damage than they could in past.devices to do more damage than they could in past.
• Whilst discussing about nations, Cyber Warfare is not justWhilst discussing about nations, Cyber Warfare is not just
limited to governments attacking governments. Any part oflimited to governments attacking governments. Any part of
the critical infrastructure may be subject to attack, fromthe critical infrastructure may be subject to attack, from
banking and utilities to transport or the supply of essentialbanking and utilities to transport or the supply of essential
goods and commodities. "Cyber Threats" include everygoods and commodities. "Cyber Threats" include every
threat that can be carried out over the internet. Cyberthreat that can be carried out over the internet. Cyber
crimes cost countries billions of dollars every year.crimes cost countries billions of dollars every year.
• By 2020, there will be approximately 927 SatellitesBy 2020, there will be approximately 927 Satellites
(Communication – 405; Earth Observation – 151; Navigation(Communication – 405; Earth Observation – 151; Navigation ––
85; Reconnaissance – 212 and R&D85; Reconnaissance – 212 and R&D – 75)– 75)
• Top 20 Global Mega Trends and their Impact ofTop 20 Global Mega Trends and their Impact of
Business, Cultures and Society. Frost & SullivanBusiness, Cultures and Society. Frost & Sullivan

A QUANTUM LEAP TO THE POST-WORLD 3.0A QUANTUM LEAP TO THE POST-WORLD 3.0
• The process of rise-and-collapse of advanced civilizations at industrial stage World 1.0 andThe process of rise-and-collapse of advanced civilizations at industrial stage World 1.0 and
information stage World 2.0 is a recurrent cycle, as it’s found throughout history.information stage World 2.0 is a recurrent cycle, as it’s found throughout history.
• There are two key social features that contributed to the collapse of every single advanced civilizationThere are two key social features that contributed to the collapse of every single advanced civilization
from the past:from the past:
• ““the stretching of resources due to the strain placed on the ecological carrying capacity”;the stretching of resources due to the strain placed on the ecological carrying capacity”;
• ““the economic stratification of society into Elites [rich] and Masses (or “Commoners”) [poor]”the economic stratification of society into Elites [rich] and Masses (or “Commoners”) [poor]”
• These social phenomena have played “a central role in the character or in the process of the collapse”These social phenomena have played “a central role in the character or in the process of the collapse”
over “the last five thousand years.”over “the last five thousand years.”
• Even though the civilization is at a very advanced technological stage, this does not necessarily meanEven though the civilization is at a very advanced technological stage, this does not necessarily mean
that it is saved from imminent chaos.that it is saved from imminent chaos.
• ““Technological change can raise the efficiency of resource use, but it also tends to raise both perTechnological change can raise the efficiency of resource use, but it also tends to raise both per
capita resource consumption and the scale of resource extraction, so that, absent policy effects, thecapita resource consumption and the scale of resource extraction, so that, absent policy effects, the
increases in consumption often compensate for the increased efficiency of resource use.”increases in consumption often compensate for the increased efficiency of resource use.”
• The civilization “…. appears to be on a sustainable path for quite a long time, but even using anThe civilization “…. appears to be on a sustainable path for quite a long time, but even using an
optimal depletion rate and starting with a very small number of Elites, the Elites eventually consumeoptimal depletion rate and starting with a very small number of Elites, the Elites eventually consume
too much, resulting in a famine among Commoners that eventually causes the collapse of society. ”too much, resulting in a famine among Commoners that eventually causes the collapse of society. ”
• The instability of human-nature system, natural disasters, the depletion of natural resources,The instability of human-nature system, natural disasters, the depletion of natural resources,
invasions, or government mismanagement are the causes of the collapse of ancient empires and asinvasions, or government mismanagement are the causes of the collapse of ancient empires and as
well as complex industrial and information civilizationswell as complex industrial and information civilizations..
• Human and Nature Dynamics (HANDY): Modeling Inequality and SustainabilityHuman and Nature Dynamics (HANDY): Modeling Inequality and Sustainability, NASA-funded study, 2016, NASA-funded study, 2016
• Climate Engineering, Weather Warfare, and the Collapse of CivilizationClimate Engineering, Weather Warfare, and the Collapse of Civilization ;; The Collapse of Complex SocietiesThe Collapse of Complex Societies
• NB. The geopolitical risks of the total or partial Civilization Collapse (of human communities, entireNB. The geopolitical risks of the total or partial Civilization Collapse (of human communities, entire
ways of life, systems of thought, cultural values and worldviews) disappear only with the World 3.0,ways of life, systems of thought, cultural values and worldviews) disappear only with the World 3.0,
POST-WORLD.POST-WORLD.
CREATING THE FUTURE All Rights Reserved Azamat Abdoullaev 2013-2017

