"Самочувствие потребителя" и "Потребительский индекс Иванова"

1March 2017 INVESTMENT RESEARCH
Russian Food Retail
Mikhail Krasnoperov
March 2017
INVESTMENT RESEARCH

Macro downturn depressed consumption…
The economy is weak, and the crisis has
mostly affected households (unlike in 2009,
which was an “industrial” crisis).
Households may tolerate 2% real incomes
decline, but 9% decline in 2015 and 6% in
2016 triggered changes.
Source: Cint, Sberbank CIB Investment Research
Ivanovs’ main concerns
‘* - for 2016 we provide real disposable income
Source: State Statistics Service, Sberbank CIB Investment Research
Real wage growth
Ivanov consumer confidence index
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Mar’13
May’13
Jul’13
Sep’13
Nov’13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
20%
37%
49%
51%
53%
59%
19%
18%
60%
52%
57%
57%
30%
17%
55%
56%
64%
54%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
USD/RUB rate
Economic growth
Povety
Unemployment
Inflation
Corruption
4Q15 3Q16 4Q16
In 4Q16 concernsabout
economicgrowth
sharplyincreased12%
8%
4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
2010 2012 2014 2016* 2018E 2020E
Real wages Critical threshold
Real wages declined 9% in 2015 and
then by 6% in 2016 i.e. dip well below
the critical threshold of 2%

…shrank middle class
Middle class shrank from 61% in 3Q14 to
51% now=> 14m migrated to low income
class
Salary threshold to be considered in the
middle class rose by 18% pa to R37k over
2015-2016 (vs. actual increase 10%)
Negative for discretionary spending
Migration is over
Average savings and savings ratio
per economic class
Ivanovs’ expenditures structure
Middle class evolution
60,732
94,8314.4%
9.3%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
Low class Middle class
Savings, RUB per family member Savings ratio
42.2%
35.4%
9.7%
10.7%
18.6%
14.1%
3.7%
6.6%
5.6%
6.6%
8.9%
7.6%
6%
7%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
Below middle class Middle class
Food Clothing Utilities
Vacations Household goods Interest payments
Healthcare

Consumers cutting back on discretionary spending..
Household spending outlook across certain
expenditures in the next 12m
Changes in the Ivanovs’ spending structure reflect falling real incomes and generally lower
consumption.
Ivanovs have increased spending on utilities to 15.9% of their incomes, a record high since the
beginning of our survey. Food expenses have diminished from 37.0% to 36.7%, while
spending on clothing and vacations have shrunk.
Outlook for discretionary spending is negative, but improving. On a net basis, now only 18% of
respondents plan to cut spending on clothing purchases, compared with 31% in 1Q16. With
respect to electronics, the percentage of those planning to cut spending fell from 48% in 1Q16
to 34% in 4Q16.
Ivanovs’ spending breakdown, share of income
37.0% 36.7%
9.8% 9.4%
15.7% 15.9%
5.2% 4.7%
5.9% 6.2%
6.6% 7.4%
6% 7%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
4Q15 4Q16
Food Clothing Utilities
Vacations Household goods Interest payments
Health care
60%
40%
20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Utilities
Food
Health
Interest
payments
Clothing
Vacation
Electronics
andhousehold
appliances
Eatingout
Actual spending in last 12m Spending outlook for next 12m
The Ivanovs plan to cut back on everything but utilities
this year. Food expenses should be mostly flat y o y.