Building the WORLD of TomorrowBuilding the WORLD of Tomorrow
• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/creating-the-future-tomorrows-world
• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/smartworl-dabr
• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/shaping-the-future-world
• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/innovation-platform
• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/eco-world-commandments
• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/smart-world
• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/future-world-27173937
• http://eu-smartcities.eu/blog/smart-superpowers-projects-states-powers-great-powers-and-hyperpowers
• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/superpowers-smart-states-global-initiative
• http://eu-smartcities.eu/content/become-smart-nation-build-your-brand-name
• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/future-world-branding
• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/smart-revolution
• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/i-world-state
• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/intelligent-global-government
• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/world-tomorrow
• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/intelligent-world
• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/eis-global-innovation-platform

THE FUTURE WORLD INITIATIVES:THE FUTURE WORLD INITIATIVES:
The World Federation of Smart NationsThe World Federation of Smart Nations
• For more on the Future World visions, strategies, challenges and projects, visit the links as below:
• BUILDING INTELLIGENT WORLD
• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/smartworl-dabr
• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/future-world-27173937
• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/iworld-25498222
• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/smart-revolution
• THE FUTURE WORLD ACTIONS
• Smart Sustainable Cities Global Initiative
• Smart Sustainable Nations Global Initiative
• Smart Sustainable Superpower Global Initiative
• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/eco-world-commandments
• CHINA-RUSSIA-EUROPE SMART SILK ROAD
• THE FUTURE EUROPE ACTIONS
• European Innovation Partnership on Smart Cities and Communities
• Smart Urban Europe Agenda
• Smart Green Europe Development Projects (to be submitted under Juncker’s Investment in Europe Fund)
• THE FUTURE RUSSIA ACTIONS
• Smart Green Russia (to be submitted under the National Well-Being Fund and Pension Fund)
• http://www.iiisyla.livejournal.com
• THE FUTURE WORLD ECONOMY
• https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/replacing-capitalist-world-economy-smart-world-azamat-abdoullaev
• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/demise-of-capitalism
• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/replacing-world-capitalism
•
•

WORLD X.0 DIGITAL PLATFORM
• EIS ENCYCLOPEDIC INTELLIGENCE DIGITAL PLATFORM: GLOBAL INNOVATION AND
DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY PLATFORM
ENCYCLOPEDIC INTELLIGENCE I:
http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/encyclopedic-intelligence
ENCYCLOPEDIC INTELLIGENCE II:
http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/encyclopedic-intelligence-24260973
ENCYCLOPEDIC INTELLIGENCE III:
http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/encyclopedic-intelligence-global-marketing
ENCYCLOPEDIC INTELLIGENCE IV:
http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/encyclopedic-intelligence-big-science-and-technology
ENCYCLOPEDIC INTELLIGENCE V:
http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/global-intelligence-26413485
• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/eis-global-innovation-platformhttp://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/eis-global-innovation-platform
• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/eis-ltd ; http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/eis-limited-28850348
• http://eu-smartcities.eu/blog/smart-superpowers-projects-states-powers-great-powers-and-hyperpowers; http://www.
slideshare.net/ashabook/superpowers-smart-states-global-initiative
• http://eu-smartcities.eu/blog/smart-superpowers-projects-states-powers-great-powers-and-hyperpowers; http://www.
slideshare.net/ashabook/superpowers-smart-states-global-initiative
• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/innovation-platform
• http://eu-smartcities.eu/users/azamat-abdoullaev-asha
• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/presentations
• EIS Encyclopedic Intelligent Systems Ltd (EU)
•

The FUTURE WORLD FEDERATION:The FUTURE WORLD FEDERATION:
Strategic Counselling TopicsStrategic Counselling Topics
• SMART WORLD Policy, Plan, Program, Projects, Products, PeoplesSMART WORLD Policy, Plan, Program, Projects, Products, Peoples
• FUTURE COUNTRY ConstructionFUTURE COUNTRY Construction
• SUSTAINABLE CITY, AND FUTURE COMMUNITYSUSTAINABLE CITY, AND FUTURE COMMUNITY
• BIG SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGYBIG SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
• SMART INNOVATIONSMART INNOVATION
• INTELLIGENT INFRASTRUCTURE AND IINNOVATIVE NDUSTRYINTELLIGENT INFRASTRUCTURE AND IINNOVATIVE NDUSTRY
• SMART POWERS AND INTELLIGENT NATIONS DEVELOPMENTSMART POWERS AND INTELLIGENT NATIONS DEVELOPMENT
STRATEGIES (to be licensed to interested government bodies):STRATEGIES (to be licensed to interested government bodies):
• i-USA,i-USA,
• i-EU,i-EU,
• i-CHINA,i-CHINA,
• i-JAPAN,i-JAPAN,
• i-RUSSIA,i-RUSSIA,
• i-GERMANY,i-GERMANY,
• i-GREAT BRITAIN, etc.i-GREAT BRITAIN, etc.

Disrupting the Old World W1.0 and CreatingDisrupting the Old World W1.0 and Creating
the New World X.0the New World X.0
• The first 2015 Smart World Congress in China is
following the Smart World™ Concept,
http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/smartworl-dabr
, as unifying Physical, Social, Cyber, and Mental
Worlds (see the picture): http://www.cybermatics.org
/
• The India’s government initiative is to create 100
Smart Cities across the country “to drive economic
growth and improve the quality of life of people by
enabling local area development and harnessing smart
solutions”.
• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/sustainable-city
• The future-wise governments and smart businesses
are to rely on the Smart World Intelligence and
Services while planning and implementing sustainable
national developments or large-scale innovative
strategies and projects.
• The World X.0 concept is to guide the future
development policy, strategy, innovations, and
community planning, as India’s Smart Cities Mission
estimated as US$ 1.2 trillion over the next 20 years or
Chinese smart and green cities developments
projected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2025.
• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/china-smart-eco-power
•

Shaping the Peaceful WorldShaping the Peaceful World
• VISION AND MISSION
to reverse the total destruction of the world and humanity
to reverse climate change through sustainable smart communities
to establish total peace and wise world government
• Vision, Innovation and Technology shape the New World of Perpetual
Peace
http://www.lulu.com/spotlight/shamash http://iworldx.wix.com/smart-wo
http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/presentations
SMART WORLD: http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/smartworl-dabr

SHAPING A PEACEFUL WORLDSHAPING A PEACEFUL WORLD
• The worldwide crisis might continue concurrently with the regional wars and sweeping
social unrest, ultimately ending up with any of 3 future scenarios:
• the Intelligent World Order, a Smart World of Intelligence, Innovation, Integration and
Prosperity, as the World Federation ruled by the Wise World Government
• the Ubiquitous Global Chaos (of a “multipolar world” style)
• the Military World State (of an IGIL style)
• To show a possibility of the World Peace World, the Smart Superpower Global Initiative
has been launched considering as the potential superpowers of the 21st century:
• Europe (intellectual and socio-political capital),
• China (human and economic capital),
• Russia (ecological capital),
• America (technological and military capital),
• India (human resources and cultural capital).
• Smart Sustainable Cities Global Initiative
• Smart Sustainable Nations Global Initiative
• Smart Sustainable Superpower Global Initiative
• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/world-tomorrow ;
http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/intelligent-world
• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/shaping-the-future-world