Food was resilient in 2015, but declined in 2016
Nominal food was growing at 13% in 1Q15
(vs. 6% wage growth)
It saw savings depletion: share of
respondents with no savings increased from
40% in 2014 to 42% in 2016. Average saving
amount per capita declined from R50,300 to
R47,400
Now food retail lags behind wages (1% vs.
8% in nominal terms)
Nominal wage, food retail and LFL growth, y-o-y
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17E
2Q17E
3Q17E
4Q17E
Wage growth LFL sales growth Food retail growth
The biggest divergence between wage growth and food retail
growth came in 1Q15, but the situation turnedaround now.
Source: Sberbank CIB Investment Research
Percentage of Ivanovs with no savings
Average savings per family member
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
Low income Middle income High income
The Ivanovs' savings dropped
22.3 25.8%y o y in 1Q15.
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16

Spending adjustment is over..
Food expenditure were stable at 33% of wage over 2011-2013 food, increased to 33.9% in
2014 and then 34.6% in 2015 (peaking at 37%). It added 4.0 pp to retail turnover growth in last
two years.
It is now at historic average => future sector growth and LFLs to track wages, acceleration by 3
pp
Food expenditure as %% of wage
25%
30%
35%
40%
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sept
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sept
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sept
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sept
Nov
2013 2014 2015 2016
Historic seasonality (2010 2012) Actual
Consumerswere overspendingon food over 2014 2015...
...now are underspanding

…macro is stabilizing
The Ivanov Consumer Confidence Index bottomed
out at -24% in 4Q15, rose to -16% in 4Q16.
Public sector wages to grow 4.0%, while private
sector should climb 4.5%, for an average 4.3% in
2017.
Pensions: one-off payment in Jan 17 and
indexation in Feb 17.
Nominal food to grow by 3.9% vs. food inflation of
4.9%, real growth should be positive only in 4Q17.
Nominal wage growth in rubles
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E
Public Private Average
Wage growth has been driven by the public sector in
recent years, which turned around in 2015. We expect
public sector will be lagging going forward.
Food retail growth breakdown, y-o-y
Ivanov consumer confidence index
10%
5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2014
2015
2016
Jan’17
Feb’17
Mar’17
Apr’17
May’17
Jun’17
Jul’17
Aug’17
Sep’17
Oct’17
Nov’17
Dec’17
2018E
2019E
Real growth Inflation Nominal Food retail
Foodretail will grow 3.9% in nominal terms; 4.4% food
inflation underpins the 0.5% decline in real terms
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Mar’13
May’13
Jul’13
Sep’13
Nov’13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16

Trading down does not intensify
The share of Ivanovs that save on staples
climbed to 71%, while price sensitivity has
retreated to 75%.
There is still a wide gap between the price and
quality factors.
Switching to a cheaper store is the most
popular way to economize.
Have you been trying to buy cheaper staple
products in the past two to three months?
Factors behind store selection
How the Ivanovs try to save on food
55% 54% 54% 60% 66% 63% 69% 70% 70% 69% 68% 71%
42% 43% 43% 37% 32% 34% 29% 28% 28% 29% 30% 28%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
Yes No
59%
63%
28%
34%
60%
23%
57%
63%
26%
34%
55%
24%
55%
64%
27%
33%
56%
25%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Usepromo
offersmore
often
Buyfoodin
cheaperstores
withlowerprices
Buymore
privatelabel
products
Visitmore
storestofind
bargains
Buyless
expensivefood
anddelicacies
Buyless
foodin
general
4Q15 3Q16 4Q16
50%
60%
70%
80%
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
Product quality Prices
The share of price sensitive customers decrease slightly, while
importance of product quality rise.
Nevertheless indexes are still
far from 1H14 values.

Have you started to grow more vegetables in your
backyard because of the crisis?
Is it right that this year's harvest from the garden
was better than the previous year?
Source: Companies, State Statistics Service, Sberbank CIB
Investment Research
Dachas helped Ivanovs during crisis
Another one
Vendor selling fruit and vegetables in Krasnodar
51%
32%
11%
6%
We have no backyard
We have not changed the size of
our garden
We planted more vegetables in our
backyard last year
We planted more vegetables in our
backyard last year and plan to
plant even more this year
30%
14%
27%
24%
5%
The harvest was the same as in
preivous year.
The harvest was worse, so we will
consume more food from the store and
less from the garden.
The harvest was good, so we will
consume less food from the store and
more from the garden.
The harvest was good, but it will not
affect on our spendings at the stores.
The harvest was worse then in previous
year, but it will not affect on our
spendings at the stores.

Consumer is moving away from big boxes…
Do you visit hypermarkets less often or spend a
smaller share of your food budget there?
60% think shopping at hypermarkets is
expensive
55% of respondents reduce spending in
hypermarkets.
33% think prices and assortment of core
food items are similar at hypermarkets
and smaller stores, while the former
requires more shopping time.
Why are you shopping less at hypermarkets?
Do you think shopping in hypermarkets helps save
on food?
40%
23%
37%
Yes, hypermarkets offer a
good option to save on food
No, as prices are higher at
hypermarkets
No, because it leads to
inintended purchases
38%
7%
37%
18%
No, I have not changed the frequency of
my visits to hypermarkets and spend the
same share of my food budget there
No, I visit hypermarkets more often and
spend higher share of food budget there
Yes, I visit hypermarkets more rarely and
go to smaller format stores more often
Yes, I spend less in hypermarkets and
have increased spending in smaller
format stores
21%
12%
10%
15%
20%
22%
Prices are similar, but shopping at hypermarkets
takes much more time
The assortment at smaller stores is expanding; I
can find all I need there
I buy promo goods at convenience stores and
use hypermarkets for the rest
The number of convenience stores nearby grew,
so I shop at hypermarkets less frequently
I reduced purchases of goods that I used to buy
at hypermarkets due to the crisis
I visit hypermarkets less frequently to avoid
unnecessary spending

…but the number of hypermarkets is growing
Number of small food stores within walking distance
Excluding the public five, around 3 mln m2 of
selling space was added in 2015. The public five
added 2 mln m2 (for 24% growth versus 19% in
2014).
There are risks for large formats. The 162
hypermarkets added in 2015 may take longer to
mature.
We model 1.7 mln m2 of new space for non-
public-five retail in 2016 (60% of all space
introduced).
Source: Sberbank CIB Investment Research, Companies, Infoline
Hypermarkets selling space
0.8 1.0 1.1
0.6
0.8 0.90.2
0.3
0.3
2.6 2.1 1.9
0
1
2
3
4
5
Dec 2014 Dec 2015 Dec 2016
Magnit Pyaterochka Dixy Other
Selling space introduction: top five keep taking
market share from smaller players
Source: Companies, Sberbank CIB Investment Research
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E
Public five Modern retail (excl. top five)
We expect 1.7 mln m2 of new space to be added this
year retreating from the record 2 mln in 2015
4353
4800
5121
1491
1573
1520
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Dec 2014 Dec 2015 Dec 2016
Magnit Lenta O'Key Karusel Auchan Other (Auchan and Metro)
+18%

Source: Cint, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Source: Cint, Sberbank CIB Investment Research
Food spending is becoming more concentrated
Number of chains where typical Ivanov shops
The average number of chains visited fell to 2.2 in 2016 from 2.9 in 1H15 and 2.4 in 2H15,
suggesting shopping habits are normalizing.
Number of weekly shopping trips declined to 2.9 in comparison with pre-crisis 3.2 in 2H14.
Number of store visits per week
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
Magnit Pyaterochka Lenta O’Key Dixy Other
The number of chains that customers visited stabilized at 2.2 2.3
versus 2.6 on average in 2015.
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.7
3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
In 4Q16 people visited stores more rarely. The same
number of visited chains led to decline of number of
weekly visits per store.