Global Community 2.0:Global Community 2.0: Towards World Polity and GlobalTowards World Polity and Global
GovernanceGovernance
• The idea of Global Human Community and World Governance is inherent in the human nature from the very ancient time,The idea of Global Human Community and World Governance is inherent in the human nature from the very ancient time,
known as the trade routes of the Silk Way and great empires aimed to rule “All That the Sun Encircles”, “All from the Sunriseknown as the trade routes of the Silk Way and great empires aimed to rule “All That the Sun Encircles”, “All from the Sunrise
to the Sunset”, “All under Heaven”, “All under Moon”, etc., all striving for "World empire" or "World state“ and the Newto the Sunset”, “All under Heaven”, “All under Moon”, etc., all striving for "World empire" or "World state“ and the New
World Peace Order.World Peace Order.
• The 20The 20thth
century and the start of the 21century and the start of the 21stst
age have seen big but futile attempts in organizing the world as one peaceful system:age have seen big but futile attempts in organizing the world as one peaceful system:
1)1) The League of Nations, an inter-governmental organization as a result of the Treaty of Versailles in 1919–1920The League of Nations, an inter-governmental organization as a result of the Treaty of Versailles in 1919–1920
2)2) The United Nations (UN), an inter-governmental organization coordinating activities between states on a global scale,The United Nations (UN), an inter-governmental organization coordinating activities between states on a global scale,
with a universal membership (193 governments)with a universal membership (193 governments)
3)3) The UN's Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC), such as the World Health Organization, the International LaborThe UN's Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC), such as the World Health Organization, the International Labor
Organization, International Telecommunications Union; the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the WorldOrganization, International Telecommunications Union; the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the World
Trade OrganizationTrade Organization
4)4) Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 30 membersOrganization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 30 members
5)5) G7, a group consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States toG7, a group consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States to
coordinate the policies in poverty, terrorism, infectious diseases, and climate changecoordinate the policies in poverty, terrorism, infectious diseases, and climate change
6)6) G20, an association of twenty developing and established nations and entities, including the European UnionG20, an association of twenty developing and established nations and entities, including the European Union
7)7) The global market, trans-national (or multi-national) corporations, trans-continental digital communications and globalThe global market, trans-national (or multi-national) corporations, trans-continental digital communications and global
mass-media, the Internet, satellite and mobile networks, the internet of everything, etc.mass-media, the Internet, satellite and mobile networks, the internet of everything, etc.
8)8) Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road, as reviving the Ancient Silk RoadSilk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road, as reviving the Ancient Silk Road
9)9) Trans-Pacific Partnership to create the largest trading bloc on the planet (The United States, Canada, Japan, Mexico,Trans-Pacific Partnership to create the largest trading bloc on the planet (The United States, Canada, Japan, Mexico,
Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam, with a total population of about 800Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam, with a total population of about 800
million people and a combined GDP of 28 trillion dollars)million people and a combined GDP of 28 trillion dollars)
10)10) Transnational Unions, the European Union, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Commonwealth of IndependentTransnational Unions, the European Union, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Commonwealth of Independent
StatesStates
11)11) Regional unions of nations >>>Regional unions of nations >>>

Regional Unions of NationsRegional Unions of Nations
•• African Union (AU)African Union (AU)
•• Arab LeagueArab League
•• Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
•• Caribbean Community (CARICOM)Caribbean Community (CARICOM)
•• Central American Integration System (SICA)Central American Integration System (SICA)
•• Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)
•• Commonwealth of NationsCommonwealth of Nations
•• Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (CCASG)Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (CCASG)
•• East African Community (EAC)East African Community (EAC)
•• Eurasian Economic Union (EEU)Eurasian Economic Union (EEU)
•• North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
•• Organization of American States (OAS)Organization of American States (OAS)
•• South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)
•• Turkic Council (TurkKon)Turkic Council (TurkKon)
•• Union of South American Nations (UNASUR)Union of South American Nations (UNASUR)
•• Union StateUnion State
•• Arab League or an "Arab Union"Arab League or an "Arab Union"
•• Caribbean Community (CARICOM) or a "Caribbean Federation"Caribbean Community (CARICOM) or a "Caribbean Federation"
•• North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) into a "North American Union"North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) into a "North American Union"
•• Pacific Islands Forum into a "Pacific Union“, etc.Pacific Islands Forum into a "Pacific Union“, etc.

World X.0: New Universal Agenda & WorldWorld X.0: New Universal Agenda & World
GovernmentGovernment
• New globally inegrating technology and sustainable world development strategy, as Agenda 21 and
the 2030 Agenda, show the human-wise way to the New United Nations, the World Federation of
Nations, the global unity of world community, commonwealth, polity, executive, legislature, and
judiciary, all voted by direct democracy.
• The World Federation of Nations means
• One Global Governance System,
• One World Economic System,
• One World Social System,
• One World Religion,
• Perpetual Peace and end of Wars, local and global,
• The Smart Connected World of global market, trans-national (or multi-national) corporations, trans-
continental digital communications and global mass-media, the Internet, satellite and mobile
networks, the internet of everything, etc.
• World government is to emerge as a common socio-technological political authority for all of
humanity, yielding a global governance and a single world state that has authority over the entire
Earth.
• Such a government could come into existence through peaceful and voluntary supranational union.
• World Government is a worldwide executive, legislature, judiciary, military, and constitution with
global jurisdiction.
• “The World is but one country and mankind its citizens”.