Lower soft commodities prices should support margins
Breakdown of food retail turnover by category Cumulative food inflation by category, 2013-2016
FAO Cereals Price Index vs oil price
Domestic wheat price Russia, RUB/ton
Source: Bloomberg, FAO, Sberbank CIB Investment Research
0
30
60
90
120
150
0
60
120
180
240
300
’99
’00
’01
’02
’03
’04
’05
’06
’07
’08
’09
’10
’11
’12
’13
’14
’15
’16
FAO cereal price index Brent, $/bbl (rhs)
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1Q10
3Q10
1Q11
3Q11
1Q12
3Q12
1Q13
3Q13
1Q14
3Q14
1Q15
3Q15
1Q16
3Q16
The ruble wheat price has returned to 2H12 1H13 levels
and keeps falling
23%
7%
7%
4%
3%
2%2%7%
9%
6%
21%
9% Meat and meat products
Dairy
Bread
Oil
Cheese
Sugar
Eggs
Other
Fruits and vegetables
Fish
Alcohol
Confectionary goods
Grain is the
main COGS
component
for 45% of
food products
sold in Russia
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Sugar
Dairy
Sunfloweroil
Eggs
Pasta
Breadandpastries
Meatand
meatproducts
These products have risen substantially in price,
despite flat grain prices
Source: FAO, Sberbank CIB Investment ResearchSource: Bloomberg, FAO, Sberbank CIB Investment Research

Retailers’ pricing: promos got routine in 2015-2016
Source: Companies
Lenta offered eggs for R41 per ten
.and Magnit for 58-50
Karusel for R44-99

Promo-addiction slightly eased in 4Q16
The share of respondents seeing aggressive
promo in stores decreased from its peak level
of 37% in 4Q15 to 33% in 4Q16.
Share of respondents coming to store solely
for promo increased from 31% in 3Q16 to
33% now, but less then 37% a year ago.
76% will tolerate reduced promo.
Retailers’ promo offering and demand
Share of promo hunters among shoppers
What do you do when you see less promo in your
store
Source: Companies, State Statistics Service, Sberbank CIB Investment
Research
4%
34%
20%
24%
18%
Buy at a higher price, not trying to
find lower price
Don't pay attention
Turn to cheaper one, not trying to
find shop with lower price on
necessary goods
Try to find shop with lower price
on necessary goods, if hunt fails
turn to cheaper one
Try to find shop with lower price
on necessary goods, if hunt fails
purchase at a highr price
29% 29% 28%
24%
22%
27%
22%
28% 28%
25%
27%
23% 23%
24%
25%
26%
25%
21%
24%
23%
21%
15%
17%
19%
21%
23%
25%
27%
29%
31%
Pyaterochka Dixy Magnit
convenience
Lenta O’Key Magnit
hypermarket
Auchan
2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
Those who think that in grocery stores has become more offers
goods for promotions in the last 3 months.
Those who come to some grocery store with single goal to purchase
promo goods

Retailers are able to do price DIvestments
Massive price investments amid high food inflation in 1Q15 (shelf prices up 15% vs. official
rate of above 20%). Part of those are reverted now, with price increase outpacing the rest of
the market.
Given massive price advantage provided earlier, their value proposition remains compelling.
Ivanovs’ perception of food price growth across
the chains
Index of consumer perception of prices in food
retail chains
2.2
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.7
3.1
2.8
2.8
3.2
3.3
2.4
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.8
3.1
2.9
3.0
3.3
3.4
2.4
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.1
0
1
2
3
4
Auchan
Magnit
hypermarket
Lenta
Magnit
convenience
Pyaterochka
Other
Dixy
Metro
Karusel
O’Key
Victoria
Perekrestok
Dec ’15 Sep ’16 Dec ’16
Among public players, Magnit is the most attractive, moved Lenta to
second place.
LowHigh
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
Official food inflation
Rest of the market
Average Pyaterochka, Dixy, Magnit convinence

1,100
600
100
400
900
1,400
1,900
2,400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E
Net retail loans issued
decreased y o y in 2015,
for the first time since 2010
6%
8%
10%
12%
36%
38%
40%
42%
1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16
Food spending Savings (rhs)
Potential upside from consumer deleveraging
R850 bln retail loans were repaid in 2015
(equivalent to 3% of retail turnover), pulling
money away from consumption.
The share of incomes spent on debt servicing fell
below 11% from 13.3% in 2014.
R63 bln retail loans to be distributed in 2017, but
only an extra R20 bln will be directed to food
retail, as the savings ratio is increasing.
This underpins our 4.0% nominal food retail
growth forecast next year (0.4% decrease in real
terms).
Source: CBR, Sberbank CIB Investment Research
Net increase in retail loans issued (excl. mortgages),
R bln
Ivanovs’ food spending and savings ratios,
% of income
Debt service and repayments ratio, % of income
Source: CBR, Sberbank CIB Investment Research
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
1Q09
3Q09
1Q10
3Q10
1Q11
3Q11
1Q12
3Q12
1Q13
3Q13
1Q14
3Q14
1Q15
3Q15
1Q16E
3Q16E
Interest payments Debt servicing (principal)
The peak of debt servicing and
repayments passed in 2014