UN Agenda 2030:UN Agenda 2030: Post-2015 Sustainable Development GoalsPost-2015 Sustainable Development Goals
• Beyond GDPBeyond GDP
• TourismTourism
• Community culture and spiritualityCommunity culture and spirituality
• Corporate social responsibilityCorporate social responsibility
• Information and communications technologyInformation and communications technology
• ForestsForests
• Land managementLand management
• Good governanceGood governance
• Green economyGreen economy
• Peace and securityPeace and security
• Transport and infrastructureTransport and infrastructure
• Waste managementWaste management
• DesertificationDesertification
• EquityEquity
• BiodiversityBiodiversity
• Disaster risk reductionDisaster risk reduction
• Oceans and seasOceans and seas
• Economy and macroeconomic stabilityEconomy and macroeconomic stability
• Cities and housingCities and housing
• Sustainable consumption and productionSustainable consumption and production
• GenderGender
• EmploymentEmployment
• Environment/management of natural resourcesEnvironment/management of natural resources
• Climate changeClimate change
• Means of implementationMeans of implementation
• HealthHealth
• Poverty eradicationPoverty eradication
• EducationEducation
• EnergyEnergy
• Water and sanitationWater and sanitation
•

SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY XXI:SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY XXI: Shaping theShaping the
World and Humanity of TomorrowWorld and Humanity of Tomorrow
• Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Physics and Technology of the 21st Century, New Physica; EIS; EU, Russia,Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Physics and Technology of the 21st Century, New Physica; EIS; EU, Russia,
2016; ISBN set 978-9963-2202-1-2; ISBN 978-9963-2202-2-92016; ISBN set 978-9963-2202-1-2; ISBN 978-9963-2202-2-9
• Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Disrupting Modern Science, Technology and Engineering with WisdomAzamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Disrupting Modern Science, Technology and Engineering with Wisdom
Science; EIS; EU, Russia, 2016; ISBN set 978-9963-2202-1-2; ISBN 978-9963-2202-7-4Science; EIS; EU, Russia, 2016; ISBN set 978-9963-2202-1-2; ISBN 978-9963-2202-7-4
• Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Wise World Wide Web and Technological Singularity; EIS ; EU, Russia, 2016;Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Wise World Wide Web and Technological Singularity; EIS ; EU, Russia, 2016;
ISBN set 978-9963-2202-1-2; ISBN 978-9963-2202-4-3ISBN set 978-9963-2202-1-2; ISBN 978-9963-2202-4-3
• Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Wise Encyclopedia for Minds and Machines; EIS; EU, Russia, 2016; ISBNAzamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Wise Encyclopedia for Minds and Machines; EIS; EU, Russia, 2016; ISBN
set 978-9963-2202-1-2; ISBN 978-9963-2202-5-0set 978-9963-2202-1-2; ISBN 978-9963-2202-5-0
• Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, NEW WISDOM BOOK, Universal Standard Entity Classification System,Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, NEW WISDOM BOOK, Universal Standard Entity Classification System,
USECS; EIS; EU, Russia, 2015; ISBN 978-9963-8421-8-6USECS; EIS; EU, Russia, 2015; ISBN 978-9963-8421-8-6
• Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Neapolis Smart Eco City: A Development Framework for Sustainable Cities;Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Neapolis Smart Eco City: A Development Framework for Sustainable Cities;
EIS; EU, Russia, 2010; ISBN 978-9963-9958-0-6EIS; EU, Russia, 2010; ISBN 978-9963-9958-0-6
• Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Future Communities Guide: Smart Cities and New Urban Revolution; EIS;Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Future Communities Guide: Smart Cities and New Urban Revolution; EIS;
EU, Russia, 2016; ISBN set 978-9963-2202-1-2; ISBN 978-9963-2202-6-7EU, Russia, 2016; ISBN set 978-9963-2202-1-2; ISBN 978-9963-2202-6-7
• Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Project Russia 21_Wise Intelligent Superpower Power; EIS; EU, Russia, 2016;Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Project Russia 21_Wise Intelligent Superpower Power; EIS; EU, Russia, 2016;
ISBN 978-5-600-01518-0 (in Russian)ISBN 978-5-600-01518-0 (in Russian)
• Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Wise Nations, Powers and Superpowers; EIS; EU, Russia, 2016; ISBN setAzamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Wise Nations, Powers and Superpowers; EIS; EU, Russia, 2016; ISBN set
978-9963-2202-1-2; ISBN 978-9963-2202-3-6978-9963-2202-1-2; ISBN 978-9963-2202-3-6
• Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, New World Revolution: Wise World vs. Ill World; EIS; EU, Russia, 2016Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, New World Revolution: Wise World vs. Ill World; EIS; EU, Russia, 2016
• http://www.lulu.com/spotlight/shamashhttp://www.lulu.com/spotlight/shamash

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