Real disposable income, GDP and food retail
turnover, y-o-y
Long-term growth outlook: food retail to track GDP expansion
Household consumption accounts for 57% of
GDP, while retail represents 33%; these
ratios are sticky.
In line with real disposable income decline of
0.5 -1%, food retail should decline by no
more than 1% as well as non-food in 2017.
The following increase should correspond to
5.7% and 6.0% CAGRs, respectively.
Macroeconomic forecasts, R bln
Source: Companies, State Statistics Service, Sberbank CIB Investment Research
15%
10%
5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
Food retail turnover GDP Real disposable income
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E CAGR 16 20E
GDP
Nomminal, RUB bln 55,800 61,811 71,055 79,200 83,233 85,881 90,370 94,925 99,709 104,734 5.1%
Russian GDP, % real growth 4.3% 3.4% 1.3% 0.8% 2.8% 0.2% 0.6% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Russian GDP, % nominal growth 24% 11% 15% 11% 5% 3% 5% 5% 5% 5%
Households' economics
Total wages, RUB bln 22,676 25,874 29,006 31,708 33,807 36,532 38,030 39,946 41,960 44,074
Households incomes, RUB bln 35,625 39,863 44,601 47,850 51,926 56,034 58,292 61,180 64,817 68,673 5.2%
Retail loans issued, RUB bln 1,124 1,698 1,915 480 1,036 313 63 255 199 137
Savings, RUB bln 4,748 5,745 6,506 6,075 6,782 7,426 7,777 8,187 8,665 9,170
Household consumption, RUB bln 27,193 31,019 34,672 42,037 43,263 43,830 45,185 47,462 49,854 52,367 4.5%
Household consumption as % of GDP 49% 50% 49% 53% 52% 51% 50% 50% 50% 50%
Key expenditure items
Food 9,099 9,961 11,143 12,381 13,408 13,710 14,242 14,948 15,836 16,779 5.2%
Food retail nominal growth, % 14% 9% 12% 11% 8% 2.3% 3.9% 5% 6% 6%
Food as % of household consumption 33% 32% 32% 29% 31% 31% 32% 31% 32% 32%
Non food 9,983 11,398 12,433 13,855 14,422 14,877 15,499 16,348 17,405 18,531 5.6%
Non Food retail nominal growth, % 18% 14% 9% 11% 4% 3% 4% 5% 6% 6%
Non Food as % of household consumption 37% 37% 36% 33% 33% 34% 34% 34% 35% 35%

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Oil and Gas
Senior Analyst Alex Fak +7 (495) 933 9829
Analyst Valery Nesterov +7 (495) 933 9832
Assistant Analyst Ilya Lyapustin +7 (495) 933 9840
Metals and Mining, Chemicals
Senior Analyst Irina Lapshina +7 (495) 933 9852
Analyst Anna Antonova, CFA +7 (495) 787 2390
Assistant Analyst Alexey Kirichok +7 (495) 933 9850
Financials
Senior Analyst Andrew Keeley +44 (20) 7936 0439
Analyst Andrey Pavlov-Rusinov +7 (495) 933 9817
Telecoms, Media and Internet
Senior Analyst Svetlana Sukhanova +7 (495) 933 9835
Assistant Analyst Maria Sukhanova +7 (495) 933 9856
Consumer
Senior Analyst Mikhail Krasnoperov +7 (495) 933 9838
Analyst Artur Galimov +7 (495) 933 9833

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